Postseason Prognostication

Labor Day is over, the calendar reads September and the NFL is getting ready to kickoff another season of America’s favorite sport. By all accounts, fans should be switching away from the boys of summer and moving on to the greats of the gridiron.

Fans of the Mariners, Twins, Padres, Mets, Blue Jays, Marlins, Rockies, Cubs, Astros, Indians, and Royals can be forgiven if they jump ship on the MLB season and move their focus to the NFL.

However, true baseball fans no better than to ignore the MLB now, even if their team is long since buried in the cellar and is rebuilding for 2013. Even though I’m a Twins fan and this is a Twins focused blog – I’m pumped for the coming weeks and the MLB postseason. Despite the NFL kicking things off tonight, MLB is where the real excitement is.

As of 9/5/12, there are four divisions with leaders who are up by 5 games or less. Not to mention the new wild card system, which places two teams into the playoffs this season, has six teams within reach on the AL side and six on the NL side (although Philly and the Mets are ‘within reach’ they don’t realistically have a shot at the postseason).

This postseason run is going to be exciting. With only handful of games left to play (26 to 27 for most teams) let’s take a look at the division races and try to forecast a winner.

The AL East:

Current Standings:

Baltimore 76-59  

Remaining series: 4 vs. NYY, 6 vs. TB, 3 vs. OAK, 3 vs. SEA, 6 vs. BOS, 5 vs. TOR

New York 76-59 GB: 0

Remaining series: 4 vs BAL, 6 vs BOS, 4 vs TB, 3 vs OAK, 3 vs MIN, 7 vs TOR

Tampa Bay 75-61 GB 1.5

Remaining series: 3 vs TEX, 6 vs BAL, 4 vs NYY, 6 vs BOS, 3 vs TOR, 4 vs CWS,

The AL East is shaping up to be one of the more exciting races as we enter the final weeks of the season. Of the group, the Yankees have the easiest road, playing 16 games against teams with a losing record. Baltimore is close behind with 14 games against losing opponents. Poor Tamp Bay has a gauntlet of playoff teams on the schedule, with 17 games against division leaders on the docket.

Prediction: The upcoming 4 game spread between Baltimore and New York will go a long way in determining the division winners. If the O’s can take 3 of 4, they’ll pull away and win the division. If the Yankees manage to win the series 3-1 or even 4-0, they’re likely out of reach for the rest of the east. Tampa Bay is punished for simply having too hard of a schedule in comparison to the rest of the division. However, if the Rays can win their big series against the Yankees and O’s, they could still slip in and play sleeper. This one is going to be a fascinating finish.

Baltimore: 95-67

New York: 93-69

Tampa Bay: 91-71

AL Central

Current Standings:

Chicago: 73-62

Remaining series: 6 vs KC, 4 vs DET, 4 vs MIN, 3 vs LAA, 6 vs CLE, 4 vs TB

Detroit: 72-63 GB: 1

Remaining series: 3 vs LAA, 4 vs CWS, 4 vs CLE, 3 vs OAK, 6 vs MIN, 7 vs KC

Would someone please stand up and win this division? All season long, the White Sox and Tigers have danced with the division lead, but neither team has been good enough to reach out and simply take it. The Tigers’ offense should be good enough to carry this division easily, but their pitching has been poor. The White Sox offense has been playing above their expectations, but like Detroit, their pitching is suspect. The Tigers have the easiest road as 16 of their next games are against losing teams, 13 of those being against Minnesota and Kansas City. Meanwhile, the White Sox have 16 games against losing teams, but have a tougher Tampa Bay team to face at the end of the season.

Prediction: Unlike the east, where the head to head matchups will likely determine the division, I think the central is going to come down to the ‘other’ matchups. Both Chicago and Detroit get to feast on KC, Minnesota and Cleveland in the final games and each team has a matchup with the always dangerous Angles. The difference here is that Detroit finishes the season with the Royals while the White Sox get a scrappy Tampa team making their own playoff push. That last series of the season is the determining factor in this race.

Detroit: 93-69

Chicago: 92-70

AL West

Current Standings:

Texas: 80-55

Remaining series: 2 vs KC, 3 vs TB, 3 vs CLE, 6 vs SEA, 6 vs LAA, 7 vs OAK

Oakland: 76-59 GB: 4.0

Remaining series: 5 vs LAA, 6 vs SEA, 3 vs BAL, 3 vs DET, 3 vs NYY, 7 vs TEX

Los Angeles: 73-63 GB: 7.5

Remaining series: 5 vs OAK, 3 vs DET, 3 vs KC, 6 vs TEX, 3 vs CWS, 6 vs SEA

While the west is not nearly as tight as the other divisions, a quick look at the upcoming games shows you that things my change soon. The Rangers end the season battling Tampa Bay, Oakland and the Angels, making 16 of their remaining 27 games high pressure games. The A’s don’t have things any easier, facing Detroit, Baltimore and the Yankees down the stretch. 21 of their final 27 are against playoff teams, making their road the toughest to the post season. The Angels, meanwhile, are largely forgotten in terms of the playoff race. Their fade in August has made them afterthoughts in the AL West. IF (big if) the Angels can play to their potential, they have the best shot of sneaking in the race. With 6 games against Texas and 5 against Oakland, the 7.5 game lead can be eaten up quickly. A 3 game set with KC and 6 game series with Seattle makes their final schedule slightly easier than Oakland and Texas’ remaining slate.

Prediction: While the A’s have been a great story during the second half of the season, their final schedule is simply too daunting to have any hope of winning the division. Even if they finish these final games with a strong winning record their quality of competition is simply too steep in comparison to the Angels and Rangers. The Rangers are too good to lose this division, but don’t sleep on the Angels making things tighter than expected.

Texas: 98-64

LAA: 89-73

Oakland: 88-74

NL West

Current Standings:

San Francisco: 77-59

Remaining series: 7 vs ARZ, 6 vs LAD, 7 vs COL, 6 vs SD

Los Angeles Dodgers: 73-64 GB: 4.5

Remaining series: 4 vs SD, 6 vs SF, 2 vs ARZ, 4 vs STL, 3 vs WAS, 3 vs CIN, 3 vs COL

The Dodgers went all in with the acquisition of half the Red Sox payroll – err – roster. The race with the Giants has been a tight one all season, with each team showing their strengths from time to time. Both are balanced teams who could make a nice run into the playoffs, both have flaws – the Dodgers with pitching and the Giants with consistent offense. With only a 4.5 game difference, this division will come down to the wire.

Prediction: The final schedules will dictate how this division winds up. The Giants have a relatively easy slate, playing 20 of their next 26 games against teams with losing records. The Dodgers have a daunting schedule, facing the always tough Cardinals, NL East winning Nationals and NL Central winning Reds during that same span. The Giants’ schedule is soft, the Dodgers’ is grueling – that makes the final prediction relatively easy.

San Francisco: 96-66

Los Angeles: 88-74

The Wild Card Race:

AL

(Assuming the division leaders listed above)

New York Yankees 93-69

Chicago White Sox 92-70

Tamp Bay Rays 91-71

Los Angeles Angels 89-73

Oakland A’s 88-74

By my estimations, the Yankees will make the #1 wild card spot on the basis of a 93-69 record. The #2 spot goes to the White Sox, who narrowly beat out the Rays by one game to get into the postseason. (That 4 game slate between the Rays and White Sox is going to be HUGE for postseason placement).

NL

(Assuming the division winners below)

NL East: Washington

NL Central: Cincinnati

NL West: San Francisco

St. Louis 93-69

Atlanta 92-70

Pittsburgh 89-73

The Cardinals and Braves are in a dead heat for the wild card right now, but I believe the Cardinals pull ahead on their remaining schedule. As you can see by how I have them finishing, it’s essentially a toss-up for the top 2 wild card spots. The Pirates, despite facing a easier schedule down the stretch, are simply too far back to jump into the postseason.

So, by my prognostication, I have the 2012 MLB playoffs looking as follows:

#1 Texas 98-64

#2 Orioles 95-67

#3 Detroit 93-69

#4 New York Yankees 93-69

#5 Chicago White Sox 92-70

#1 Cincinnati 103-59

#2 Washington 101-61

#3 San Francisco 96-66

#4 St. Louis 93-69

#5 Atlanta 92-70

MLB Playoff predictions don’t mean a thing if you aren’t willing to actually predict – so, I’ll play out the playoffs like so:

In the AL:

NYY over CWS in wild card playoff

TEX over NYY in 4 games (3-1)

DET over BAL in 5 games (3-2)

TEX over DET in 7 games (4-3)

In the NL:

ATL over STL in wild card playoff

CIN over ATL in 3 games (3-0)

WAS over SF in 5 games (3-2)

WAS over CIN in 7 games (4-3)

World Series:

TEX over WAS in 7 games (4-3)

That’s my ‘bold’ prediction for the MLB playoffs. I’ll come back and revisit this prediction after the field is officially set as well.

It might be the start of the NFL season, but that doesn’t mean the excitement has left the MLB season. We’re getting closer to the final push and then entering what is sure to be an entertaining playoff race. Stay tuned baseball fans!