One Last 25 Man 'Guestimation'

As we approach the end of spring training and (finally) get close to real baseball most major league rosters start to take shape. Outside of the A’s and Mariners, who have already played meaningful games this season in Japan, most teams have a few last minute moves to make. As of this morning, the Twins currently have 34 players in camp meaning that in the next eight days, 9 players will have to be let go.

We’ve already touched on the interesting developments that were launched last week when Ron Gardenhire claimed that Josh Willingham would be starting in left and that Revere would likely be a utility outfielder. Since that announcement, the Twins have only made a few moves, including sending Joe Benson and Jeff Maship down to AAA for more seasoning.

Barring any significant changes or major injuries (knock on wood) I’d wager that the Twins opening day roster will look something like this:

1B: Parmelee

2B: Casilla

SS: Carroll

3B: Valencia

LF: Willingham

CF: Span

RF: Doumit

DH: Morneau

Bench: Hughes, Plouffe, Burroughs, Revere

This lineup would manage to cover a lot of needs while still packing an offensive punch. It’s been stated that the Twins want to keep Doumit’s bat in the lineup at all times, meaning he’s likely to be wearing multiple hats (or gloves in this case) pending the pitching matchup and who needs a day off.

I’m assuming that the Twins will platoon 1B between Morneau, Mauer, Parmelee and Doumit with the later two taking the most reps. RF will likely be a platoon of Plouffe, Doumit and Parmelee and catcher will see Mauer and Doumit trading places off and on.

The beauty of this lineup is that it allows flexibility without leaving the Twins exposed. If Mauer were to get hurt during a game, a simple double switch moves Doumit to catcher and Plouffe or Revere can come into RF to fill in if needed. Hughes and Burroughs could cover 1B in a pinch as well.

Ben Revere, last season’s rising star of the outfield seems to have fallen out of favor (I’d wager his less than stellar arm strength is the major factor there). However, Revere’s speed and ability to cover ground in the outfield cannot be overstated. He’ll likely be used as a late inning defensive replacement (much like Jason Repko was last season) primarily taking over left field or center (with Span shifting to right if needed). With Revere’s poor arm strength, I would avoid putting him in RF as any grounder to the outfield could quickly turn ugly with a fast man on base. However, it seems Gardy and the Twins front office seem to think Revere can play everywhere, so he’ll likely sub in for all 3 outfield spots.

Plouffe’s power, Parmelee’s great vision, average and power and Burroughs’ all around play all earned them spots on the opening day roster that I doubt they originally would have had. This is especially true for Parmelee, who for all intents and purposes looked like he was destined for AAA to get more seasoning, but simply played too well to NOT make the team.

Starting Pitchers:

Pavano

Liriano

Baker

Blackburn

Marquis

This is where I begin to become concerned about the 2012 Twins’ chances to compete for the Central Division. While Liriano has shown signs of dominance again, Baker is battling injuries, Blackburn is historically a ‘hit-or-miss’ starter while Pavano and Marquis are gritty inning eaters at this point in their careers. When your starting pitching puts a lot of balls into play, especially to a defense that is suspect to making a poor play – you’re going to struggle.

IF Liriano becomes an ace again and Baker is able to stay healthy, I think this rotation is in good shape. IF Pavano can keep his ERA low and eat 8 innings a game, this rotation will be very competitive. Finally, IF Marquis cannot blow up and Blackburn pitches consistently this rotation can be great. I’m holding out all hope for “Good” – anything else is a bonus.

Bullpen:

Duensing

Swarzak

Maloney

Burton

Gray

Perkins

Capps

No pressure gentlemen, but a lot of the losses from 2011 started with this aspect of the team. (Granted no offense from injuries and poor starting pitching didn’t help, but the Twins bullpen gave away many games that should have been Ws last season too).

Supposedly Capps was injured last season and that is the source of his horrendous outing. Fine, I’ll take the Twins’ word for it. However, it should be known that he has a tremendously short leash with the fans. Any signs of the same garbage he threw last year and the support for him will diminish faster than anyone can possibly comprehend. A large majority of the fan base wanted nothing to do with Capps coming back, and yet the first move the Twins made was to welcome Capps back with open arms.

The closer is the only spot that concerns me. Duensing, Swarzak and Perkins have all proven to be reliable pitchers and Maloney, Gray and Burton have all had great springs that warrant a spot on the roster. All this bullpen has to do is not blow up and they’ll be markedly better than last season’s team.

The first to get called up…

Outfield: Joe Benson – Benson had a fantastic spring by all accounts. He has shown that he is a great defensive asset in the outfield and his bat has greatly improved as well. The first time Span, Willingham or Plouffe go down (or if Revere is traded) look for Benson to make the trip to Minneapolis.

Infield: Brain Dozier – Dozier played fantastic ball this spring but lost out on a roster spot simply due to the fact that the organization thought he was too good to be utility player off of the bench. If the traditionally fragile Casilla or the aging Carroll ends up on the DL, look for Dozier to move to the majors. Pending on how quickly he acclimates, that may be a one way trip.

Pitching: If a starter goes down for an extended period of time or simply has to miss a start, I look for the Twins to pull Swarzak from the ‘pen and use him as the ‘next man up’. If the bullpen were to get dinged up I’d wager that Manship would be the next guy to get the call. It was slightly surprising to see him sent down to AAA as I thought he was going to make the team as the last bullpen arm. It’s been speculated Manship was sent to AAA in order to stretch his arm out so he could fill in as a starter if needed.

That’s my 2-cents on how the Twins roster will end up when everything is said and done. As long as they aren’t carrying 3 catchers into the start of the season, I’ll be a happy fan.

The Great Spring Shake Up

Just when we thought the Twins’ lineup was more or less set for the upcoming campaign, a passing comment from Ron Gardenhire turned everything we knew on its head. Since the start of spring training, the common assumption was that the lineup would look something like this:

C: Mauer

1B: Morneau

2B: Casilla

SS: Carroll

3B: Valencia

LF: Revere

CF: Span

RF: Willingham

DH: Doumit

Bench: Butera, Plouffe, Hughes, Nishioka

That all changed on Sunday when Gardy made the following comment when asked about the Twins outfield “Let’s call Willingham my left fielder”. Boom. In one sentence, Gardy took what had been a fairly mundane and by-the-book spring training and made it extremely interesting as we have a little bit of a roster competition brewing in the last weeks of spring training.

Since Willingham was signed, it appeared that he was destined to play right field, despite being primarily a left fielder during most of his career. The thought was that Ben Revere (the supposed starting left fielder…more on that in a minute) didn’t have the arm strength to play right, thus forcing Willingham into right simply by necessity.

With Gardy changing things up and moving Willingham back to his natural position, the rest of the roster seems primed for a shake-up. Ben Revere, once thought to be cemented into a starting role (or at the very least in a platoon with Trevor Plouffe) has lost some momentum with management according to various beat reporters following the Twins this spring. In fact, when listing his right field options Gardy included surging hitter Chris Parmelee. In addition, Gardy has referred to Revere as likely being "the team's 4th outfielder" in a recent interview with Twins media members. 

But wait – there’s more! The story keeps building on this one move:

For a majority of the spring, it was assumed that Parmelee was going to be the victim of a talent logjam, losing out a roster spot simply because Morneau, Mauer and Doumit all stood in his way. Being included in the right field race opens the door a little bit wider for Parmelee to make the team on opening day.

Even if Parmelee doesn’t make the team as a starting right fielder, he will likely make the team as the starting first baseman. In addition to the outfield shakeup, Gardy has been trying new things in the infield that could indicate his intentions to start the season. Over the past two weeks Morneau has been used primarily as a DH and there seems to be a consensus in the organization that Parmelee has essentially played his way onto the roster.

The Twins front office has been impressed not only with his power and ability to hit for average (around .600 this spring) but also Parmelee’s increased plate discipline. In the end, it may just be that Parmelee is playing too good to leave off the starting roster.

These moves have further trickle down effects. It was originally assumed that Doumit was going to be utilized as primarily a DH, meaning the Twins would have to carry 3 catchers to accommodate days when Doumit DH’d and Mauer caught. If Morneau becomes the primary DH, that frees up Doumit to act as an outfielder (right field), back up 1B or even as the catcher for Mauer’s off days. Essentially, Drew Butera loses his roster spot because he is no longer necessary for “insurance” (The Twins offense just got better with that move alone…)

Sorry Drew...

Between Revere’s  falling star and Parmelee’s amazing spring play, this offense is starting to look more dangerous and is actually posing a few problems for the Twins (mainly too much talent, too few positions to play them. This is also known as ‘a good problem to have’). Assuming that things break the way we discussed above, I would theorize the Twins’ opening day lineup would look like this:

C: Mauer

1B: Parmelee

2B: Casilla

SS: Carroll

3B: Valencia

LF: Willingham

CF: Span

RF: Doumit

DH: Morneau

Bench: Hughes[1], Plouffe[2], Revere[3], Burroughs[4]

(Essentially the Twins would shift to a rotating platoon in RF based on the situation / other starters. Doumit starts in RF if Mauer catches, Plouffe or Parmelee fill in as needed in right when Mauer is at 1B and Doumit catches and Revere acts as a rotating OF / defensive replacement late in games).

This roster is something the 2011 roster was not; deep. The outfield has potential backups in Revere / Plouffe / Parmelee / Doumit and Hughes (in a pinch) and the infield is covered by Burroughs and Hughes and Dozier is likely a short plane ride away if either Casilla or Carroll get injured.

It's also entirely possible that Plouffe starts the season on the DL due to a hamstring injury. In that case the Twins could be bold and let Joe Benson start the year in the majors and platoon him based on where Doumit is playing, but I'd wager they would likely fill the spot with Brian Dinkleman in the short term.

Further more, how much more formidable is this offense now that a third catcher is unlikely to be a necessity? Parmelee, Morneau (when healthy) Doumit, Willingham, Valencia and Plouffe all have the potential to be dangerous power hitters (Hughes could arguably be added to that grouping as well). Combined with higher average / speed players such as Casilla, Carroll, Span and Mauer – this offense is sneaky dangerous.

Following 2011, it was easy to feel a little down on the Twins. Suddenly, however, this logjam of talent has this fan in particular even more optimistic about a turn around in 2012 and at the very least watching a competitive team for most of this season.

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[1] Hughes is out of options but would likely make the team anyway with his play this spring. He swings the bat well and is a capable infield backup for both Casilla and Carroll.

[2] The Twins want to keep Doumit's bat in the lineup, so I could see RF as being the best destination for a majority of his games. On days where Doumit is catching or DHing, look for Plouffe or Revere to start based on the starting pitcher matchup.

[3] I see the Twins using Revere as a pinch runner and defensive replacement late in games. Combined with Span, the range of the Twins’ outfield increases to ‘scary good’ when Revere is on the field.

[4] Burroughs has swung the bat well and can play nearly every infield position. He beats out Dozier only because the Twins want Dozier to see everyday at bats.

Nishioka Sent Down

The Twins have announced they are demoting Japanese import Tsuyoshi Nishioka to AAA Rochester. Let that sink in a little Twins fans. It almost makes you queasy when you think about it. Since his debut last season, Nishioka has been outmatched at the plate, horrible in the field and seemingly lost in general in regards to acclimating to the big leagues.

Nishioka has been a $14 million gamble that has failed to pan out in any aspect. When you factor in the moves made to facilitate Nishioka into the Twins system (mainly trading JJ Hardy for  two throw away minor leaguers) it’s hard to see this as anything but a horrible mark on the Twins organization.

While that much may be true, I think Twins fans can take some of this as positive news. How does a $14 million bust bring about positive thoughts?

1. The Typically Stubborn Twins Have Admitted They Made A Mistake.

While the front office didn’t come out and say “We were wrong” the fact remains; optioning Nishioka to AAA is essentially an admission of failure on their part. This organization has been notoriously stubborn with players over the past few years – leaving players on the field that fans cannot stand or that don’t necessarily warrant a roster spot (Drew Butera, Delmon Young), moving players that don’t get along with management or fit into the Twin’s system (JJ Hardy, Jason Bartlett). Essentially, when the Twins get stuck on a player, they tend to drag their heels when it comes time to make a change.

By optioning their prized signing to AAA and clearing the spot on the 25 man roster the Twins have both admitted failure and done something about it. This is a refreshing change of pace.

2. The 25 Man Roster Has A New Opening

The Twins depth was going to be an issue coming into this season simply due to the need to carry 3 catchers. It was originally assumed that Nishioka would make the team as a sort of utility infielder. A utility infielder who has suspect defense at best and no bat to speak of… (yay?) Essentially, the Twins stubbornness was going to cost a valuable roster spot.

Now, with Nishioka out of the way, Luke Hughes or Trevor Plouffe have an increased chance to make the team. Hughes is out of minor league options and would have to clear waivers to be sent to the minors meaning the Twins were likely to lose him if optioned. Hughes provides solid defense and a potentially dangerous bat off the bench – something that no organization can overvalue. Hughes can cover 1^st, 2^nd, 3^rd and the outfield in a pinch making his addition to the bench a valuable one.

Trevor Plouffe, the newly converted outfielder provides added depth for a late inning pinch hitter or even to work as a platoon player with Ben Revere based on matchups.

Plouffe or Hughes were likely to make the team, but the original odds didn’t favor both making the opening day roster. With Nishioka out of the way, both Hughes and Plouffe are likely to be on the bench come opening day. That’s depth that adds great value for the Twins.

3. Nishioka Could Improve With Seasoning

It’s been no secret that Nishioka has been overmatched in every phase of the game during his brief time with the Twins. ESPN’s Buster Olney spoke with multiple talent evaluators who classified Nishioka as “lost” this spring.

The upside to sending Nishioka to AAA is that he will now have an opportunity to play everyday (something he couldn’t do in the majors) and will have the opportunity to play against lesser quality pitchers. The potential is there for Nishioka to find his swing and work on his infield defense, thereby making him a viable option as a utility infielder later in the season (or in 2013) should the need arise.

Yes, I realize this is a long shot given what Nishioka has shown so far, but it stands to reason, the only way Nishioka will ever improve is through practice and repetition, things he would not achieve riding the pine in Minneapolis.

4. This May Force The Twins' Hand

Whether that force is to make a move during the season or simply admit defeat and look to 2013-2014 and the young class coming up (Parmelee, Benson, Dozier, Sano) the fact remains, Jamey Carroll is not the solution to the Twins middle infield woes. I’d imagine that the Twins will ride out the first half of the season and see how things break. If they find themselves within range of contention, their total lack of depth at short could force them to go after a 2B/SS hybrid player at the deadline.

Alternatively, if the Twins reach the end of July and are nowhere near the Tigers/Royals/Indians/White Sox (probably in that order too) or the wild card, the weak infield may be the final straw to enter ‘rebuilding mode’. This switch could see the Twins moving everyone outside of the young core (Mauer, Span, Revere, possibly Plouffe, Valencia and the AAA future players I listed above). In some aspects, this wouldn’t be a bad thing. Yes, it would be hard to swallow as the team that dominated in 2010 was blown to bits in 2012, but the fact that there is talent just below the surface on the way would lessen the blow.

Admittedly, the Twins could be making the above decisions even if Nishioka panned out – but I think holding a failed chip as big as Nishioka could encourage such decisions sooner rather than later.

5. The Bill Smith Era Mistakes Are Fading

Bill Smith’s decision making during his brief tenure as Twins GM can certainly be called questionable. The resulting moves left the Twins with no depth behind Mauer, very little ‘stud’ pitching and a depleted minor league organization that was unable to fill in for other Smith mistakes (a lack of infield, little in the way of power, no bullpen). Right now, the bright star of failure on the tree of mediocrity that was Bill Smith’s GM job is Nishioka. With his expulsion from the majors, fans don’t have to be reminded of the team that could have been (JJ Hardy at short, Matt Garza still in the rotation, Mauer at first, Wilson Ramos at catcher and Morneau playing full time DH…I’m tearing up).

Okay so this isn’t as optimistic as the other points, but that doesn’t make it any less valid.

With that change, I’d estimate the opening day roster would look like this:

C: Mauer

1B: Morneau

2B: Casilla

SS: Carroll

3B: Valencia

LF: Revere

CF: Span

RF: Willingham

DH: Doumit

Bench: Plouffe, Hughes, Butera, Dinkelman, Hollimon, (the former Tiger's prospect has been playing very good ball this spring. I think he beats out Dozier simply because the Twins want Dozier to get everyday at bats, rather than spot starts and pinch hits)

Starters: Pavano, Liriano, Baker, Blackburn, Marquis

‘Pen: Deunsing, Perkins, Capps, Hendriks, Burnett, Manship, Swarzak

I think Parmelee, Dozier and Benson could all be great candidates to make the opening day roster, but the Twins would prefer them to see more at bats. They'll likely start in AAA (possibly AA for Dozier) and work their way up. Look for Dozier to get the call if Carroll doesn't pan out and Benson to head up if there's an injury. I think Parmelee could be stuck unless Doumit or Morneau go down, in that case, he'll likely be the first to be called up.

Diggin' The Depth Chart: Catchers

We’ll begin to break down the 2012 Twins’ roster one piece at a time, starting with the most important piece of the puzzle for the team this year – catcher.

Catcher:

Depth Chart:

Joe Mauer

Ryan Doumit

Drew Butera

JR Towles

Rene Rivera

Looking Back:

In 2010, Joe Mauer signed a $184 million contract to become the face of the franchise and fixture behind home plate for the Twins for years to come. The hometown superstar had just come off a 2009 campaign that saw him put up incredible numbers .327/.402/.469/.373 (AVG/OBP/SLG/wOBA) making him well worth the money the Twins plunked down.

2011 saw Mauer diagnosed with nearly every malady one could imagine. He missed the first chunk of the season due to ‘bilateral leg weakness’ and missed additional time during the year for pneumonia and a plethora of other dings and scratches. These long absences had some Twins fans grumbling that Mauer wasn’t worth the money and that the organization made a mistake in signing him to such a long term deal.

I disagree.

In fact, I’d argue the opposite. All of Mauer’s missed time in 2011 proved that he was worth every penny of that $184 million. Why? Well, look at his 2011 split: .287/.360/.368 meanwhile, the American League average for catchers last year was: .238/.305/.391. In just 82 games, Mauer was able to put up numbers that surpassed the league average for catcher. In a season where he was behind the plate only 42 times and only took an at bat in 82 of 162 games – he still managed to post numbers higher than the league average.

So, no – Mauer is not the problem with the Twins, he’s the solution. The problem lies in the depth behind him.

Drew Butera played in 93 games last season, making a total of 254 plate appearances. He managed to run his bat into a few balls (he even hit 2 home runs…) but only put up an abysmal split of .167/.210/.239. In a word; atrocious. His defense behind the plate is better than most, which I’m sure is the reason that Gardy has been so loyal to him despite his Swiss cheese bat. Personally, I like Drew – I’ve seen him in enough interviews to get the feeling he’s an all around nice guy, I’m sure he’s a perfectly fine individual. But, as the Twins backup catcher – I cannot stand him.

Good defense aside, even being a nice guy can’t save you from those horrible offensive numbers.

Also appearing behind the plate for the Twins in 2011 were Rene Rivera (45 games, .144/.211/.202) and Steve Holm (6 games, .118/.167/.176) – when you put up numbers that make Drew Butera look like an offensive powerhouse – you clearly have no place on a major league roster.

Obviously, the problems at catcher for the Twins in 2011 did not start at the top with Mauer, but rather the bottom. There simply was no depth behind the All-Star. Essentially, the Twins didn’t have a ‘Plan B’ if Mauer went down. He did – it showed, and the result was a massive offensive void that no one could fill.

Looking Forward:

The Twins addressed the issues regarding depth by adding the very capable bat of Ryan Doumit as well as taking a flyer on potential backup J.R. Towles. Even with Doumit on the roster, I think the Twins will still end up carrying 3 catchers for a multitude of reasons.

Fist and foremost, they want to keep Mauer healthy all year. While he claims to be healthy and feeling great this year, he has had a history of slowly falling apart as the season wears on. Look for the Twins to put Mauer at first and DH and decent amount this season. They cannot afford to take his bat out of the lineup too often and they will certainly find ways to keep him hitting without the taxing toll that catching takes on his body.

Second, Doumit has shown durability issue of his own. The former Pirate has spent his fair share of time on the DL for various injuries and ailments. Much like Mauer, the Twins are going to be relying on Doumit’s bat for a lot of run production this year.

Finally, Doumit and Mauer will likely be playing alongside each other everyday. If one is the DH and one is catching, Gardy would be very limited in making any switches or covering for either Doumit or Mauer if they were to get nicked up during a game.

The need of a third catcher is obvious – but the real debate begins when we try to figure out who that will be. By all accounts, J.R. Towles seems to be leading the pack so far. He’s been hitting very well this spring and has shown signs of offensive power – something that the reserves last year clearly lacked. Towles does have a history of being a AAAA hitter, however (great in the minors, disappears once he’s in the show) so there has to at least be a little concern over his ability to keep this up.

In the end, I think we’ll end up seeing the catching depth chart look a little like this:

Mauer

Doumit

Butera

While I don’t believe that Butera deserves a place on the roster, I think the Twins front office and coaching staff simply like his defense too much to knock him down below Towles. While Towles doesn’t have a bad defensive game, he doesn’t have the familiarity with the staff that Butera does. In the end, I see that experience playing into Butera’s favor. The only way I see Towles trumping Butera is if he consistently outhits Butera and posts significantly better numbers this spring.

Even if Butera is the third catcher, I think the Twins will be much better off in 2012 than in 2011. Doumit is the back up bat the team desperately needed last season, and they have also learned that Mauer is an asset that needs to be protected. A change in approach in how the Twins use Mauer in conjunction with a better bat in Doumit signals a great turn around at catcher in 2012.

Later on this week I’ll break down the next major position of discussion

Predictions Sure To Go Wrong: The Opening Day Line Up

Spring training has (finally) begun and that means it’s time for amateur analysts, bloggers and sport writers alike to begin prognosticating the Twins roster for the upcoming season. While there is always a chance for an unknown to emerge during the first few weeks of spring training and claim a roster spot, the Twins roster almost seems set before the season even begins. (Pending, of course, any injuries).

Before I lay out my prediction for the opening day lineup, I’ll lay out a few of the assumptions I’m working on:

• The Twins will carry 3 catchers during most of this season: Mauer will not play everyday behind the plate (I believe he’ll shift to 1B much more frequently this season) and Doumit is likely to be the everyday DH as Gardy wants to keep his bat in the lineup at all times. That means that an emergency catcher will have to be kept on the bench.
• Luke Hughes is healthy and recovered from his offseason injury: Hughes has shown flashes of being a very capable infielder with a decent bat. He is out of minor league options and I don’t think the Twins want to send him through waivers.
• Ben Revere and Trevor Plouffe will platoon in left field
• While Joe Benson and Chris Parmelee may be major league ready, the Twins opt to start them in AAA to get more at bats before calling them up.
• J.R. Towles outperforms Butera in spring training and wins the roster spot
• Nishioka is sent to AAA to gain more experience

The Projections:

C: Joe Mauer

1B: Justin Morneau

2B: Alexi Casilla

SS: Jamey Carroll

3B: Danny Valencia

LF: Ben Revere

CF: Denard Span

RF: Josh Willingham

DH: Ryan Doumit

Bench: Luke Hughes, J.R. Towles, Trevor Plouffe, Rene Tosoni

It's not much of a stretch, I know - but most of the starters were easily cemented in after the off season. Most of the excitement this spring will come down to who makes the bench. I think those races will essentially come down to who can hold the most positions while not being a complete offensive liability.

On paper, I’m quite pleased with this lineup. If the team simply stays healthy, I think the Twins are at least looking at a .500 ball club. Best case scenario, Morneau recovers from his concussion and returns to 2010 form, Mauer figures out how to stay on the field for more than 82 games, Revere improves his hitting and Plouffe consistently shows power at the plate, Willingham mashes the ball and Doumit proves to be a great Kubel clone – I think this could be a sneaky contender team.

I won't go into the worst case scenario. Instead I can easily say - See: 2011 Twins. That's the worse case scenario.

It’s certainly not as fearsome as the lineup the Tigers are putting on the field this year, but it’s no slouch of a team either.

I’ll dive into specific players and positions later this spring, but for now let’s enjoy the start of a new season and the first spring training game. Go Twins!

The Bullpen Report: What exactly is plan B?

Surprising no one, the grand Joel Zumaya experiment that the Twins front office took on this offseason has crashed and burned spectacularly. The slightly surprising part was just how quickly Zumaya reverted back to his old injury prone ways. It's unfortunate that Zumaya couldn't stay healthy as his 'A game' is simply astounding. Reports from spring training had Zumaya hitting the high 90's on the radar gun and showing great control and ability to find the zone.
It's a little hard to believe that the Twins' front office thought Zumaya could be depended upon to be the right handed solution to last season's bullpen woes - but judging by the lack of any other moves during this off season, it would appear that it was a 'Zumaya or bust' outlook for the Twins staff. While some writers and fans have defended this approach, choosing to praise the Twins front office for taking a 'low risk, high reward' position, I tend to fall on the more negative side.

While I agree that signing Zumaya to a team friendly contract was in fact a great low risk, high reward move, I feel it was ridiculous to think that last season's sieve like bullpen would be solved with the addition of a pitcher whose ligaments are apparently made of five year old rubber bands. (Ever tried to stretch a five year old rubber band?) I would have preferred the Twins to use the Zumaya signing as the cherry on top of a series of bullpen signings. A nice addition - but hardly crucial to the structure of the sundae.

Making matters worse is the fact that this reliever market was actually decently deep with multiple stop gap guys available.While the Twins were never going to be realistic players for the likes of Heath Bell or even Ryan Madson, there were some cheap arms (Micah Owings, Chad Qualls, Luis Ayala) on the market. Even late into the winter, just prior to spring training, players such as Tod Coffey and Dan Wheeler were still on the market. (One could argue, however, when Tod Coffey and Dan Wheeler are looked at as improvements to your bullpen, you may already be in a bad place).

However, there's not much sense in mulling over the things you cannot change. Whether you believe the Twins were savvy to bid on Zumaya or simply foolish to put their trust in such a fragile arm, the fact remains - Joel Zumaya will not pitch for the Minnesota Twins in 2012.

All this boils down to the fact that the Twins are going to need to find a solution to their right handed bullpen problem heading into 2012. The free agent market has been reduced to fairly slim pickings (Michael Wuertz and Sergio Mitre are available but not much beyond that) and the trade market has not really developed yet. While the Rangers are supposedly shopping Koji Uehara, who is very much a prototypical Twins pitcher, I don't see the Twins taking on his near $4 million contract.

That means the solution for the Twins, as usual, comes from within. The most likely player to step into this role would be Anthony Swarzak, who showed good stuff on occasion during his call up in 2011. Others such as Lester Oliveros, Matt Maloney or Jeff Gray certainly have an opportunity to step into this role as well.

In the end, the Twins are not much further along today than they were at this point one year ago. Essentially, they've brought a large assortment of arms to spring training and are hoping that a few of the arms will stick. While this strategy failed (spectacularly) last season, I am hoping that they may have more luck this year. The cast of characters this year (Oliveros, Maloney, Gray, Alex Burnett, Terry Doyle, Jared Burton among others) at least has potential.

Maybe it's baseless optimism, but I get the feeling that Swarzak will be the right handed bullpen solution that Glen Perkins was for lefties last year. Spring training will tell us a lot, but if I had to pencil in the bullpen today I'd wager it would look like this:

Closer: Matt Capps
Set-Up: Glen Perkins (L)
Set-Up: Anthony Swarzak (R)
Middle Relief: Lester Oliveros, Alex Burnett, Terry Doyle
Long Relief: Brian Duensing, Scott Diamond

Not exactly a cast of characters that puts terror in the hearts of opposing batters, but there is enough potential there to at least feel optimistic for the coming year. Late relief did the Twins in last year. If Capps can return to his usual (I.E. non 2011) self, the closer role will be much better off (Capps was second in blown saves last year, behind only the Cubs' Carlos Marmol). With the underrated Perkins or (hopefully surprising) Swarzak bridging the late innings this bullpen starts to look a little better.

In the end; it's early and spring training has only just begun. Seven months from now we could be looking at that bullpen and calling it the best bullpen ever assembled. Alternatively, we could be staring at another 90 loss season and grumbling about how this team needs to be blown up and rebuilt. Isn't that uncertainty and excitement what makes baseball so great?

Coming soon: A 2012 breakdown and forecast for the Twins hitters. Did the busy offseason improve last year's anemic offense or are the loses of Cuddyer and Kubel too much to overcome?