Twins Trade Span, Acquire Future Ace

How quickly things can change! One day after complaining that the Twins were relatively inactive this offseason they go and pull off one of the bigger moves so far this winter. The Twins traded veteran OF Denard Span for the #2 prospect in the Nationals’ system – Alex Meyer.

This trade initially favors the Nationals as they are getting an extremely talented OF under a reasonable contract for the next three years. Already a power in the NL East, the Nats now have a true leadoff hitter who will add great defense to their OF and can steal bases.

In the long run, it may be the Twins who win this trade, however. Meyer is projected to be a future ace. His fastball tops out at 97 to 98 MPH, he has a vicious slider and a very solid circle change. All of which he deploys to strike out batters at a high clip. Meyer is a power pitcher whose control has been improving with each level he’s been promoted. Meyer will likely start 2013 in AA and assuming he continues to tear through batters like he has been he’ll end 2013 in AAA with 2014 shaping up to be his Major League debut.

Meyer is exactly the player the Twins need in their system, a hard thrower with the potential to be an ace. GM Terry Ryan accurately said "You can’t get high upside guys like this when they’re in AAA and nearly Major League ready" – meaning if the Twins want a potential All Star ace, they’re going to have to be willing to sit on him for a year or two.

That means the 2013 season isn’t looking any better for the Twins, in fact, with the loss of Span, it’s a little worse. But, that does mean that 2014 and beyond is starting to take shape. More on that in a minute, but first, let’s look at how the trade of Span will likely affect the rest of the 2012 offseason.

Trades are likely done – There is a possibility that the Twins could still try to flip Josh Willingham to the Braves for a pitcher and a prospect, but the odds of that have decreased significantly with Span’s trade. Unfortunately, that likely means the Twins are out of the James Shields sweepstakes as the Rays were reportedly only in on a deal with the Twins if it included Span.


Free agents are up – This trade did nothing to fix the 2013 rotation. As we’ve said time and time again, the only pitcher worthy of a spot in 2013 is Scott Diamond. That means the team still has 4 spots to fill via free agency. Let’s assume that the Twins intend to give one spot to Cole DeVries, Samuel Deduno, Liam Hendriks or PJ Walters. Let’s also assume that Kyle Gibson earns a spot in the rotation. That leaves 2 holes to fill via free agency. With the back end of the rotation holding so many questions (Deduno, DeVries, Hendriks & Gibson are all uncertainties) they will likely have to focus on more "sure bet" free agents.

Speculating On The "Plan"

It’s only one trade, but the Twins likely tipped their hand as to their plans for 2013 and 2014. By trading Denard Span for a high upside pitching prospect that won’t be major league ready until 2014, the team has (unofficially) conceded making a push for the division in 2013. Now, they will sign free agents and attempt to at least be competitive, but any dreams fans had of the Twins making a huge run next season have essentially been stalled.

Instead, it’s looking like the Twins will follow this plan:

2013 Starting outfield

:

LF: Josh Willingham, CF: Ben Revere, RF: Chris Parmelee

Look for the Twins to keep much of their staring roster intact. By moving Span, they can put Revere in his natural position and shift Parmelee, who did not have a place to call home last season, to RF. This allows the Twins to keep Morneau at 1B… for now.

Stage 2

: I believe stage 2 of the Twins’ grand plan kicks in at or around the last week of July 2013. The team will likely be ‘out’ of contention (hovering around .500) at this time and other teams will once again be clamoring for power bats to help them reach the playoffs. This is the time for the Twins to strike. Justin Morneau, who will be in the last year of his contract, could be shipped to a contender for an AAA pitcher or two. This would allow Parmelee to move to his natural 1B after the first half of the season and would signal the promotion of either Aaron Hicks or Oswaldo Arcia.

If both Hicks and Arcia are tearing up AAA pitching by July, look for the Twins to shop their OTHER power bat in Josh Willinham, once again for more pitching prospects. This allows Arcia and Hicks to begin building Major League experience for the season that REALLY matters – 2014.

Stage 3

: The third and final stage of the Twins rebuilding plans take shape in 2014; by that time Kyle Gibson will be off any pitch limits, Alex Meyer will be Major League ready as will J.O. Berrios (the hard thrower the Twins drafted in 2012) and Alex Whimmers will be back from Tommy John Surgery and a candidate to slot into the rotation. Factor in the prospects picked up for Willingham and Morneau and the Twins suddenly have a respectable rotation. That’s not all – by 2014, power hitter Miguel Sano is likely to be Major League ready as would Eddie Rosario, the Twins future at 2B. Suddenly, this Twins lineup becomes young and dangerous. Let’s look:

C: Joe Mauer
1B: Chris Parmelee
2B: Eddie Rosario
SS: Pedro Florimon
3B: Miguel Sano
LF: Oswaldo Arcia
CF: Ben Revere
RF: Aaron Hicks
DH: Trevor Plouffe

Bench: Joe Benson, Brian Dozier, Chris Hermann, Darin Mastroianni

Rotation:

Alex Meyer
J.O. Berrios
Kyle Gibson
Scott Diamond
AAA Prospect / Liam Hendriks / Alex Whimmers

Suddenly, the anemic Twins turn into the dominant force in the Central Twins. Young, loaded with power, strike out pitchers and fast and power hitting position players this team would be set to contend for the foreseeable future.

It’s all theory and speculation at this point in time, but it’s the only thing Twins fans have to hold on to right now. 2013 may not be the season we’re all wanting, but 2014 and beyond are shaping up to be good years for the Twins.