Surprising no one, the grand Joel Zumaya experiment that the Twins front office took on this offseason has crashed and burned spectacularly. The slightly surprising part was just how quickly Zumaya reverted back to his old injury prone ways. It's unfortunate that Zumaya couldn't stay healthy as his 'A game' is simply astounding. Reports from spring training had Zumaya hitting the high 90's on the radar gun and showing great control and ability to find the zone.
It's a little hard to believe that the Twins' front office thought Zumaya could be depended upon to be the right handed solution to last season's bullpen woes - but judging by the lack of any other moves during this off season, it would appear that it was a 'Zumaya or bust' outlook for the Twins staff. While some writers and fans have defended this approach, choosing to praise the Twins front office for taking a 'low risk, high reward' position, I tend to fall on the more negative side.
While I agree that signing Zumaya to a team friendly contract was in fact a great low risk, high reward move, I feel it was ridiculous to think that last season's sieve like bullpen would be solved with the addition of a pitcher whose ligaments are apparently made of five year old rubber bands. (Ever tried to stretch a five year old rubber band?) I would have preferred the Twins to use the Zumaya signing as the cherry on top of a series of bullpen signings. A nice addition - but hardly crucial to the structure of the sundae.
Making matters worse is the fact that this reliever market was actually decently deep with multiple stop gap guys available.While the Twins were never going to be realistic players for the likes of Heath Bell or even Ryan Madson, there were some cheap arms (Micah Owings, Chad Qualls, Luis Ayala) on the market. Even late into the winter, just prior to spring training, players such as Tod Coffey and Dan Wheeler were still on the market. (One could argue, however, when Tod Coffey and Dan Wheeler are looked at as improvements to your bullpen, you may already be in a bad place).
However, there's not much sense in mulling over the things you cannot change. Whether you believe the Twins were savvy to bid on Zumaya or simply foolish to put their trust in such a fragile arm, the fact remains - Joel Zumaya will not pitch for the Minnesota Twins in 2012.
All this boils down to the fact that the Twins are going to need to find a solution to their right handed bullpen problem heading into 2012. The free agent market has been reduced to fairly slim pickings (Michael Wuertz and Sergio Mitre are available but not much beyond that) and the trade market has not really developed yet. While the Rangers are supposedly shopping Koji Uehara, who is very much a prototypical Twins pitcher, I don't see the Twins taking on his near $4 million contract.
That means the solution for the Twins, as usual, comes from within. The most likely player to step into this role would be Anthony Swarzak, who showed good stuff on occasion during his call up in 2011. Others such as Lester Oliveros, Matt Maloney or Jeff Gray certainly have an opportunity to step into this role as well.
In the end, the Twins are not much further along today than they were at this point one year ago. Essentially, they've brought a large assortment of arms to spring training and are hoping that a few of the arms will stick. While this strategy failed (spectacularly) last season, I am hoping that they may have more luck this year. The cast of characters this year (Oliveros, Maloney, Gray, Alex Burnett, Terry Doyle, Jared Burton among others) at least has potential.
Maybe it's baseless optimism, but I get the feeling that Swarzak will be the right handed bullpen solution that Glen Perkins was for lefties last year. Spring training will tell us a lot, but if I had to pencil in the bullpen today I'd wager it would look like this:
Closer: Matt Capps
Set-Up: Glen Perkins (L)
Set-Up: Anthony Swarzak (R)
Middle Relief: Lester Oliveros, Alex Burnett, Terry Doyle
Long Relief: Brian Duensing, Scott Diamond
Not exactly a cast of characters that puts terror in the hearts of opposing batters, but there is enough potential there to at least feel optimistic for the coming year. Late relief did the Twins in last year. If Capps can return to his usual (I.E. non 2011) self, the closer role will be much better off (Capps was second in blown saves last year, behind only the Cubs' Carlos Marmol). With the underrated Perkins or (hopefully surprising) Swarzak bridging the late innings this bullpen starts to look a little better.
In the end; it's early and spring training has only just begun. Seven months from now we could be looking at that bullpen and calling it the best bullpen ever assembled. Alternatively, we could be staring at another 90 loss season and grumbling about how this team needs to be blown up and rebuilt. Isn't that uncertainty and excitement what makes baseball so great?
Coming soon: A 2012 breakdown and forecast for the Twins hitters. Did the busy offseason improve last year's anemic offense or are the loses of Cuddyer and Kubel too much to overcome?
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