Figuring Out Samuel Deduno

Last night, the Twins and Samuel Deduno stymied the Boston Red Sox in route to a 5-0 victory in the opening game of a 3 game set in Boston. Deduno notched his third win of the season and left the game with an impressive state line: 6.0 IP, 2H, 4BB, 1K.

Outside of two Adrian Gonzalez hits, Deduno kept the Boston players at bay – forcing nearly every ball in play right to Brian Dozier or Alexi Casilla. A few hits pushed Ben Revere or Denard Span to the warning track, but for the large part of the game, Deduno was unhittable.

Deduno was called up in early July after Carl Pavano hit the disabled list. Deduno has been a career minor leaguer – in the game since 2003, he has only made two other appearances in the majors (2010 with Colorado and 2011 with San Diego) both of those appearances were as a relief pitcher.

Deduno has four pitches in his arsenal, a fastball that tops out 92 MPH and averages 89, as well as a changeup, slider and curveball. Of those four, Deduno throws the fastball the most (55% of his pitches this season) but he also leans heavily on his curve (35%).

Deduno looked destined to be an ‘also-ran’ or forgotten bullpen minor league arm. Over 9 years his ‘stuff’ never matured to the point where he warranted a major league spot. It was only out of desperation that he was given a chance to pitch for the Twins this season – an opportunity which he appears to be making the most of.

The win pushed Deduno’s record to 3-0 with a 2.48 ERA in 5 starts this season. Deduno has put up strong stats in each of his last 3 starts:

VS Kansas City	6.1 IP	6 Hits	3 BB / 4 K	1 ER
VS Cleveland	7.0 IP	2 Hits	5 BB / 6 K	1 ER
VS Boston	6.0 IP	2 Hits	4 BB / 1K	0 ER

At first glance, it looks like Deduno has put dominant starts together – which is partially true, his end results are solid wins in which he has limited the other team to 1 or fewer runs – but the route he takes to get there is anything but dominant.

Deduno has a strikeout to walk ratio of nearly 1 to 1 (19 strikeouts, 20 walks) and by simply watching him pitch you can clearly see that he has control problems. Deduno’s fastball is hard to predict, one pitch it will nail an inside corner for a strike and the very next pitch will bounce in the dirt 3 feet in front of home plate. His control issues have forced him to work longer counts and he is prone to working behind batters early in counts.

Deduno’s savior has been his breaking ball. He’ll frequently go to a changeup or another off speed pitch in what are typically “fastball” counts (3-0, 3-1). Unlike his fastball, Deduno seems to have excellent control of his off speed pitches, frequently painting the corners of the strike zone with a nasty looking curve.  

What Does This All Mean?

At 29 years old, it’s not likely that Deduno can be viewed as a pitching prospect or as even a long term option as a starter for the team. His success, however, has been a pleasant surprise in a season filled with disappointing pitching performances.

The obvious question with Deduno is “can he keep it up?” Clearly, anytime a pitcher struggles with control as badly as he does, you have to wonder if it is only a matter of time before the wheels simply fall off of the “good pitching bus”.

I actually lean to the “yes, he can keep this up” side of the argument for Deduno. If you look at his stats as a reliever for San Diego and Colorado, they show an interesting trend. Deduno’s 2010 stats:

4 Games

2.2 IP

1 ER

1 BB / 3 K

1.50 WHIP

Look oddly similar to his 2011 stats:

2 Games

3.0 IP

1 ER

3 BB / 4 K

2.67 WHIP

Which follow the same pattern his 2012 stats are taking:

5 Games

29.0 IP

8 ER

20 BB / 19 K

1.45 WHIP

You can argue that what we’re seeing from Deduno is exactly what you can expect to get. He’s going to walk batters, he tends to allow balls to be put in play, but he keeps the game in control. You can call it ‘effectively wild’ – but the key to that is the first part “effective”.

The counter argument to Deduno’s future success is that teams will begin taking more pitches, counting on his poor control to get him in trouble. A look at his more advanced stats will show this may not be an effective strategy, however.

In 29 innings this season, Deduno has induced only a handful of swinging strikes. He’s the prototypical Twins “pitch to contact” pitcher that gets his outs via groundballs. This season his ground ball to fly ball ratio is 2.65 to 1 – meaning he’s getting over 2.5 times as many groundball outs as fly ball outs. For a pitch to contact pitcher, that’s huge.

Simply sitting back and letting Deduno pitch into a jam may backfire as Deduno can throw strikes with the off speed pitches in his repertoire. Luckily, when the opposing team does decide to swing and put the ball in play, it’s been staying in the infield, resulting in weak groundball outs and quick, efficient innings.

Long Term Outlook:

It’s hard to say what Deduno’s long term outlook is with the Twins. If he can maintain his current success, he’s certainly locked into a rotation spot through the rest of this season.

Next season is a little more tricky. The Twins pitching rotation needs rebuilding – that much is a given. Scott Diamond is the only current starter that should be ensured a starting spot next season. If Deduno’s ‘effectively wild’ pitching continues to be effective, he could lock down a roll as a long reliever for the Twins in the next campaign.

In all honestly, as much as I like to cheer for Deduno and love that he’s seeing success after a long career in the minors, I HOPE he’s not in the starting rotation come 2013. If Deduno is expected to be a long term answer to the Twins pitching problem or if the Twins can’t come up with 4 other guys who are better (more reliable) than Deduno for next season, it likely means we’re on our way to watching another losing season.