Twins Trade Span, Acquire Future Ace

How quickly things can change! One day after complaining that the Twins were relatively inactive this offseason they go and pull off one of the bigger moves so far this winter. The Twins traded veteran OF Denard Span for the #2 prospect in the Nationals’ system – Alex Meyer.

This trade initially favors the Nationals as they are getting an extremely talented OF under a reasonable contract for the next three years. Already a power in the NL East, the Nats now have a true leadoff hitter who will add great defense to their OF and can steal bases.

In the long run, it may be the Twins who win this trade, however. Meyer is projected to be a future ace. His fastball tops out at 97 to 98 MPH, he has a vicious slider and a very solid circle change. All of which he deploys to strike out batters at a high clip. Meyer is a power pitcher whose control has been improving with each level he’s been promoted. Meyer will likely start 2013 in AA and assuming he continues to tear through batters like he has been he’ll end 2013 in AAA with 2014 shaping up to be his Major League debut.

Meyer is exactly the player the Twins need in their system, a hard thrower with the potential to be an ace. GM Terry Ryan accurately said "You can’t get high upside guys like this when they’re in AAA and nearly Major League ready" – meaning if the Twins want a potential All Star ace, they’re going to have to be willing to sit on him for a year or two.

That means the 2013 season isn’t looking any better for the Twins, in fact, with the loss of Span, it’s a little worse. But, that does mean that 2014 and beyond is starting to take shape. More on that in a minute, but first, let’s look at how the trade of Span will likely affect the rest of the 2012 offseason.

Trades are likely done – There is a possibility that the Twins could still try to flip Josh Willingham to the Braves for a pitcher and a prospect, but the odds of that have decreased significantly with Span’s trade. Unfortunately, that likely means the Twins are out of the James Shields sweepstakes as the Rays were reportedly only in on a deal with the Twins if it included Span.


Free agents are up – This trade did nothing to fix the 2013 rotation. As we’ve said time and time again, the only pitcher worthy of a spot in 2013 is Scott Diamond. That means the team still has 4 spots to fill via free agency. Let’s assume that the Twins intend to give one spot to Cole DeVries, Samuel Deduno, Liam Hendriks or PJ Walters. Let’s also assume that Kyle Gibson earns a spot in the rotation. That leaves 2 holes to fill via free agency. With the back end of the rotation holding so many questions (Deduno, DeVries, Hendriks & Gibson are all uncertainties) they will likely have to focus on more "sure bet" free agents.

Speculating On The "Plan"

It’s only one trade, but the Twins likely tipped their hand as to their plans for 2013 and 2014. By trading Denard Span for a high upside pitching prospect that won’t be major league ready until 2014, the team has (unofficially) conceded making a push for the division in 2013. Now, they will sign free agents and attempt to at least be competitive, but any dreams fans had of the Twins making a huge run next season have essentially been stalled.

Instead, it’s looking like the Twins will follow this plan:

2013 Starting outfield

:

LF: Josh Willingham, CF: Ben Revere, RF: Chris Parmelee

Look for the Twins to keep much of their staring roster intact. By moving Span, they can put Revere in his natural position and shift Parmelee, who did not have a place to call home last season, to RF. This allows the Twins to keep Morneau at 1B… for now.

Stage 2

: I believe stage 2 of the Twins’ grand plan kicks in at or around the last week of July 2013. The team will likely be ‘out’ of contention (hovering around .500) at this time and other teams will once again be clamoring for power bats to help them reach the playoffs. This is the time for the Twins to strike. Justin Morneau, who will be in the last year of his contract, could be shipped to a contender for an AAA pitcher or two. This would allow Parmelee to move to his natural 1B after the first half of the season and would signal the promotion of either Aaron Hicks or Oswaldo Arcia.

If both Hicks and Arcia are tearing up AAA pitching by July, look for the Twins to shop their OTHER power bat in Josh Willinham, once again for more pitching prospects. This allows Arcia and Hicks to begin building Major League experience for the season that REALLY matters – 2014.

Stage 3

: The third and final stage of the Twins rebuilding plans take shape in 2014; by that time Kyle Gibson will be off any pitch limits, Alex Meyer will be Major League ready as will J.O. Berrios (the hard thrower the Twins drafted in 2012) and Alex Whimmers will be back from Tommy John Surgery and a candidate to slot into the rotation. Factor in the prospects picked up for Willingham and Morneau and the Twins suddenly have a respectable rotation. That’s not all – by 2014, power hitter Miguel Sano is likely to be Major League ready as would Eddie Rosario, the Twins future at 2B. Suddenly, this Twins lineup becomes young and dangerous. Let’s look:

C: Joe Mauer
1B: Chris Parmelee
2B: Eddie Rosario
SS: Pedro Florimon
3B: Miguel Sano
LF: Oswaldo Arcia
CF: Ben Revere
RF: Aaron Hicks
DH: Trevor Plouffe

Bench: Joe Benson, Brian Dozier, Chris Hermann, Darin Mastroianni

Rotation:

Alex Meyer
J.O. Berrios
Kyle Gibson
Scott Diamond
AAA Prospect / Liam Hendriks / Alex Whimmers

Suddenly, the anemic Twins turn into the dominant force in the Central Twins. Young, loaded with power, strike out pitchers and fast and power hitting position players this team would be set to contend for the foreseeable future.

It’s all theory and speculation at this point in time, but it’s the only thing Twins fans have to hold on to right now. 2013 may not be the season we’re all wanting, but 2014 and beyond are shaping up to be good years for the Twins.

Lukewarm Stove

Will someone light the ‘hot stove’ already? We’re weeks into the MLB second season and very little has happened to peak anyone’s interest. The Twins have been especially quiet so far, content to sign minor league free agents and players who could essentially be called "roster filler". With little ACTUAL news to discuss, we’ll turn our attention to the rumor mill this week and hope for some real stories to talk about next week.

Recent reports have the Twins front office meeting with Francisco Liriano’s agent some time next week during the winter meetings. The Twins are obviously exploring every avenue to rebuild their pitching staff, but you have to wonder about looking into Franky AGAIN. After last season’s collapse, many fans were happy to see Liriano leave. With the White Sox during the second half of the season, Liriano pitched almost as poorly as he had been with the Twins. (3-2, 5.40 ERA, 12 games, 56 innings, 34 ER, 58 SO with the White Sox vs 3-10, 5.31 ERA, 22 games, 100 innings, 59 ER, 109 SO with the Twins).

Liriano’s career ERA now sits at 4.40. While he continues to be a solid strikeout pitcher, he tends to catch too much of the plate and gets knocked around for a big inning a little bit too often. He’s worth a flier if you’re looking for a #5 starter with high upside, but the Twins have too many needs in their rotation for another "reclamation" project with Liriano.

　

The Twins have been linked as the front runners to sign free agent pitcher Brett Meyers. The 32 year old right hander was a mid season acquisition by the White Sox from the Astros. Meyers had been working out of the bullpen for Chicago and Houston over the past two seasons, but was a starter in 2010 and & 2011 for the Astros, racking up over 200 innings pitched in each season. Meyers is rumored to be interested in returning to a starting role, which would explain why the Twins are a front runner to sign him.

Meyers’ career ERA sits at 4.20, but his past few seasons have seen that number float in the mid 3’s. Meyers is also a strikeout pitcher, who has averaged between 160-180 strikeouts per season that he starts. Meyers could benefit from pitching ½ of his games at the spacious Target Field after pitching in the launch pad that was US Cellular & Minute Maid over the past three seasons.

Meyers would become what the Twins wanted Carl Pavano to be last season; an innings eating workhorse who could take the mound every fifth day, keep the game close and keep the bullpen fresh. He’s not a long term solution for the pitching problems the Twins have, but he could be a very suitable 2 to 3 year fill in.

　

The Twins are using this offseason to evaluate how they want to handle Kyle Gibson, who is coming off of Tommy John surgery in 2011. Gibson pitched in the Arizona Fall League this year, managing a respectable 3-2 record with a 5.40 ERA. Gibson’s last few starts in the Fall League were shaky, which boosted his ending ERA. Gibson’s raw stuff is impressive, however, with many scouts calling him a great "#2 starter on a championship team" which would instantly make him an ace for the Twins. Typically, pitchers coming back from Tommy John surgery have to be held to an innings limit to help prevent a return of any issues. The Twins are reportedly looking at how the Braves handed Kris Medlen’s return from TJ surgery in the 2012 season and using that as a model.

This report sort of tips the Twins hand as far as their rotation is concerned for next season. If they’re already looking at how to manage Gibson in the rotation that means they are likely considering Gibson as a player in said rotation for 2013. They might have to have a six man rotation in order to allow Gibson to skip a start here and there throughout the season, but it’s a good indicator of Gibson’s chances at the opening day roster that the Twins are looking at how they want to slot him in a rotation.

　

Denard Span has long been the player listed in trade talk for the Twins this offseason. Recent speculation has the Twins’ center fielder on the forefront of trade discussions once again – this time a trade partner has been found. The Atlanta Braves, who are desperate for CF help but do not want to get into the bidding wars for players like BJ Upton and Josh Hamilton, are the perfect fit for a player like Span. Span’s team friendly contract has long been his biggest plus in trade discussions and the Braves are loaded with young, major league ready pitching – something the Twins obviously covet.

Trade talks have centered around a Span for Tommy Hanson + prospects deal. Hanson has been one of the better pitchers in the Braves system of the past few years but is coming off of a down year in 2012. Hanson has typically shown good control, kept his ERA in the low to mid 3 range and has racked up solid strikeout numbers each season.

A Hanson for Span deal straight up would not suit the Twins, however, so the Braves are likely to have to kick in a prospect or two. Randall Delgado would fit the bill perfectly in this trade. He’s a prospect who is Major League ready and has shown great potential. The Twins would be able to place him in a starting role in 2013 and have a young arm in their rotation to build around for the future.

　

The San Francisco Giants are reportedly ready to cut loose bearded closer Brian Wilson. Wilson was due to make $6.85 million in 2013 but the Giants reportedly have no interest in signing their former closer to such a deal one year after Tommy John surgery. Wilson will reportedly be released on Friday.

The Twins would be wise to take a look at Wilson. They already have a closer established in Glen Perkins and a solid set-up man in Jared Burton, but if the past few championship teams have proven anything it’s that a team simply cannot have too many bullpen arms. Wilson could be a great compliment alongside Burton and Perkins and instantly turn a solid bullpen into a fearsome bullpen. At $5-$6 million Wilson would be a relatively affordable threat to stabilize the back end of the ‘pen.

So, let’s pretend the rumors all shake out like we just talked about. That would put the Twins rotation for 2013 like this:

Scott Diamond


Tommy Hanson


Randall Delgado


Brett Meyers


Kyle Gibson


Francisco Liriano / Liam Hendriks / Cole DeVries (On a ‘timeshare’ with Gibson)

Scott Diamond as an "ace" is not exactly a comforting thought, but the Twins are not likely to get an ace through the trade market and are unwilling to spend the money necessary to sign one on the free agent market. Essentially they would have built a rotation of #3 starters, which is certainly the Twins’ MO. All in all, that rotation would not be a bad one. With a potent offense like the Twins rolled out last season, the team should see their win totals increase significantly.

Crying Over Spilled Milk - The Marlins Superdeal & What Could Have Been

Well, things sure have changed in a week. After a relatively slow offseason, this week exploded with a couple of moves that have brought the MLB hot stove back to life.

Of course, the biggest news of the week was the super trade between Toronto and Miami.

The Marlins shipped Jose Reyes, Josh Johnson, Mark Buehrle, Emilio Bonifacio and John Buck to the Blue Jays for Yunel Escobar and a handful of prospects (6 in total).

First and foremost, I’ll say I side with the professional MLB writers in regards to this trade and the actions that Mr. Loria and the Marlins brass have taken. Do yourself a favor and read about Mr. Loria’s sketchy history with Montreal and the Expos and the (frequent) accusations that he was using baseball’s revenue sharing funds for personal gain (Pick an MLB writer and look at their blog / webpage – they’ve all covered this topic over the past few days). In short, his actions as an owner as despicable – he flat out lied to a city, used their tax dollars to build a new revenue generating machine for himself (the atrocious Marlins Park) and, in a bold fake out, traded away every big name player the team had one year later.

From a baseball standpoint, the deal does make a little (emphasis on little) sense for the Marlins. They finished dead last in an average division and never once looked like they were going to be competitive. Trading away some veteran talent for a haul of prospects is not unheard of – in fact, it could be deemed a savvy move on the part of Marlins, pending the results of these prospects.

For the Blue Jays, the trade makes all the sense in the world. They immediately fill their biggest needs (infield help, starting pitching) and while they admittedly did have to deal a decent chunk of their farm system away, they are getting tangible assets for potential (which is all prospects really are until they prove otherwise). The Blue Jays also get to dump the toxic Yunel Escobar, whose homophobic slur on his eye black this season was yet another chapter in the “bad decision” history Escobar has shown in his major league career.

Since this is a Twins focused blog, I have to pose the question, where were the Twins in all of this? According to Twins GM Terry Ryan, the team was “aware of the Marlins feelings” which is a fancy way of not really answering a question.

In all honesty, the Twins could have easily built a package around Miguel Sano, Joe Benson, Eddie Rosario, Liam Hendriks and Pedro Florimon / Brian Dozier / Eduardo Escobar (pick 1) that would have delivered the same value the Marlins were looking for. The Twins could have turned future potential into players that could help a team built around Mauer, Morneau, Willingham and Span (the established ‘vets’) compete right now.

Instead, the Blue Jays now have a solid middle infield with Reyes, Lawrie, Izturis, Hechavarria and Lind (that’s a top tier MI) and a rotation featuring Buehrle and Johnson (solid 1-2 punch).

Alas, this:

C: Joe Mauer

1B: Justin Morneau

2B: Jamey Carroll

SS: Jose Reyes

3B: Trevor Plouffe

LF: Josh Willingham

CF: Ben Revere

RF: Chris Parmelee

DH: Ryan Doumit

P: Josh Johnson

P: Mark Buehrle

P: Scott Diamond

P: James Shields (Theoretically traded for Denard Span)

P: Kyle Gibson

Bench:  Dozier, Bonafacio, Hermann, Mastroianni

Will only be a pipe dream of what “might have been”.

Other news worth looking at this week:

1) The Twins are reportedly in contact with all of the top free agent pitchers on the market. With only $26 million to allocate across 4 rotation spots, I find it unlikely that they will land the big boys, but it’s nice to know they’re trying.

2) The team is also seeking an alternative at 3B to “motivate” Trevor Plouffe. Obviously if they want Plouffe to be their everyday starter they aren’t looking for top tier 3B talent – but it’s worth following this story to see if anything develops.

3) Former Twins pitcher Scott Baker opted to sign a $5.5 million deal with the Cubs this week, ending his nine year tenure with the team that drafted him. Baker’s deal has $1.5 million in incentives, which is exactly what we all figured his contract would look like. What’s odd is that Baker, notorious for giving up home runs, chose to try to rebuild his value in Chicago’s Wrigley Field, known for giving up its fair share of home runs as well. Apparently the sticking point for Baker came to the option for a second year. The Twins (smartly) insisted on that, the Cubs decided they didn’t need to have that security.

While it’s a little surprising to see Baker leave, the Twins were never going to contend on the basis of signing Scott Baker alone. He was projected to be the #5 starter in a “timeshare” with Kyle Gibson. This does lower the options the Twins have, but it’s not a blow to their rebuilding plan. Terry Ryan was right to insist on a team option for a second year – the second year off of Tommy John surgery is usually the better year – why should the Twins build Baker’s value this season and not be able to reap the rewards next year?

The hot stove is heating up and the Twins, while silent so far, have been connected to some of the big fish. The team likes to play things close to the vest, so it’s not a shock that very little info has come forth about their plans so far this offseason. Here’s hoping the next 2 to 3 weeks have the some exciting news for Twins fans.

Offseason Update 2

We’re only a few days into the “hot stove” season for Major League Baseball, but the Minnesota Twins have been active in this short period of time. Today we’ll recap the minor moves the Twins have made over the past week along with a look at some of the new Twins related rumors that have popped up recently.

Moving Pieces:

The Twins removed Samuel Deduno from their 40 man roster last week, making him a free agent. The move was slightly surprising as Deduno has been thought to be a contender for a rotation spot heading into 2013.

Deduno wasn’t on the market long, however, as the Twins announced two days later that he had agreed to a minor league contract. The Twins also signed Esmerling Vasquez, who had been outrighted the week prior, to a minor league deal.

Deduno, despite his inconsistencies, was one of the better Twins pitchers last season and will likely have a chance to earn a starter spot in spring training this year. So far, all of the Twins stop gap starters have been signed to minor league deals that feature spring training invitations.

PJ Walters, Esmerling Vasquez and Samuel Deduno will all be given a chance to earn starting spots, but it’s clear that the Twins are not banking on any of them for their rotation in 2013. That’s reassuring from a fan’s point of view.

More Savvy Waiver Moves:

Last season, the Twins’ front office impressed by making significant improvements to the bullpen via the waiver claim process; players such as Jared Burton and Casey Fien were plucked from the waiver process and made significant contributions to the back of the rotation in 2012.

It appears the Twins may have struck again by claiming reliever Josh Roenick off waivers from the Rockies. Roenick, who posted an impressive 3.25 ERA over 63 appearances for the Rockies last season, was a bit of a surprise to even be available. His 54 K’s to 43 BB’s over 88 2/3 innings were solid enough that he should have been penciled into the Rockies’ ‘pen in 2013. Instead, the team outrighted him from the 40 man and exposed him to waivers and the Twins pounced.

Roenick adds more right handed depth to a Twins’ ‘pen that was already very respectable in 2012. With Roenick, the Twins now have Jared Burton, Casey Fien, Alex Burnett and Anthony Swarzak as right handed options and only Brian Duensing and Glen Perkins as lefties – look for a few left handed waiver claims / signings from the Twins over the coming weeks.

The point being, that list of names was the cream of the crop for Twins pitching last season and they all performed very well. Players such as Tyler Robertson, Pedro Hernandez and Deolis Guerra also have a chance to be added to that rotation, but the simple addition of Roenick has really boosted a spot that was already a relative strength. This pick up may prove huge for the 2013 Twins.

The Twins also claimed Tommy Fields, a 25 year old shortstop, from the Rockies. Fields is much less exciting and more likely to be “organizational filler” (Think: AAA depth) than any player of consequence at the Major League level. Fields has below average defense and range and a poor bat – even with the Twins’ glaring holes at SS and 2B, they have better organizational options available.

The last waiver move of note was a departure – Alexi Casilla was claimed by Baltimore, ending a long and frustrating tenure with the middle infielder. Casilla looked like a future star early in his career and showed flashes of brilliant defense and a clutch bat during portions of each season with the Twins. In the end, however, Casilla was simply an average defender with below average numbers. Given his projected $1.8 million arbitration number, this move was the only logical option the Twins had.

New Trade Rumors:

I mentioned a few weeks ago that James Shields of the Rays would likely be on the market as his payroll numbers would be climbing beyond the comfort zone for the Rays. As the weeks have progressed, rumors of Shields being shopped by the Rays have intensified and the Twins have been linked as one of the leading teams to acquire the Rays’ righty.

The problem lies in compensation. While the Twins do have what the Rays need (outfield depth) they likely won’t be will to chip in the other pieces that the Rays could acquire from other teams. Current projections have the Twins giving up Denard Span, Chris Parmelee and a minor league pitcher (Liam Hendriks / Pedro Hernandez) in order to acquire Shields.

I fear this would be a gross “overpay” from the Twins. Span is, admittedly, expendable given Ben Revere’s improving numbers and superior defense but I’d hesitate to include Chris Parmelee in any trade. The Twins need to keep youth and rising talent on their roster and Parmelee is youngster who looks ready to bloom into a star. With Justin Morneau in the last year of his deal and with his health always being a question mark, the Twins cannot afford to trade away young depth.

The obvious suggestion is that the Twins include Morneau, rather than Parmelee, in the Shields trade – but the numbers quickly pull that scenario apart. Morneau is set to make $14 million in 2013 (close to Shields $13 million figure) – any trade of Morneau to the Rays would have to see the Twins pick up nearly all of Morneau’s salary. Salary relief would be the only reason the Twins would have to move their slugging first baseman. No matter how you evaluate that trade, it simply doesn’t work.

The final option for the Twins is a bit aggressive, but it is one that I could see playing out. The Twins trade Denard Span, Chris Parmelee and a minor leaguer to the Rays for James Shields. The Twins then move Joe Mauer to first base full time, slot Ryan Doumit as the team’s full time catcher and sign a free agent slugger (Jim Thome, for example) to fill their DH need.

This trade truly undermines the Twins’ offensive depth and takes away youth (something they need) from the team. I hope this scenario never comes to fruition.

Scenario II:

Shields isn’t the only Rays’ pitcher on the market (reportedly). Recent stories have linked Jeremy Hellickson to some trade talks – opening an interesting, and more likely, scenario for the Twins.

Hellickson would take less to pry away from the Rays than Shields, meaning the Twins may be able to offer Denard Span straight up for the youngster. Hellickson would quickly move to the top of the rotation for the Twins and Span fill a great need for Tampa Bay.

These rumors are still just mumblings and not as far along as the Shields rumors – but if the Twins and Rays make a trade, this would be the move I’d prefer them to make.

Scenario III:

Of course, the free agent market is in play as well. With Grenkie and Sanchez likely to be priced out of the Twins market, I look for them to focus on some solid “other” options. Players like Shaun Marcum and the newly made free agent Dan Haren could very well be in play for a crafty team like Minnesota.

While the big spenders chase free agents 1 and 2, I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Twins pounce on the reliable Marcum and Haren, whose stock has fallen due to injury concerns (a risk the Twins would certainly be willing to take).

Newest Projections:

For today, I’m just going to project the starting rotation moves that I think (key word) the Twins will make.

Trades:

I like the Hellickson for Span trade that’s been rumored – I feel like if the Twins are serious about acquiring an ace it will be from a team like Tampa, who has pitching depth and needs the chips the Twins have to offer.

I think the Twins will also TRY to shop Justin Morneau to the Blue Jays for Kyle Drabek and Drew Hutchinson but the deal won’t get done.

Free Agent Moves:

The Twins go after and get Dan Haren for $11/$12 million per year and manage to snag Marcum for $5 to $7 million. They also get Joe Blanton for a respectable $4 million per year and resign Scott Baker to a incentive heavy $3 million per year deal.

Projected Rotation:

1)      Dan Haren

2)      Jeremy Hellickson

3)      Scott Diamond

4)      Scott Baker / Kyle Gibson (Both will be on innings limits / will split this spot)

5)      Joe Blanton

That’s why I love the offseason – it’s not insane to dream about a rotation like this for the Twins next year. As always, these projections and speculations are subject to change (and they likely will) and I’ll be here adding me 2 cents to the process each step along the way.

Only 144 days to opening day…not that I’m counting.