The Twins are off to a solid start through five games of spring training (four wins). Their pitching has been solid so far, with the starters all showing good two to three inning outings and the relievers (at least the ones expected to make the team) doing a great job filling in an inning at a time. We’ve seen great performances from Brian Dozier (5 for 7, 4 doubles), Trevor Plouffe (defensively) and Josmil Pinto (1.667 OPS) and while that’s a welcome sign, they’re all established players with the big league club and all have likely earned a majority of the time at their positions in 2014.
The far more interesting story lies in examining the fringe players. The guys who are just off the casual fan’s radar – but whose early season performance (if it continues) could earn them a trip north come opening day. So, who just may surprise fans by making the roster come March 31st? I have a few candidates:
Danny Santana (SS):
Spring stats: (10 AB) .400 AVG, 1.200 OPS, 4 RBI (2 triples, 1 Stolen Base)
How he’ll make the roster: Santana’s strongest qualities have always been his bat and his speed. He’s posted AVGs of .286 and .297 in the past two seasons at Fort Myers and New Britain respectively while swiping 47 bases combined over the past two years. He’s already shown (in 2014’s small sample size) that he’s capable of being a spark to a lineup with his speed and ability to put the ball in play.
If Pedro Florimon is delayed by his appendectomy or if he struggles at all during the spring, Santana could force his way into the discussion simply because of his offensive potential. He’s also already on the 40 man roster, which makes calling him up easy.
Why he won’t make the roster: Santana’s weakness has always been his defense. He rushes his throws, doesn’t set his feet and as a result will sail a throw over the first baseman’s head. He committed 32 errors in 2013, a number far too high for a major league shortstop. He’s spoken about slowing down the game and making his throws, so it sounds like he’s aware of his issues and working on a solution (to that point, he’s played very solid defense so far this spring) but until we see an extended stretch of error free baseball, Santana’s defense will be his biggest detraction.
Also of concern is Santana’s OBP, while he’s posted averages in the high .200’s his OBP has struggled to surge much beyond the low .300’s. Essentially, if Santana isn’t hitting his way on base, he’s not getting there. With his speed, he needs to be on base to play up to his full potential. In short, he needs to take more walks and work on better pitch selection. Santana told Mike Bernadino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press that he wants to draw 30 more walks in 2014 – a goal that, if met, will vastly improve Santana’s stock in the organization.
Prediction: Santana’s the toughest call of any prospect at this point. His bat is Major League ready – all he’s missing is the defense. Through a series of “If’s” I can see Santana being the opening day starter. IF Santana plays great defense in the spring and IF Pedro Florimon is slowed by his surgery, Santana makes the squad as the starting SS. Without those conditions, I think he’s sent to AAA Rochester. He’s not far away from the big league roster, however.
Wilkin Ramirez (OF)
Spring Stats: .571 AVG, 1.571 OPS, 5 RBI
How he’ll make the roster: Ramirez earned a spot on the opening day roster last season based on the strength of his strong spring and he’s doing his best to repeat the accomplishment this year. Ramirez’s 2013 stats are lessened due to two injuries (concussion, broken leg) that essentially derailed his season. But his 2013 spring and 2014 spring show what the Twins see in the 28 year old outfielder. He bas a solid bat (with decent power) and plays all 3 OF positions. He also provides a leadership role to the younger Latin American players in the Twins clubhouse.
Why he won’t make the roster: Ramirez is the ideal bench bat for a contending team as he adds a bit of flexibility and depth. Unfortunately, the Twins are likely not a contending team – and may prioritize their roster differently because of this fact. In short, the Twins could likely carry 13 pitchers into opening day (to protect Scott Diamond, Vance Worley and Sam Deduno) which will pinch the bench. Wilkin could still crack the club as the 4th OF if he outplays Aaron Hicks and Darin Mastroianni (Alex Presley being the starter, in this instance) but if Hicks wins the starting job and Presley claims the backup role, a smaller bench will likely force Ramirez into AAA.
Prediction: I have a hunch that Aaron Hicks wins the starting job this spring once again (I’ll readily admit that this is an unpopular theory – but I’m just going with my gut). That will necessitate carrying a 4th OF that can play CF at a high level (Mastroianni and Presley) which will bump Wilkin off the bench and into Rochester.
Kennys Vargas (1B/DH)
Spring Stats: .333 AVG, .619 OPS
Why he’ll make the roster: Vargas has a tremendously dangerous bat with incredible power. He could feasibly step into the everyday DH role while filling in at 1B when Mauer needs a day off. He plays sufficiently decent defense at first (not a liability) and is already on the 40 man roster. His bat is SO dangerous – he could be a threatening force in the lineup immediately, if given the chance.
Why he won’t make the roster: Vargas is still a bit unpolished. He’s never played in AA ball and has taken some time to adjust to each level as he’s promoted. While he’s 24 years old, there is a chance you could ruin a prospect like Vargas by rushing him – a jump to the big leagues without any AA seasoning may be pushing him a bit too fast.
Prediction: Vargas will be an interesting case. He’s on the 40 man roster now, so the team is obviously expecting him to contribute within the next couple of seasons. He has the potential to be an offensive force – but he’ll need to show that he can hit at AA before the Twins even think of him making the jump. He’ll start 2014 in New Britain, but don’t be surprised if he’s one of the prospects getting the call in September. If all goes well, he could be a big league DH as soon as 2015.
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