Twins Draft History: A .125 Hitter

The MLB draft is coming up next week and the sad part is, for many Twins fans, this could be the highlight of the season. The Twins are drafting second overall, meaning they should get a superstar player with their pick. Over the past few years, superstars such as Bryce Harper, Stephen Strasburg, Eric Hosmer, Buster Posey and Gerrit Cole have all gone in the top five picks. Big name players can be found at the top of the draft and a team can greatly improve (sometimes quickly) if they grab the right player.

For the Twins, that qualifier “if” has been the big problem when it comes to top draft picks. I thought it would be interesting to look back at the top draft picks from the Twins drafts throughout their history. Although the team has existed in Minnesota since 1961, they have only been bad enough to have a top five pick eight times. That being said, those eight picks have been…well…see for yourself:

1982 – 4^th Pick overall: Bryan Oelkers (Pitcher)

About the pick: Oelkers appeared in only 10 games for the Twins in 1983 before bouncing around the lower levels of the team. In 1986 he was dealt to Cleveland where he spent one more season before retiring.

Who They Missed: Dwight Gooden (5^th overall), Duane Ward (9^th), Barry Bonds (2^nd Round), Randy Johnson (4^th Round)

Who They Should Have Taken: Dwight Gooden, while Gooden developed character issues and made questionable decisions while with the Mets, he was still a very good pitcher – it’s possible the New York pressure contributed to the issues he had. Maybe with a smaller market, things would have been different for Gooden.

(While Bonds and Johnson are bigger names, they fell into the later rounds – meaning every team passed on them at least once, so you can’t knock the Twins for ‘missing’ them).

1983 – 1^st Pick Overall: Tim Belcher (Pitcher)

About The Pick: Belcher was actually a solid starting pitcher in the majors; the problem was – it wasn’t for the Twins. The team could not reach a contract agreement with their first round pick (they were not offering enough money, according to Belcher) and Belcher returned to college rather than taking the smaller contract. At least if you whiff on an early pick, that player still PLAYED for your organization. Not signing the overall number one pick was a large misstep for the Twins.

Who They Missed: Kurt Stillwell (2^nd), Roger Clemons (19^th)

Who They Should Have Taken: With the benefit of 20/20 hindsight, Clemons is the obvious star in an otherwise lackluster class

1987 – 3^rd Pick Overall: Willie Banks (Pitcher)

As far as picks go, Banks is far from the worst one the Twins have had. He made his first appearance with the Twins during their 1991 championship run and managed to work as a serviceable starter for the next two seasons. In 1993, Banks was dealt to the Cubs and the curse of the goat (or whatever hex the Cubs have) took over. Banks was never the same and bounced around with five other clubs until 2002.

Who They Missed: Jack McDowell (5^th), Kevin Appier (9^th), Craig Biggio (22^nd)

Who They Should Have Taken: McDowell, or even Mike Remlinger (16^th) would have been solid pitchers, Biggio would have been a franchise bat. Of that group, I’d say Biggio was the best option.

1991 – 3^rd Pick Overall: Dave McCarty (1B)

McCarty was drafted with the expectation of being a power slugging first base staple for the future. In his stints in the minors, McCarty looked to fit that part perfectly, slugging in top percentages of the league and showing the propensity for power.

McCarty can best be described as an AAAA (4A) player, however. Once McCarty hit the majors, the average and power simply did not translate. He barely hit above .200 in 167 games as a Twin and only pushed across three home runs. It’s not uncommon to see a player who simply doesn’t translate well to the major league level, but when it’s the third overall pick – it certainly is a disappointment.

Who They Missed: Dmitri Young (4^th – an ACTUAL power hitter), Manny Ramirez (14^th), Cliff Floyd (16^th – Once again, a power hitter and a firstbaseman to boot), Mike Sweeney (262^nd), Nomar Garciaparra (130^th)

Who They Should Have Taken: This draft hurts worse than most simply because of how badly the team missed. They wanted a power bat and they missed four of them. Cliff Floyd was the exact player they were looking for (power, 1B) and they missed.

1996 – 2^nd Pick Overall: Travis Lee (1B)

Once again, the Twins front office messed up this pick as much as possible. Just like they did in 1983, the Twins failed to sign Lee to a contract and ended up with nothing to show for the number two overall pick. While Lee never became a superstar, the fact the Twins walked away with nothing makes this one of the worst drafts in the team’s history.

Who They Missed: Eric Chavez (10^th), Jake Westbrook (21^st), Gil Meche (22^nd), Jimmy Rollins (46^th), Roy Oswalt (684^th),

Who They Should Have Taken: This is sort of a spotty draft class, with no real superstar to be found in the first round. So it’s not like the Twins failed to sign a pick while the next Ken Griffey Jr. sat waiting. However, when you fail to sign a pick at all, any player – even a simple, solid, everyday starter like the fellows above, are better options. Jimmy Rollins is the obvious “coulda-woulda-shoulda” but Eric Chavez is the more realistic pick.

1999 – 5^th Pick Overall: BJ Garbe (OF)

This is a big whiff. Garbe, selected out of high school, never made it any higher than AA ball in the Twins system. His average floated around .190 during three years in the Twins’ farm system before he retired from baseball.

Who They Missed: (Warning: This list hurts the most) Barry Zito (9^th), Ben Sheets (10^th), Alex Rios (19^th), Brian Roberts (50^th), Carl Crawford (52^nd), Brandon Phillips (57^th), Jake Peavy (472^nd) – ALBERT PUJOLS (402^nd)

Who They Should Have Taken: Okay, with 20/20 hindsight the obvious pick is Pujols, but given that he fell into the 13^th round – clearly every major league club had him ranked well below where he should have been. The realistic pick would have been either Zito or Sheets. Rios and Crawford would have filled the OF void that they drafted Garbe for and Roberts, Phillips and Peavy are franchise players who would have made a great impact on this team.

2000 – 2^nd Overall Pick: Adam Johnson (Pitcher)

Johnson pitched for the Twins from 2001 to 2005. His career ERA as 10.25. Enough said.

Who They Missed: Chase Utley (15^th), Cliff Lee (105^th),

Who They Should Have Taken: 2000 was a shallow draft with very little in the way of big stars. Utley is the best pick on the board in the early rounds and Lee is the best player – but when the draft is filled with role players, it’s hard to fault the Twins for “missing” at number 2.

2001 – 1^st Overall Pick: Joe Mauer

Mauer has won three batting titles, one AL MVP award and appeared in four All-Star games. He is the face of the Twins franchise and a superstar in Major League Baseball. While is pick was initially shunned by Twins fans (who thought they should take the fireball pitcher – Mark Prior) it’s clear that management got this one right.

Who They Missed: Mark Prior (2^nd – this is “missed” in a good way), Mark Teixeira (5^th),

Who They Should Have Taken: Joe Mauer – no exceptions

There are some interesting trends to point out here:

1)      The Twins picked third in each of the years they won the World Series

2)      The Twins have had high picks in bad classes (1983, 1996, 2000)

3)      They just missed Ken Griffey Jr, and Adrian Gonzalez (Drafted prior to their picks in 1993 and 2000)

4)      The 2^nd overall pick has not been kind to the Twins

5)      The Twins pick 2^nd this year

History is not on the Twins’ side when it comes to high draft picks. (Essentially they're 1 for 8, or .125 in terms of BA). Fans can take solace in the fact that a) the last high draft pick the Twins had turned out to be a good one and b) the team doesn’t pick high that often (meaning they usually are good).

Time will tell if the Twins’ number two pick in the 2012 draft is the move that help start another winning tradition or a pick that will live with the seven other “flops” listed above.

Last Night Was Ugly, Then Willingham Made It Awesome

Full disclosure, I didn’t make it all the way through last night’s 3-2 win over the A’s. I am a huge baseball fan and I can sit through just about any game no matter the situation and score and still be entertained. Last night’s game, however, was hard to stomach.

Cole De Vries took to the mound last night and looked much like he did last week in Chicago – effectively wild and slightly indecisive. De Vries was able to work ahead early in the count, frequently putting the A’s in a 0-2 hole. Then De Vries started to nibble around the zone, seemingly hoping the Oakland hitters would get themselves out. The result was an outing that looked good on paper – 5 IP, 2 H, 0 ER – up until you see the 5 BB. Leave it to the Twins’ starting staff to refuse to throw strikes to the team with the lowest batting average in the American League.

The offense decided to have an off night as well. While the Twins were getting runners on base, they simply could not advance them all the way home. The result was a scoreless snoozer of a game going into the 7^th inning. When the A’s pushed across the go ahead run on a feeble ground ball to left field, I switched the TV off and kept an eye on the game via the MLB At-Bat app. When the A’s stretched their lead to 2-0 in the 8^th, I turned off the app and resigned myself to another Twins loss.

Funny thing happened after that though – the Twins started to put something together. Carroll singled, Span walked – Revere had an ugly bunt pop-out that failed to advance the runners (Ben, you’re a young, fast, contact hitter with the tendency to put the ball on the ground in big spots – you better learn how to bunt if you want to see major playing time). Mauer hit into a force out, advancing the Carroll to third but also putting the second out on the board.

Then, up came Willingham. In one powerful swing of the bat – the anemic offensive effort and the game were over.

It just goes to show that no game is over until the scoreboard says so. You’ll forgive me (and the Twins fans at the game) who gave up on this team in the 7^th, however. We’ve all been here too many times before; a winnable game falls apart because the offense can’t back up a solid outing from the starting staff / bullpen. Faced with watching the Twins lose for the 33^rd time in 49 games, many fans chose to do something (anything) else.

In the end, it was a nice win for the Twins who previously had failed to come from behind after they were trailing in the 8^th inning or later (0-28 on the season when they entered the 8^th trailing). It was a nice at bat for Willingham, who had looked very poor in his previous at bats. It will take a lot more of these wins (15 straight would be a nice start) to get the excitement back for this current season, but in a year where the Twins look like they could easily lose 100 games, a walk off win will always be appreciated.

The Twins Are Who We Thought They Were

The general consensus when it comes to baseball teams and their early season success or failure is that you cannot judge until the Memorial Day weekend. Prior to that, it’s simply too early to tell if a team is legitimately good (as the Washington Nationals appear to be) or overachieving (as the New York Mets are expected to be). Alternatively, it’s too early to tell if a team is simply off to a slow start (Los Angeles Angels) or if they are simply a legitimately bad team (Minnesota Twins).

Yes, now that the Memorial Day holiday is safely behind us, we can finally begin to own up to the fact that most fans have already arrived at – this team stinks. At 16-32, we can form a fairly good idea of what this team is – the short version is simple. The 2012 Minnesota Twins are an adequate offensive team with an aging, injury prone first baseman, a patchwork outfield of a current star (Span) future star (Revere) and a rental bat (Willingham), a broken and spotty infield (The good: Dozier, The Bad: Casilla, The Rental: Carroll, The Ugly: Plouffe at 3^rd) and a superstar catcher who will never appease the fans unless he gives back a large portion of his massive (DESERVED!!!) contract.

The funny thing is – this rag tag bunch of misfits is probably good enough to push across 75 to 85 wins. The true problem with the 2012 Minnesota Twins lies in the pitching staff. From the rotation to bullpen, this pitching staff is simply horrid. Take a look at the opening day staff:

Carl Pavano: 2-4, 5.46 ERA (Sadly, this is the pinnacle of the opening day staff)

Anthony Swarzak: 0-4, 5.75 ERA – Demoted to bullpen after 3 bad starts

Liam Hendriks: 0-2, 9.00 ERA – Started strong, fell apart after 2 starts, demoted to AAA

Nick Blackburn: 1-4, 8.37 ERA – “Injured” frequently, utterly hittable

Francisco Liriano: 0-5, 8.47 ERA – Demoted to bullpen where he continued to be horrid

Matt Maloney: DFA’d, now in Rochester

Jeff Gray: 3-0, 4.35 ERA – Spotty reliever, has his moments (both good and bad)

Alex Burnett: 2-0, 2.84 ERA – Much improved from 2011, a rare bright spot

Jared Burton: 0-0, 4.34 ERA – Started 2012 unhittable, has come back to Earth recently

Brain Duensing: 0-2, 2.92 ERA – Solid long relief out of the ‘pen, has had breakdowns

Glen Perkins: 0-1, 3.60 ERA – The nice bright spot of the bullpen

Matt Capps: 0-3, 3.79 ERA – Exactly what we expected him to be

That paints the picture pretty well. Of the five opening day starters, none (0!) of them have an ERA below 5 (!). Three had an ERA above 8 – that is unbelievably bad.

While the team has fixed the starter problem slightly with Scott Diamond, who has been a solid starter with a 3-1, 2.27 ERA in 5 starts and PJ Walters 2-1 2.96 ERA in 4 starts, the fact remains that Blackburn, Pavano and Liriano are still going to be taking the mound regularly this season. With that starting rotation, we can expect the team to be exactly what they are right now – bad.

PJ Shuts Down The South Side

Last night's 9-1 Twins win is the perfect example of how box scores do not tell the entire story of a game. If you didn't watch last night's dominate win, you could simply look at the box score and see PJ Walters' incredible stat line: Complete game, 2 earned runs, 5 hits, 2 walks, 8 strikeouts - and think that Walters was lights out all night.

If you watched last night's game, you'd know that Walters looked erratic at times and even downright sloppy during the middle innings. At or around the 4th inning, Twins fans watching the game had to be wondering just how well that 8 run lead was going to hold if Walters continued to struggle with his location.

That being said, Walters was "effectively erratic" while his fastball seemed to have a mind of its own in the middle innings, Walters leaned heavily on his breaking pitches. He compensated for early mistakes (the leadoff batter reached for three straight innings in the 4th, 5th and 6th) with ground balls to induce double plays.

Moving into the 7th inning, Walters discovered his fastball again and then turned into a strikeout machine. He stuck out the side in the 8th and at one point had 4 consecutive k's on the scoreboard.

Lots of credit goes to Joe Mauer, PJ Walters and Pitching Coach Rick Anderson for continuing to work with the fastball, even after it looked like Walters did have it last night. The end result was a great performance and the Twins' first complete game this season.


Bright Future For Walters? 

Walters is one of those "where did he come from" MLB pitchers that pop up every year on the major league stage. A journeyman for most of his career, Walters was always viewed as a 'good but not great' pitcher who had a tendency to walk too many batters. Walters moved through the Cardinals and Blue Jays system before being picked up by the Twins last offseason. In AAA Rochester, he started to show flashes of something more. His walks went down and strikeouts went up. Suddenly, Walters looks like a diamond in the rough and the Twins look brilliant for signing him this offseason.

Twins fans shouldn't expect these outings every week from Walters, however. He still has a tendency to leave pitches over the heart of the plate (that's why 5 of his 7 earned runs are solo home runs) and his control can ebb and flow during a game. However, when your fastball touches 92 and your breaking pitches drop as low as 75, you're going to have decent success. For much of last night, Walters had the White Sox swinging wildly at breaking pitches that took wicked turns before breaking the plate. If he can continue to command those pitches that well, he'll find major league success.


Swarzak Gets Another Shot 

The Twins announced yesterday that Carl Pavano's next start will be pushed back a day or two due to shoulder soreness. He's likely to get a cortisone shot and work some longer bullpen sessions until he feels like his arm is back to 100%. In his place, Anthony Swarzak will be getting a spot start. We theorized yesterday that he could be on the short list for a pitching promotion. If he pitches well, he just might earn another shot at the rotation.

Good Offensive Outing 

Last night, the Twins offense continued a recent trend of hitting with runners in scoring position. LOB was a stat that plagued the Twins offense for much of the start of the season, however, over the past week, Twins batters are finally delivering in clutch situations. Josh Willingham and Justin Morneau had the biggest hits of the night, as their two out at bats put the game out of reach. Jamey Carroll, Alexi Casilla and Denard Span also had nice at bats throughout the game as well. Even though Ben Revere and Brian Dozier struggled last night, the rest of the offense stepped up to carry the load.


Things Are Looking Up 

The Twins have now won 5 of their last 6 games and have looked like the competitive team we all thought they could be at the start of the season. The offense is hitting well in the clutch, the pitching staff is finally keeping the team in the game (mainly due to the fact that the pitching staff as it is currently constructed: Diamond, Walters, DeVries, Swarzak, Pavano - has only 1 of the opening day starters left) and the defense has continued to be a surprising bright spot.

In a very bad AL Central, this Twins team has the ability to compete. Even if this nice win streak is just an illusion and the team does settle back into .500 baseball the rest of the season, at least Twins fans can take solace in the fact that the team is no longer the worst in baseball. With their loss last night, the Cubs now hold that title by 1/2 game. The Twins are now tied with the Padres at 15-27 and are only a few games behind the Brewers in W/L as well. If we can't take anything else from this season, at least we as fans can say we weren't the worst team on the field.

Twins DFA Marquis - Who Fills In?

Yesterday, I wondered what the Twins were going to do with the struggling Jason Marquis. Late last night, the Twins answered my questions by announcing that the veteran starter had been designated for assignment by the club. The Twins now have 10 days to try to trade Marquis or attempt to pass him through waivers. If he clears waivers, the team can assign him to AAA Rochester.

It doesn’t appear that is going to happen, however. If (or, essentially when) Marquis clears waivers the Twins are expected to give Marquis his outright release. It’s a disappointing end for Marquis to say the least. It would be a large understatement to say that Marquis was a failed signing by the Twins this offseason.

The team avoided chasing the more expensive free agent pitchers, leaving last season’s sub-par pitching staff largely intact. The one answer the team did pursue, much to the fan’s dismay, was Jason Marquis. At $3 million for one year, Marquis was viewed as a solid stop gap replacement that would be able to eat innings at the back of the rotation. At his best, the Twins hoped to get a “Pavano-like” effort from Marquis (innings eater, 3.5-4.0 ERA)  at his worst the Twins expected the Jason Marquis of the past few years (higher ERA, but reliable every 5^th day starter).

What the Twins did get was completely unexpected. Marquis made 7 starts for the Twins, posting an 8.47 ERA and a 2-4 win/loss record. Over his past 3 starts, Marquis has looked abysmal. Ron Gardenhire and the Twins front office preached patience with Marquis, hoping they could find what was wrong with his approach. Nothing seemed to work, however, and finally the Twins decided to cut their losses and jettison Marquis from the roster.

Marquis joins Luke Hughes, Sean Burroughs, Matt Maloney and Clete Thomas on the players DFA’d by the Twins this season. (A good indicator of a poor year is the number of players kicked off of your roster prior to June).  

What’s Next?

The Twins do have some options available for Marquis’ replacement, including players already on the MLB roster as well as AAA options. Let’s evaluate the pros and cons of the most likely options:

In order from most likely to least likely:

Cole DeVries: DeVries is currently pitching in AAA Rochester and is the most likely candidate for promotion. While he hasn’t been posting the numbers that Scott Diamond or PJ Walters were in Rochester (1-4, 4.24 ERA) he has shown the ability to strike out batters (37 over 46.2 innings) which is more than can be said of Marquis.

Jeff Manship: Manship is currently being utilized as a long reliever in Rochester, but his past few outings seem to point to the Twins stretching him out for starting work. (He has pitched 4 innings, 5 innings, and 7 innings over his past three appearances). Manship is 3-1 with a 3.51 ERA and has struck out 25 batters in 38 innings. If he doesn’t get a call-up for the White Sox series, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him take the place of another struggling pitcher (Jeff Gray, Alex Burnett) within the next few weeks.

Anthony Swarzak: Since moving to the bullpen, Swarzak has looked like a much better pitcher. He is allowing fewer fly balls, letting fewer batters reach base and seems to have better control over his pitches. This could indicate that Swarzak is ready for a return to the starting rotation or that Swarzak is simply more comfortable as a long reliever. I’d wager the second option to be true. I think the Twins know what they have with Swarzak, he is a great situational pitcher who can take the mound for long stretches if needed, but he’s not cut out to be a starter. With his success at long relief, I don’t think the Twins will promote him.

Liam Hendriks: Hendriks started the season as the Twins third pitcher and looked like he was going to be an early surprise with strong outings against Baltimore and Texas. Shortly after that, however, things began to fall apart for Hendriks. He started leaving pitches up and was absolutely shelled against Boston and Los Angeles. Hendriks looks to be one year away from being major league ready. I would wager the Twins will let him stay most of the year in Rochester to better work on his pitches. He’ll be a starter for the Twins next season, but he’s not ready for the spotlight again just yet.

Francisco Liriano: Had Liriano responded to his demotion by being absolutely lights out and dominate from the bullpen, there is little doubt in my mind he would be moving into the void Marquis is leaving in the rotation. Instead, Liriano has continued to look shaky and unreliable, struggling with location, walking too many batters and looking all around “off”. Liriano is relegated to bullpen duty until he can fix what ails him, no matter how big the need for starting pitching is for the Twins. At this point, I think the team is really only interested in building value for the one time ace. He’s a free agent at the end of the year and I have little faith in the Twins trying to bring him back. As such, they’ll try to move him for something at the deadline – the value of that “something” is entirely dependant on how well Liriano pitches from the bullpen.

Sentiment from Twins reporters and beat writers is that the team will likely call up DeVries and see if the magic of AAA pitching can continue. If I were running the show, I think I’d give Jeff Manship a call first and let him have another crack at starting.

Regardless of my opinion, we’ll find out sometime today or tomorrow what move the Twins are going to make to fill in for Marquis. Hopefully the promoted pitcher will follow the precedent set by Diamond and Walters and help this team put together another nice win streak.

Twins look really good - before looking REALLY bad

First and foremost, my apologies for the utter silence on these pages over the past few days, my sister was graduating from high school and I was away from the computer for the past five days.

While I was away, the Twins had themselves a nice little win streak. For the first time this season, the Twins won 4 games in a row, beating Detroit twice and taking two of three from the Brewers in Milwaukee.

The Good:

Things started looking up on Wednesday in Detroit. Nick Blackburn took to the mound for the Twins and continued to look absolutely inept, giving up 6 runs over 2 innings. Thankfully, the bullpen did a great job in cleanup duty, holding the Tigers to 1 more run while the offense continued to swing the big stick. The Twins took game one in Detroit 11-7.

***

Thursday afternoon, new call-up PJ Walters showed that his strong start against the Blue Jays last week was not an anomaly as he held the Tigers offense in check over 6.1 innings. Walters only surrendered 4 hits (unfortunately, 3 of those 4 were for home runs). Walters walked 3 and only struck out 2, but he managed to do exactly what the Twins needed him to do. Keep the ball in play and keep the game in control.

Walters was aided by Justin Morneau’s hot bat (and the Tigers bad defense, who committed 7 errors over the 2 game series) in route to a 4-3 Twins win.

***

The Twins took their two game win streak into Milwaukee on Friday night to face the Brewers, who have struggled just as much as the Twins early on this season. Scott Diamond showed once again that he is the Twins’ best pitcher as he threw another solid outing. Diamond did surrender his first runs of the season, giving up 3 earned over 5.1 innings. Diamond allowed 8 hits and walked 1 batter while striking out 3.

Diamond’s outing was still great by Twins starters’ standards and was made even better by the offensive explosion that Denard Span (4/5, 3 runs, 3 RBI) Joe Mauer (3/5, 2 runs, 3 RBI) Josh Willingham (2/5, 1 run, 2 RBI) and Justin Morneau (2/4, 1 run, 3 RBI) delivered. The Twins pummeled the Brewers 11-3 and had their first 3 game win streak of the season.

***

I don’t want to be guilty of over sensationalizing any one game, but Saturday’s 5-4 win in extra innings may have been the best all around game the Twins have put together this season.

Carl Pavano took to the mound and looked to be cured of whatever issue was ailing him over his past two starts and finally returned to the reliable innings eater the Twins needed. Pavano went 6 innings, yielding only 2 runs and 5 hits while walking only 1 and striking out 6.

The offense struggled to capitalize on a few opportunities throughout the game, but managed to do just enough to back up Pavano’s strong start. When the game went into extra innings, the pitching picked up the slack for long enough to allow Trevor Plouffe (who is currently operating on the ‘hit it out or go sit down’ mantra that Morneau seems to be using this season) jacked one over the left / center fence and into the Brewers’ bullpen. Matt Capps pitched a solid 3 up, 3 down 1lth and the Twins extended the streak to 4.

The Bad:

Riding a 4 game win streak and looking like they finally have things figured out, the Twins sent Jason Marquis to the mound on Sunday.

He was promptly blown up by the Brewers’ bats. Marquis lasted only 1.2 innings but still managed to surrender 8 runs, 8 hits and 1 walk.

The pitching staff as a whole looked horrendous on Sunday as Anthony Swarzak gave up an additional 2 runs over 2.1 innings, Alex Burnett added 1 more earned run over 2 innings but the real dud of the bullpen was Jeff Gray who didn’t manage to record an out but still gave up 4 hits and 5 earned runs (that’s hard to do).

The best arm from the ‘pen on Sunday was actually Drew Butera, who channeled his inner Michael Cuddyer and took to the mound in the 8^th inning of the blowout. Funny thing – Butera threw one strong inning (consistently hitting 90-94 MPH on the gun) and held the Brewers hitless (and he even struck out a batter!).

Alas, Butera’s Cy Young quality effort was not enough and the Twins took an embarrassing loss, 16-4.

Trending Up:

I have to be fair to Drew Butera, who I like personally but not so much professionally – he has earned his spot on this roster so far this season. Last season, many Twins fans remember Butera hitting for a lower average than most National League pitchers and (rightly) expected that sort of offensive output from him in 2012. Butera has looked much, much better than expected, however, hitting .360 with a .429 OBP in his first 9 games.

Butera appeared in 4 of the last 5 games, collectively going 6/10 with 3 doubles (3!) and earning two walks. For the backup catcher, that’s a pretty good showing. Heck, for a starter, that’s a good showing. Butera will likely settle back into a lower average as the season wears on, but if he can keep his average in the .200s rather than .100s, he’ll have earned back a great deal of respect from Twins fans.

Last week, I was wondering if Trevor Plouffe had played his way off of the roster as he continued to struggle at the plate. I did note that a complete lack of at bats was hurting Plouffe, however. The Twins responded by giving Plouffe playing time (oddly in RF, a position that, with 3 other OFs on the bench, didn’t look like Plouffe would see again).

Plouffe appeared in all 5 games over the weekend and only managed to go 4/19. Funny thing is, when 3 of those 4 hits are home runs (driving in 4 RBI) you get to keep getting hacks at the plate. Plouffe needs to improve his hitting, but if he can continue to make up for strikeouts and balls hit right at defenders with monster home runs, the Twins will certainly keep giving him a chance. With his ability to play nearly every position on the field and his natural power at the plate, there is no way he would make it through the waiver process to be sent down to the minors. So Twins fans (and the Twins front office) should hope Plouffe continues to get opportunities to get his average to a more respectable point.

Trending Down:

What are the Twins going to do with Jason Marquis? After getting obliterated Sunday, Marquis’ record fell to 2-4 and his ERA swelled to Francisco Liriano-esque 8.47. Marquis has not looked good over his past 3 starts, but his last two were especially horrendous. I said last week that he simply looks like a pitcher who does not have elite stuff any longer and he is continuing to support that theory with each bad outing.

With the success of Scott Diamond and PJ Walters, the Twins may be willing to give another young arm a shot at the starting rotation. Rochester is not lacking in decent arms to send up and Marquis has shown very little that could compel the Twins to keep him on the roster.

The obvious hope is that Marquis will turn things around and build trade value for himself by July, but his horrid pitching may make a roster move a necessity prior to that trading deadline. I’d imagine Marquis will get one last shot at the starting rotation when the Twins take on the Tigers on Friday. If he gets blown up again, I’d suspect the Twins and Marquis would simply part ways and Cole Devries or another AAA arm would get the call to the big leagues.

When your ERA is so bloated that an 8.47 ERA can be easily compared to it, there’s an issue. Francisco Liriano, the ace of the staff during spring training and the expected key to the starting staff this season has been abysmal in 2012 – so bad that he lost his starting spot to PJ Walters and was demoted to bullpen duty. In Friday’s blowout of the Brewers, Liriano was sent out in the 9^th inning to mop up - earn 3 outs and send the team home.

Even with an 8 run lead, Liriano labored through the 9^th, allowing 2 hits and walking one more batter before finally closing out the game. Dick & Bert on the FSN telecast were quick to point out that Liriano’s mechanics continue to look terrible. He’s flying open on many of his pitches resulting in him facing LF at the end of his delivery. His mechanics are so distorted and convoluted that he can’t keep control of his pitches.

Maybe Liriano simply doesn’t have the work ethic to fix what’s wrong. Maybe Pitching Coach Rick Anderson cannot coach Liriano well enough to fix these issues; maybe Liriano simply forgets the basics when he takes the mound. Whatever the reason – Francisco Liriano will not be the pitcher the Twins need him to be until he fixes the obvious mechanical flaws with his game.

At this pace, I don’t see Liriano making a return to the starting rotation this season. At best, maybe Liriano looks reliable as a reliever and the Twins can move him at the trade deadline for a low level prospect or two. At this point, a change of scenery may be the best thing for both team and player.

Twins Win! (Woo) Doumit Goes Down (Boo)

It was only one win. In the grand scheme of things, the Twins are still 11-26, 15 games under .500 and at the bottom of the weakest division in baseball. Big picture, last night’s 11-7 victory of the pre-season favorite Detroit Tigers is little more than a blip on the radar.

With that being said, last night’s win felt great. One day after looking their absolute worst against Cleveland, the Twins turned things around and looked absolutely frightening (offensively) as they hit well with runners in scoring position and even saw some slumping players (Drew Butera, Trevor Plouffe, Jamey Carroll) have very good at bats.

It wasn’t all sunshine and rainbows, however, as Nick Blackburn gave his shortest outing of the season. Blackburn labored through 2 innings, yielding 6 earned runs, 6 hits, 2 walks and struck out 2. After the game, manager Ron Gardenhire said that Blackburn was fighting through “thigh problems” and that he would be evaluated today. Blackburn claimed that the pain felt like he was “stabbed in the leg with a knife”.

If that’s the case, it’s highly likely Blackburn will need some time on the DL – with the way he has been pitching lately, that isn’t necessarily a bad thing. Anthony Swarzak could step in from the bullpen to take his starting spot or the Twins could call up Cole Devries from AAA and give yet another young arm a shot at the starting rotation. We’ll likely find out today the severity of Blackburn’s injury, but I’d wager the Twins are going to stay cautious with Blackburn, given his less than stellar performances so far this season.

Doumit Goes Down

In a potential big blow to the Twins offense, their hottest hitter Ryan Doumit left Wednesday’s game with a pulled calf muscle. The Twins immediately placed Doumit on the 15 day DL and called up Ben Revere from AAA Rochester (more on that in a minute).

Doumit started 2012 slow, but over his last 14 days he hit .380 OBP, .600 SLG, with 4 HR and he leads the Twins in RBI. His bat will certainly be missed from the lineup. If early reports from Twins beat writers are to be believed, this could be an injury that sidelines Doumit for much longer than 15 days.

Revere Called Up – What Is The Plan Here?

Let me start this by saying that I think Ben Revere certainly deserved his call-up from AAA. He had been hitting.322 at Rochester and has shown great plate discipline and base running intelligence this season. Revere, although young, does deserve a chance to become an everyday major league player.

Even so…what exactly is the plan here Twins? With the promotion of Revere, the Twins now have Erik Komatsu, Darin Mastroianni, Ben Revere and Denard Span all on the roster. You can only start two of them (Willingham is entrenched in LF) and Span isn’t going to give up CF unless he needs a day off, so three speedy, hit for average batters that play good defense have to sit on the bench.

Komatsu and Mastroianni have played well during their brief time with the Twins. Both have done exactly what the team needed – be a smart batter with solid defense and good speed on the base path. Unless Denard Span is due for the DL (possible, he was a late scratch last night with an undisclosed injury) then carrying Komatsu, Mastroianni and Revere makes little sense – especially given the complete lack of infield depth.

Mastroianni can play 2B and was spending some time at 1B while in AAA, so there is always the possibility that the Twins will play him in the infield more often now that Revere has been promoted.

With the changes, I’d estimate that the day to day starting lineup would look one of two ways:

1)

C: Mauer

1B: Morneau

2B: Casilla

SS: Dozier

3B: Carroll

LF: Komatsu / Revere / Mastroianni

CF: Span

RF: Revere / Komatsu / Mastroianni

DH: Willingham

Bench: Plouffe, Mastroianni, Butera

2)

C: Butera

1B: Mauer / Morneau

2B: Carroll / Mastroianni

SS: Dozier

3B: Plouffe

LF: Willingham

CF: Span

RF: Revere / Komatsu / Mastroianni

DH: Mauer / Morenau

Bench: Casilla, Komatsu, Mastroianni

Defensively, this is not at all a bad roster. Offensively – well… time will tell. Players like Revere, Komatsu, Mauer, Morneau and Mastroianni need to step up and carry the load while Doumit is out.

Future Moves:

With the potential Blackburn injury and Jason Marquis’ inability to find the plate – the Twins may be looking to make a few more pitching related moves over the next week. If Blackburn were to hit the DL for any length of time I would wager the Twins would call up Cole Devries to take over his starting spot. Devries has pitched well in AAA this season and with the success of Scott Diamond and PJ Walters as precedent – the Twins could be willing to let another young arm have a shot at starting.

Jason Marquis is an interesting dilemma. Over the past few days, I’ve heard rumblings from Twins writers regarding a possible ‘change of scenery’ for Marquis. With his poor outings over the last 3 starts, it’s beginning to look like Jason simply doesn’t have elite ‘stuff’ any more. Marquis could be designated for assignment (unlikely given his veteran status) or simply released (more likely). In that case, the Twins would probably call on Anthony Swarzak to move into Marquis’ spot and promote a long reliever from AAA. Either Jeff Manship or Anthony Slama could easily be promoted to the major league roster given their performances this season.

At this point, I’d be happy to see the Twins shakeup their starting pitching as much as possible. I know the Twins are not going to release Pavano, but if I were the Twins front office, I’d be letting the idea of a trade float out there and see what the team could get in return.

As I’ve said many times before, this is a team in transition. It will be getting much younger over the next two seasons, at nearly every position – including starting rotation. With little to play for this season, I’m all for giving the young guys a shot this year to better judge what the roster can and will look like in 2013.

Cheering For Capps?

Had last night’s loss not pushed the Twins to 10-25, I would be willing to come into today’s post speaking optimistically about strong starting pitching and about promising turns for batter like Doumit, Dozier and Mastroianni.

But, the team is 10-25, 15 games below .500 and 9 games out of first place in a very weak division. Trying to put a positive spin on yet another loss would be like polishing a turd. Yes, you can do it – but who the heck wants it after it’s done?

Why Not Shut Pavano Down?

After the game, Carl Pavano noted that his velocity was up slightly from his last two starts. His fast ball was hitting 87 with regularity and even touched 89 on a couple of occasions.

That being said, those watching Pavano last night could see that something wasn’t quite “right”. In fact, something hasn’t been quite “right” with Pavano’s pitching since the New York series. His last 4 starts have seen him lacking solid location and giving up way too many runs. Last night’s 4 earned run outing was deemed “promising” by the Twins coaching staff but I’d argue that it was unnecessary. If the injury really is only an inflammation, why not let Pavano miss one start and heal instead of throwing him out there at 80% efficiency? This was a winnable game with a starting pitcher who didn’t “fall apart” in the middle innings. If Pavano is 100%, I have a feeling that this game takes on a completely different outcome.

Pulling For Capps

(Chalk that line up in the category of “Things I never thought I would type”)

Last night, as Matt Capps trudged out to the mound for the top of the 9^th in a tied game, Twins Territory collectively held their breath. It’s almost instinctive at this point in time. As soon as Capps takes to the mound, no matter the lead or the situation, fans are prepared to watch it disappear. This is largely due to Capps’ horrible performance in 2011 where it seemed like he gave away as many games as he saved. When the Twins front office decided to bring Capps back for another try this season, the fans collectively swore in frustration.

Capps is associated (unfairly) with the downfall of the Twins. While he was responsible for coughing away many leads in 2011, the truth is that team wasn’t very good anyway. It reaches beyond the bad 2011 outing, however, and into the deeper psyches of Twins fans. Capps is forever linked to the collapse of the Twins organization in the form of a horrible trade that sent solid prospect (now everyday starter – until his injury) Wilson Ramos to the Nationals. (Subsequently, this trade has allowed Drew Butera to be the team’s emergency backup…talk about a downgrade…)

Is it Capps’ fault that he was part of this trade? No, of course not. Is it Capps’ fault the Twins traded away Matt Garza, Jason Bartlett, Johan Santana and JJ Hardy and all they received in return was Delmon Young and a bunch of mid level prospects who didn’t pan out. Nope, Capps’ wasn’t involved in that at all. He’s simply the unfortunate face that has to be associated with the decline of a once strong franchise.

That being said, I’m not a fan of Matt Capps. (Before you call out hypocrisy – just know that I don’t hate him for any other reason beyond his ability to pitch). Simply put, I don’t think he has the ability to be a shutdown closer. He seems to struggle in high pressure situations, he tends to leave pitches up and over the plate (bad at any time, especially when you’re protecting a lead) – frankly, I don’t trust him to act with the game on the line.

Now, with both sides of the argument presented – I’m here to say that Twins fans should be cheering like crazy for Matt Capps to do well this season. Why? Trade value. Take a look around the majors. Closers are dropping like flies. From ineffective outings to injuries, closers are on rotation in Toronto, Los Angeles (both teams), San Diego, Chicago, New York, Boston, Tamp Bay – a multitude of teams have either swapped closers due to injury or just plain ol’ ineptitude.

Perfect.

If Capps can continue to pitch well this season (or until the trade deadline) the Twins may find themselves in a position of power. Teams could be desperate for a closer and the struggling Twins have one who has been excelling. Suddenly the player that Twins Territory cannot stand, the player that is associated with a horrible trade becomes a hero – when he’s traded away. If the Twins can swing Capps to a contending team for some minor league (AAA) pitching, doesn’t that make things a whole lot easier to swallow?

Capps is gone, the team gets deeper (where they need it) and continue to stack their roster for the next two years. It’s a Twins fan's dream come true. That’s why we need to be pulling for Capps Twins fans, his success might yield a payoff in July.

Also on that list of “valuable in July” players are:

Jamey Carroll – To a team that needs bench depth or that lost a starter to injury

Justin Morneau  - AL Team that needs a bat to DH (Yankees, Rays, Orioles, Angels)

Josh Willingham  - NL Team that needs a power bat, AL in need of a DH

Ryan Doumit  - See Willingham, also replaces an injured catcher (Nationals)

Carl Pavano – Pitching depth (Yankees, Rangers, Angels, Dodgers, Nationals)

Jason Marquis  - Pitching depth (Same teams)

If any of the above guys can get some momentum going into the trade deadline, they become immensely valuable assets for the Twins. (Span is on that list too – I don’t want to see him traded. If I ignore it, it will go away…right?)

It’s hard to look at your favorite team and think about auctioning away players, but as fans we have to be willing to admit when your team is not ready to contend. The Twins are not ready to contend. 2013 will see them improve and by 2014, they could be scary good. There’s no sense hanging on to older players today when then can be converted into the missing parts for a title run in two years.

It’s that reasoning that has me saying (for the first time ever) Go Capps.