Forecasting September Call Ups

I’m back after a long hiatus – the wife and I took a nice two week vacation to Minneapolis. We took in a couple of Twins games (The 10 inning loss to Tampa Bay and the 9-3 win over Detroit) and had a grand 'ol time. The long hiatus means there’s a lot of topics to cover regarding Twins’ Territory. The smaller moves (Matt Carson, Pedro Florimon called up) really are worth exploring. Instead, today I want to look at Brain Dozier’s demotion and the expanding roster and pending September call-ups.

Dozier Demoted:

It’s not secret that Brain Dozier has been struggling in his first year of major league play. Since being called up in May Dozier has put up a meager .234/.271/.332 split and has looked out of place on defense on more than one occasion his 15 errors in 83 games are a concern and his lack of defensive awareness has been an irksome point this season. His poor decision in Sunday’s loss to Tampa Bay was the difference between the Twins getting out of the 10^th unscathed and losing by 4 runs. On a slow roller to short with the bases loaded and one out, Dozier chose to take the easy out at first, allowing the go ahead run to score and extending the inning.

We were at that game, and it looked pretty clear that Dozier had a play at second and an opportunity to turn two – in fact, he had a chance to take the force out at home if he wanted to go for a sure out. Video replay later confirmed that of all the options, the one Dozier made was probably the worst.

Dozier’s confidence has deteriorated over the past few months – he has been giving at bats away by chasing balls in the dirt and otherwise looking lost at the plate. What’s worse is that his poor offense has been carrying over to the defensive side of the ball as well.

When I first heard of Dozier’s demotion I commented that this was likely temporary as he’s the player most ready to be the Twins’ starting shortstop going into 2013. In fact, Dozier is likely to return when the roster is expanded in September.

The one thing that could trump Dozier’s return is a strong presence by Pedro Florimon. Florimon, who is around the same age as Dozier, has always been viewed as the defensive shortstop to Dozier’s offensive presence. In a few games already this season, we’ve seen Florimon make some absolutely astounding plays. What should concern Dozier is the fact that Florimon has looked to be decent at the plate as well.

If Florimon can put up league average numbers – or even better splits than .234/.271/.332 he may leap over Dozier as the team’s future shortstop.

September Call-Ups Pending:

On September 1^st, the active rosters of Major League ballclubs expand from 25 to 40. That means that many minor leaguers who have otherwise been “stuck” behind the usual position players will likely get a chance to earn some playing time. For the Twins, this is an opportunity to see if any of their hot minor league players have a shot at cracking the Major League roster next season.

Don’t overlook the importance of these call ups. Last season, Chris Parmelee was promoted and played lights out, hitting .355/.443/.592 in 21 games. His solid play earned him a spot on the opening day roster. This one month window is very much a trial shot for the younger players in any system. Show promise here and your career is on the fast track.

The Twins have a decent selection of minor league players who are deserving of a promotion to the majors. 15 spots are up for grabs, I’ll rank the top players who I think will get called up and what their future could be with the Twins.

1. Chris Parmelee

- Parmelee has been hitting the cover off of the ball in AAA this season, hitting .352/.469/.684 The only thing holding Parmelee back at this point is the logjam of talent currently sitting in his position. He’s clearly ready for the majors and will likely earn a full time spot on the roster next season.

2. Liam Hendriks

- Just like Parmelee, Hendriks has been lights out in the minors this season but has struggled in his major league appearances. Unlike Parmelee, there’s no logjam of talent blocking Hendriks’ way to the majors. If he can figure out how to get his minor league results to happen on the major league level, he’d be starting for the Twins right now. With his talent and the Twins’ needs for pitching, he’s going to be a member of the opening day rotation.

3. Oswaldo Arcia

- Arcia has burst onto the scene this season by putting up great numbers in AA New Britain. His .338/.410/.556 split shows that his bat could be major league ready as soon as next season. Last year, Joe Benson received a September call-up despite only being in AA, he struggled at the plate and hasn’t really returned to his prime form. Even if Arcia performs well, he’ll likely start the 2013 season in AAA. Ben Revere, Denard Span and Josh Willingham are blocking his way and Darin Mastroianni has a lock on the 4^th outfielder position at this time. If Arcia plays well, he may make it easier for the Twins to trade Denard Span and earn a place on the opening day roster – but he’d have to play VERY well in one month’s worth of time for that change to happen.

4. Deolis Guerra

- Guerra is the last chip from the Johan Santana trade still under the Twins control. Guerra had been unhittable in New Britian, earning a promotion to AAA earlier this year. During that time he has struggled slightly, posting a 5.43 ERA in 48 innings. That being said, he has shown the ability to strike batters out and is a powerful arm that could work well out of the bullpen. He’s likely to start 2013 in AAA, but could be one of the first arms promoted to the majors next season.

5. Anthony Slama

- How Slama hasn’t been promoted yet is beyond me. He’s posted an incredible .70 ERA in 24 innings with Rochester. Slama also has 44 strikeouts and only 14 walks in that stretch. He’s looked Major League ready for a while, but the Twins have opted to look past him. He can’t be ignored when the rosters expand and if he shows the ability to strike out batters out of the bullpen like he has been – he’ll be on the 2013 Major League roster.

6-9. PJ Walters, Carl Pavano, Matt Capps

- All 3 have been injured for the mid part of the season. 2 of them (Capps and Pavano) have lost all value for the Twins as they have expiring contracts and are not likely to be back before the August 31^st waiver trade deadline. That being said, they’re likely to be healthy in September and will get a spot on the roster once again.

10. Brian Dozier

- He’s not going to rot in AAA, the Twins will likely pull him up with the intent on seeing how his defense and bat have improved after taking a few weeks to swing at lower level pitching.

11. Esmerling Vasquez

- Let’s face it; the Twins are in great need of pitching. Vasquez has been putting up solid numbers in Rochester this season (2.35 ERA over 88 innings pitched). He also boasts a solid 87 strikeouts and a manageable 33 walks. With the bullpen looking beleaguered and 4 starter spots open, Vasquez will likely get a fair shot in September to see what he has. Vasquez was claimed by the Twins from the Diamondbacks after he struggled at the Major League level, so the odds of him “figuring it out” at the highest level are low, but at this point, every solid minor leaguer gets a chance.

12. Caleb Thielbar

- Similar to Vasquez, Theilbar has been putting up good numbers in AAA. He’s appeared in 22 games and has pitched 32 innings of relief all while putting up an 3.38 ERA and striking out 25. Middle relief is a stronger point of the Twins’ pitching staff but you can never have too much pitching talent. He’s likely a AAA player in 2013 with the potential to crack the bullpen if ineffectiveness or injury arise.

13. Eduardo Escobar

- One half of the assets acquired for Francisco Liriano, Escobar’s value is as a utility man / defensive replacement. He’ll likely bounce around 3B, SS and 2B and would have to play very well to earn a spot on the MLB roster in 2013. I see Escobar as a nice backup to keep in AAA until a starter is injured.

14. BJ Hermsen

- Hermsen is currently pitching in AA New Britain, and is a stretch to be a September call up – but he has posted a 10-5 record with a 3.04 ERA in 121 innings worth of work. His strikeout numbers aren’t extraordinary (63) but his walks are limited (20) – he looks like a typical pitch to contact Twins starter. The Twins are going to promote pitchers, due to their 2013 needs, Hermsen certainly could be one of the players to get a shot.

15. Kyle Gibson

- Gibson has been pitching in Fort Myers as he recovers from his injuries sustained last season. Gibson will very likely be in the Twins starting rotation by mid 2013, but why not give him a shot for a few weeks in September? He’s at the bottom of my list because I don’t think the Twins will call him up, but he would be another player to look for and will likely be heading to the majors in the near future.