Pitching Optimism

Don’t look now, but the Twins may have stumbled onto some starting pitching. While it may be too early to call the Twins’ starters “back” from their league worst ERA, fans can tentatively call this staff “improved”.

Francisco Liriano started the hope train last week against Oakland as he went 6 strong innings, holding the A’s lineup scoreless and striking out 9. It was the first appearance of the “good” Liriano – a player whose existence we only knew of due to a strong spring outing. Fans were right to be hesitant, as one good start does not necessarily mean Liriano’s woes were behind him.

When Liriano took to the mound on Tuesday night, fans once again saw the “good” version. Although he didn’t earn the win, Liriano still managed to pitch 6 innings, allowing only 4 hits and 1 earned run while striking out 8.

We’ve all seen too much “bad” Liriano to feel comfortable every time he takes the mound, but two consecutive solid outings have brought back a little glimmer of hope that Liriano can and will be the staff “ace” the team needs him to be. (Or, more importantly, the valuable trade chip the team needs him to be).

Blackburn’s Back(?):

Nick Blackburn has been atrocious this season. In 7 games, he had a 1-4 record with an era above 8. He seemed to be getting shelled each time he took to the mound (he had given up an average of 1 home run per appearance). When the Twins announced that Blackburn would be the pitcher to fill in for Pavano, fans appropriately responded with an exasperated sigh. We’ve been on this ride before, and we don’t like the trip.

Funny thing about Nick Blackburn; every now and again he looks absolutely dominate. Blackburn typically finds his groove in May – his career ERA is 3.51 in the 5^th month – that’s .70 lower than any other month. May 2012 came and went, and Blackburn did not have his usual strong month. Instead, Blackburn posted an ERA of 11.08 in May and only pitched 13 innings for the entire month due to injuries.

It’s possible that June is the month where Blackburn will hit his stride. Last night’s 5 inning, 2 earned run outing was Balckburn’s best start of the season. He threw only one truly poor pitch all evening – a ball left over the middle for Yuniesky Betancourt to pound over the outfield fence. Outside of that Blackburn kept control of his pitches, kept the walks to a minimum and held the Royals off the base path.

By now, we know better than to expect Blackburn to put dominate performances like this up night after night – but if Blackburn can at least put a solid June together, the Twins should be able to squeak out a few more wins.

Cart Fully In Front Of The Horse:

I’m getting way ahead of myself here – I’m fully aware of that, but one can’t help but wonder…what if the Twins keep this up? Their pitching had been the Achilles heel of the team during the beginning of the system – with Scott Diamond (4-1, 1.86 ERA) PJ Walters (2-1, 3.69 ERA) Cole De Vries (1-1 4.20 ERA) acting as the three most reliable starters and Francisco Liriano and Nick Blackburn putting things back to where they were expected to be – the Twins might keep this pace up.

Looking ahead, the Twins have the following series lined up in June:

3 Vs Cubs (19-37)

 - These are 3 very winnable games. The Cubs have an anemic offense and a questionable bullpen. Furthermore, the Cubs are on a cold streak and the Twins are riding a hot streak. If momentum means anything, the advantage goes to the Twins

4 Vs Phillies (28-30)

- The Phillies are a good team that’s playing under their expectations. With as tough as the NL East appears to be this season, this series will be a good indicator of just how “real” this winning streak is.

3 Vs Brewers (25-31)

 - The Brewers have struggled to be consistent this season. The Twins took two out of three in Milwaukee last month and realistically should do the same at home.

3 @ Pirates (28-27)

 - If you haven’t picked up on it by now, the NL Central is not very good. That’s a good thing for the Twins. This is yet another winnable series against an opponent who is having a rough year.

3 @ Reds (31-24)

- Cincinnati is a solid team that’s playing very good baseball. This won’t be an easy series, but it’s another team that the Twins are certainly capable of hanging around with.

3 Vs White Sox (31-25)

- The White Sox are outplaying their expectations and are in first place in the AL Central. The Twins played the Sox close in their last meeting, winning one and allowing another to slip away in the late innings.

3 Vs Royals (24-31)

- The Twins are 3-2 against the Royals this season but it you get the feeling they just have their number. While the series is close now, the Twins have looked to be the better team in all 5 outings.

Of that group, only three teams have a winning record (Cincinnati, Pittsburgh & the White Sox) and three of them (Milwaukee, Cubs, Kansas City) are slumping. If we are to assume the Twins’ pitching is going to return to league average numbers and that the offense will be similar to the present construction (IE no injuries), it’s not unexpected to see the Twins winning 4 of the 6 series and going 14-8 over their next 22 games. That would put them at 36-42, 6 games under .500 and depending on how the division breaks down, in reach of the top.

Does That Change The Plan?

To clarify, the “plan” as it has been assumed for months now, is that the Twins would be major sellers at the trade deadline. Francisco Liriano, Carl Pavano, Josh Willingham, Matt Capps, Jamey Carroll, Justin Morneau and Ryan Doumit were all considered assets the team was likely to move in order to rebuild their farm system and prepare the team for 2013 and 2014.

What happens if they start winning and, hypothetically, are at or slightly above .500 by the All-Star break? With the rest of the AL Central down, it isn’t unreasonable to think the Twins could have a shot at the division title by finishing with a slightly above .500 record. Do they stand pat and try to contend if they’re close?

In a word: no. If the Twins continue their present pace and win at a .600 clip – they would finish with a W/L of 86-76. That’s probably good enough to win the division or at last good enough to snag one of the wild card spots for the playoffs.

The likelihood the Twins would win 60% of their remaining games is low – given the precedent set so far this season. More importantly, this team needs depth. Their farm system was depleted after the Bill Smith era. Their recently drafted players are not going to make an impact for many years. There’s talent ready to come up in Miguel Sano, Kyle Gibson, Alex Wimmers, Deolis Guerra, Aaron Hicks, Joe Benson and Chris Parmelee but the team needs more pitching and positional depth.

It may be hard to do, especially given the constant losing this team has faced over the past year and a half, but regardless of their standings at the deadline, I think the Twins need to sell.

Keep Joe Mauer, Denard Span, Ben Revere, Brian Dozier and Trevor Plouffe and use the other assets listed above to acquire starting pitching and more positional depth. In 2 to 3 years time, the Twins will have a full youth movement much like Washington is experiencing now; good young players who have made the team competitive once again. By sacrificing the now and focusing on the future, the team can make that youth movement even stronger.

Parmelee Promoted

File this one under “didn’t see that coming”. The Twins have announced the promotion of 1B Chris Parmelee to the major league roster. In a corresponding move, the team sent down Cole De Vries.

Parmelee was optioned to AAA last month after suffering a long slump at the plate. During his 15 games with the Red Wings, Parmelee hit .375 with 4 home runs and 4 doubles. Parmelee also cut down on his strikeouts, tallying only 8 during his stay in Rochester.

It was suspected that the Twins sent Parmelee down simply to build his confidence and get him some regular at bats. It’s safe to say that happened when you look at his AAA numbers. Parmelee fills in a large whole in the Twins lineup – evidenced last night by Trevor Plouffe playing 1B.

This is Parmelee’s third stint with the Twins and his second time on the 25 man roster this season. If he can continue to swing the bat with the same authority in the majors as he was in AAA, he’s likely to stay with the club for the remainder of the year.

If Parmelee can come up and play at a consistent level, it may make the Twins decision regarding Justin Morneau easier when the trade deadline rolls around. If they’re sure they have their next 1B on the roster, Morneau becomes an expendable piece.

It’s no secret that I wasn’t the biggest fan of Cole De Vries. He was absolutely maddening to watch. He’d get ahead in the count and then nibble around the edges until the count was full. He didn’t have electric stuff – but it seemed like it would have been good enough if he simply attacked the zone a little more often.

That being said, De Vries did exactly what the team asked him to do; he stepped in and gave 3 solid starts while the starters were injured or otherwise worthless (Liriano).

In all fairness, this call up was De Vreis’ first time at the major league level – for a first appearance, this wasn’t too bad of a showing.

With De Vries sent down, Jeff Manship will likely step in to his starting spot on Sunday against the Cubs. Manship looked good in one inning of work last night and has the endurance to be a starter (he was starting in AAA).

Twins Hot Streak Continues / Day 1 Draft Results

A fan could get used to this. Last night, the Twins broke out the lumber against Will Smith and the Kansas City Royals, hitting three home runs in route to a “not-as-close-as-it-looks” 10-7 victory.

DeVries Notches Win #1:

Cole DeVries put together one of his best starts of the season en route to his first major league win. DeVries lasted just 5 innings, giving up 4 ER and 6 hits while striking out 4. DeVries’ numbers are slightly skewed, however, as 2 of those 4 earned runs fall directly at the feet of Brian Dozier and Alexi Casilla who each committed an error in the 4^th inning, allowing two extra runs to cross the plate. To his credit, DeVries kept his composure and earned two critical strikeouts with runners in scoring position to end the 4^th inning.

At this point, I think we can safely say this is what we’re going to get from DeVries. He’s an effectively inconsistent pitcher who has slightly above average stuff, but lacks the ability to consistently hit the zone. He’s going to walk some batters, and he’s going to get shelled every now and again – but he’s good enough to function as a solid #5 starter or long reliever on most teams. With the way this pitching staff is currently constructed, he’s the #3 starter and as long as he keeps turning in performances like last night, he’ll get to keep that role.

Offensive MVPs:

Ben Revere: 3/5, 2R, 2RBI, SB

-This is what the Twins expected Revere to be when they drafted him in 2007. He’s a solid contact hitter, with the ability to be dangerous on the base path. With his nice defensive range and improving baseball IQ, Revere is proving to be a valuable addition to the Twins outfield.

Josh Willingham: 2/3, 2R, 3RBI, 2BB

-Willingham continues to be the Twins most valuable batter (and by extension, their most valuable trade chip). His two run blast put the Twins up early and he continues to be the foundation of a fearsome 3-5 lineup (Mauer, Willingham, Morneau).

MLB Draft: Where Nothing Goes As Planned

The first round of the MLB draft was last night, and nearly every mock draft had the same outcome. The Pirates would take Mark Appel, the major league ready arm from Stanford. The Twins would take Byron Buxton, the player with the most potential and upside in the draft. The Mariners would then take Carlos Correa, the phenomenon from Puerto Rico who has been launching up the charts over the past few weeks. From there, most mocks started to vary, but the consensus top three seemed set.

Then the draft started.

The Astros went against the grain and selected Carlos Correa, immediately putting the Twins on the spot. Do they take the major league ready arm in Mark Appel, or do they stick with their plan and take Byron Buxton, potentially the best talent in the draft?

In the short term, the Twins could have really used Mark Appel. The pitching staff is a well documented nightmare and is in need of a youth movement. With earlier draft picks Kyle Gibson and Alex Wimmers likely making their way to majors over the next year, the addition of Appel to the staff would have created a trio of young hurlers for the Twins.

The MLB draft is not like the NFL draft, however. Teams don’t necessarily draft for immediate need. Since the time it takes to get to the professional level is so much longer than the NFL, teams need to draft the best talent available. Fill you farm system with the best players and build from there. Assets can be moved for needs, but drafting immediate needs will do little to help the long term health of your ballclub.

Thankfully, the Twins adhered to this principle and took the young high school player out of Georgia. 

Buxton is a lightning fast 18 year old who has been labeled a potential five tool all-star. Scouting reports have clocked Buxton making the run from batters box to first in 3.9 seconds. Other reports have Buxton scoring on a sac-fly…from second base.

Buxton’s bat is above average as well. He currently hits gaps well and has the ability to push the ball for line drive hits. The hope is that as Buxton grows and develops, he will build up some power as well.

Buxton’s defense is labeled as above average, with good range and speed to make most outfield plays. Right now, Buxton is a whole lot of that dreaded “P” word – Potential. If he develops like the scouts think he will, Byron Buxton will be a future star for the Twins.

New Rules + Unpopular Agent = Lost Money

The MLB changed their draft rules with their newly signed collective bargaining agreement. Teams now have a limited amount of money they can spend on their draft picks – both top picks and cumulative signings. As such, teams are considering what draft picks will sign for even more heavily than they had in the past.

Mark Appel, the supposed number one overall pick is represented by Scott Boras, a notoriously difficult to negotiate with agent. Reports have stated that Boras’ unwillingness to discuss what dollar amount Appel was looking for as being the biggest reason for his fall down to the 8^th pick. With a limited budget and needs to fill, teams like the Astros, Twins, Mariners, Orioles, Royals, Cubs and Padres decided to take players they were sure they could sign.

With the new tiered salary limits, this fall from top 3 to 8^th costs Appel millions of dollars in his first contract. It will be interesting to see if prospects realize this in the future and begin to choose agents who are willing to discuss and negotiate with teams, rather than play hardball.

Baseball is a business, after all, and if players want to maximize their earnings, big time agents like Boras certainly serve a purpose. Last night, however, it was interesting to see teams essentially “freeze out” a Boras represented player.

M is for Magic

Maybe there still is some magic in those ‘ol hats. For those who may not be aware, the Twins have played their last six games wearing the old “M” style hat from the 90’s. It’s the same hat the team wore during their 1987 and 1991 World Series titles. Since they’ve donned that cap on May 28^th, they have gone 5-1 and played very solid baseball throughout. The team won’t commit to believing in the “M hat mojo”, the players dodge the question and Manager Ron Gardenhire gives a gruff “I don’t care, I just wear them” response. The point can’t be denied, however, the players have not worn a different cap since May 28^th and the team has looked better than they have all year.

MAGIC! 

Okay, so better pitching, clutch hitting and solid defense help the cause too – but it’s gotta be the caps!

The Twins return home today after a solid 5-1 outing over their past six games. They managed to keep Oakland’s ice cold bats frosty at Target Field, with Francisco Liriano even pitching in to throw his first quality game of the season. The offense went through a few rough patches against the A’s, but managed to do just enough to back up solid starting pitching. Here’s a quick recap of the Oakland series:

5/28: Twins 5 – Oakland 4

 Scott Diamond 6.1 IP, 3 ER, 9H, 1BB, 4K

-          Diamond continued to be the best pitcher in the Twins rotation. Even with an “off’ game, Diamond kept the game within grasp for the offense.

Joe Mauer: 2/3, 2R, 1BB

-          It may be safe to call Joe Mauer “back” at this point in the season. He continues to see the ball well and have quality at bats. This game was just the tip of what would become a very solid weekend for Mauer.

5/29: Twins 3 – Oakland 2

Cole DeVries: 5.0 IP, 0ER, 2H, 5BB, 1K

-          DeVries continues to be infuriating to watch. He has the potential to be a reliable pitcher, but he won’t attack the zone when he’s ahead in the can’t (either he won’t or he lacks the control to do so consistently) While DeVries’ final line looks great, he turned in a shaky performance at best (Oakland was batting around .200 collectively – there is no reason why you should issue 5 walks!) Even DeVries’ worst stuff was better than Jason Marquis and Liam Hendriks’ early season efforts though.

Josh Willingham: 1/4, 1H, 1R, 3RBI, 1BB

-          This was shaping up to be a horrible Twins loss (runners stranded, pitching gives the win away) before Willingham stepped up to the plate with two on and two out in the bottom of the ninth. Games like this are why baseball is great. The Twins looked terrible and didn’t deserve to win – then with one swing, Willingham brought home the “W”.

5/30: Twins 4 – Oakland 0

Francisco Liriano: 6.0 IP, 0ER, 3H, 2BB, 9K

-          Liriano turned in not only his best start of the season (that’s not saying much given the sample so far) but one of the better starts the entire Twins staff has been able to muster. Seemingly out of nowhere, Liriano found his “stuff” and completely mowed down the Oakland batters. While he did get behind in a few counts, Liriano simply kept pounding the zone and let the poor Oakland batters swing themselves back to the bench. It’s too early to say Liriano is back (after all, this outing could simply be great due to the team he was facing) but the Twins are finally seeing SOMETHING promising from Liriano – that’s a great sign.

Josh Willingham: 2/4, 1R, 3RBI

-          Willingham continued to be the Twins best hitter, driving in 3 of the 4 Twins runs for the afternoon. While he’s not likely to be a Twin for the whole season, it’s nice to see the Twins have a valuable commodity that other teams will chase at the trade deadline.

6/1: Twins 1 – Cleveland 7

Carl Pavano: 3.2 IP, 6ER, 9H, 1BB, 2K

-          Pavano has been fighting shoulder soreness over his past three starts. During that span he’s gone 0-2, given up 24 hits and 14 earned runs. While it’s great that Pavano wants to fight through his maladies to keep the pitching staff strong, this injury is clearly hurting Pavano to the point that he is doing more harm to the team than good. The Twins front office indicated late Sunday afternoon that Pavano would likely be placed on the DL. More on that in a moment.

Brian Dozier: 1/3, 1 H, 1 RBI

-          When you score the only run of the game, you get to be the offensive MVP.

6/2: Twins 7 – Cleveland 4

PJ Walters: 4.1 IP, 4 ER, 8 H, 3 BB, 2 K

-          This game had all the markings of Twins blowout as they jumped to an early 4-0 lead in the first inning. Unfortunately, Walters didn’t seem to have solid command of his pitches throughout the game and he allowed the Indians to claw their way back into the game, tying it in the 5^th inning. Walters may have injured himself on a pickoff attempt in the 5^th – which could have facilitated his early exit from the game. There hasn’t been any official injury announcement on Walters, so it could have just been a strain or he was simply pulled for inefficiency. This was Walters’ worst start of the season – that being said; he still managed to keep the game tied.

Joe Mauer: 3/5, 1R, 3RBI

-          Mauer’s two run home run in the 7^th proved to be simply extra padding, but at the time it felt like the death blow to Cleveland’s comeback. In the 6^th, Trevor Plouffe’s solo home run put the Twins back out in front after the Indians mounted a 5 inning comeback. Even with that new lead, you could “feel” the Indians still had the momentum. When Mauer crushed the ball to right center, the momentum was fully on the Twins’ side.

6/3: Twins 6 – Indians 3

Scott Diamond: 7 IP, 0ER, 7H, 0BB, 2K

-          Diamond did allow 2 runs across, but they were unearned (Brain Dozier’s error allowed both to score). Diamond continues to be the ace of the staff. He throws strikes, controls the ball well and doesn’t allow the “big inning”. After back to back short starts from Pavano and Walters, the bullpen needed the starter to go deep, and Diamond did just that.

Brian Dozier / Trevor Plouffe

-          Dozier had a poor defensive game, but he backed it up with 2/3, 1R game. Plouffe continues to warm up with each game – improving his plate discipline and hitting the ball much better than he had been early in the season. His 8^th inning leadoff double turned triple (after a throwing error) proved to be the catalyst for the “nail in the coffin” inning the Twins were looking for.

Trending Up:

Ben Revere: This isn’t last season’s Ben Revere. The 2012 edition has greatly improved plate discipline and overall hitting. He no longer sends the ball dribbling along the ground, hoping for a ground ball single. (Okay that still happens, but it happens at a much lower frequency than it used to).  Instead, he’s been able to put the ball into the outfield and get on base, where is speed and base running ability make him a great offensive weapon. Through 20 games, Revere is hitting .286, with 2 doubles and 1 triple. He’s also stolen 5 bases on 6 attempts. Revere was always a good defensive outfielder (in terms of range – not arm strength) but if his bat can come stay at this level for a complete season, he’s going to be the next Twins outfield star.

Trending Down:

Carl Pavano’s trade value: Pavano is operating on a one year contract with a team that is not going to contend for a playoff spot. In that scenario, Pavano becomes a prime trade candidate. At his best, Pavano is a solid innings eater who can give teams a 7 inning, 3 earned run start on a consistent basis. For a contending team, that makes Pavano a nice #5 starter to shore up the rotation for a playoff push. Unfortunately for the Twins, Pavano has been wildly inconsistent this season. While he’s shown signs of being that dominate innings eater the Twins were hoping for, he’s had more instances of horrid outings and being utterly hittable. Now with his shoulder injury, Pavano’s value has fallen to zero. Hopefully his injury proves to be somewhat minor and Pavano can come back and put together another 3 to 4 quality starts by the trade deadline. Much like Liriano, Pavano’s value to the Twins at this point in time is as a trade commodity and nothing more.

Pavano Down: Manship Up?

With Pavano being placed on the DL as early as today, the Twins will have to turn to their 10^th different starter on this young season. Jeff Manship, who had been starting in AAA Rochester, is likely to be the next man to step into the rotation. Manship has put up good numbers this season (4-1, 3.08 ERA) in the minors and could just be the next minor league pitcher to succeed in the Twins rotation. Manship has had multiple call-ups over the past 3 years, and each time he has struggled at the major league level. It will be hard to pitch worse than Pavano has been, however.

UPDATE: The Twins have activated Nick Blackburn and he will start in Pavano's place on Wednesday. That, Twins fans, is what we like to call a "lateral move". 

Just for fun, the 10 Twins starters have been:

1. Carl Pavano
2. Anthony Swarzak
3. Francisco Liriano
4. Liam Hendriks
5. Jason Marquis
6. Scott Diamond
7. PJ Walters
8. Cole DeVries
9. Nick Blackburn
10. Jeff Manship (If he earns a start) 

53 games in, and the Twins have/will have used 10 different starters. Ouch.

Looking Forward:

The Twins are 3 games back of Kansas City for 4^th place in the division. They open up a home stand against the Royals tonight. At this point, not being last is about the best “race” that Twins fans can hope for this season. If the team plays .700 ball this month, and carries that momentum into July, they may find themselves at .500 and contending for the division – they hit that spot last season, climbing within reach of the division by the All-Star break. As such, the team decided not to sell at the deadline and subsequently fell apart, losing an opportunity to refill the minor league depth. I’d rather see the Twins be sellers at the deadline and move their older assets (Willingham, Pavano, Carroll, Morneau) for younger pitching and infielders. Wins are great, but hopefully the front office doesn’t let a mid season run ruin their plan like they did last season.

Draft Thoughts:

The MLB draft is today as well. The Twins are picking 2^nd overall (a position which they have greatly struggled with in their past, as highlighted in Friday’s post). The popular train of thought is that the Twins will take the best player available, Byron Buxton – a HS outfielder who is being dubbed as the best talent in the draft. While he’s likely a few years from the majors, if Buxton’s upside proves to be true he has the markings of a legitimate 5 tool player and a true all star in the outfield. When those players come along, you have to take a shot at them.

Some Twins fans are stuck with the notion that the team needs pitching and should chase one of the college arms. I maintain that pitching is a dangerous pick (every pick has risk, but pitchers seem to be more of a challenge. Injuries are more common and can ruin careers before they begin). I like teams that draft position players and pick up known quantities at pitcher (free agency, trades – etc.) The Twins have drafted high quality college hurlers in the past few drafts (Kyle Gibson, Alex Wimmers) and both have already had major arm injuries before even reaching the major leagues. Injuries happen to both sides – pitchers and hitters, and players flame out in the minors regardless of their position, but batters come with a lower risk than pitchers – when you’re rebuilding a team, you don’t want risk, you want quality and quantity.

With so many needs, it’s hard to pick “wrong” this early in a draft – but with a talent like Buxton likely to be available, the Twins have to take him.

Twins Draft History: A .125 Hitter

The MLB draft is coming up next week and the sad part is, for many Twins fans, this could be the highlight of the season. The Twins are drafting second overall, meaning they should get a superstar player with their pick. Over the past few years, superstars such as Bryce Harper, Stephen Strasburg, Eric Hosmer, Buster Posey and Gerrit Cole have all gone in the top five picks. Big name players can be found at the top of the draft and a team can greatly improve (sometimes quickly) if they grab the right player.

For the Twins, that qualifier “if” has been the big problem when it comes to top draft picks. I thought it would be interesting to look back at the top draft picks from the Twins drafts throughout their history. Although the team has existed in Minnesota since 1961, they have only been bad enough to have a top five pick eight times. That being said, those eight picks have been…well…see for yourself:

1982 – 4^th Pick overall: Bryan Oelkers (Pitcher)

About the pick: Oelkers appeared in only 10 games for the Twins in 1983 before bouncing around the lower levels of the team. In 1986 he was dealt to Cleveland where he spent one more season before retiring.

Who They Missed: Dwight Gooden (5^th overall), Duane Ward (9^th), Barry Bonds (2^nd Round), Randy Johnson (4^th Round)

Who They Should Have Taken: Dwight Gooden, while Gooden developed character issues and made questionable decisions while with the Mets, he was still a very good pitcher – it’s possible the New York pressure contributed to the issues he had. Maybe with a smaller market, things would have been different for Gooden.

(While Bonds and Johnson are bigger names, they fell into the later rounds – meaning every team passed on them at least once, so you can’t knock the Twins for ‘missing’ them).

1983 – 1^st Pick Overall: Tim Belcher (Pitcher)

About The Pick: Belcher was actually a solid starting pitcher in the majors; the problem was – it wasn’t for the Twins. The team could not reach a contract agreement with their first round pick (they were not offering enough money, according to Belcher) and Belcher returned to college rather than taking the smaller contract. At least if you whiff on an early pick, that player still PLAYED for your organization. Not signing the overall number one pick was a large misstep for the Twins.

Who They Missed: Kurt Stillwell (2^nd), Roger Clemons (19^th)

Who They Should Have Taken: With the benefit of 20/20 hindsight, Clemons is the obvious star in an otherwise lackluster class

1987 – 3^rd Pick Overall: Willie Banks (Pitcher)

As far as picks go, Banks is far from the worst one the Twins have had. He made his first appearance with the Twins during their 1991 championship run and managed to work as a serviceable starter for the next two seasons. In 1993, Banks was dealt to the Cubs and the curse of the goat (or whatever hex the Cubs have) took over. Banks was never the same and bounced around with five other clubs until 2002.

Who They Missed: Jack McDowell (5^th), Kevin Appier (9^th), Craig Biggio (22^nd)

Who They Should Have Taken: McDowell, or even Mike Remlinger (16^th) would have been solid pitchers, Biggio would have been a franchise bat. Of that group, I’d say Biggio was the best option.

1991 – 3^rd Pick Overall: Dave McCarty (1B)

McCarty was drafted with the expectation of being a power slugging first base staple for the future. In his stints in the minors, McCarty looked to fit that part perfectly, slugging in top percentages of the league and showing the propensity for power.

McCarty can best be described as an AAAA (4A) player, however. Once McCarty hit the majors, the average and power simply did not translate. He barely hit above .200 in 167 games as a Twin and only pushed across three home runs. It’s not uncommon to see a player who simply doesn’t translate well to the major league level, but when it’s the third overall pick – it certainly is a disappointment.

Who They Missed: Dmitri Young (4^th – an ACTUAL power hitter), Manny Ramirez (14^th), Cliff Floyd (16^th – Once again, a power hitter and a firstbaseman to boot), Mike Sweeney (262^nd), Nomar Garciaparra (130^th)

Who They Should Have Taken: This draft hurts worse than most simply because of how badly the team missed. They wanted a power bat and they missed four of them. Cliff Floyd was the exact player they were looking for (power, 1B) and they missed.

1996 – 2^nd Pick Overall: Travis Lee (1B)

Once again, the Twins front office messed up this pick as much as possible. Just like they did in 1983, the Twins failed to sign Lee to a contract and ended up with nothing to show for the number two overall pick. While Lee never became a superstar, the fact the Twins walked away with nothing makes this one of the worst drafts in the team’s history.

Who They Missed: Eric Chavez (10^th), Jake Westbrook (21^st), Gil Meche (22^nd), Jimmy Rollins (46^th), Roy Oswalt (684^th),

Who They Should Have Taken: This is sort of a spotty draft class, with no real superstar to be found in the first round. So it’s not like the Twins failed to sign a pick while the next Ken Griffey Jr. sat waiting. However, when you fail to sign a pick at all, any player – even a simple, solid, everyday starter like the fellows above, are better options. Jimmy Rollins is the obvious “coulda-woulda-shoulda” but Eric Chavez is the more realistic pick.

1999 – 5^th Pick Overall: BJ Garbe (OF)

This is a big whiff. Garbe, selected out of high school, never made it any higher than AA ball in the Twins system. His average floated around .190 during three years in the Twins’ farm system before he retired from baseball.

Who They Missed: (Warning: This list hurts the most) Barry Zito (9^th), Ben Sheets (10^th), Alex Rios (19^th), Brian Roberts (50^th), Carl Crawford (52^nd), Brandon Phillips (57^th), Jake Peavy (472^nd) – ALBERT PUJOLS (402^nd)

Who They Should Have Taken: Okay, with 20/20 hindsight the obvious pick is Pujols, but given that he fell into the 13^th round – clearly every major league club had him ranked well below where he should have been. The realistic pick would have been either Zito or Sheets. Rios and Crawford would have filled the OF void that they drafted Garbe for and Roberts, Phillips and Peavy are franchise players who would have made a great impact on this team.

2000 – 2^nd Overall Pick: Adam Johnson (Pitcher)

Johnson pitched for the Twins from 2001 to 2005. His career ERA as 10.25. Enough said.

Who They Missed: Chase Utley (15^th), Cliff Lee (105^th),

Who They Should Have Taken: 2000 was a shallow draft with very little in the way of big stars. Utley is the best pick on the board in the early rounds and Lee is the best player – but when the draft is filled with role players, it’s hard to fault the Twins for “missing” at number 2.

2001 – 1^st Overall Pick: Joe Mauer

Mauer has won three batting titles, one AL MVP award and appeared in four All-Star games. He is the face of the Twins franchise and a superstar in Major League Baseball. While is pick was initially shunned by Twins fans (who thought they should take the fireball pitcher – Mark Prior) it’s clear that management got this one right.

Who They Missed: Mark Prior (2^nd – this is “missed” in a good way), Mark Teixeira (5^th),

Who They Should Have Taken: Joe Mauer – no exceptions

There are some interesting trends to point out here:

1)      The Twins picked third in each of the years they won the World Series

2)      The Twins have had high picks in bad classes (1983, 1996, 2000)

3)      They just missed Ken Griffey Jr, and Adrian Gonzalez (Drafted prior to their picks in 1993 and 2000)

4)      The 2^nd overall pick has not been kind to the Twins

5)      The Twins pick 2^nd this year

History is not on the Twins’ side when it comes to high draft picks. (Essentially they're 1 for 8, or .125 in terms of BA). Fans can take solace in the fact that a) the last high draft pick the Twins had turned out to be a good one and b) the team doesn’t pick high that often (meaning they usually are good).

Time will tell if the Twins’ number two pick in the 2012 draft is the move that help start another winning tradition or a pick that will live with the seven other “flops” listed above.