Under The Radar: Ben Revere

Twins fans have known this for awhile, but it’s starting to become apparent to all baseball fans; Ben Revere is a great player.

The 5’ 9” right fielder has quietly been having a career year, batting .315 with a .348 OBP and .724 OPS while stealing 30 bases. Revere has been causing havoc for opposing teams all season. His plate discipline means he strikes out rarely (only 6.2% of his at bats end in a strikeout) and once he’s on base his speed and ability to steal mean the pitcher is always going to have something else on his mind.

Revere’s strikeout percentage isn’t even his most impressive stat. Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports wrote a very interesting article titled: 25 Things You Didn’t Know About Baseball – in which he points out just how good Ben Revere is at hitting balls in the strike zone. Revere has made contact with a ball in the zone 98.2% of the time he swings. That means only 15 (15!) times this year has Revere swung at a ball in the zone and missed. As you might have guessed, that is the best rate in baseball.

Twins fans who follow the team’s minor league players will tell you this is nothing new. In each level of the farm system, Revere has managed to hit for average, steal bases and generally be a nuisance to the opposing pitching staff. In fact, Revere has hit over .300 in every level he’s reached professionally (.379 in 2008 A-ball, .311 in 2009 A+ ball, .305 in 2010 AA ball, .303 in 2011 AAA ball) and has been a base stealer at each level (44 in 2008, 45 in 2009, 49 in 2010, 42 in 2011 – 34 in MLB, 8 in AAA).

Calling this season a career year is a disservice to Revere. It technically is a career year simply because his career has consisted of only two seasons – but if previous trends tell us anything about future results, Revere is going to keep putting up these numbers year in and year out.

Revere’s detractors like to claim that much of Revere’s success this season has been based entirely on luck. His bloop singles and infield hits are merely the result of a good bounce or a lucky break and can not be expected to continue in the coming years.

While it’s true that there is certainly luck in play with any ball put in play for a hit, arguing away Revere’s success as mere “luck” is shortsighted. Revere’s speed means that many balls hit to the infield are going to have a chance to become hits. You can’t knock Revere for using what is a large part of his game – his speed. The fact that a ball hit sharply to the short stop has a chance to become a hit for Revere is not luck – it’s a testament to his talent.

The other argument that is thrown out against Revere is that he’ll never hit for power. This much is true, Revere is likely to get his first home run by drilling a ball into the right field corner and running like heck rather than hitting one over the fence. That being said, every player doesn’t have to hit for power. So he’s not a five tool guy – what he does do is get on base, are we really going to nitpick over how he gets there?

The largest qualm Revere’s detractors have is with his arm. It is true that his arm is the weakest aspect of his overall game. However, if you’ve stuck around throughout this season to watch Twins games, you’ve likely noticed something. Revere’s arm seems to be improving. While subbing for the injured Denard Span in center field a few weeks ago, Revere made a couple of lighting bolt ‘strikes’ from center to second base, once even catching a very surprised base runner who though he had an easy double.

The easy solution to Revere’s weaker arm is to move him from right field to center – where he is more natural anyway. However, with Denard Span locked in at center, it looks like Revere will be sticking it out in right field for the foreseeable future.

All in all, the Twins have a dangerous outfielder on their roster that can score runs and get into the opposing pitcher’s head. His defense tracks down balls that would otherwise be doubles into the corner and his exuberant personality and enthusiasm for the game are infectious and fan friendly. Factor in his ability to contend for a batting title and you can see why Twins fans are expecting great things from Ben Revere.

The baseball world might not know who he is yet, but they will soon.

Twins Had A Taker - But Passed

The Dodgers and Red Sox are on the cusp of completing a landmark deal that has completely changed the face of two teams for the foreseeable future. The Dodgers have acquired Adrian Gonzalez, Josh Beckett, Carl Crawford and Nick Punto from the Red Sox for James Loney, Allen Webster and Rubby De La Rosa are the supposed pieces heading back to Boston in exchange.

The Dodgers were in the market for a first baseman and Adrian Gonzalez is certainly one of the best options available. In order to help the deal along, the Dodgers also agreed to take the contracts of Crawford and Beckett. Combined with Gonzalez’s salary, the Dodgers are picking up nearly $275 million in total salary. The Red Sox gain financial flexibility and pick up two of the better Dodger prospect in the deal.

So, you may be asking, what does this have to do with the Twins? A lot actually.

According to multiple reports from the LA Times, ESPN 1500’s Phil Mackey and other Twins beat writers, the Dodgers only moved on this Adrian Gonzalez deal after they couldn’t get a deal approved for Justin Morneau.

Morneau, who at 31 years of age is having his best season in two years simply by being healthy, was a deadline deal target of the Dodgers, but they couldn’t work out proper compensation with the Twins.

I’m alright with the Twins sticking with their players if they feel they can’t get the appropriate compensation. However, the details of this instance show the Twins may not have been making the best long term decision.

According to multiple reports, the Dodgers were willing and able to pick up all of Morneau’s $14.5 million contract for the next season. If these reports are indeed true, I’ve got some big questions for the Twins’ front office.

WHAT’S WRONG WITH YOU? Being the first and most important question.

I obviously don’t know the details of any discussions the Twins and Dodgers had, but I’d imagine the Twins wanted two things in return for Justin Morneau – a major league ready pitcher / prospect and the team would have to pick up all or at least a large majority of Morneau’s salary for the next season.

Given what the Dodgers just did with the Red Sox, I’m finding it hard to believe that the Twins couldn’t have gotten Rubby De La Rosa and gotten rid of Morneau’s contract responsibility all in one move. Two birds, meet one stone.

Making matters more complicated is the fact that the Twins just lost a potential suitor for Morneau during the offseason. The market for Morneau is going to be very limited. A contending team with deep pockets and a decent farm system is the target audience for Morneau’s services. Unfortunatley, you can list those teams on one hand:

New York Yankees

Boston Red Sox

Los Angeles Dodgers

Los Angeles Angels

Texas Rangers

That’s the list of teams with big budgets and relatively solid pitching prospects. On that list, the Dodgers, with their acquisition of Gonzalez, are obviously out. The Angels have Albert Pujols at 1B are not in need of Morneau’s services either. The Yankees have Mark Teixeira, but you never can rule them out from being involved on a big name player. The Red Sox clearly need a 1B bat and have money to spend, but they could choose to pick up a younger player at 1B and focus their money on pitching. Finally, the Rangers already have a fearsome offense and are more likely to focus any remaining free agent spending on starters.

As you can see, there’s not a big market out there for Morneau. Of course, a team such as the Giants, Athletics, Orioles or Marlins could step up and go crazy, but they’re long shot propositions hinging on happenstance and speculation.  

Why Move Morneau?

Some fans may ask why the Twins would even want to trade their former MVP first baseman given that he is now finally returning to form. There are multiple good reasons the Twins could use for trading Morneau – the biggest being:

1)      Chris Parmelee: You can’t ignore this kid any longer. His AAA numbers (.344/.462/.665 with 17 home runs in 59 games) show that he’s ready for the big show. The Twins problem is that they don’t have a spot to play him. With Morneau and Mauer splitting time at first base and the outfield crowded with Willingham, Revere, Span, Mastroianni and Doumit – Parmelee has been left to rot on the bench in the majors. Trading Morneau gives Parmelee the starting job at 1B (who can still platoon with Mauer) and makes the roster younger (Parmelee is 24).

2)      The Twins can use that $14.5 million in the offseason: The Twins have around $75 million already committed to the 2013 roster and the offseason hasn’t even begun yet. Take Morneau’s $14.5 million away from that number and you’ll find that $60.5 million looks a whole lot better. Assuming the Twins stay at or around the $100 payroll mark, that gives them nearly $40 million to rebuild a pitching staff.

3)      Morneau gets a shot at the World Series: Let’s be honest, even if the Twins rebuild a starting rotation and contend for the AL Central next season, they’re probably still 2 to 3 years away from contending for any form of World Series title. By that point in time Morneau will be 35 years old and potentially at the end of his career. Trading Justin to a contender could give him a chance to win a World Series ring.

Maybe the plan is to move Morneau in the offseason if Parmelee proves reliable as an everyday starting first baseman in September. Maybe the plan is to move Morneau with the next few days – we honestly don’t know what the Twins are thinking – but we have to hope the plan is to move the veteran and clear room for the youngster Parmelee.

Until we learn more of the Twins’ offseason plans, it’s a little hard to swallow them turning down the Dodgers for Morneau.

A Look Back At Carl Pavano's Time With The Twins

Late Tuesday afternoon, the Minnesota Twins announced that starting pitcher Carl Pavano had suffered a bruise on his humorous bone and will be shut down for the remainder of the season.

Pavano was in the last year of his deal with the Twins, and with the team’s focus likely to turn on acquiring young pitchers to rebuild their rotation, it’s unlikely that we’ll see Carl Pavano in a Twins uniform again.

2012 was a down year for Pavano, who seemed to struggle with velocity and control issues throughout much of the season. As a result, Pavano could only muster a 2-5 record with a 6.00 ERA in 11 games (63 innings) of work.

With the struggles of the Twins over the past two seasons, I think that Pavano’s contributions to the team are often overlooked. While Pavano didn’t act as a lynchpin to any World Series run, he was a very good addition to the Twins rotation and may have saved his reputation by pitching for the Twins over the past two seasons.

Pre-Twin Years:

Pavano’s career has been filled with many ups and downs. His peak occurred during the 2004 season with the Florida Marlins, where he posted a record of 18-8 and a reliable 3.00 ERA.

Pavano was a free agent after the 2004 season and was looked at as one of the best free agent pitchers on the market. The Yankees, as is their MO, signed Pavano to a massive 4 year $40 million contract. (To be fair, there were bigger offers from Boston and Cincinnati reportedly on the table, so it’s not as if the Yankees went “insane” with their offer).

Pavano’s time with the Yankees was an unmitigated disaster, due in large part to injuries. The 2005 season started with Pavano posting a 4-2 W/L record, but finished with Pavano hitting the DL in June. The injury limited Pavano to 17 starts in his first season in New York.

2006 ended before it began for Pavano. A spring training injury and a list of other maladies limited Pavano to minor league relief efforts through much of the season. In August of 2006, Pavano was involved in an automobile accident in which he broke two ribs and was shut down for the remainder of the year.

The New York market is infamous for being less than patient with its big name players, and with his contract, Pavano was deemed to be a big name player. Fans were growing impatient with Pavano simply because he couldn’t seem to stay healthy.

By the start of the 2007 season, it was clear that Yankee fans and Yankee players were doubting the effort Pavano was putting towards pitching for the team. The Yankee clubhouse was reportedly questioning Pavano’s desire to help his team win and Yankee Manager Joe Torre claimed that Pavano had “sizeable” damage to his clubhouse image.

Within the first weeks of the 2007 season, Pavano was diagnosed with an elbow injury that would once again send him to the DL. The injury required Tommy John surgery and forced Pavano to once again be shut down only a few games into the season.

Pavano did not appear in a Yankee uniform again until August of 2008 and pitched for the team through September 14^th of that season where he was lifted from a game due to “hip soreness”. Yankee fans had enough of Pavano and subsequently booed him as he left the field.

All in all, Pavano spent 4 seasons with the Yankees and ended up on the DL in each season. He posted a 9-8 record with a 4.80 ERA. Not exactly what the Yankees were expecting when they signed him for just short of $10 million per year.

Pavano Comes to Minnesota:

In 2009, Pavano signed a $1.5 million contract with Cleveland Indians. In August of 2009, Cleveland traded Pavano to the Twins, who were in tight race for the AL Central title. Pavano aided the staff in their pennant push and started a game (against the Yankees of all teams) in the ALDS for the Twins.

The Twins offered Pavano salary arbitration following the 2009 season, which he accepted. It's hard to say wheter the change or scenary, reduction in market size or just being healthy was the cause, but 2010 was probably Pavano’s best season outside of his 2004 efforts with the Marlins.

Pavano threw for 221 innings and posted a 17-11 record with a 3.75 ERA. During the heart of the season (June – August) Pavano went 11-2  and threw two (back to back) complete games.

Prior to 2011, the Twins signed Pavano to a two year deal, averaging $8.5 million per year.

2011 saw Pavano start poorly as he struggled with control in the early months of the season. By early June, however, Pavano had figured out his ailments and quickly became the most reliable pitcher on the woe begotten 2011 Twins staff.

He posted a 9-13 record with a 4.30 ERA, which is a relative victory considering his 2-4 W/L with 6.64 ERA to start the season.  

It’s tough to look at Pavano’s overall stats and view him as a high caliber pitcher – especially when you factor the 4 disastrous New York seasons into the equation. But, from a Twins fan’s perspective, Pavano was an absolute workhorse who took the mound for 200+ innings for the Twins in two seasons. He was a reliable veteran pitcher during their playoff runs in 2009 & 2010 and acted as a coach / mentor for newly minted Twins ‘ace’ Scott Diamond in 2012.

Carl Pavano is not a Hall of Fame player, nor is he likely to be remembered favorably in New York. But when he was good – he was one of the most reliable pitchers on the staff. Luckily for the Twins, they were able to extract two really solid seasons from Pavano. It’s a shame that injuries have cost Pavano yet another season of pitching, but I feel Twins fans should hold nothing but content / support for the “Pav-stache” in their hearts.

Pavano still has gas in the tank and will likely play for another team next season. His shaky 2011 and poor 2012 seasons mean he won’t be viewed as an elite pitching prospect, but savvy GMs and smaller market teams in need of a veteran would be wise to give him a look.

Oakland and Baltimore immediately come to mind as small market, competitive teams in needs of one more reliable arm. Here’s hoping Pavano returns to the majors in 2013 healthy and ready to pitch for a potential contender.

Bye Bye Blackburn - And Take Nishi With You Too...

In my prognostication post from yesterday, where I took my first shot at predicting the 2013 Minnesota Twins roster, I made the following statement:

“This rotation is based on a few assumptions…Nick Blackburn is no longer on the Twins roster”

I had a hunch that the Twins were going to part ways with the struggling Blackburn, little did I know that it would be as soon as that afternoon.

In a press release late Monday afternoon, the Twins announced that they had outrighted both Nick Blackburn and Tsuyoshi Nishioka from the 40 man roster.

I know some of the MLB roster terminology can be a little complicated or confusing, so if you’re wondering “What’s the difference between outright, option and DFA?” You’re likely not alone.

Optioning is the simple act of sending a player to the minors – Nishioka had this done to him earlier this month after Trevor Plouffe returned to the lineup. It doesn’t remove a player from the 40 man roster, nor does it require the team to expose the player to waivers.

The act of outrighting a player is different as it does expose the player to waivers. The condition is that any team who claims the said player does so under the pretense of assuming their entire contract. Essentially the original team gets to wash their hands of that player entirely in that case. If the player who was outrighted goes unclaimed by all 29 other teams, he then is removed from the original team’s 40 man roster and can be sent to the minor leagues.

Outrighting a player and designating a player for assignment are similar actions. When a player is DFA’d they are essentially outrighted – but there are a few extra conditions. The team has 10 days to trade or release the player after their designation, if they don’t the player can be outrighted to remove him from the 40 man roster. Players with more than 5 years of experience can refuse their DFA, forcing the team to either release them or return them to the majors. Essentially outrighting a player is designating them for assignment with a few less conditions.

In one fell swoop, the Twins hit “undo” on two of the more questionable front office moves from the Bill Smith era.

Clearly scouting wasn’t properly done on Tsuyoshi Nishioka, who never transitioned to the Major League game. In his career he only hit .215/.267/.236 with 20 RBI and 40 strike outs in 254 plate appearances. Nishioka’s offense could have been tolerated had he shown any defensive ability. Instead, his acts in the field were comical at best; he committed 14 errors in 69 games with the Twins.

His removal from the 40 man roster all but officially ends his career with the Twins. They’ll likely let him play out his contract in the minors, but he’s not going to be on the Twins major league roster ever again. He could go into the books as the worst Twin to every wear the uniform. A dubious honor, I suppose.

Nick Blackburn’s outrighting came as a little more of a surprise, while Blackburn has been downright bad this season, you sort of had a feeling the Twins were going to keep him around and slot him as the #5 starter next season. Instead, Blackburn and his 4-9 record and 7.39 ERA are now members of the Red Wings.

Blackburn was never the same player after he signed his 4 year / $14 million contract in 2010. Resigning Blackburn was not a black mark for Bill Smith – but signing him to that contract certainly was. Blackburn was always a #4 or #5 starter at best – even in 2009 / 2010, Blackburn’s numbers 21-23 with an ERA around 5.00 between both seasons, didn’t warrant a big money contract like the one he received.

Making matters worse, Blackburn couldn’t even deliver .500 baseball with a 5.00 ERA – his control eroded and his ERA grew to the point where the Twins couldn’t take it any longer. When a team desperate for any pitcher with a pulse kicks you off of their roster – it’s probably a good indicator that your career isn’t exactly going the way you’d like it to.

Blackburn was slated to pitch in the series finale against Oakland on Wednesday. In his place, the Twins are likely to call up Liam Hendriks, who has shown quality stuff in AAA (9-3, 2.20 ERA) but has struggled when being promoted to the majors (0-5, 7.04 ERA).

Hendriks will be a part of the rotation next season – the Twins are not deep enough to leave a 9-3 AAA pitcher off of the major league roster – so here’s hoping that he can get a good start on 2013 by finding some consistency at the end of 2012.

First Draft: The 2013 Twins Roster

The 2012 Major League season is entering the dog days. Division races are drawing tighter, the playoffs are visible on the horizon and the expanded 40 man rosters due in September mean that a plethora of new faces are about to break out on the Major League scene.

For fans of teams like the Twins, who are obvsiously out of any playoff conversation, the September call ups are a great chance to forecast and prognosticate the 2013 starting roster.

It’s early, free agency hasn’t happened and the offseason moves haven’t been made, but why not take a crack at the opening day 2013 roster just for fun? That’s what we’re doing today.

Position Players:

Catcher:

1. Joe Mauer  - MLB Opening Day Roster
2. Ryan Doumit – MLB Opening Day Roster
3. Drew Butera  - AAA Roster

I don’t see the Twins carrying 3 catchers again next season. Butera had value for the Twins this season as the player capable of catching / fixing Francisco Liriano but with Captain Meltdown (Liriano’s unofficial title) now a White Sox, Butera won’t need to stay on the 25 man roster.

First Base:

1. Chris Parmelee – MLB
2. Joe Mauer

Yes, no Justin Morneau. I’m basing this assumption on 2 points. First, Parmelee is called up in September and continues to mash the ball as well has he had been in AAA. Second, because of this, the Twins are comfortable trading Justin Morneau to another team for pitching depth.

Second Base:

1. Jamey Carroll – MLB
2. Pedro Florimon – MLB
3. Alexi Casilla – MLB

I have a hunch that Pedro Florimon is going to outplay Casilla in the last month of this season and show his value as a defensive player. Carroll isn’t going anywhere before his contract is up, and a platoon of Carroll / Florimon would give the Twins a solid defensive middle infield. Casilla is under contract for another season and would function as depth off of the bench.

Short Stop:

1. Brian Dozier – MLB
2. Pedro Florimon
3. Jamey Carroll

Brian Doizer will be back on the Major League roster and he will be starting for the Twins next season. He’s a better offensive option than Florimon, Carroll and Casilla and his defense will improve with time. He’s likely to platoon with Florimon, but I expect Doizer to be the starter for a majority of the season.

Third Base:

1. Trevor Plouffe – MLB
2. Jamey Carroll
3. Eduardo Escobar – AAA

The trade of Danny Valencia to the Red Sox made it pretty clear that Plouffe had won the 3B job for 2013. His injured thumb seems to be impeding his comeback this season, but his offensive surge in June and July of 2012 was not a mirage. He swings a powerful bat and plays solid defense. Carroll will cover for Plouffe on his days off and Escobar could be called to fill in if injuries flare up.

Left Field:

1. Josh Willingham – MLB
2. Darin Mastroianni – MLB
3. Ryan Doumit

Josh Willingham has been the offensive ‘pop’ the Twins were looking for when the signed him in the 2012 offseason. He’s under a great contract for the three years and isn’t going anywhere. Mastroianni will likely return as the Twins 4^th outfielder after showing great things in 2012, likewise, Doumit will continue to earn a few games in left when Willingham is off or DHing.

Center Field:

1. Ben Revere – MLB
2. Darin Mastroianni
3. Oswaldo Arcia – MLB

Here’s my second bold prediction, I think the Twins move Denard Span in the offseason after Oswaldo Arcia shows he’s major league ready this September. Span is a coveted asset and can bring the Twins solid pitching. Revere gets to move to his more natural CF position and Arcia’s arm fits better in RF than Revere’s. These changes amount to upgrades all the way around for the Twins.

Right Field:

1. Oswaldo Arcia
2. Darin Mastroianni
3. Chris Parmelee / Ben Revere / Ryan Doumit

Arcia earns the RF gig after playing well in September and spring training.  

DH:

1. Doumit / Mauer / Parmelee / Willingham

The position is filled by one of the big bats on their “day off” from their regular spot.

With these predictions, my 2013 starting lineup looks like this for the Twins:

C: Joe Mauer

1B: Chris Parmelee

2B: Jamey Carroll

SS: Brian Dozier

3B: Trevor Plouffe

LF: Josh Willingham

CF: Ben Revere

RF: Oswaldo Arcia

DH: Ryan Doumit

Bench: Darin Mastroianni, Pedro Florimon, Alexi Casilla, Drew Butera or Eduardo Escobar

I can see the Twins carrying 3 catchers out of concern of injury for Mauer / Doumit. If they decide not to do that, a utility player such as Escobar or a free agent pickup will likely fill the last spot.

Pitching:

Starters:

1. Scott Diamond
2. Scott Baker
3. Liam Hendriks
4. Free Agent Acquisition (Joe Blanton)
5. PJ Walters / Cole De Vries

Minor League Starters:

Kyle Gibson (AAA)

Samuel Deduno (AAA)

I’m making this rotation based on the following assumptions: 1) Scott Baker’s option is declined, but the Twins negotiate a new incentive heavy contract to keep him with the team. 2) Liam Hendriks figures out his Major League woes 3) The Twins sign a mid level free agent pitcher. Better than Jason Marquis, but not Ryan Dempster or the other high profile free agents. I’m theorizing the Twins go for someone who has had a rough year – but has good stuff – someone like Joe Blanton. 4. Nick Blackburn is no longer on the Twins’ roster. 5. Cole De Vries or PJ Walters win the 5^th spot during spring training with the ‘loser’ moving to long relief.

Kyle Gibson, Samuel Deduno, Esmerling Vasquez and Pedro Hernandez are all potential call ups in case of injury from the minors.

Bullpen:

Long Relief:

PJ Walters / Cole De Vries

Anthony Swarzak

Brian Duensing

Middle Relief

Alex Burnett

Casey Fien

Anthony Slama

Set-Up / Closer

Jared Burton

Glen Perkins

Minor League Options:

Kyle Waldrop

Jeff Manship

The bullpen is largely unchanged from 2012. Jeff Gray is given the (deserved) boot as well as Tyler Robertson. Walters or De Vries are upgrades from Jeff Gray and Slama looks to be measurably better than Robertson.

Waldrop and Manship are two relievers who were already on the fringe and would likely be the first to be called up due to injury or need in 2013.

Outlook:

First and foremost, I realize I have 26 players on a 25 man roster. Depending on the way the Twins want to lean (pitching or hitting) will dictate the odd man out. I’d estimate that the Twins will lean towards pitching; meaning Drew Butera would be the odd player out. If the team decided to run with 12 pitchers and 13 position players, PJ Walters or Cole De Vries would be optioned to AAA.

This is largely the same team that the Twins rolled out in 2012 but I think the few key changes make it a better team.

A healthy Scott Baker, effective Liam Hendriks and a reliable PJ Walters / Cole De Vries means this rotation would have 4 solid pitching options – the start of 2012 saw the Twins roll out a rotation with 0 reliable pitching options. The free agent pitcher is the big wild card. If the Twins go crazy and get a staff ace, this becomes a very good rotation. A middle of the pack guy makes the rotation “solid” (Joe Blanton) and a low end player (Pavano, Marquis) would drop the rotation to an overall “Okay, but lacking” score.

The bullpen removes the players who were unreliable (Gray, Robertson) and replaces them with pieces the team already has in place and that have proven to be quality players (Slama, Walters / De Vries, Fien). The bullpen otherwise remains unchanged – which isn’t a bad thing. Swarzak works well in long relief, Duensing has excelled in that role in 2012 as well. Burton has been solid as a set-up man for Perkins – who has absolutely filthy stuff and is suited for the closer role.

The offensive side sees only a few changes in moving Span and Morneau to other teams. But with Arcia and Parmelee developing nicely, any lost offensive output should be minimal.

Adding Florimon to the bench gives the Twins great middle infield depth and allows the Twins to platoon the middle infield based on matchups. With ground ball heavy pitchers (Diamond, Baker, Blanton, De Vries, Walters, Hendriks) the defensive improvements that Carroll / Florimon bring to the team are huge improvements.

With better starting pitching, this Twins team goes from bottom feeder to division contender. They were 3 reliable starters away from being “in it” in 2012 – there’s no reason to believe that they cannot contend if their pitching staff is at least average.

Of course, with winter meetings, free agency and trades the odds that the Twins opening day roster looks anything like what I’ve built here are low. I’ll adapt and change predictions as the season / off season progresses.

Forecasting September Call Ups

I’m back after a long hiatus – the wife and I took a nice two week vacation to Minneapolis. We took in a couple of Twins games (The 10 inning loss to Tampa Bay and the 9-3 win over Detroit) and had a grand 'ol time. The long hiatus means there’s a lot of topics to cover regarding Twins’ Territory. The smaller moves (Matt Carson, Pedro Florimon called up) really are worth exploring. Instead, today I want to look at Brain Dozier’s demotion and the expanding roster and pending September call-ups.

Dozier Demoted:

It’s not secret that Brain Dozier has been struggling in his first year of major league play. Since being called up in May Dozier has put up a meager .234/.271/.332 split and has looked out of place on defense on more than one occasion his 15 errors in 83 games are a concern and his lack of defensive awareness has been an irksome point this season. His poor decision in Sunday’s loss to Tampa Bay was the difference between the Twins getting out of the 10^th unscathed and losing by 4 runs. On a slow roller to short with the bases loaded and one out, Dozier chose to take the easy out at first, allowing the go ahead run to score and extending the inning.

We were at that game, and it looked pretty clear that Dozier had a play at second and an opportunity to turn two – in fact, he had a chance to take the force out at home if he wanted to go for a sure out. Video replay later confirmed that of all the options, the one Dozier made was probably the worst.

Dozier’s confidence has deteriorated over the past few months – he has been giving at bats away by chasing balls in the dirt and otherwise looking lost at the plate. What’s worse is that his poor offense has been carrying over to the defensive side of the ball as well.

When I first heard of Dozier’s demotion I commented that this was likely temporary as he’s the player most ready to be the Twins’ starting shortstop going into 2013. In fact, Dozier is likely to return when the roster is expanded in September.

The one thing that could trump Dozier’s return is a strong presence by Pedro Florimon. Florimon, who is around the same age as Dozier, has always been viewed as the defensive shortstop to Dozier’s offensive presence. In a few games already this season, we’ve seen Florimon make some absolutely astounding plays. What should concern Dozier is the fact that Florimon has looked to be decent at the plate as well.

If Florimon can put up league average numbers – or even better splits than .234/.271/.332 he may leap over Dozier as the team’s future shortstop.

September Call-Ups Pending:

On September 1^st, the active rosters of Major League ballclubs expand from 25 to 40. That means that many minor leaguers who have otherwise been “stuck” behind the usual position players will likely get a chance to earn some playing time. For the Twins, this is an opportunity to see if any of their hot minor league players have a shot at cracking the Major League roster next season.

Don’t overlook the importance of these call ups. Last season, Chris Parmelee was promoted and played lights out, hitting .355/.443/.592 in 21 games. His solid play earned him a spot on the opening day roster. This one month window is very much a trial shot for the younger players in any system. Show promise here and your career is on the fast track.

The Twins have a decent selection of minor league players who are deserving of a promotion to the majors. 15 spots are up for grabs, I’ll rank the top players who I think will get called up and what their future could be with the Twins.

1. Chris Parmelee

- Parmelee has been hitting the cover off of the ball in AAA this season, hitting .352/.469/.684 The only thing holding Parmelee back at this point is the logjam of talent currently sitting in his position. He’s clearly ready for the majors and will likely earn a full time spot on the roster next season.

2. Liam Hendriks

- Just like Parmelee, Hendriks has been lights out in the minors this season but has struggled in his major league appearances. Unlike Parmelee, there’s no logjam of talent blocking Hendriks’ way to the majors. If he can figure out how to get his minor league results to happen on the major league level, he’d be starting for the Twins right now. With his talent and the Twins’ needs for pitching, he’s going to be a member of the opening day rotation.

3. Oswaldo Arcia

- Arcia has burst onto the scene this season by putting up great numbers in AA New Britain. His .338/.410/.556 split shows that his bat could be major league ready as soon as next season. Last year, Joe Benson received a September call-up despite only being in AA, he struggled at the plate and hasn’t really returned to his prime form. Even if Arcia performs well, he’ll likely start the 2013 season in AAA. Ben Revere, Denard Span and Josh Willingham are blocking his way and Darin Mastroianni has a lock on the 4^th outfielder position at this time. If Arcia plays well, he may make it easier for the Twins to trade Denard Span and earn a place on the opening day roster – but he’d have to play VERY well in one month’s worth of time for that change to happen.

4. Deolis Guerra

- Guerra is the last chip from the Johan Santana trade still under the Twins control. Guerra had been unhittable in New Britian, earning a promotion to AAA earlier this year. During that time he has struggled slightly, posting a 5.43 ERA in 48 innings. That being said, he has shown the ability to strike batters out and is a powerful arm that could work well out of the bullpen. He’s likely to start 2013 in AAA, but could be one of the first arms promoted to the majors next season.

5. Anthony Slama

- How Slama hasn’t been promoted yet is beyond me. He’s posted an incredible .70 ERA in 24 innings with Rochester. Slama also has 44 strikeouts and only 14 walks in that stretch. He’s looked Major League ready for a while, but the Twins have opted to look past him. He can’t be ignored when the rosters expand and if he shows the ability to strike out batters out of the bullpen like he has been – he’ll be on the 2013 Major League roster.

6-9. PJ Walters, Carl Pavano, Matt Capps

- All 3 have been injured for the mid part of the season. 2 of them (Capps and Pavano) have lost all value for the Twins as they have expiring contracts and are not likely to be back before the August 31^st waiver trade deadline. That being said, they’re likely to be healthy in September and will get a spot on the roster once again.

10. Brian Dozier

- He’s not going to rot in AAA, the Twins will likely pull him up with the intent on seeing how his defense and bat have improved after taking a few weeks to swing at lower level pitching.

11. Esmerling Vasquez

- Let’s face it; the Twins are in great need of pitching. Vasquez has been putting up solid numbers in Rochester this season (2.35 ERA over 88 innings pitched). He also boasts a solid 87 strikeouts and a manageable 33 walks. With the bullpen looking beleaguered and 4 starter spots open, Vasquez will likely get a fair shot in September to see what he has. Vasquez was claimed by the Twins from the Diamondbacks after he struggled at the Major League level, so the odds of him “figuring it out” at the highest level are low, but at this point, every solid minor leaguer gets a chance.

12. Caleb Thielbar

- Similar to Vasquez, Theilbar has been putting up good numbers in AAA. He’s appeared in 22 games and has pitched 32 innings of relief all while putting up an 3.38 ERA and striking out 25. Middle relief is a stronger point of the Twins’ pitching staff but you can never have too much pitching talent. He’s likely a AAA player in 2013 with the potential to crack the bullpen if ineffectiveness or injury arise.

13. Eduardo Escobar

- One half of the assets acquired for Francisco Liriano, Escobar’s value is as a utility man / defensive replacement. He’ll likely bounce around 3B, SS and 2B and would have to play very well to earn a spot on the MLB roster in 2013. I see Escobar as a nice backup to keep in AAA until a starter is injured.

14. BJ Hermsen

- Hermsen is currently pitching in AA New Britain, and is a stretch to be a September call up – but he has posted a 10-5 record with a 3.04 ERA in 121 innings worth of work. His strikeout numbers aren’t extraordinary (63) but his walks are limited (20) – he looks like a typical pitch to contact Twins starter. The Twins are going to promote pitchers, due to their 2013 needs, Hermsen certainly could be one of the players to get a shot.

15. Kyle Gibson

- Gibson has been pitching in Fort Myers as he recovers from his injuries sustained last season. Gibson will very likely be in the Twins starting rotation by mid 2013, but why not give him a shot for a few weeks in September? He’s at the bottom of my list because I don’t think the Twins will call him up, but he would be another player to look for and will likely be heading to the majors in the near future.

Twins Trade Valencia to Red Sox

Prior to Sunday afternoon’s 6-4 loss to Boston, the Twins announced that they had traded out of favor third baseman Danny Valencia to the Red Sox for Jeremias Pineda. Valencia was immediately optioned to AAA Pawtucket and Pineda was assigned to the Twins’ Gulf Coast League team.

The trade marked the end of a tumultuous marriage between Valencia and the Twins marred by inconsistencies and a lack of trust.

Valencia made his pro debut with the Twins in 2010 and looked impressive in 85 games. He hit .311 with a .799 OPS while driving in 40 RBI for the division winning club. 2011 saw Valencia return to earth, batting only .246 with a .677 OPS over 154 games. Valencia tallied 72 RBI and 102 strikeouts over this span. In addition, Valencia’s defense, which had never been a particularly strong suit to begin with, was still below average.

In his 2010 half season, Valencia committed 6 errors. In 2011, Valencia tripled that total to 18.

2012 was widely speculated to be Danny’s last chance with the Twins. Manager Ron Gardenhire had commented frequently throughout the 2011 season and offseason that Valencia needed to make improvements if he wanted to stay with the club.

Rather than rising to the challenge, Valencia appeared to collapse under the pressure. Valencia barely batted above .150 in the early weeks of the season and was still committing errors on defense. On May 9^th, the Twins had enough and optioned Valencia to AAA. The move allegedly angered Valencia and furthered a rift between the manager’s office and the player.

After Trevor Plouffe was inserted at third base and proceeded to become one of the hottest players in the game, it was clear that Valencia was not going to get another chance at the Twins’ 3B job.

Plouffe’s injury afforded Valencia a second chance, but he continued to struggle at the plate and in the field. In 34 games this season, Valencia managed a meager .198 average with 2 home runs and 17 RBI. The final straw was likely Valencia’s 4 errors – with improvement on the field he probably would have kept his roster spot simply serving as a solid defensive third baseman. With poor defense and an anemic bat – he never stood a chance.

Pineda, the player acquired from the Red Sox for Valencia, is a 21 year old outfielder who the Twins consider a “late bloomer”. While 21 is old to be a GCL player, the Twins feel his stat line of .421 with 22 RBI and over 36 games indicates that he may be maturing at the plate.

It’s not surprising that the Twins finally decided to part ways with Valencia, after all, his struggles and Ron Gardenhire’s frustrations with said struggles were well documented and bubbling beneath the surface for a large part of the last two seasons.

What is surprising is that the Twins managed to get something in return for him. While Pineda may not be any immediate help to the organization, he looks to be a talented outfielder who, at the very least, could help rebuild the beleaguered farm system.

Time will tell who got the better of this trade. It’s entirely possible that with a different set of coaches, Valencia can return to form and turn into a power hitting third baseman for the Red Sox. Alternatively, Pineda can prove this “late bloomer” theory to be correct and be part of a vicious Twins outfield in 3 to 5 years.

Or, more likely, both players will simply be minor league farm players destined to be chips in future trades. Who won this trade? The Red Sox get 3B depth, the Twins jettisoned Valencia and received something in return. For the time being, everyone wins.

Figuring Out Samuel Deduno

Last night, the Twins and Samuel Deduno stymied the Boston Red Sox in route to a 5-0 victory in the opening game of a 3 game set in Boston. Deduno notched his third win of the season and left the game with an impressive state line: 6.0 IP, 2H, 4BB, 1K.

Outside of two Adrian Gonzalez hits, Deduno kept the Boston players at bay – forcing nearly every ball in play right to Brian Dozier or Alexi Casilla. A few hits pushed Ben Revere or Denard Span to the warning track, but for the large part of the game, Deduno was unhittable.

Deduno was called up in early July after Carl Pavano hit the disabled list. Deduno has been a career minor leaguer – in the game since 2003, he has only made two other appearances in the majors (2010 with Colorado and 2011 with San Diego) both of those appearances were as a relief pitcher.

Deduno has four pitches in his arsenal, a fastball that tops out 92 MPH and averages 89, as well as a changeup, slider and curveball. Of those four, Deduno throws the fastball the most (55% of his pitches this season) but he also leans heavily on his curve (35%).

Deduno looked destined to be an ‘also-ran’ or forgotten bullpen minor league arm. Over 9 years his ‘stuff’ never matured to the point where he warranted a major league spot. It was only out of desperation that he was given a chance to pitch for the Twins this season – an opportunity which he appears to be making the most of.

The win pushed Deduno’s record to 3-0 with a 2.48 ERA in 5 starts this season. Deduno has put up strong stats in each of his last 3 starts:

VS Kansas City	6.1 IP	6 Hits	3 BB / 4 K	1 ER
VS Cleveland	7.0 IP	2 Hits	5 BB / 6 K	1 ER
VS Boston	6.0 IP	2 Hits	4 BB / 1K	0 ER

At first glance, it looks like Deduno has put dominant starts together – which is partially true, his end results are solid wins in which he has limited the other team to 1 or fewer runs – but the route he takes to get there is anything but dominant.

Deduno has a strikeout to walk ratio of nearly 1 to 1 (19 strikeouts, 20 walks) and by simply watching him pitch you can clearly see that he has control problems. Deduno’s fastball is hard to predict, one pitch it will nail an inside corner for a strike and the very next pitch will bounce in the dirt 3 feet in front of home plate. His control issues have forced him to work longer counts and he is prone to working behind batters early in counts.

Deduno’s savior has been his breaking ball. He’ll frequently go to a changeup or another off speed pitch in what are typically “fastball” counts (3-0, 3-1). Unlike his fastball, Deduno seems to have excellent control of his off speed pitches, frequently painting the corners of the strike zone with a nasty looking curve.  

What Does This All Mean?

At 29 years old, it’s not likely that Deduno can be viewed as a pitching prospect or as even a long term option as a starter for the team. His success, however, has been a pleasant surprise in a season filled with disappointing pitching performances.

The obvious question with Deduno is “can he keep it up?” Clearly, anytime a pitcher struggles with control as badly as he does, you have to wonder if it is only a matter of time before the wheels simply fall off of the “good pitching bus”.

I actually lean to the “yes, he can keep this up” side of the argument for Deduno. If you look at his stats as a reliever for San Diego and Colorado, they show an interesting trend. Deduno’s 2010 stats:

4 Games

2.2 IP

1 ER

1 BB / 3 K

1.50 WHIP

Look oddly similar to his 2011 stats:

2 Games

3.0 IP

1 ER

3 BB / 4 K

2.67 WHIP

Which follow the same pattern his 2012 stats are taking:

5 Games

29.0 IP

8 ER

20 BB / 19 K

1.45 WHIP

You can argue that what we’re seeing from Deduno is exactly what you can expect to get. He’s going to walk batters, he tends to allow balls to be put in play, but he keeps the game in control. You can call it ‘effectively wild’ – but the key to that is the first part “effective”.

The counter argument to Deduno’s future success is that teams will begin taking more pitches, counting on his poor control to get him in trouble. A look at his more advanced stats will show this may not be an effective strategy, however.

In 29 innings this season, Deduno has induced only a handful of swinging strikes. He’s the prototypical Twins “pitch to contact” pitcher that gets his outs via groundballs. This season his ground ball to fly ball ratio is 2.65 to 1 – meaning he’s getting over 2.5 times as many groundball outs as fly ball outs. For a pitch to contact pitcher, that’s huge.

Simply sitting back and letting Deduno pitch into a jam may backfire as Deduno can throw strikes with the off speed pitches in his repertoire. Luckily, when the opposing team does decide to swing and put the ball in play, it’s been staying in the infield, resulting in weak groundball outs and quick, efficient innings.

Long Term Outlook:

It’s hard to say what Deduno’s long term outlook is with the Twins. If he can maintain his current success, he’s certainly locked into a rotation spot through the rest of this season.

Next season is a little more tricky. The Twins pitching rotation needs rebuilding – that much is a given. Scott Diamond is the only current starter that should be ensured a starting spot next season. If Deduno’s ‘effectively wild’ pitching continues to be effective, he could lock down a roll as a long reliever for the Twins in the next campaign.

In all honestly, as much as I like to cheer for Deduno and love that he’s seeing success after a long career in the minors, I HOPE he’s not in the starting rotation come 2013. If Deduno is expected to be a long term answer to the Twins pitching problem or if the Twins can’t come up with 4 other guys who are better (more reliable) than Deduno for next season, it likely means we’re on our way to watching another losing season.

Twins Trade Deadline Recap

The 2012 non-waiver trade deadline came and went yesterday afternoon with very little activity from the Minnesota Twins. Depending on your perspective, this approach was either stunning or exactly what you expected.

If you’ll recall, I said a week ago that I wouldn’t be surprised if the only Twin to be moved would be Francisco Liriano. Looking at the players the Twins had who were sought after; Denard Span, Josh Willingham, Justin Morneau and Glen Perkins, you can easily see the Twins didn’t HAVE to move any of them.

Last season, the Twins stood pat at the trade deadline despite holding the expiring contracts of Michael Cuddyer, Jim Thome, Joe Nathan, Jose Mijarles and Jason Kubel. The Twins were desperately hoping they could continue playing well and maybe make a run at the AL Central title. That plan was shortsighted and foolhardy and it fully backfired on the Twins as the team went on to finish 2011 with 99 losses.

This season, the Twins stubbornly held onto Span, Willingham, Morneau, Perkins and Jared Burton – putting a high asking price on their players and not backing down. This year, however, I feel this was the savvy decision. Hypocrisy you say? Let me explain.

First, none of the above listed players have expiring deals. They are all under team control for at least one more season.  By not trading them now, it’s not the Twins are not going to get anything from any of these players. They’ll all come back next season and be part of a fairly good offense.

My second point builds on that fact – the offense is fairly good. Yes, this team is losing because the starting pitching has largely been horrid – but trading away a functioning offense to acquire pitching does little to help the team. It simply passes the buck to another area of the club.

With the offense presently constructed, this Twins team can compete in the AL Central in 2013. We’ve seen that Detroit is not the powerhouse that we all assumed they would be. While the White Sox are good they certainly don’t look like they’ll run away with the division over the next few seasons either. The Twins are a decent (league average) pitching rotation away from being contenders in this division. Selling off a competent offense will do little to fix this team.

The Twins front office will have to spend money on free agent pitchers this coming offseason. If they want to continue this push of “contending, not rebuilding” and keep fans coming to their shiny new park, they are going to have to quit cutting payroll and embrace the fact that Morneau, Mauer, Doumit, Willingham and Span dictate that this team needs to compete sooner rather than later.

This trade line will be graded based largely on what happens during the winter months. If a few big fish come the Twins way, not selling at the deadline will be a smart move. If they try a few more retread pitchers (akin to Jason Marquis) this deadline will be a failure.

Bye, Bye Liriano

The one trade the Twins did make came Saturday evening. The Twins moved inconsistent left hander Francisco Liriano to the White Sox for Pedro Hernandez and Eduardo Escobar. 

Hernandez is a 23 year old left hander that was ranked as the 8^th to 20^th best player in the White Sox farm system to begin the season. Escobar, also 23 years old, is a solid defensive infielder with a slightly below average bat. (Similar to Pedro Florimon, currently in Rochester). Escobar was ranked 4^th to not listed in the top prospects for the White Sox prior to 2012. (Obviously there’s some disagreement here).  

Surprisingly, many Twins fans took to Twitter – outraged that the Twins let Liriano go for “so little”.

First and foremost, Hernandez is a young pitcher who looks to have a lot of upside. He’s been solid in AA and AAA this season, but had struggled in his one major league start. He’s not major league ready this season – but his pitch selection, especially his off speed pitches, are supposed to be top tier quality. He reminds me a lot of the Twins’ own Liam Hendriks. He has the talent to be in the big leagues, but just needs another season in the minors. Come 2013, both Hernandez and Hendriks could be key parts of a Twins starting rotation.

Escobar fills a big need for the Twins as well. Their middle infield, while not nearly as weak defensively as it was last season, is still nothing to be admired. Jamey Carroll has performed well in a starting role, but the Twins know he’s only a temporary solution. Alexi Casilla is what he is at this point, he’s not turning into the next super start at second base like the Twins had hoped. The biggest problem the Twins have had is that there’s little in the way of depth. Levi Michaels is still 2 to 3 years from the majors and Tsuyoshi Nishioka is clearly not going to be the player the Twins wanted him to be. Even with Brian Dozier playing well – albeit inconsistently – this season, the Twins needed depth in the middle infield. Escobar gives them that depth.

I feel like the outrage from the Liriano trade is coming from fans forgetting exactly who Francisco Liriano is in the big picture of Major League Baseball. Yes, Liriano was likely the best pitcher on the staff for the Twins from 2006 – 2011, but that doesn’t make him one of the best pitchers in the league. He’s inconsistent, has the tendancy to “blow up” an inning when he gets in his own head and (this is key) his contract was up at the end of the year.

The Twins essentially got 2 promising young players for an aging left hander who was destined to be a free agent in the coming season. All in all, I’d call this trade a “win” for the Twins.