Don’t look now, but the Twins may have stumbled onto some starting pitching. While it may be too early to call the Twins’ starters “back” from their league worst ERA, fans can tentatively call this staff “improved”.
Francisco Liriano started the hope train last week against Oakland as he went 6 strong innings, holding the A’s lineup scoreless and striking out 9. It was the first appearance of the “good” Liriano – a player whose existence we only knew of due to a strong spring outing. Fans were right to be hesitant, as one good start does not necessarily mean Liriano’s woes were behind him.
When Liriano took to the mound on Tuesday night, fans once again saw the “good” version. Although he didn’t earn the win, Liriano still managed to pitch 6 innings, allowing only 4 hits and 1 earned run while striking out 8.
We’ve all seen too much “bad” Liriano to feel comfortable every time he takes the mound, but two consecutive solid outings have brought back a little glimmer of hope that Liriano can and will be the staff “ace” the team needs him to be. (Or, more importantly, the valuable trade chip the team needs him to be).
Blackburn’s Back(?):
Nick Blackburn has been atrocious this season. In 7 games, he had a 1-4 record with an era above 8. He seemed to be getting shelled each time he took to the mound (he had given up an average of 1 home run per appearance). When the Twins announced that Blackburn would be the pitcher to fill in for Pavano, fans appropriately responded with an exasperated sigh. We’ve been on this ride before, and we don’t like the trip.
Funny thing about Nick Blackburn; every now and again he looks absolutely dominate. Blackburn typically finds his groove in May – his career ERA is 3.51 in the 5th month – that’s .70 lower than any other month. May 2012 came and went, and Blackburn did not have his usual strong month. Instead, Blackburn posted an ERA of 11.08 in May and only pitched 13 innings for the entire month due to injuries.
It’s possible that June is the month where Blackburn will hit his stride. Last night’s 5 inning, 2 earned run outing was Balckburn’s best start of the season. He threw only one truly poor pitch all evening – a ball left over the middle for Yuniesky Betancourt to pound over the outfield fence. Outside of that Blackburn kept control of his pitches, kept the walks to a minimum and held the Royals off the base path.
By now, we know better than to expect Blackburn to put dominate performances like this up night after night – but if Blackburn can at least put a solid June together, the Twins should be able to squeak out a few more wins.
Cart Fully In Front Of The Horse:
I’m getting way ahead of myself here – I’m fully aware of that, but one can’t help but wonder…what if the Twins keep this up? Their pitching had been the Achilles heel of the team during the beginning of the system – with Scott Diamond (4-1, 1.86 ERA) PJ Walters (2-1, 3.69 ERA) Cole De Vries (1-1 4.20 ERA) acting as the three most reliable starters and Francisco Liriano and Nick Blackburn putting things back to where they were expected to be – the Twins might keep this pace up.
Looking ahead, the Twins have the following series lined up in June:
3 Vs Cubs (19-37)
- These are 3 very winnable games. The Cubs have an anemic offense and a questionable bullpen. Furthermore, the Cubs are on a cold streak and the Twins are riding a hot streak. If momentum means anything, the advantage goes to the Twins
4 Vs Phillies (28-30)
- The Phillies are a good team that’s playing under their expectations. With as tough as the NL East appears to be this season, this series will be a good indicator of just how “real” this winning streak is.
3 Vs Brewers (25-31)
- The Brewers have struggled to be consistent this season. The Twins took two out of three in Milwaukee last month and realistically should do the same at home.
3 @ Pirates (28-27)
- If you haven’t picked up on it by now, the NL Central is not very good. That’s a good thing for the Twins. This is yet another winnable series against an opponent who is having a rough year.
3 @ Reds (31-24)
- Cincinnati is a solid team that’s playing very good baseball. This won’t be an easy series, but it’s another team that the Twins are certainly capable of hanging around with.
3 Vs White Sox (31-25)
- The White Sox are outplaying their expectations and are in first place in the AL Central. The Twins played the Sox close in their last meeting, winning one and allowing another to slip away in the late innings.
3 Vs Royals (24-31)
- The Twins are 3-2 against the Royals this season but it you get the feeling they just have their number. While the series is close now, the Twins have looked to be the better team in all 5 outings.
Of that group, only three teams have a winning record (Cincinnati, Pittsburgh & the White Sox) and three of them (Milwaukee, Cubs, Kansas City) are slumping. If we are to assume the Twins’ pitching is going to return to league average numbers and that the offense will be similar to the present construction (IE no injuries), it’s not unexpected to see the Twins winning 4 of the 6 series and going 14-8 over their next 22 games. That would put them at 36-42, 6 games under .500 and depending on how the division breaks down, in reach of the top.
Does That Change The Plan?
To clarify, the “plan” as it has been assumed for months now, is that the Twins would be major sellers at the trade deadline. Francisco Liriano, Carl Pavano, Josh Willingham, Matt Capps, Jamey Carroll, Justin Morneau and Ryan Doumit were all considered assets the team was likely to move in order to rebuild their farm system and prepare the team for 2013 and 2014.
What happens if they start winning and, hypothetically, are at or slightly above .500 by the All-Star break? With the rest of the AL Central down, it isn’t unreasonable to think the Twins could have a shot at the division title by finishing with a slightly above .500 record. Do they stand pat and try to contend if they’re close?
In a word: no. If the Twins continue their present pace and win at a .600 clip – they would finish with a W/L of 86-76. That’s probably good enough to win the division or at last good enough to snag one of the wild card spots for the playoffs.
The likelihood the Twins would win 60% of their remaining games is low – given the precedent set so far this season. More importantly, this team needs depth. Their farm system was depleted after the Bill Smith era. Their recently drafted players are not going to make an impact for many years. There’s talent ready to come up in Miguel Sano, Kyle Gibson, Alex Wimmers, Deolis Guerra, Aaron Hicks, Joe Benson and Chris Parmelee but the team needs more pitching and positional depth.
It may be hard to do, especially given the constant losing this team has faced over the past year and a half, but regardless of their standings at the deadline, I think the Twins need to sell.
Keep Joe Mauer, Denard Span, Ben Revere, Brian Dozier and Trevor Plouffe and use the other assets listed above to acquire starting pitching and more positional depth. In 2 to 3 years time, the Twins will have a full youth movement much like Washington is experiencing now; good young players who have made the team competitive once again. By sacrificing the now and focusing on the future, the team can make that youth movement even stronger.
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