Predictions Sure To Go Wrong: The Opening Day Line Up

Spring training has (finally) begun and that means it’s time for amateur analysts, bloggers and sport writers alike to begin prognosticating the Twins roster for the upcoming season. While there is always a chance for an unknown to emerge during the first few weeks of spring training and claim a roster spot, the Twins roster almost seems set before the season even begins. (Pending, of course, any injuries).

Before I lay out my prediction for the opening day lineup, I’ll lay out a few of the assumptions I’m working on:

• The Twins will carry 3 catchers during most of this season: Mauer will not play everyday behind the plate (I believe he’ll shift to 1B much more frequently this season) and Doumit is likely to be the everyday DH as Gardy wants to keep his bat in the lineup at all times. That means that an emergency catcher will have to be kept on the bench.
• Luke Hughes is healthy and recovered from his offseason injury: Hughes has shown flashes of being a very capable infielder with a decent bat. He is out of minor league options and I don’t think the Twins want to send him through waivers.
• Ben Revere and Trevor Plouffe will platoon in left field
• While Joe Benson and Chris Parmelee may be major league ready, the Twins opt to start them in AAA to get more at bats before calling them up.
• J.R. Towles outperforms Butera in spring training and wins the roster spot
• Nishioka is sent to AAA to gain more experience

The Projections:

C: Joe Mauer

1B: Justin Morneau

2B: Alexi Casilla

SS: Jamey Carroll

3B: Danny Valencia

LF: Ben Revere

CF: Denard Span

RF: Josh Willingham

DH: Ryan Doumit

Bench: Luke Hughes, J.R. Towles, Trevor Plouffe, Rene Tosoni

It's not much of a stretch, I know - but most of the starters were easily cemented in after the off season. Most of the excitement this spring will come down to who makes the bench. I think those races will essentially come down to who can hold the most positions while not being a complete offensive liability.

On paper, I’m quite pleased with this lineup. If the team simply stays healthy, I think the Twins are at least looking at a .500 ball club. Best case scenario, Morneau recovers from his concussion and returns to 2010 form, Mauer figures out how to stay on the field for more than 82 games, Revere improves his hitting and Plouffe consistently shows power at the plate, Willingham mashes the ball and Doumit proves to be a great Kubel clone – I think this could be a sneaky contender team.

I won't go into the worst case scenario. Instead I can easily say - See: 2011 Twins. That's the worse case scenario.

It’s certainly not as fearsome as the lineup the Tigers are putting on the field this year, but it’s no slouch of a team either.

I’ll dive into specific players and positions later this spring, but for now let’s enjoy the start of a new season and the first spring training game. Go Twins!