Year End Musings

The regular season is drawing to a slow close and the only moments of excitement for Twins fans are brought by a chase for a (meaningless) regular season award and the ability to play potential spoiler for playoff teams. With the Twins on their way to their second straight 90+ loss season, you could be forgiven for long since abandoning this team and turning your attention to football. For those that are still hanging around, there are a few things worth noting. Today I want to go over a multitude of topics to address as the season draws to a close.

Mauer’s Hunt For Batting Title #4

In all honesty, there is little point to the ‘batting title’ it’s not an official MLB award, there’s no hardware handed out at the end of the season, nothing to decorate a players mantle to even note the accomplishment. It’s merely a statistical “kudos” that baseball writers and hard core fans like to acknowledge at the end of the season.

That being said, I’m really wrapped up in Joe Mauer’s chase to win his 4^th batting title. With very little to cheer for this year, it’s nice to have a Twins player be at the top of something for once (outside of highest ERA). After Mauer’s 3 for 4 night last night, he pulled within 3 points (.326) of Miguel Cabrerra of the Detroit Tigers (.329).

Mauer’s been swinging a hot bat of late – hitting nearly .420 in his past 10 games. His hot stick should prove the Twins fans who boo Mauer or believe that Mauer is overpaid because he “doesn’t hit home runs” to be foolish. Joe is one of the best players in baseball, and he’s proving it with his hot streak to close out 2012.

It’s a meaningless statistical title – but I’m pulling like crazy for Mauer to win it.

The Pitching Sliver Lining

2012 has been the year of the disastrous starting rotation (from the Twins perspective).

2011 was the year of the horrendous bullpen. It may be in the back of Twins fans’ minds, but last year was marred by many, many games being given away by a bullpen that couldn’t hold a lead. (Matt Capps took a lot of blame for this – but he was not the lone culprit of 2011’s leaky bullpen).

The Twins addressed their bullpen woes by focusing in on ‘under the radar’ chips for the bullpen. As a whole, they have been successful. Jared Burton has been phenomenal as the set-up man for Glen Perkins while Casey Fien has proven to be a great situational arm against lefties. The Twins’ younger prospects have stepped up as well. Tyler Robertson has proven to be a great LOOGY specialist, Glen Perkins has morphed into a dominant closer and Brian Duensing is the right handed shut down guy the Twins have needed for years.

The ‘pen isn’t fixed, Alex Burnett holds the lowest strikeout percentage in the majors for a reliever – and only has a 3.25 ERA – something that will not hold up over time. Luis Perdomo, Jeff Manship and Kyle Waldrop don’t look like they’re ready to be full time Major League players either.

Even with those smaller holes, the Twins bullpen ERA has dropped to 3.60 from the 4.55 ERA it posted last season. That’s a massive improvement and a great foundation to build a winning team.

No Front Runner For Starter

The 2013 Twins rotation has one spot guaranteed – Scott Diamond. The other four spots are wide open. Unfortunately, no one is really stepping up to claim those available spots. Liam Hendriks, the 23 year old rookie, is likely to have one of those spots heading into next year, but his poor showing against the Yankees on Monday night may have tipped the Twins’ front office feel on Liam. GM Terry Ryan said that he felt Hendriks’ outing was a good indicator of what he had to offer – given Hendriks coughed up 4 home runs and 6 runs overall, that’s not exactly a ringing endorsement.

Samuel Deduno, who had been riding a relatively hot streak prior to his last two starts, has looked utterly hittable against the Tigers and White Sox. Today’s outing against New York looms large for Deduno. A good performance and he’ll be back on track for a spot in 2013 – another drumming and the Twins may have serious pause before penciling his name into the rotation.

Esmerling Vasquez looked solid last night against a dangerous Yankee lineup, but those performances have been the exception rather than the rule. He’ll have to show more consistency before being allowed into consideration.

PJ Walters looked great against Detroit, but was blown up by the Tigers in his previous outing. Consistency is the biggest issue with Walters right now. He’s looked great – but he’s also been shelled.

Cole DeVries was likely moving his way into the second slot behind Scott Diamond prior to suffering a season ending injury against Cleveland a few weeks ago. Like every pitcher listed above, DeVries’ biggest issue has been consistency. He’s looked great at times and has been shelled on other occasions.

If I had to pick one of the above pitchers for a slot into next year’s rotation it would probably be DeVries – but I can’t say that decision fills me with confidence. If one fan feels that way – imagine how the front office feels.

Parmelee Deserves A Full Time Spot

Chris Parmelee has bounced around between the majors and minors this year simply because the team didn’t really have a place to put him. Not wanting him to just rot on the bench, the Twins decided instead to allow Parmelee to play in Rochester for most of the season.

Parmelee’s September has once again shown that he’s ready for the big leagues. He’s hitting very well over the past few weeks – showing the ability to use the entire field while still hitting for power. Possibly the most impressive part of Parmelee’s game is his plate discipline. He’s showing signs of having a great eye at the plate (Joe Mauer-esque). In a 10 pitch battle against Phil Hughes Parmelee fought off several strikes before taking a ball that was just barely out of the zone for ball four.

Parmelee has hit at every level – and is now showing the ability to hit major league pitching. He’s too good to send down next season, and he’s shown that he’s deserving of a roster spot. The question is, where do you play him?

Odd Man Out

With Parmelee’s strong play, the Twins have a problem. (a good problem, but a problem none the less) They currently have too much talent and not enough positions to play said talent. Josh Willingham is a fixture in left field, Ryan Doumit occupies the DH role when not catching, Justin Morneau plays better at first base, Mauer backs up Morneau at first for Morneau’s off days. Each spot Parmelee could play has an entrenched veteran or another up and coming player – so, there’s no place for Parmelee to play.

With the Twins rebuilding / retooling – they’re obviously going to want to keep young talent around. Parmelee isn’t eligible to become a free agent until 2018, meaning he’s the exact “young talent” that Twins need to build around.

So, who is the odd man out? Justin Morneau is the obvious front runner as he’s currently filling Parmelee’s natural spot. At $14 million per year, Morneau’s contract is also holding down a big portion of the Twins salary cap. That being said, Morneau has looked solid in the second half of 2012 and is starting to return to pre-concussion form. The trade market for Morneau is likely to be limited this offseason for an aging, highly paid first baseman with an injury risk and I don’t see the Twins giving Morneau away for nothing. Given that situation – I don’t think Justin is the odd man out.

The player with the most value to other clubs and that is most expendable from the Twins point of view is… Denard Span. As solid as Span has been this season, there’s no getting around the fact that Ben Revere is a better defensive center fielder. Revere has shown flashes of hitting for high average, and while he has zero power to Span’s minimal power, Revere does steal bases. Revere’s (lack of) arm strength also makes him a better fit in center than either of the corner outfields.

Span has a cheap, team friendly contract and would function well as a leadoff man in any offense. That makes him a highly attractive chip for multiple teams – a chip that the Twins could spin into starting pitchers for 2013. In addition, that would open right field for Parmelee and move Revere to center.

As much as it bites to move a great player in his prime, the Twins are going to have to be willing to move some of their good players to bolster the rest of the roster.

Forecasting The 2013 Starting Rotation

It doesn’t even need to be explained. Twins fans know it, the front office knows it, the rest of the AL Central knows it – the Twins are in desperate need of starting pitching.

In a season where the Twins offseason moves shined and the offense looked unbeatable, the Twins are still sitting at the bottom of the AL Central because of a complete lack of any pitching talent.

Francisco Liriano couldn’t conquer any internal demons and never materialized into ace the Twins needed him to be.

Liam Hendriks’ youth and inexperience has seen him bounce between the majors and minor leagues all season.

Anthony Swarzak proved to be a long reliever who couldn’t translate his ability into full starts.

Carl Pavano battled injuries and inefficiency all season before being shut down in June.

Jason Marquis simply didn’t have any gas left in the tank.

Brain Duensing, like Swarzak, is better out of the pen than starting the game.

The above six players were essentially the Twins starting rotation going into 2012 (Duensing started ’12 out of the pen, but was viewed as the 6^th starter if the team needed him). With the benefit of hindsight, it’s easy to see where the season fell off the rails before it began. Relying on a pitcher with A level stuff by C- level mental ability and a rag tag group of rookies and aging veterans wasn’t exactly the best plan. Unfortunately for the Twins, it was the plan they rolled out and are now on their way to their second 90+ loss season.

The Twins have rolled in some patches throughout the season in PJ Walters, Cole DeVries, Samuel Deduno and Scott Diamond and have found some varying forms of success in each of them. Outside of Diamond, it’s hard to say that any of these ‘patches’ has done enough to become a full time starter in 2013, however.

The Twins front office has said that the free agent market for pitchers in 2013 is “sparse” – a fact that is actually incorrect if you take a deeper look into who is available and what the Twins will need. Let’s take a moment to review the Twins options for pitchers next season.

The Incumbents:

1. Scott Diamond: By virtue of his great 2012 season, Diamond has locked in a spot for 2013. While he has been the ace of the staff this season, Diamond’s realistic ceiling is probably as a #2 or #3 pitcher. He’s a solid pitcher, but won’t out-duel the Felix Hernandez, Justin Verlander, Jared Weaver or CC Sabathias of the AL.

2. Liam Hendriks: Hendriks is young (23) has great talent and is at the pinnacle of his minor league career (he dominated the AAA level in 2012 with a 9-3 record and 2.20 ERA). He’s primed and ready to go as a Major League pitcher. If he can get over his mental hurdles (meltdowns in big spots) he has the talent to be a #2 or #3 pitcher in the Twins rotation.

3. Cole DeVries: DeVries came into the Twins rotation as a stop gap replacement for the struggling Nick Blackburn. After a few shaky starts, DeVries settled into a solid role. DeVries, who is now on the DL due to a cracked rib, finished 2012 with a 5-5 record and 4.11 ERA. It was his last 3 starts (against Texas, Cleveland and Kansas City) that have put the most faith into DeVries’ future prospects however. DeVries averaged 6 innings of work in each of those three starts while giving up only 3 runs and 13 hits. He attacks the strike zone (58 K to 18 BB) and is the prototypical “pitch to contact” Twins pitchers. He’s not an ace, but he could fit very nicely into the #4 slot in the Twins rotation.

4. Samuel Deduno: Had you told me a few weeks ago that I was going to forecast Samuel Deduno as a 2013 starter, I would have probably broken down and cried. (Okay, that’s probably an overestimation but you get the point) Deduno, who was promoted in July – showed early on why he was a 29 year old career minor leaguer. He struggled with his control and simply walked his way into countless jams. A funny thing happened from August 29^th on, however. Deduno suddenly found some control – and when he did, he became nearly unhittable. In his last 4 starts, Deduno has walked only 11 batters while striking out 21. Deduno has a solid curve and slider that he can throw for fairly consistent strikes. His problem pitch had been his fastball – which has so much natural movement it actually looks a little like a knuckleball. When Deduno can spot his fastball – watch out. With each start, Deduno is gaining confidence and is starting to believe he can be a major league pitcher – confidence is a funny thing – and it just might be the thing Deduno needs to become a Major League starter. Right now, I’d slot him as a #5 starter with the potential to become a #3 starter.

5. PJ Walters: Walters entered the Twins rotation between Scott Diamond and Cole DeVries. Unfortunately for PJ, he’s not exactly shown the great command of Diamond or the stability of DeVries. PJ has shown flashes of promise, but was limited during much of this season due to a shoulder injury. As of now, Walters doesn’t quite look ready for the big leagues. I’d expect him to start 2013 in AAA and be one of the first to be called up if an injury where to occur.

6. Esmerling Vasquez: The easy way to sum up Vasquez is to say – See: Samuel Deduno. When Vasquez can throw strikes, he does well. The problem is, he can’t seem to throw strikes that often. 2013 starts in AAA and he will likely spend a majority of the season in the minor unless he begins mowing down the competition.

7. Scott Baker: Baker missed all of 2012 due to Tommy John surgery and is a free agent heading into 2013. He has a team option available on his contract, but at $9 million I doubt the Twins are going to pick it up. Baker could fit nicely into this rotation as a #2 or #3 starter, but he would have to be willing to sign an incentive laden deal to come back to the Twins. I see the Twins making an offer, but Baker will probably sign elsewhere (just a hunch).

8. Carl Pavano: Pavano’s injuries and inconsistency made 2012 a forgetful season. He was in the last year of his deal and although the Twins have said they’d “like to see him back” I don’t see the team chasing after an aging, injury prone pitcher when their in rebuilding mode.

Free Agents:

1. Joe Blanton: Blanton is the type of pitcher I could see the Twins pursuing. He’s a pitch to contact guy who doesn’t have lights out stuff. However, he’s an innings eater who throws strikes (154 K’s in 2012 so far) and limits walks (only 33). He gives up 2-3 runs per game, but he’s consistent. The Dodgers are not likely to resign him and he has the potential to be an under the radar free agent – right up the Twins alley. He’d slot in as a solid #4 in the Twins rotation.

2. Edwin Jackson: He wont’ be cheap, but Edwin Jackson could function as the ‘ace’ of the Twins staff in 2013. Jackson is a strike thrower who limits walks and keeps his team in ballgames. The Nationals could decide to make Jackson a solid offer and keep him in their great rotation – but if Jackson gets to hit the market, the Twins should use some of their budget room to chase down a new ace.

3. Ryan Dempster: The Rangers don’t look like they intend on keeping Dempster around for 2013. It’s likely that Dempster will want to sign with a contender, making the Twins a long shot until they can prove they can win. That being said, Dempster is the type of pitcher the Twins could use. He is having a career year this season, so the Twins can’t really expect a sub 3.00 ERA and double digit strikeouts every year – but Dempster does throw strikes and can keep his team in the game.

4. Carlos Villanueva: Deep down, I’m hoping Villanueva is the guy the Twins sign this offseason. He’s largely off the radar since he pitches for the Blue Jays – but he’s everything the Twins rotation needs. He’s thrown 118.1 innings and has an ERA of 3.42. He boasts an impressive 115 K’s to 43 BB’s and (this is the best part) he’s bound to be relatively cheap as teams focus in on other big name free agents.

Forecasting 2013:

Spring training has yet to be played and the World Series isn’t even over yet – but here’s what I think the Twins 2013 rotation will look like:

1. Scott Diamond – He’s earned the chance to be a top of the rotation guy. Diamond is solid, reliable and consistent and will simply get the job done. For most teams he’d be a great #2 or #3, but for the Twins, he’s their ace.
2. Carlos Villanueva – Just like Diamond, Villanueva is consistent. He throws strikes and keeps his team in the game. At this point, that’s all the Twins need to see to make a pitcher the #2 guy in their system.
3. Liam Hendriks – Hendriks is the young future of the Twins and has the ability to be a very solid middle of the rotation player. He’s bound to improve in the coming seasons and I think the Twins will give him that chance.
4. Joe Blanton – Like I said before, Blanton is the definition of a Twins pitcher. The ball gets put in play against Blanton, but perhaps the pitching friendly dimensions of Target Field will help keep some of the balls in the park. He’s an innings eater that will post an ERA around 4 – but that sort of consistency is exactly what the Twins want. A #5 guy in most systems, Blanton could be enticed by the #4 slot in the Twins rotation.
5. Cole DeVries – There’s a theme here – DeVries throws strikes, doesn’t let the big moments get to him and has shown the ability to manage games. If given a full season, I could see DeVries becoming the player the Twins wanted Nick Blackburn to be – a back of the rotation guy who gets the ball every 5^th day and delivers 6 solid innings of 2 to 3 run baseball.

My plan has the Twins grabbing two free agent pitchers off the discount rack. This strategy syncs well with what the Twins do (see: Jared Burton, Darin Mastroianni, Josh Willingham)

The Twins aren’t going to go crazy and chase down Jake Peavy or Zack Greinke and they don’t have the ‘win now’ foundation that will draw over Ryan Dempster or Edwin Jackson. While the team could probably persuade Jackson with a truck full of cash, that strategy doesn’t jive with what the Twins do – they are, and for the foreseeable future will always be, bargain hunters. Blanton and Villanueva are bargain pitchers who fit a definite need.

My plan leaves out Samuel Deduno, Scott Baker and PJ Walters. While I’m certainly pulling for Deduno to figure out his control issues and finally “stick” at the big league level, I’d wager the Twins don’t want to head into 2013 with such a large question mark in their rotation. He’ll likely get to start the season at AAA and if he can show that he has found his control he’ll be the first one to get the call if / when the Twins need a starter.

The rumblings around the Twins organization is that Scott Baker is unhappy with the way the team handled his injury – essentially telling him to pitch through the pain until it was discovered that he had a torn UCL. With the Twins likely looking to get Baker for cheap, I could see him jumping ship and taking another offer with another club. If the Twins were able to sign Baker, I think that would knock Joe Blanton off the Twins radar. That being said, I don’t see Baker on this staff next season.

Finally, PJ Walters is simply an unproven commodity at this point. Cole DeVries has shown more to the Twins and will likely get the nod ahead of Walters for the starting spot. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Walters get a long reliever spot – filling in alongside Duensing and Swarzak out of the ‘pen.

One thing to keep in mind is that the youngster Kyle Gibson could be ready for action in 2013 as well. Gibson spent most of 2012 recovering from Tommy John surgery but showed great promise in a few starts at the A level at the end of the season. He’s likely to start 2013 in AAA and, assuming he continues to look sharp, could be a factor in the Twins rotation as soon as July of 2013.

This rotation isn’t likely to excite the fans, but I think it’s the most realistic example of the approach the Twins will take. They’re not going to ignore their needs – they won’t be foolish enough to think they can shuffle the current staff and pass that off on the fans for another season. That being said, this team isn’t going to go chase big name free agents. Look at how they rebuilt the bullpen for 2012. Jared Burton, Casey Fien, Jeff Gray (OK that was a miss) but now that bullpen is solid and all they did was pick up under the radar arms.

Personally, I’d be excited if the Twins rolled out my forecasted rotation in 2013 – at the very least it’d be a rotation that would keep the team in games. With this offense, that’s really all the team needs.

Hendriks Earns Win #1

It was a long time coming, but it finally happened. Last night, Liam Hendriks, the 23 year old Twins pitcher hailing from Australia, earned his first Major League win in his 18^th try.

Hendriks’ numbers this year have been disappointing to say the least. He currently holds a 1-7 record with a 5.88 ERA and has been promoted and demoted three times this season due to inconsistent pitching at the big league level.

This is a case where numbers don’t tell the whole story, however. Hendriks has a great strike to ball ratio and has 43 k’s and only 23 walks in 72.0 innings worth of work. When Hendriks is attacking the strikezone, he’s difficult to hit. He’s proven this at the minor league level all season. In 16 games with AAA Rochester, Hendriks posted a 9-3 record with a paltry 2.20 ERA. He struck out 82 batters and only walked 28 in 106.1 innings worth of work. The problem for Hendriks was channeling that ability to his Major League starts.

In a start last month against the Mariners it looked like he had finally figured everything out. Hendriks aggressively hit the strikezone and shut down the Mariners’ offense. Hendriks went all 9 innings allowing only 3 hits and walked only 3 batters while stiking out 6. Unfortunately, one of the hits Hendriks allowed was a solo home run over the left field wall. Twice as unfortunate, Hendriks was squaring off against Felix Hernandez who held the Twins to zero runs and earned the win.

Hendriks has suffered from the ‘bad inning syndrome’ a few times this season as well. In a September 1^st start against Kansas City, Hendriks was staked to an early 8-1 lead. Despite the big lead, Hendriks’ command issues forced him to be pulled after only 3.2 innings worth of work (he gave up 10 hits – but only 3 earned runs – but Ron Gardenhire decided to pull him rather than work out of the jam).

The big moments have seemed to get to Hendriks this season. When the defense falters behind him or when Hendriks is facing a “must out” situation, he tends to implode and let the situation unravel.

This is likely due to simple inexperience. He is just 23 years old, and is facing his first real season of Major League batters. Hendriks has the raw ability – you can see it when he pitches that he has the talent to be a very good starter for the Twins next season and beyond.

I fully believe that Hendriks will figure out how to manage the big situations and eventually move into the #2 or #3 role in the Twins starting rotation.

The best evidence that this sort of turn around is possible is Scott Diamond. In 2011, Diamond posted a weak 1-5 record with a 5.01 ERA. He looked very similar to Hendriks in that big situations seemed to mushroom out of control while he was on the mound.

In 2012, Diamond has been the Twins' ace – running out to a solid 10-5 record with 2.95. (Diamond’s numbers have since come down, but that can likely be attributed to arm fatigue. Diamond has thrown more innings this season than he ever has in his career).

Hopefully this first win helps Hendriks get over the mental hurdles he's been battling all season. He's shown that if he works at an efficient pace and throws strikes, attacks the zone and trusts his stuff, he can win a ball game. If Hendriks can routinely channel the groove he found last night in Cleveland, he will be just fine at the big league level.

So, congratulations to Liam Hendriks for finally getting over the bump and earning Major League victory #1. Here’s to a few more wins in 2012 and a great, ‘Diamond like’ 2013.

Evaluating The Twins Middle Infield Options

The Twins entered the 2012 with multiple questions. Would a rotation based around the inconsistent Francisco Liriano, aging Carl Pavano and Jason Marquis and unproven Liam Hendriks be enough to keep the team competitive? (Short answer: no) Would Matt Capps recover from a bad 2011 to provide the Twins with a reliable closing option? (short answer: first yes, then no). Who would step up to be the next Twins shortstop, second baseman and third baseman? (Short answer: Plouffe at 3B and…um… good question?)

In fact, the Twins middle infield is still the biggest question mark facing this team as they wrap up 2012 and look forward to 2013. (I’d argue that the pitching staff isn’t a question mark – it’s a known issue.)

The Twins are not lacking for options in the middle infield, but that doesn’t necessarily mean the team is well prepared to answer the question either. As 2012 winds down and the Twins move to the offseason, let’s look at the candidates for the Twins starting short stop and second base spots in 2013.

Brian Dozier:

Dozier was called up in early May thanks to a strong spring showing and a decent string of success in AAA Rochester. Initially, it looked like Dozier was the answer at short for the Twins. He hit well in the first month at the big leagues, pushing across 2 HRs and 16 RBI while batting at or around .270.

As the months warmed up, Dozier cooled down. He began to have absolutely horrid at bats, frequently striking out swinging at pitches in the dirt. Dozier’s defense started to decline with his batting average. Dozier’s 53 strikeouts in 354 PA showed his lack of patience at the plate and the Twins front office felt that these struggles were carrying over to the field. By the time Dozier was demoted to AAA in late August his defense had yielded 15 errors in 83 games and his batting average had fallen to a pedestrian .234.

Dozier was thought to be a sure September call up for the Twins, but was left in the minors when the Twins made their announcements. Dozier is slated to play winter ball for the Twins and will likely have to show better plate discipline and greatly improved defense in order to make a return to the majors in 2013.

Jamey Carroll

Carroll was signed to a 2 year $6.75 million contract in the offseason with the Twins intending to use him between 2B and SS as a utility infielder. A lack of better options thrust Carroll into a starting role and made him an everyday player. He’s made appearances at 3B, 2B and SS in 124 games for the Twins this season.

While Carroll’s offense is never going to lead the league, his defense has proven to be valuable for the once anemic Twins infield. He’s not flashy and doesn’t have the best defensive range, but he does make the routine plays and avoids costly errors.

Carroll is 38 years old, however, and likely cannot be counted on to be an everyday player for the 2013 campaign. He’ll make the team out of spring training, but look for the Twins to platoon him at 2B and SS with another option to reduce the wear on Carroll throughout the season.

Pedro Florimon

The Twins claimed Florimon off of waivers from the Orioles during the 2011 offseason. The move went mostly unnoticed at the time as Florimon looked to be a utility infielder at best.

Florimon started 2012 in AAA Rochester and performed well, hitting .251 in 83 games while showing great defensive prowess at short stop. Upon Brian Dozier’s demotion in August, Florimon was pulled up to Minnesota and given the chance to start nearly every game at short.

Florimon has performed well during this brief stretch. He’s hitting .267 with 5 doubles and 2 triples in 23 games. His speed on the bases makes him a nice addition to an already speedy team (Revere, Mastroianni, Span, Casilla) and his discipline at the plate is decidedly more patient and careful than Brian Dozier’s.

Florimon has shown great defensive range at short as well, making diving stops and catches that have eluded other Twins short stops over the past two seasons. His defense isn’t flawless, however, and Florimon has prevented himself from being declared the defacto starter in 2013 due to his errors (5 in 23 games). The Twins coaches have indicated that they feel Florimon’s errors are due more to his adjusting to the speed of the big league game – rather than his inability to play the position.

Eduardo Escobar

Escobar came to the Twins from the White Sox in the Francisco Liriano trade. Escobar is a 23 year old toolsy infielder who has the ability to play 2B, SS and 3B. He has good defensive range and above average speed.

Escobar’s bat, however, is slightly below average. That being said, he can be a serviceable option at any of the infield positions for the Twins in 2013.

Alexi Casilla

Casilla was trumpeted as the Twins future middle infield star when he made his Twins debut in 2006. Unfortunately, Casilla’s bat has never lived up to expectations for the Twins and his defense has bounced between excellent and below average.

Casilla has struggled at SS and doesn’t hit well enough to be given a full time shot at 3B – forcing him to act as a full time 2B for much of 2012.

Casilla has felt largely forgotten this season, appearing in only 93 games and making 299 plate appearances. His demotion is due in large part to declining offensive numbers. Casilla is hitting .219 (his second lowest BA) and has stuck out 52 times (his highest total). It’s telling that in a season where almost anyone with a pulse was given a shot to be the full time answer at SS, Casilla was relegated to bench duty.

Casilla is arbitration eligible this offseason and is expected to earn close to $3 million. Look for the Twins to non-tender Casilla and let the veteran walk away in free agency.

Minor League Options:

Eddie Rosario

Rosario has the talent to be the Twins next all-star. He hit .296 with an .835 OPS in 95 games in A level Beloit and has shown great defensive ability at 2B. He’ll likely start 2013 in AA New Britain, however, and will not be seen in the majors in 2013 unless he’s called up in September.

The Twins have other minor league infield options (Levi Michael, Niko Goodrum) but they are both multiple years away from any sort of major league promotion.

Free Agent Options:

Yuniesky Bentancourt, Stephen Drew, Cesar Izturis, Jeff Baker, Ryan Theriot, Jose Lopez

The minor league middle infield market is thin and filled with aging options better suited for a team closer to contention. The Twins could take a flyer on a player like Bentancourt and see if they catch lightning in a bottle – but I’d imagine their free agent funds are going towards pitching this offseason.

How it shakes out:

It’s obviously too early to call a winner for the 2013 SS and 2B jobs, but they way the Twins are handling the end of 2012 does give us some clear indicators.

Right now, it looks like the starting short stop job is Pedro Florimon’s to lose. So long as he continues to hit in the .250-.270 ballpark and has dangerous speed on the base path he’ll be the best offensive option for the Twins. His defensive range gives him the clear lead – he simply makes plays that Dozier and Carroll cannot make. Outside of a terrible spring, I believe Florimon will be starting for the Twins at SS in 2013.

Jamey Carroll is under team control for 2013 and has looked most comfortable at 2B this season. His solid defense and average bat will allow him to see a decent level of playing time in 2013 – and he’ll likely be the opening day starter at 2B.

Brain Dozier has been slated as a more natural second baseman rather than a short stop. As such, the Twins could choose to platoon him with Carroll at 2B in 2013. I don’t believe they will, however. The Twins sent Dozier down to AAA so he could work on his offense and defense – something that didn’t happen in the final month of the AAA season. Dozier will not benefit from sitting on the bench and playing every third day – so I’d wager the Twins will send Dozier to AAA to start the season and call him up if Florimon or Carroll go down with an injury.

As I mentioned above, I believe the Twins will let Alexi Casilla walk away this winter. Eduardo Escobar can do everything Casilla can do and will do it at a cheaper price. With his ability to fill in at SS and 2B, I think Escobar starts the 2013 season as the Twins utility infielder.

There is no shortage of options for the Twins’ middle infield situation coming into 2013. Unfortunately, that is due more to a lack of a frontrunner rather than too much talent. The bright side of this situation is that the Twins can honestly say they are better off coming into 2013 than they were coming into 2012. With 4 decent options at 2 positions, the team has something they haven’t had in years – infield depth.

Postseason Prognostication

Labor Day is over, the calendar reads September and the NFL is getting ready to kickoff another season of America’s favorite sport. By all accounts, fans should be switching away from the boys of summer and moving on to the greats of the gridiron.

Fans of the Mariners, Twins, Padres, Mets, Blue Jays, Marlins, Rockies, Cubs, Astros, Indians, and Royals can be forgiven if they jump ship on the MLB season and move their focus to the NFL.

However, true baseball fans no better than to ignore the MLB now, even if their team is long since buried in the cellar and is rebuilding for 2013. Even though I’m a Twins fan and this is a Twins focused blog – I’m pumped for the coming weeks and the MLB postseason. Despite the NFL kicking things off tonight, MLB is where the real excitement is.

As of 9/5/12, there are four divisions with leaders who are up by 5 games or less. Not to mention the new wild card system, which places two teams into the playoffs this season, has six teams within reach on the AL side and six on the NL side (although Philly and the Mets are ‘within reach’ they don’t realistically have a shot at the postseason).

This postseason run is going to be exciting. With only handful of games left to play (26 to 27 for most teams) let’s take a look at the division races and try to forecast a winner.

The AL East:

Current Standings:

Baltimore 76-59  

Remaining series: 4 vs. NYY, 6 vs. TB, 3 vs. OAK, 3 vs. SEA, 6 vs. BOS, 5 vs. TOR

New York 76-59 GB: 0

Remaining series: 4 vs BAL, 6 vs BOS, 4 vs TB, 3 vs OAK, 3 vs MIN, 7 vs TOR

Tampa Bay 75-61 GB 1.5

Remaining series: 3 vs TEX, 6 vs BAL, 4 vs NYY, 6 vs BOS, 3 vs TOR, 4 vs CWS,

The AL East is shaping up to be one of the more exciting races as we enter the final weeks of the season. Of the group, the Yankees have the easiest road, playing 16 games against teams with a losing record. Baltimore is close behind with 14 games against losing opponents. Poor Tamp Bay has a gauntlet of playoff teams on the schedule, with 17 games against division leaders on the docket.

Prediction: The upcoming 4 game spread between Baltimore and New York will go a long way in determining the division winners. If the O’s can take 3 of 4, they’ll pull away and win the division. If the Yankees manage to win the series 3-1 or even 4-0, they’re likely out of reach for the rest of the east. Tampa Bay is punished for simply having too hard of a schedule in comparison to the rest of the division. However, if the Rays can win their big series against the Yankees and O’s, they could still slip in and play sleeper. This one is going to be a fascinating finish.

Baltimore: 95-67

New York: 93-69

Tampa Bay: 91-71

AL Central

Current Standings:

Chicago: 73-62

Remaining series: 6 vs KC, 4 vs DET, 4 vs MIN, 3 vs LAA, 6 vs CLE, 4 vs TB

Detroit: 72-63 GB: 1

Remaining series: 3 vs LAA, 4 vs CWS, 4 vs CLE, 3 vs OAK, 6 vs MIN, 7 vs KC

Would someone please stand up and win this division? All season long, the White Sox and Tigers have danced with the division lead, but neither team has been good enough to reach out and simply take it. The Tigers’ offense should be good enough to carry this division easily, but their pitching has been poor. The White Sox offense has been playing above their expectations, but like Detroit, their pitching is suspect. The Tigers have the easiest road as 16 of their next games are against losing teams, 13 of those being against Minnesota and Kansas City. Meanwhile, the White Sox have 16 games against losing teams, but have a tougher Tampa Bay team to face at the end of the season.

Prediction: Unlike the east, where the head to head matchups will likely determine the division, I think the central is going to come down to the ‘other’ matchups. Both Chicago and Detroit get to feast on KC, Minnesota and Cleveland in the final games and each team has a matchup with the always dangerous Angles. The difference here is that Detroit finishes the season with the Royals while the White Sox get a scrappy Tampa team making their own playoff push. That last series of the season is the determining factor in this race.

Detroit: 93-69

Chicago: 92-70

AL West

Current Standings:

Texas: 80-55

Remaining series: 2 vs KC, 3 vs TB, 3 vs CLE, 6 vs SEA, 6 vs LAA, 7 vs OAK

Oakland: 76-59 GB: 4.0

Remaining series: 5 vs LAA, 6 vs SEA, 3 vs BAL, 3 vs DET, 3 vs NYY, 7 vs TEX

Los Angeles: 73-63 GB: 7.5

Remaining series: 5 vs OAK, 3 vs DET, 3 vs KC, 6 vs TEX, 3 vs CWS, 6 vs SEA

While the west is not nearly as tight as the other divisions, a quick look at the upcoming games shows you that things my change soon. The Rangers end the season battling Tampa Bay, Oakland and the Angels, making 16 of their remaining 27 games high pressure games. The A’s don’t have things any easier, facing Detroit, Baltimore and the Yankees down the stretch. 21 of their final 27 are against playoff teams, making their road the toughest to the post season. The Angels, meanwhile, are largely forgotten in terms of the playoff race. Their fade in August has made them afterthoughts in the AL West. IF (big if) the Angels can play to their potential, they have the best shot of sneaking in the race. With 6 games against Texas and 5 against Oakland, the 7.5 game lead can be eaten up quickly. A 3 game set with KC and 6 game series with Seattle makes their final schedule slightly easier than Oakland and Texas’ remaining slate.

Prediction: While the A’s have been a great story during the second half of the season, their final schedule is simply too daunting to have any hope of winning the division. Even if they finish these final games with a strong winning record their quality of competition is simply too steep in comparison to the Angels and Rangers. The Rangers are too good to lose this division, but don’t sleep on the Angels making things tighter than expected.

Texas: 98-64

LAA: 89-73

Oakland: 88-74

NL West

Current Standings:

San Francisco: 77-59

Remaining series: 7 vs ARZ, 6 vs LAD, 7 vs COL, 6 vs SD

Los Angeles Dodgers: 73-64 GB: 4.5

Remaining series: 4 vs SD, 6 vs SF, 2 vs ARZ, 4 vs STL, 3 vs WAS, 3 vs CIN, 3 vs COL

The Dodgers went all in with the acquisition of half the Red Sox payroll – err – roster. The race with the Giants has been a tight one all season, with each team showing their strengths from time to time. Both are balanced teams who could make a nice run into the playoffs, both have flaws – the Dodgers with pitching and the Giants with consistent offense. With only a 4.5 game difference, this division will come down to the wire.

Prediction: The final schedules will dictate how this division winds up. The Giants have a relatively easy slate, playing 20 of their next 26 games against teams with losing records. The Dodgers have a daunting schedule, facing the always tough Cardinals, NL East winning Nationals and NL Central winning Reds during that same span. The Giants’ schedule is soft, the Dodgers’ is grueling – that makes the final prediction relatively easy.

San Francisco: 96-66

Los Angeles: 88-74

The Wild Card Race:

AL

(Assuming the division leaders listed above)

New York Yankees 93-69

Chicago White Sox 92-70

Tamp Bay Rays 91-71

Los Angeles Angels 89-73

Oakland A’s 88-74

By my estimations, the Yankees will make the #1 wild card spot on the basis of a 93-69 record. The #2 spot goes to the White Sox, who narrowly beat out the Rays by one game to get into the postseason. (That 4 game slate between the Rays and White Sox is going to be HUGE for postseason placement).

NL

(Assuming the division winners below)

NL East: Washington

NL Central: Cincinnati

NL West: San Francisco

St. Louis 93-69

Atlanta 92-70

Pittsburgh 89-73

The Cardinals and Braves are in a dead heat for the wild card right now, but I believe the Cardinals pull ahead on their remaining schedule. As you can see by how I have them finishing, it’s essentially a toss-up for the top 2 wild card spots. The Pirates, despite facing a easier schedule down the stretch, are simply too far back to jump into the postseason.

So, by my prognostication, I have the 2012 MLB playoffs looking as follows:

#1 Texas 98-64

#2 Orioles 95-67

#3 Detroit 93-69

#4 New York Yankees 93-69

#5 Chicago White Sox 92-70

#1 Cincinnati 103-59

#2 Washington 101-61

#3 San Francisco 96-66

#4 St. Louis 93-69

#5 Atlanta 92-70

MLB Playoff predictions don’t mean a thing if you aren’t willing to actually predict – so, I’ll play out the playoffs like so:

In the AL:

NYY over CWS in wild card playoff

TEX over NYY in 4 games (3-1)

DET over BAL in 5 games (3-2)

TEX over DET in 7 games (4-3)

In the NL:

ATL over STL in wild card playoff

CIN over ATL in 3 games (3-0)

WAS over SF in 5 games (3-2)

WAS over CIN in 7 games (4-3)

World Series:

TEX over WAS in 7 games (4-3)

That’s my ‘bold’ prediction for the MLB playoffs. I’ll come back and revisit this prediction after the field is officially set as well.

It might be the start of the NFL season, but that doesn’t mean the excitement has left the MLB season. We’re getting closer to the final push and then entering what is sure to be an entertaining playoff race. Stay tuned baseball fans!