Baseball’s regular season has entered its final month, with all but a few teams now resigned to non-contention and beginning their look towards next year. That doesn’t mean September baseball with a bad team isn’t worth watching, however. In fact, September is typically one of my favorite months of the baseball season as we get to see younger players get their first taste of the big leagues. Some players break on to the scene, some fizzle out, but either way it makes for interesting baseball and a great narrative to follow at the season’s end.
The Twins have a few position battles to watch during the final weeks, many of which will carry into spring training 2014. Players that perform well during this limited test will have an upper hand when it comes to next season’s ‘auditions’ so these opportunities shouldn’t be taken lightly.
Some of these battles are still projections as the Rochester Red Wings (the AAA affiliate of the Twins) have made the playoffs and many of their players will not be available for a call up until sometime next week. With that caveat out of the way, let’s look at some of the pending position battles to watch in September.
Alex Presley vs. Darin Mastroianni vs. Clete Thomas vs. Aaron Hicks
What’s at stake: The starting CF job and the 4th OF role
With Aaron Hicks’ flameout this season, the starting CF position is wide open for whomever decides to claim it in 2014. I don’t think Hicks will see a Twins uniform again this season (Instead, I feel the Twins will do the same thing they did with Brian Dozier, let him end his season and AAA to show him that he’ll have to earn his spot on the roster. It worked wonders with Dozier, hopefully it does the same thing with Hicks).
If not for an early season injury, Darin Masrtoianni would have likely won the starting CF job to begin 2013, but he now finds himself in the middle of the pack once again. If he can hit for average and play solid defense with his speed, he’s likely the front runner to win the job at the start of 2014 – but he’s far from locked in to the position.
The 4th outfielder spot will be a toss-up between Clete Thomas and Alex Presley. Both are no longer prospects (Thomas is 29, Presley 28) but both have some value in their ability to get on base, play solid defense and in their speed on the base paths. This is a true toss-up battle, the better hitter will claim their spot while the loser will be relegated to AAA to start the season (or outright released, as Clete Thomas would likely be due to being out of minor league options). The crazy part is either player could also elevate themselves to the point of being the starter in CF next season if Hicks doesn’t show signs of improvement.
Prediction: Presley outplays Thomas and Mastroianni and earns the lead for the CF job. Mastroianni serves as the 4th OF while Aaron Hicks spends the first portion of 2014 in AAA. Clete Thomas is passed through waivers and claimed.
Chris Colabello vs. Chris Parmelee vs. Joe Mauer
What’s at stake: Starting 1B
Justin Morneau’s trade to Pittsburgh started the movement of many other pieces within the Twins organization. Chris Parmelee, who was long thought to be the defacto replacement for Morneau has struggled to hit at all this season, while Chris Colabello forced the Twins hand by playing out of his mind in Rochester (earning the league ROY and MVP). Parmelee is younger and could still be argued to be a prospect, but his struggles at the plate have got to be a concern. Colabello will strike out, and he’s certainly not a prospect (he’ll be 30 next season) but his power at the plate puts some much needed pop into the Twins’ lineup.
Then, there’s Joe Mauer, who could see a lot more time at 1B next season to reduce his exposure to foul tips and the potential concussions that follow. The team is better with Mauer in the lineup, that’s not even debatable – but if Mauer (or the team) decide the best way to keep him in the lineup is to have him play 1B, then the Job is Mauer’s by default.
Prediction: Mauer has maintained that he wants to catch and I think the team values him behind the plate, but not to the point of risking his health. Mauer will catch 60-70 games while manning 1B for the rest. Chris Colabello tops Chris Parmelee in the 1B competition and earns the 1B/DH job while Parmelee is given a chance to find his swing in AAA.
Josmil Pinto vs. Chris Herrmann vs. Ryan Doumit
We’ve established that Joe Mauer will begin to transition from catching in 2014, meaning 90-100 games behind the plate are up for grabs. Josmil Pinto and Chris Herrmann are young prospects who both catch solid games (neither has outstanding defense, but they play it well enough to avoid being a liability) and carry average to below average bats (Pinto has been hitting very well, Herrmann doesn’t have the same potency but isn’t an automatic out like Drew Butera was). Meanwhile, Ryan Doumit may be one of the worst defensive catchers in the big leagues. His bat is always dangerous, however, and that’s what keeps him in the race.
Prediction: Josmil Pinto earns the ‘co-starter’ role. His bat can play at the big league level and his power will be an added bonus in a lineup that could use some potency. Chris Herrmann makes the team as well due to his versatility. He can play the back-up catcher as well as a fill in OF when needed. Ryan Doumit is the odd man out in this equation, and with his other roles (DH / RF) being occupied (Colabello / Pinto will fill the DH role while Arcia / Herrmann / Mastroianni will fill in at RF) he’ll have nowhere to call home. That’s why I think the Twins will flip Doumit to an AL team looking for a DH / emergency catcher in 2014. The return won’t be high, but if the Twins can turn Doumit into a bullpen arm or a high upside ‘A ball’ starter, that would be a success.
Liam Hendriks vs. Scott Diamond vs. Andrew Albers vs. Samuel Deduno vs. Kyle Gibson
What’s at stake: The 5th starter position
The Twins’ starting rotation is still a disaster, which is the biggest reason they are once again looking 90 losses square in the face. Of the existing group of starters, only Kevin Correia has earned a spot in the rotation for next season (thanks in large part to his 2 year contract). The other four positions are wide open.
I have a few assumptions regarding the rotation coming into next season. First, the Twins will re-sign Mike Pelfrey to a 1 year deal with a mutual option. Pelfrey has pitched well over his last few starts and will be 100% healthy coming into 2014. I think he’s benefited from playing in pitcher friendly Target Field and has enjoyed his time with the Twins to the point that he’ll gladly return to the team.
Second, the Twins sign international free agent Masahiro Tanaka from Japan. The Twins are reportedly very interested in the young right hander. Tanaka has posted three straight seasons with sub 2.00 ERA, boasts a great fastball that stays between 90-96 MPH while featuring a great splitter and devastating slider. He’s also working on a curveball, but that doesn’t profile as high as his other pitches.
With a great deal of cap space available and a large need for a staff ace, the Twins are in great position to make an aggressive bid for Tanaka. It may be a misplaced hunch, but I get the feeling they’re going big after the righty and they’ll land him this winter.
Finally, I think the Twins and Phil Hughes are a match that’s too great to miss. Hughes has struggled in New York, thanks in large part to his tendency to be a fly ball pitcher and New Yankee Stadium’s tendency to turn routine pop ups into home runs. Hughes has been quoted as saying he’ll take a bullpen job if that’s all that’s available, and to a large number of big league clubs, that’s what he’d be. Not to the Twins. Spacious Target Field will play well for a pitcher like Hughes, who could slot right into the top of the rotation for the Twins and could revive a fading career. Hughes is young enough that the Twins could count on him being a part of their future contending teams – which is always a bonus.
So, with a rotation looking like this:
1. Tanaka
2. Hughes
3. Pelfrey
4. Correia
5. ???
Coming into 2014, the role of the 5th starter is wide open. Deduno made a strong bid for the spot for the middle portion of 2013, but shoulder soreness has shut him down. His last few outings were less than stellar as well, likely hurting his spot at the head of the pack. Scott Diamond has pitched well in Rochester, but will likely need to prove he can get big league hitters out in September to earn a spot in 2014. Liam Hendriks has looked good in two starts in August (and very bad in another). If he can consistently be the ‘good’ pitcher, he likely has the head start for the #5 job.
Then there’s the enigma that’s Kyle Gibson. Gibson has been rated as the team’s top pitching prospect for the past few seasons, but his rather poor 2013 has shown he may need some more time in AAA. Whether his struggles stemmed from Tommy John recovery or just a lack of good enough stuff, we’ve yet to find out. We won’t see anything more from Gibson in 2013, but we cannot discount his chance at the #5 spot in 2014.
Prediction: This one is a tough call, because I can fully see Liam Hendriks or Kyle Gibson winning the spot. I think Scott Diamond is better suited to a long reliever role and Deduno’s inconsistencies are enough to lose him the 5th spot (he may be a candidate to trade in the offseason). Meanwhile, Andrew Albers is proving he’s not a big league pitcher by being obliterated in his last three starts.
Finally, remember that this ‘battle’ only breaks down players we’ll see in September (mainly Diamond and Hendriks) but that others like Alex Meyer and Alex Wimmers could step up and steal that final spot as well.
The season may be nearly over, but there’s still much to watch when it comes to Twins baseball. I’ll be using these last few weeks to get a good luck at the younger guys on the roster and perhaps see an early preview of the 2014 Twins roster. Keep an eye on the performers at the end of the season, a strong start could be the launching point of their careers. Either way, it makes for entertaining baseball!
