Breaking news: the Minnesota Twins’ starting pitching stinks. Okay, this three year issue likely isn’t breaking news anymore, but the point remains that the team has very little in the way of elite talent toeing the rubber this season. With their less than consistent offense of the past two seasons, poor starting pitching has been the final nail in the coffin, dooming the team to consecutive 90 loss seasons (pending a massive change in fortune, the team is heading towards their third straight 90 loss season).
With a payroll clocking in between $40 and $50 million next season (pending arbitration and player options) the Twins are certainly going to have room to make some moves to improve the rotation. The problem is, the free agent pitching market is extremely thin, with the elite pitchers having already been signed to extensions or holding team options for 2014.
That doesn’t change the fact that the only starter essentially guaranteed a spot in the rotation for 2014 is Kevin Correia, and that’s due in large part to his two year, $10 million contract, not his ability to get batters out.
The team has internal options, including Vance Worley, Scott Diamond, Liam Hendriks, Andrew Albers, Samuel Deduno and Kyle Gibson, but they would be foolish to try to roll out a combination of those players (again) and expect different results.
The team needs help, and there just isn’t much to be found.
Or, so we think.
I’m arguing that there IS help out there, it’s just not as obvious, nor as glamorous as we’d all like it to be. My plan includes taking some risks, but with the team unlikely to contend in 2014 (I expect they’ll improve, especially if they let the young guys take over in July) there is really no harm in low risk, high reward signings.
So, how should the Twins rebuild their rotation? Here’s how I would start:
- Sign Shaun Marcum to a 1 year, $3 Million deal
Marcum was a popular target for Twins fans and bloggers last season as his 3.88 career ERA and 1.234 career WHIP projected well for the pitcher friendly target field. Marcum was coming off an injury shortned season and was available for a low price. The Mets ended up acquiring Marcum for next to nothing ($4 million) and while it didn’t pan out (Marcum’s injury wasn’t entirely healed and he was shut down only a few starts into his season) they took a worthwhile risk on the righty.
The Twins could offer Marcum an incentive heavy contract with a low base salary in the $3 to $3.5 million range. Yes, Marcum’s injury history is a concern, but if Marcum can come back healthy, he has the potential to be a very solid #2 or #3 starter. The Twins took a similar risk on Jared Burton, whose injury shortened seasons with Cincinnati allowed him to be signed to a minor league deal – now look what the Twins have – a dominant 8th inning righty for pennies on the dollar. A healthy Marcum is a huge upgrade, the Twins need to make that gamble.
- Sign Johan Santana to a “Rich Harden” deal
Yes, THAT Johan Santana. The former Twins ace is in the last year of his 6 year deal with the Mets and will not be retained by the team, making him a free agent for the first time in his career. He has had two injury plagued seasons with New York, resulting in a poor 2012 and a non existent 2013.
Santana cannot expected to be the ace he was while he was in Minnesota, he’s clocked over 2,000 innings on his arm, after all; but he is a left hander with a great change up – players like that always have value if they’re healthy. The Twins should pursue Johan on a low $2.5-$3 Million contract with heavy incentive clause potentially boosting the value to $7-$9 million per year. Add in a opt out date, just like Rich Harden had – if Johan isn’t in the majors by July X, he can become a free agent. At worst, the Twins sink a few million dollars into a reclamation project that doesn’t pan out. At best, they find a crafty lefthander to fill out the back of their rotation and renew fan interest.
- Sign Broson Arroyo
Arroyo isn’t going to be the face of the next contending Twins staff, at 36 years old he’s certainly on the downhill side of his career, but the Twins can (and should) outbid nearly any other team for his services simply because of the stability he would provide. Arroyo has thrown over 200 innings all but one of the last nine seasons (he threw 199 in 2011) and has a career WHIP of 1.240 and a career SO/9 of 5.9. He eats innings, strikes out batters and doesn’t give up a ton of hits. That’s exactly what the Twins need in their rotation.
They’ll likely have to pay over market value (estimated at $8 million per year) so assume a $20 million, 2 year contract from Minnesota is what it will take to get it done. Arroyo could simply decide to resign with the Reds or another contender for less money, so the odds of him joining the Twins are slim, but the team needs to make an aggressive run at a top of the rotation guy and Arroyo is the option that makes the most sense.
- Sign Phil Hughes
This one is probably the most likely (and possibly most important) move to be made, but I think it’s such a no-brainer that I didn’t feel the need to put it any higher on the list. The 28 year old right hander has been a Yankee starter since 2010, but he’s never achieved the success the Yankees had hoped for. Hughes is a fly ball pitcher who is greatly hurt by pitching in the bandstand that is Yankee Stadium.
He’s reportedly open to the suggestion of returning to the bullpen, but the Twins would have no interest in that – they need starters and that’s where Hughes would be. Factor in the pitcher friendly target field (including the deep, tall RF wall) and you can almost guarantee Hughes’ numbers will improve. He wants to start, he needs a pitcher friendly park and he’ll want a decent contract – the Twins can meet all three requirements. This deal needs to be done – it just makes too much sense.
- Take a flier on Josh Johnson or Scott Baker
Josh Johnson is injury prone and looks nothing like the ace he was in 2011. He won’t command a large contract, but he’ll still get some respectable offers simply based on his previous seasons of work. The Twins won’t be able to sign him to a “Rich Harden” deal, but they certainly can be players at $8-$10 million per year (perhaps a 2 year deal) which makes him a bit higher risk, but the upside of a number one ‘ace’ of the staff could be worth the gamble.
Alternatively, the Twins can return to Scott Baker, who opted to leave the Twin cities for the windy city last season on a 1 year, $5.5 million contract. His surgically repaired elbow never healed and he was unable to pitch for the Cubs in 2013. After a full year of recovery, the Twins could swoop back in a reap the rewards of a healthy Baker. He doesn’t have the upside of Josh Johnson, but he could be obtained for closer to $3-$4 million instead of the $9-$10 Johnson will likely command.
To recap, while I would try to make all of the above moves, I understand that they won’t all happen due to players wanting to play for contenders or taking less money to stay with their current teams – etc. So, of the 5 options I listed, I think the Twins would realistically be able to achieve 3:
- Sign Shaun Marcum
- Sign Johan Santana
- Sign Phil Hughes
The typically conservative Twins’ front office is unlikely to spend big money on a player like Johnson who has such large question marks. Scott Baker reportedly wanted a change of scenery in leaving Minnesota last season, and I’m assuming that he’s going to stick to that train of thought in looking for a new team in 2014. Finally, I’m assuming Arroyo wants to sign with a contender for the last part of his career and will likely take less money to join the Reds / Nationals / Braves / Pirates – etc.
Even if those three moves are the only deals the Twins can get done, their 2014 rotation is suddenly looking much more promising than many expected. Hughes slots in as the staff ace, while a healthy Marcum makes a great #2 starter and a healthy Johan Santana could easily be a great #4 starter. Slot in Kevin Correia as the #5 guy and Gibson / Deduno / Hendriks / Albers / Diamond / Worley as the #3 man and you have a respectable rotation.
Is it high risk? Certainly. But with the 2014 Twins looking to simply return to .500, the team can afford to roll out a riskier rotation. If players fail, they can restock in 2015 (and will be supplemented by young pitching like Alex Meyer and Trevor May) if they succeed, the Twins have a cheap piece to use for the future or flip for younger arms that will be ready when the youngsters are ready to make a playoff run.
The only wrong approach to the coming off season would be to repeat the 2012 and 2013 offseasons – sign low cost, low upside journeymen and do little else on the free agent market – the old method has failed three years in a row, it’s time to try something new.
