Before the start of each season, I (like many others) like to make projections and predictions on how the coming MLB season will play out. I name division winners, list the teams that I think will be duds and take a closer look at the teams I think will make things interesting.
Following the season, I like to look back at those projections and see just how far off I really was. Let’s start by looking at my projections from April 2013.
Projected AL East:
Tampa Bay 95-67
Boston 90-72
New York 88-74
Baltimore 82-80
Toronto 75-87
Actual AL East:
Boston 97-65
Tampa Bay 92-71
Baltimore 85-77
New York 85-77
Toronto 74-88
Recap: Outside of flipping Boston and Tampa Bay around, I had the AL East pegged pretty well. I didn’t like Toronto’s overhaul and was one of the few that didn’t believe the revamped Jays would contend. I had Baltimore and New York finished close, with the edge going to the Yankees who I felt were a little more talented. (Instead, they tied). All in all, not too bad of a prediction.
Projected AL Central:
Detroit: 90-72
Kansas City 85-77
Minnesota 78-84
Cleveland 77-85
Chicago 70-92
Actual AL Central:
Detroit 93-69
Cleveland 92-70
Kansas City 86-76
Minnesota 66-96
Chicago 63-99
Recap: I predicted Detroit would win the division with a fairly comfortable margin over the Royals, who I had thought would play a bit more consistent baseball that what they actually played. I wrote off Cleveland – citing a pitching staff full of question marks and my worry that they wouldn’t be able to keep the runs low enough for their offense to win their games. (Oops) I felt the Twins would have a turnaround season and at least be in the conversation late in the season (bigger oops) and I predicted that the White Sox would regret letting all of their talent walk and would easily be the worst of the central teams – what I didn’t correctly account for was just HOW BAD the White Sox were going to be.
Projected AL West:
Texas 93-69
Oakland 92-70
Los Angeles 88-74
Seattle 65-97
Houston 60-102
Actual AL West:
Oakland 96-66
Texas 91-72
Los Angeles 78-84
Seattle 71-91
Houston 51-111
Recap: I felt that the Rangers and A’s would be neck and neck heading into the final weeks and that either were solid candidates to win the division. I hedged towards the Rangers because of their pitching staff and a slight offensive edge. While the race was close, it was the A’s that boasted a more consistent offense and a superior pitching staff. I felt the Angels would hang around the division for a while before fading late in the year. Instead, the faded nearly instantly and made a strong surge late to make their final numbers look better than they actually were. Seattle was an interesting team, but in a stacked division I didn’t see them making it to .500 and I was actually a bit too optimistic on how terrible the Astros actually were. Still, another division in which I wasn’t too far off from the actual results.
Projected NL East:
Washington 97-65
Atlanta 89-73
Philadelphia 80-82
New York 78-84
Miami 50-112
Actual NL East:
Atlanta 96-66
Washington 86-76
New York 74-88
Philadelphia 73-89
Miami 62-100
Recap: I had the right idea, but the wrong teams when it came to predicting the NL East. I thought it would be a two team race for most of the season, but the ultra talented Nationals would pull away in August and have an easy division win. Instead the Nationals played poorly all year while the Braves looked like a powerhouse. I had Philly being a bit better than they actual were, while the Mets were projected to be worse than their actual result. Miami surprised me by not being the worst team in baseball (finishing 12 wins better than I thought they would). Outside of picking the Marlins last, I had the division completely wrong. I did get the ‘winner pulls away by a wide margin’ right though. That counts for something…right?
Projected NL Central:
Cincinnati 95-67
St. Louis 93-69
Pittsburgh 89-73
Milwaukee 70-92
Chicago 65-97
Actual NL Central:
St. Louis 97-65
Pittsburgh 94-68
Cincinnati 90-72
Milwaukee 74-88
Chicago 66-96
Recap: I thought the Reds could be the best team in baseball. Their offense and pitching staff, to me, was the complete package. While not being sold on the Cardinals, something told me they’d hang around the top of the division and could even win it. I also felt Pittsburgh would finish above .500, but given their division, would miss the playoffs. Milwaukee and Chicago were also-rans who would be out of contention early and finish distantly behind the cream of the crop. In the end, the Reds weren’t the best team in baseball, they weren’t even the best two teams in the NL Central! The Cardinals rolled all season like I thought the Reds would and the Pirates outplayed even my raised expectations. I was on the right track, but undersold just how good this division would be.
Projected NL West:
San Francisco 89-73
Arizona 88-74
Los Angeles 87-75
Colorado 80-82
San Diego 70-92
Actual NL West:
Los Angeles 92-70
Arizona 81-81
San Diego 76-66
San Francisco 76-66
Colorado 74-88
Recap: This was my biggest miss and I admitted prior to the season that I was largely hedging my bets on this division. I didn’t have a good feeling on any team, and could argue my way into the Dodgers, Giants, D-Backs and even the Rockies putting things together and winning the west. I thought this would be the most interesting division, simply because none of the teams were good enough to run away with it. Oops. Turns out, it was a close race…for second place. The Dodgers WERE good enough to run away with things and they did. San Francisco was underwhelming, the D-Backs couldn’t put enough good games together in a row and the Rockies were not as close to contending as I originally thought. Swing and a miss on the West.
Projected Playoffs:
AL Wild Card 1: Oakland
VS
Al Wild card 2: Boston
Winner Oakland
Divisional round
Oakland VS Tampa Bay
Winner Tampa Bay (3-1)
Detroit VS Texas
Winner Detroit (3-2)
Championship Round
Tampa Bay VS Detroit
Winner Tampa Bay (4-3)
NL Wild Card 1: St. Louis
VS
NL Wild Card 2: Atlanta
Winner: St. Louis
Divisional Round:
Washington VS St. Louis
Winner: St. Louis (3-2)
Cincinnati VS San Francisco
Winner: Cincinnati (3-0)
Championship Round:
Cincinnati VS St. Louis
Winner: Cincinnati (3-2)
World Series:
Tampa Bay VS Cincinnati
Winner: Tampa Bay (4-3)
Actual Playoffs:
AL Wild Card 1: Cleveland VS AL Wild Card 2: Tampa Bay
Cleveland / Tampa Bay VS Boston
Detroit VS Oakland
NL Wild Card 1: Pittsburgh VS NL Wild Card 2: Cincinnati
Pittsburgh / Cincinnati VS St. Louis
Dodgers VS Braves
Updated Projections:
Tampa Bay over Cleveland
Tampa Bay over Boston (3-2)
Oakland over Detroit (3-2)
Tampa Bay over Oakland (4-2)
Pittsburgh over Cincinnati
St. Louis over Pittsburgh (3-0)
Los Angeles over Atlanta (3-1)
Los Angeles over St. Louis (4-3)
World Series:
Tampa Bay over Los Angeles (4-3)
I’m sticking with the Rays as my world series favorite. They’ve got quite the hill to climb, but I think they have the talent to get it done. On the NL side, I’ve abandoned by position on the Reds, simply because it’s so clear that the Dodgers are truly the best team in the NL. I think they’ll have all they can handle in the Cardinals, but they will get past them in 7 games. I look for a Dodgers / Rays World Series to be quite the back and forth affair – with the Rays holding on and winning it all.
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