We’re only a few days into the “hot stove” season for Major League Baseball, but the Minnesota Twins have been active in this short period of time. Today we’ll recap the minor moves the Twins have made over the past week along with a look at some of the new Twins related rumors that have popped up recently.
Moving Pieces:
The Twins removed Samuel Deduno from their 40 man roster last week, making him a free agent. The move was slightly surprising as Deduno has been thought to be a contender for a rotation spot heading into 2013.
Deduno wasn’t on the market long, however, as the Twins announced two days later that he had agreed to a minor league contract. The Twins also signed Esmerling Vasquez, who had been outrighted the week prior, to a minor league deal.
Deduno, despite his inconsistencies, was one of the better Twins pitchers last season and will likely have a chance to earn a starter spot in spring training this year. So far, all of the Twins stop gap starters have been signed to minor league deals that feature spring training invitations.
PJ Walters, Esmerling Vasquez and Samuel Deduno will all be given a chance to earn starting spots, but it’s clear that the Twins are not banking on any of them for their rotation in 2013. That’s reassuring from a fan’s point of view.
More Savvy Waiver Moves:
Last season, the Twins’ front office impressed by making significant improvements to the bullpen via the waiver claim process; players such as Jared Burton and Casey Fien were plucked from the waiver process and made significant contributions to the back of the rotation in 2012.
It appears the Twins may have struck again by claiming reliever Josh Roenick off waivers from the Rockies . Roenick, who posted an impressive 3.25 ERA over 63 appearances for the Rockies last season, was a bit of a surprise to even be available. His 54 K’s to 43 BB’s over 88 2/3 innings were solid enough that he should have been penciled into the Rockies ’ ‘pen in 2013. Instead, the team outrighted him from the 40 man and exposed him to waivers and the Twins pounced.
Roenick adds more right handed depth to a Twins’ ‘pen that was already very respectable in 2012. With Roenick, the Twins now have Jared Burton, Casey Fien, Alex Burnett and Anthony Swarzak as right handed options and only Brian Duensing and Glen Perkins as lefties – look for a few left handed waiver claims / signings from the Twins over the coming weeks.
The point being, that list of names was the cream of the crop for Twins pitching last season and they all performed very well. Players such as Tyler Robertson, Pedro Hernandez and Deolis Guerra also have a chance to be added to that rotation, but the simple addition of Roenick has really boosted a spot that was already a relative strength. This pick up may prove huge for the 2013 Twins.
The Twins also claimed Tommy Fields, a 25 year old shortstop, from the Rockies . Fields is much less exciting and more likely to be “organizational filler” (Think: AAA depth) than any player of consequence at the Major League level. Fields has below average defense and range and a poor bat – even with the Twins’ glaring holes at SS and 2B, they have better organizational options available.
The last waiver move of note was a departure – Alexi Casilla was claimed by Baltimore
New Trade Rumors:
I mentioned a few weeks ago that James Shields of the Rays would likely be on the market as his payroll numbers would be climbing beyond the comfort zone for the Rays. As the weeks have progressed, rumors of Shields being shopped by the Rays have intensified and the Twins have been linked as one of the leading teams to acquire the Rays’ righty.
The problem lies in compensation. While the Twins do have what the Rays need (outfield depth) they likely won’t be will to chip in the other pieces that the Rays could acquire from other teams. Current projections have the Twins giving up Denard Span, Chris Parmelee and a minor league pitcher (Liam Hendriks / Pedro Hernandez) in order to acquire Shields.
I fear this would be a gross “overpay” from the Twins. Span is, admittedly, expendable given Ben Revere’s improving numbers and superior defense but I’d hesitate to include Chris Parmelee in any trade. The Twins need to keep youth and rising talent on their roster and Parmelee is youngster who looks ready to bloom into a star. With Justin Morneau in the last year of his deal and with his health always being a question mark, the Twins cannot afford to trade away young depth.
The obvious suggestion is that the Twins include Morneau, rather than Parmelee, in the Shields trade – but the numbers quickly pull that scenario apart. Morneau is set to make $14 million in 2013 (close to Shields $13 million figure) – any trade of Morneau to the Rays would have to see the Twins pick up nearly all of Morneau’s salary. Salary relief would be the only reason the Twins would have to move their slugging first baseman. No matter how you evaluate that trade, it simply doesn’t work.
The final option for the Twins is a bit aggressive, but it is one that I could see playing out. The Twins trade Denard Span, Chris Parmelee and a minor leaguer to the Rays for James Shields. The Twins then move Joe Mauer to first base full time, slot Ryan Doumit as the team’s full time catcher and sign a free agent slugger (Jim Thome, for example) to fill their DH need.
This trade truly undermines the Twins’ offensive depth and takes away youth (something they need) from the team. I hope this scenario never comes to fruition.
Scenario II:
Shields isn’t the only Rays’ pitcher on the market (reportedly). Recent stories have linked Jeremy Hellickson to some trade talks – opening an interesting, and more likely, scenario for the Twins.
Hellickson would take less to pry away from the Rays than Shields, meaning the Twins may be able to offer Denard Span straight up for the youngster. Hellickson would quickly move to the top of the rotation for the Twins and Span fill a great need for
These rumors are still just mumblings and not as far along as the Shields rumors – but if the Twins and Rays make a trade, this would be the move I’d prefer them to make.
Scenario III:
Of course, the free agent market is in play as well. With Grenkie and Sanchez likely to be priced out of the Twins market, I look for them to focus on some solid “other” options. Players like Shaun Marcum and the newly made free agent Dan Haren could very well be in play for a crafty team like Minnesota
While the big spenders chase free agents 1 and 2, I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Twins pounce on the reliable Marcum and Haren, whose stock has fallen due to injury concerns (a risk the Twins would certainly be willing to take).
Newest Projections:
For today, I’m just going to project the starting rotation moves that I think (key word) the Twins will make.
Trades:
I like the Hellickson for Span trade that’s been rumored – I feel like if the Twins are serious about acquiring an ace it will be from a team like Tampa
I think the Twins will also TRY to shop Justin Morneau to the Blue Jays for Kyle Drabek and Drew Hutchinson but the deal won’t get done.
Free Agent Moves:
The Twins go after and get Dan Haren for $11/$12 million per year and manage to snag Marcum for $5 to $7 million. They also get Joe Blanton for a respectable $4 million per year and resign Scott Baker to a incentive heavy $3 million per year deal.
Projected Rotation:
1) Dan Haren
2) Jeremy Hellickson
3) Scott Diamond
4) Scott Baker / Kyle Gibson (Both will be on innings limits / will split this spot)
5) Joe Blanton
That’s why I love the offseason – it’s not insane to dream about a rotation like this for the Twins next year. As always, these projections and speculations are subject to change (and they likely will) and I’ll be here adding me 2 cents to the process each step along the way.
Only 144 days to opening day…not that I’m counting.
No comments:
Post a Comment