Twins Go Black Friday Shopping

The Minnesota Twins took a page out of American Thanksgiving culture and gorged themselves over the holiday weekend – not on turkey and the trimmings, but on free agent pitching. The Twins gorging, however, is likely to make them better in the coming season (whereas, America’s gorging will likely not have the same result).

The weekend started Wednesday night when the news leaked that the Twins would be signing Ricky Nolasco to a 4 year, $49 million deal. The move easily surpassed the highest free agent contract ever offered by the Twins (3 years, $21 million to Josh Willingham in 2011) and immediately gave them their ace for 2014.

The Twins, apparently, weren’t done there. A few hours after the signing was announced, baseball media members began reporting that the Twins were now focused on free agent pitcher Phil Hughes, and that a deal could be coming “soon”.

Sure enough, Saturday night brought the announcement that the Twins had inked Phil Hughes to a 3 year, $24 million deal. Hughes’ contract ranks second all time in Twins free agent signings (obviously behind Nolasco) and shows that the team is taking a completely different approach to rebuilding than they have at any other time in their history.

Now, the same baseball scribes who predicted the impending Hughes deal have been reporting that the Twins are moving in fast on free agent catcher AJ Pierzynski. As of Monday morning, nothing has been signed, but I wouldn’t be shocked if AJ was back in Minnesota by the middle of this week. The Twins are also (reportedly) still pursuing Bronson Arroyo and have a contract offer out to Mike Pelfrey as well.

So, how have the Twins done so far? Pretty well, if you look at the advanced numbers.

In Nolasco, the Twins picked up a durable right hander who will be turning 31 in a couple of weeks. He features a repertoire of fastball (90 mph), slider, curveball and spilt finger (80 mph, which acts a lot like a change up). Nolasco’s numbers don’t scream “ace” and it would be foolish for fans to think of him as the Twins version of Justin Verlander or Clayton Kershaw. What his numbers do say, however, is consistency. For his career, Nolasco has averaged 7.4 K/9 while limiting BB/9 to 2.1. Nolasco has never posted an ERA below 4.00 over the past 4 seasons, but his FIP (fielding independent pitching, which removes a pitcher’s defense – for better or worse – to get to a more realistic ERA range) has been consistently in the 3.5 range, indicating his ERA may be inflated by some less than stellar defensive performances. 

Nolasco is a groundball pitcher (1.32 GB/FB) but he has been victimized letting runners on base. For his career, Nolasco has a LOB% (left on base) of 69%, which is below league average. If the Twins can fix whatever ails Nolasco when a runner gets on – they may be able to get his ERA to start matching his FIP.

The biggest part of this contract was the price, while some have squirmed at the $12M / year deal, when you compare what Nolasco is (a slightly above league average, dependable starter who will get you close to 200 innings each year) the $12M per year price is actually quite fair. Over the past two seasons, Ryan Dempster (who has been below average) and Ryan Vogelsong (league average) have inked similar deals. For the consistency he delivers, 4 years $49M is a great deal for the Twins.

If you don’t look at advance stats or splits, you may be a bit confused at the Twins signing Phil Hughes. After all, his 5.19 ERA and 4.54 FIP don’t really scream “improvement” from the Twins below average staff of 2013. 

Remember, however, that Phil Hughes had the misfortune of pitching in that launchpad called Yankee Stadium – for a fly ball pitcher (63.3% career FB rate) that can become ugly awfully quick. The ale becomes apparent when you compare Hughes’ home / road splits. At home, Hughes posted an ugly 6.32 ERA (78.1 IP) with 17 HRs allowed. On the road, however, Hughes’ ERA fell to a respectable 3.88 ERA (67.1 IP) with only 7 HRs allowed. Take him out of Yankee stadium and he becomes a league average pitcher.

Hughes will be 27 on opening day, and the Twins will have him for his 27, 28, 29 year old seasons – that’s widely regarded as the peak for most pitchers. At a modest $8 million / year, Hughes has the potential to be a steal for the Twins, should his numbers improve at Target Field like many expect.

After the holiday, the Twins have spent $73 million for two pitchers, neither of whom profiles to be an ace. Yet, these deals are still successes for the Twins simply for what they DID get. They got consistency, in Nolasco. They got 200 innings (or darn close to it), above average strikeout numbers and solid FIP. In Hughes, they acquired potential – all signs point to him being an average to slightly above average starter when removed from Yankee Stadium. In a neutral park, (hitter / pitcher balanced) Hughes should be league average. Target Field is a pitcher’s park – which bodes well for a bounce back for Hughes.

As I mentioned before, this spending spree was completely unforeseen by everyone. The Twins typically don’t spend big money of free agents, and they don’t fix their glaring issues through free agency. It’s apparent, however, that Terry Ryan has been given a mandate from the owners. Fix this mess – now. What’s brilliant is that (so far) Ryan has done this without mortgaging the future. Nolasco and Hughes’ contracts are manageable, and will not handicap the payroll in the coming seasons (when the young guys arrive) they’re tradable assets (if necessary) and both are young enough to be able to contribute to a contending team featuring Buxton, Sano, Rosario, Meyer and May in just a few years.

My message to the Twins so far this offseason – I love it, but don’t stop there.

So far, the Twins have made the moves the fans have been calling for. They’ve acquired pitching, and they’ve spent some of their large cap space to do so. My hope is that the team doesn’t just say “we’re done” and stop there. With Nolasco and Hughes, the Twins have a respectable starting staff. They can notch that staff up to “competitive” with one or two more signings.

I’m glad the team is still connected to Bronson Arroyo (and that his other suitors, the Giants and Mets, have been distancing themselves) Arroyo, while older (37 by opening day) would provide valuable innings (200 each of his last 5 years) and could be a veteran leader on the staff. The Twins are reportedly willing to offer 2 years, while Arroyo would like 3. I’d be willing to go 3 years for Arroyo, at $9 million per year (3, $27M) at $9M, you get an above average pitcher for below market price. If Arroyo is looking for more than $9M/year, I’d only go as high as 2 years, however. There’s common ground to be found there, hopefully the Twins can work it out.

The team also has an offer out of Mike Pelfrey for 2 years, $10 million. I’m a big fan of this offer for Pelfrey, who, one year removed from Tommy John surgery, should be able pitching more like his 2010, 2011 stats  - less like his 1^st half 2013 stats. Pelfrey is reportedly looking for a bit more money out of the deal – but if I’m Terry Ryan, I’m holding strong. 2 years, $10 million. Take it or leave it. I have a hunch that at the end of the day, Pelfrey will take it.

Let’s assume then that the Twins do get Arroyo (3 yrs, $27M) and Peflrey (2 yrs, $10M). That would mean they spent $120 in 4 pitchers this offseason, plus likely $10M/ yr for AJ Pierzynski – so a total expenditure of $130 million for a team that doesn’t spend money. That alone is impressive. But, take a look at the (projected) lineup heading into 2014 with these signings:

Starters:

1.       Ricky Nolasco

2.       Bronson Arroyo

3.       Phil Hughes

4.       Mike Pelfrey

5.       Kevin Correia

Bullpen:

LR: Anthony Swarzak
LR: Brian Duensing
MR: Caled Thielbar
MR: Ryan Pressly  / AJ Achter  / Edgar Ibarra / Kris Johnson
MR: Casey Fien
SU: Jared Burton
CL: Glen Perkins

In the fold: Scott Diamond, Vance Worley, Alex Meyer, Andrew Albers

C: AJ Pierzynski  / Josmil Pinto
1B: Joe Mauer
2B: Brian Dozier
SS: Pedro Florimon
3B: Trevor Plouffe
LF: Oswaldo Arcia
CF: Alex Presley / Aaron Hicks
RF: Chris Parmelee / Darin Mastroianni
DH: Josh Willingham / Ryan Doumit

Bench:  Eduardo Escobar, Mastroianni / Presley, Chris Herrmann,  Ryan Doumit

Note: players separated by (/) are position battles that will be determined in spring training. I believe Aaron Hicks starts 2014 in Rochester (AAA) but could earn the CF job with an improved spring showing.  I think Chris Parmelee needs a strong spring to keep his RF job, otherwise it goes to Mastroianni. Pinto and Pierzynski will split time at catcher, but I wouldn’t be stunned to see Pinto spend half the season in AAA to get more seasoning. That makes Chris Herrmann an ideal bench player, as he can cover corner outfield spots as well as catcher. Look for Parmelee to fill in for Mauer at 1B if Mauer needs a day off.

That’s a good but not great offense as constructed – but let’s assume we actually get seasons from some of those players that failed to deliver last year. Let’s say Dozier’s 2014 matches his 2^nd half of 2013. Let’s say Hicks delivers on all that potential in CF and Plouffe shows his late season batting average surge was not a fluke. Let’s say Parmelee’s eye at the plate returns to 2011 levels, and he stops striking out as often. Finally, assume a healthy Willingham puts up numbers closer to 2012 than 2013. Suddenly, that offense is above average – and with an already good bullpen and league average starting rotation….

I’m not predicting playoffs, merely saying that the changes the Twins have been making are welcome and should make them an interesting team in 2014. (Now, imagine what happens when that lineup is infused with Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton, DJ Hicks, Max Kepler, Eddie Rosario….)