It doesn’t even need to be explained. Twins fans know it, the front office knows it, the rest of the AL Central knows it – the Twins are in desperate need of starting pitching.
In a season where the Twins offseason moves shined and the offense looked unbeatable, the Twins are still sitting at the bottom of the AL Central because of a complete lack of any pitching talent.
Francisco Liriano couldn’t conquer any internal demons and never materialized into ace the Twins needed him to be.
Liam Hendriks’ youth and inexperience has seen him bounce between the majors and minor leagues all season.
Anthony Swarzak proved to be a long reliever who couldn’t translate his ability into full starts.
Carl Pavano battled injuries and inefficiency all season before being shut down in June.
Jason Marquis simply didn’t have any gas left in the tank.
Brain Duensing, like Swarzak, is better out of the pen than starting the game.
The above six players were essentially the Twins starting rotation going into 2012 (Duensing started ’12 out of the pen, but was viewed as the 6th starter if the team needed him). With the benefit of hindsight, it’s easy to see where the season fell off the rails before it began. Relying on a pitcher with A level stuff by C- level mental ability and a rag tag group of rookies and aging veterans wasn’t exactly the best plan. Unfortunately for the Twins, it was the plan they rolled out and are now on their way to their second 90+ loss season.
The Twins have rolled in some patches throughout the season in PJ Walters, Cole DeVries, Samuel Deduno and Scott Diamond and have found some varying forms of success in each of them. Outside of Diamond, it’s hard to say that any of these ‘patches’ has done enough to become a full time starter in 2013, however.
The Twins front office has said that the free agent market for pitchers in 2013 is “sparse” – a fact that is actually incorrect if you take a deeper look into who is available and what the Twins will need. Let’s take a moment to review the Twins options for pitchers next season.
The Incumbents:
1. Scott Diamond: By virtue of his great 2012 season, Diamond has locked in a spot for 2013. While he has been the ace of the staff this season, Diamond’s realistic ceiling is probably as a #2 or #3 pitcher. He’s a solid pitcher, but won’t out-duel the Felix Hernandez, Justin Verlander, Jared Weaver or CC Sabathias of the AL
2. Liam Hendriks: Hendriks is young (23) has great talent and is at the pinnacle of his minor league career (he dominated the AAA level in 2012 with a 9-3 record and 2.20 ERA). He’s primed and ready to go as a Major League pitcher. If he can get over his mental hurdles (meltdowns in big spots) he has the talent to be a #2 or #3 pitcher in the Twins rotation.
3. Cole DeVries: DeVries came into the Twins rotation as a stop gap replacement for the struggling Nick Blackburn. After a few shaky starts, DeVries settled into a solid role. DeVries, who is now on the DL due to a cracked rib, finished 2012 with a 5-5 record and 4.11 ERA. It was his last 3 starts (against Texas , Cleveland and Kansas City
4. Samuel Deduno: Had you told me a few weeks ago that I was going to forecast Samuel Deduno as a 2013 starter, I would have probably broken down and cried. (Okay, that’s probably an overestimation but you get the point) Deduno, who was promoted in July – showed early on why he was a 29 year old career minor leaguer. He struggled with his control and simply walked his way into countless jams. A funny thing happened from August 29th on, however. Deduno suddenly found some control – and when he did, he became nearly unhittable. In his last 4 starts, Deduno has walked only 11 batters while striking out 21. Deduno has a solid curve and slider that he can throw for fairly consistent strikes. His problem pitch had been his fastball – which has so much natural movement it actually looks a little like a knuckleball. When Deduno can spot his fastball – watch out. With each start, Deduno is gaining confidence and is starting to believe he can be a major league pitcher – confidence is a funny thing – and it just might be the thing Deduno needs to become a Major League starter. Right now, I’d slot him as a #5 starter with the potential to become a #3 starter.
5. PJ Walters: Walters entered the Twins rotation between Scott Diamond and Cole DeVries. Unfortunately for PJ, he’s not exactly shown the great command of Diamond or the stability of DeVries. PJ has shown flashes of promise, but was limited during much of this season due to a shoulder injury. As of now, Walters doesn’t quite look ready for the big leagues. I’d expect him to start 2013 in AAA and be one of the first to be called up if an injury where to occur.
6. Esmerling Vasquez: The easy way to sum up Vasquez is to say – See: Samuel Deduno. When Vasquez can throw strikes, he does well. The problem is, he can’t seem to throw strikes that often. 2013 starts in AAA and he will likely spend a majority of the season in the minor unless he begins mowing down the competition.
7. Scott Baker: Baker missed all of 2012 due to Tommy John surgery and is a free agent heading into 2013. He has a team option available on his contract, but at $9 million I doubt the Twins are going to pick it up. Baker could fit nicely into this rotation as a #2 or #3 starter, but he would have to be willing to sign an incentive laden deal to come back to the Twins. I see the Twins making an offer, but Baker will probably sign elsewhere (just a hunch).
8. Carl Pavano: Pavano’s injuries and inconsistency made 2012 a forgetful season. He was in the last year of his deal and although the Twins have said they’d “like to see him back” I don’t see the team chasing after an aging, injury prone pitcher when their in rebuilding mode.
Free Agents:
1. Joe Blanton: Blanton is the type of pitcher I could see the Twins pursuing. He’s a pitch to contact guy who doesn’t have lights out stuff. However, he’s an innings eater who throws strikes (154 K’s in 2012 so far) and limits walks (only 33). He gives up 2-3 runs per game, but he’s consistent. The Dodgers are not likely to resign him and he has the potential to be an under the radar free agent – right up the Twins alley. He’d slot in as a solid #4 in the Twins rotation.
2. Edwin Jackson: He wont’ be cheap, but Edwin Jackson could function as the ‘ace’ of the Twins staff in 2013. Jackson Jackson a solid offer and keep him in their great rotation – but if Jackson
3. Ryan Dempster: The Rangers don’t look like they intend on keeping Dempster around for 2013. It’s likely that Dempster will want to sign with a contender, making the Twins a long shot until they can prove they can win. That being said, Dempster is the type of pitcher the Twins could use. He is having a career year this season, so the Twins can’t really expect a sub 3.00 ERA and double digit strikeouts every year – but Dempster does throw strikes and can keep his team in the game.
4. Carlos Villanueva: Deep down, I’m hoping Villanueva is the guy the Twins sign this offseason. He’s largely off the radar since he pitches for the Blue Jays – but he’s everything the Twins rotation needs. He’s thrown 118.1 innings and has an ERA of 3.42. He boasts an impressive 115 K’s to 43 BB’s and (this is the best part) he’s bound to be relatively cheap as teams focus in on other big name free agents.
Forecasting 2013:
Spring training has yet to be played and the World Series isn’t even over yet – but here’s what I think the Twins 2013 rotation will look like:
- Scott Diamond – He’s earned the chance to be a top of the rotation guy. Diamond is solid, reliable and consistent and will simply get the job done. For most teams he’d be a great #2 or #3, but for the Twins, he’s their ace.
- Carlos Villanueva – Just like Diamond, Villanueva is consistent. He throws strikes and keeps his team in the game. At this point, that’s all the Twins need to see to make a pitcher the #2 guy in their system.
- Liam Hendriks – Hendriks is the young future of the Twins and has the ability to be a very solid middle of the rotation player. He’s bound to improve in the coming seasons and I think the Twins will give him that chance.
- Joe Blanton – Like I said before, Blanton is the definition of a Twins pitcher. The ball gets put in play against Blanton, but perhaps the pitching friendly dimensions of Target Field will help keep some of the balls in the park. He’s an innings eater that will post an ERA around 4 – but that sort of consistency is exactly what the Twins want. A #5 guy in most systems, Blanton could be enticed by the #4 slot in the Twins rotation.
- Cole DeVries – There’s a theme here – DeVries throws strikes, doesn’t let the big moments get to him and has shown the ability to manage games. If given a full season, I could see DeVries becoming the player the Twins wanted Nick Blackburn to be – a back of the rotation guy who gets the ball every 5th day and delivers 6 solid innings of 2 to 3 run baseball.
My plan has the Twins grabbing two free agent pitchers off the discount rack. This strategy syncs well with what the Twins do (see: Jared Burton, Darin Mastroianni, Josh Willingham)
The Twins aren’t going to go crazy and chase down Jake Peavy or Zack Greinke and they don’t have the ‘win now’ foundation that will draw over Ryan Dempster or Edwin Jackson. While the team could probably persuade Jackson with a truck full of cash, that strategy doesn’t jive with what the Twins do – they are, and for the foreseeable future will always be, bargain hunters. Blanton and Villanueva are bargain pitchers who fit a definite need.
My plan leaves out Samuel Deduno, Scott Baker and PJ Walters. While I’m certainly pulling for Deduno to figure out his control issues and finally “stick” at the big league level, I’d wager the Twins don’t want to head into 2013 with such a large question mark in their rotation. He’ll likely get to start the season at AAA and if he can show that he has found his control he’ll be the first one to get the call if / when the Twins need a starter.
The rumblings around the Twins organization is that Scott Baker is unhappy with the way the team handled his injury – essentially telling him to pitch through the pain until it was discovered that he had a torn UCL. With the Twins likely looking to get Baker for cheap, I could see him jumping ship and taking another offer with another club. If the Twins were able to sign Baker, I think that would knock Joe Blanton off the Twins radar. That being said, I don’t see Baker on this staff next season.
Finally, PJ Walters is simply an unproven commodity at this point. Cole DeVries has shown more to the Twins and will likely get the nod ahead of Walters for the starting spot. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Walters get a long reliever spot – filling in alongside Duensing and Swarzak out of the ‘pen.
One thing to keep in mind is that the youngster Kyle Gibson could be ready for action in 2013 as well. Gibson spent most of 2012 recovering from Tommy John surgery but showed great promise in a few starts at the A level at the end of the season. He’s likely to start 2013 in AAA and, assuming he continues to look sharp, could be a factor in the Twins rotation as soon as July of 2013.
This rotation isn’t likely to excite the fans, but I think it’s the most realistic example of the approach the Twins will take. They’re not going to ignore their needs – they won’t be foolish enough to think they can shuffle the current staff and pass that off on the fans for another season. That being said, this team isn’t going to go chase big name free agents. Look at how they rebuilt the bullpen for 2012. Jared Burton, Casey Fien, Jeff Gray (OK that was a miss) but now that bullpen is solid and all they did was pick up under the radar arms.
Personally, I’d be excited if the Twins rolled out my forecasted rotation in 2013 – at the very least it’d be a rotation that would keep the team in games. With this offense, that’s really all the team needs.
No comments:
Post a Comment