Rumor Recap

The 2013 Major League Baseball winter meetings are drawing to a close, and so far the Minnesota Twins have been relatively quiet, going without a signing or trade as of this morning. That doesn’t mean they’ve been inactive, however, actually the opposite is quite true.

For the first time I can remember, the Twins have been attached to a multitude of players, including big name free agent pitchers and even a few major position players. Even after handing out the two largest contracts in franchise history to Ricky Nolasco and Phil Hughes, it appears the Twins are still shopping and intend to spend a little more money this offseason. Who have they been connected to and what other rumors surround the team? Let’s recap:

Matt Garza:

Throughout the week, Matt Garza and the Twins have frequently been mentioned in the same sentence. Darren Wolfson of ESPN 1500 has reported all week that the Twins and Matt Garza’s agents have been in contact and that the Twins “Know his price” and that Garza would welcome a return to Minnesota.

Multiple reporters, including Jon Heyman of CBS Sports have shared that Garza could be looking at a 5 year contract in the $80M range. Earlier reports had Garza coming in at a much more reasonable 4 yr / $60M – which would explain the Twins’ interest. However, at 5 years and $80M (or more) I don’t see the Twins being the final team standing.

Bronson Arroyo / Mike Pelfrey

I’m going to combine Arroyo and Pelfrey because I believe they’re entirely dependent on each other. The signing of one effectively removes the other from consideration.

The Twins’ interest in Arroyo has been long documented this offseason with Minnesota being linked amongst the Mets, Reds, Giants and Pirates as interested suitors. Reports are that Arroyo is looking for a 3 year deal, with an average annual value (AAV) between $10M to $12M.

The market for Mike Pelfrey, however, has been much less exciting. In fact, as far as I can tell, the Twins have been the only team linked to the pursuit of Pelfrey so far this offseason. The Twins initially offered Pelfrey a 2 year, $10M deal, which he and agent Scott Boras reportedly shot down. Yesterday afternoon, it was reported (by LaVelle Neal III and others) that the Twins had increased their offer to 2 years, $12M.

Recently, the Pirates and Reds have been counted out of the Arroyo race and the Mets have distanced themselves from the 37 year old righty as well. The Twins are one of the last teams standing and I think they’re likely to sign him by the end of the week. If they don’t they have a contingency plan in Mike Pelfrey. I don’t imagine the Twins are going to let Mike Pelfrey determine their free agent pitching pursuits (I.E. he’ll only be signed when they’ve lost out on their other options). With the Twins’ interest in Arroyo being well documented and other suitors dropping out, I think it’s just a matter of “When” not “If” the Twins ink Arroyo to a contract.

Masahiro Tanaka

The Rakuten Golden Eagles ace is widely considered to be the best free agent pitcher available this offseason – there’s just the matter if he’s actually available or not to sort out. The Golden Eagles have debated all offseason about their willingness to post their star pitcher, largely deterred by the new international posting rules agree upon by MLB and the NPB. The rules, in short, set the posting fee for any international free agent at a $20M cap – which greatly hurts the potential windfall for international teams holding a hot commodity (prior to the new rules, Tanaka was expected to command a posting fee upwards of $50M). The benefit of these new rules is that any and all teams that post the required fee are then granted the ability to negotiate with the player. IN the past, only the highest bidder had the privilege. Now, simply by posting the fee, teams can get a shot at the market.

If/When the Golden Eagles decide to post Tanaka, the Twins have been listed among the (many) teams willing to post up the $20M to negotiate with the star pitcher. His final cost could approach $18M-$20M per season, and it’s hard to see the Twins giving up that much money for a unknown quantity, but the fact that the Twins have continuously been listed as potential suitors tells me we can never fully write them off.

Stephen Drew

The biggest surprise (so far) of these winter meetings has been the Twins connection to free agent shortstop Stephen Drew. The former Red Sox shortstop has battled through injuries over the past three seasons, but still has managed to put up respectable offensive numbers while player plus level defense. He was extended a qualifying offer by the Red Sox, so any team signing Drew would have to give up a draft pick (the Twins’ first round draft pick is in the top 10, and thereby protected, so signing Drew would cost them their second round pick).

Drew would be an immediate upgrade to the Twins offense and would provide similar defense to that of Pedro Florimon. His rumored price has been hard to target, but initial reports are hovering around $10M-$15M. The higher number would likely count the Twins out, but it’s possible that the draft pick cost tied to Drew could keep his market somewhat tempered and thereby allow the Twins to swoop in with a solid contract offer. There’s been little in the way of updates regarding Drew, but don’t count him out until his price starts to go up or he officially signs elsewhere.

Rule 5 Results:

The Twins entered Thursday’s Rule 5 draft with a full roster, so they were unable to participate, but they did have a stable of minor league players who were eligible to be drafted by other teams, including former first rounder Alex Wimmers and reliever AJ Achter.

The draft concluded in a scant 10 minutes, and the Twins were fortunate enough not to lose any players to other teams. The minor league portion of the draft followed shortly thereafter and the Twins were more active – selecting RHP Kevin Thomas from the Cardinals and LHP James Fuller from the Mets. They lost RHP John Velazquez (who had JUST signed with the team) to the Mets and RHP Tim Atherton to the Athletics.

Thomas and Fuller are hard throwing, strikeout relievers, but both are 27 and have yet to make their major league debuts – essentially, they’re good roster filler for Rochester (who should field a pretty good team with the likes of Miguel Sano, Eddie Rosario, Josmil Pinto and Byron Buxton possibly making appearances there this season). Velazquez was just signed from the independent league, so the Twins don’t have a history with him and Atherton was a 24 year old career minor leaguer who didn’t project to crack the big league roster. All in all, nothing too exciting from the minor league portion of the rule 5 draft.

Twins Go Black Friday Shopping

The Minnesota Twins took a page out of American Thanksgiving culture and gorged themselves over the holiday weekend – not on turkey and the trimmings, but on free agent pitching. The Twins gorging, however, is likely to make them better in the coming season (whereas, America’s gorging will likely not have the same result).

The weekend started Wednesday night when the news leaked that the Twins would be signing Ricky Nolasco to a 4 year, $49 million deal. The move easily surpassed the highest free agent contract ever offered by the Twins (3 years, $21 million to Josh Willingham in 2011) and immediately gave them their ace for 2014.

The Twins, apparently, weren’t done there. A few hours after the signing was announced, baseball media members began reporting that the Twins were now focused on free agent pitcher Phil Hughes, and that a deal could be coming “soon”.

Sure enough, Saturday night brought the announcement that the Twins had inked Phil Hughes to a 3 year, $24 million deal. Hughes’ contract ranks second all time in Twins free agent signings (obviously behind Nolasco) and shows that the team is taking a completely different approach to rebuilding than they have at any other time in their history.

Now, the same baseball scribes who predicted the impending Hughes deal have been reporting that the Twins are moving in fast on free agent catcher AJ Pierzynski. As of Monday morning, nothing has been signed, but I wouldn’t be shocked if AJ was back in Minnesota by the middle of this week. The Twins are also (reportedly) still pursuing Bronson Arroyo and have a contract offer out to Mike Pelfrey as well.

So, how have the Twins done so far? Pretty well, if you look at the advanced numbers.

In Nolasco, the Twins picked up a durable right hander who will be turning 31 in a couple of weeks. He features a repertoire of fastball (90 mph), slider, curveball and spilt finger (80 mph, which acts a lot like a change up). Nolasco’s numbers don’t scream “ace” and it would be foolish for fans to think of him as the Twins version of Justin Verlander or Clayton Kershaw. What his numbers do say, however, is consistency. For his career, Nolasco has averaged 7.4 K/9 while limiting BB/9 to 2.1. Nolasco has never posted an ERA below 4.00 over the past 4 seasons, but his FIP (fielding independent pitching, which removes a pitcher’s defense – for better or worse – to get to a more realistic ERA range) has been consistently in the 3.5 range, indicating his ERA may be inflated by some less than stellar defensive performances. 

Nolasco is a groundball pitcher (1.32 GB/FB) but he has been victimized letting runners on base. For his career, Nolasco has a LOB% (left on base) of 69%, which is below league average. If the Twins can fix whatever ails Nolasco when a runner gets on – they may be able to get his ERA to start matching his FIP.

The biggest part of this contract was the price, while some have squirmed at the $12M / year deal, when you compare what Nolasco is (a slightly above league average, dependable starter who will get you close to 200 innings each year) the $12M per year price is actually quite fair. Over the past two seasons, Ryan Dempster (who has been below average) and Ryan Vogelsong (league average) have inked similar deals. For the consistency he delivers, 4 years $49M is a great deal for the Twins.

If you don’t look at advance stats or splits, you may be a bit confused at the Twins signing Phil Hughes. After all, his 5.19 ERA and 4.54 FIP don’t really scream “improvement” from the Twins below average staff of 2013. 

Remember, however, that Phil Hughes had the misfortune of pitching in that launchpad called Yankee Stadium – for a fly ball pitcher (63.3% career FB rate) that can become ugly awfully quick. The ale becomes apparent when you compare Hughes’ home / road splits. At home, Hughes posted an ugly 6.32 ERA (78.1 IP) with 17 HRs allowed. On the road, however, Hughes’ ERA fell to a respectable 3.88 ERA (67.1 IP) with only 7 HRs allowed. Take him out of Yankee stadium and he becomes a league average pitcher.

Hughes will be 27 on opening day, and the Twins will have him for his 27, 28, 29 year old seasons – that’s widely regarded as the peak for most pitchers. At a modest $8 million / year, Hughes has the potential to be a steal for the Twins, should his numbers improve at Target Field like many expect.

After the holiday, the Twins have spent $73 million for two pitchers, neither of whom profiles to be an ace. Yet, these deals are still successes for the Twins simply for what they DID get. They got consistency, in Nolasco. They got 200 innings (or darn close to it), above average strikeout numbers and solid FIP. In Hughes, they acquired potential – all signs point to him being an average to slightly above average starter when removed from Yankee Stadium. In a neutral park, (hitter / pitcher balanced) Hughes should be league average. Target Field is a pitcher’s park – which bodes well for a bounce back for Hughes.

As I mentioned before, this spending spree was completely unforeseen by everyone. The Twins typically don’t spend big money of free agents, and they don’t fix their glaring issues through free agency. It’s apparent, however, that Terry Ryan has been given a mandate from the owners. Fix this mess – now. What’s brilliant is that (so far) Ryan has done this without mortgaging the future. Nolasco and Hughes’ contracts are manageable, and will not handicap the payroll in the coming seasons (when the young guys arrive) they’re tradable assets (if necessary) and both are young enough to be able to contribute to a contending team featuring Buxton, Sano, Rosario, Meyer and May in just a few years.

My message to the Twins so far this offseason – I love it, but don’t stop there.

So far, the Twins have made the moves the fans have been calling for. They’ve acquired pitching, and they’ve spent some of their large cap space to do so. My hope is that the team doesn’t just say “we’re done” and stop there. With Nolasco and Hughes, the Twins have a respectable starting staff. They can notch that staff up to “competitive” with one or two more signings.

I’m glad the team is still connected to Bronson Arroyo (and that his other suitors, the Giants and Mets, have been distancing themselves) Arroyo, while older (37 by opening day) would provide valuable innings (200 each of his last 5 years) and could be a veteran leader on the staff. The Twins are reportedly willing to offer 2 years, while Arroyo would like 3. I’d be willing to go 3 years for Arroyo, at $9 million per year (3, $27M) at $9M, you get an above average pitcher for below market price. If Arroyo is looking for more than $9M/year, I’d only go as high as 2 years, however. There’s common ground to be found there, hopefully the Twins can work it out.

The team also has an offer out of Mike Pelfrey for 2 years, $10 million. I’m a big fan of this offer for Pelfrey, who, one year removed from Tommy John surgery, should be able pitching more like his 2010, 2011 stats  - less like his 1^st half 2013 stats. Pelfrey is reportedly looking for a bit more money out of the deal – but if I’m Terry Ryan, I’m holding strong. 2 years, $10 million. Take it or leave it. I have a hunch that at the end of the day, Pelfrey will take it.

Let’s assume then that the Twins do get Arroyo (3 yrs, $27M) and Peflrey (2 yrs, $10M). That would mean they spent $120 in 4 pitchers this offseason, plus likely $10M/ yr for AJ Pierzynski – so a total expenditure of $130 million for a team that doesn’t spend money. That alone is impressive. But, take a look at the (projected) lineup heading into 2014 with these signings:

Starters:

1.       Ricky Nolasco

2.       Bronson Arroyo

3.       Phil Hughes

4.       Mike Pelfrey

5.       Kevin Correia

Bullpen:

LR: Anthony Swarzak
LR: Brian Duensing
MR: Caled Thielbar
MR: Ryan Pressly  / AJ Achter  / Edgar Ibarra / Kris Johnson
MR: Casey Fien
SU: Jared Burton
CL: Glen Perkins

In the fold: Scott Diamond, Vance Worley, Alex Meyer, Andrew Albers

C: AJ Pierzynski  / Josmil Pinto
1B: Joe Mauer
2B: Brian Dozier
SS: Pedro Florimon
3B: Trevor Plouffe
LF: Oswaldo Arcia
CF: Alex Presley / Aaron Hicks
RF: Chris Parmelee / Darin Mastroianni
DH: Josh Willingham / Ryan Doumit

Bench:  Eduardo Escobar, Mastroianni / Presley, Chris Herrmann,  Ryan Doumit

Note: players separated by (/) are position battles that will be determined in spring training. I believe Aaron Hicks starts 2014 in Rochester (AAA) but could earn the CF job with an improved spring showing.  I think Chris Parmelee needs a strong spring to keep his RF job, otherwise it goes to Mastroianni. Pinto and Pierzynski will split time at catcher, but I wouldn’t be stunned to see Pinto spend half the season in AAA to get more seasoning. That makes Chris Herrmann an ideal bench player, as he can cover corner outfield spots as well as catcher. Look for Parmelee to fill in for Mauer at 1B if Mauer needs a day off.

That’s a good but not great offense as constructed – but let’s assume we actually get seasons from some of those players that failed to deliver last year. Let’s say Dozier’s 2014 matches his 2^nd half of 2013. Let’s say Hicks delivers on all that potential in CF and Plouffe shows his late season batting average surge was not a fluke. Let’s say Parmelee’s eye at the plate returns to 2011 levels, and he stops striking out as often. Finally, assume a healthy Willingham puts up numbers closer to 2012 than 2013. Suddenly, that offense is above average – and with an already good bullpen and league average starting rotation….

I’m not predicting playoffs, merely saying that the changes the Twins have been making are welcome and should make them an interesting team in 2014. (Now, imagine what happens when that lineup is infused with Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton, DJ Hicks, Max Kepler, Eddie Rosario….)

Depth Chart Analysis: C & 1B

There’s a popular phrase in the NFL that goes something like this: “You’re only as good as your back-up quarterback”. The sentiment meaning that a great NFL team can be derailed by an injury to their most important position.

In baseball, this occurrence is less common as there are no “quarterbacks” in a baseball lineup. Any given night, any of the starting nine can put together an offensive (or defensive) performance solid enough to carry a team to victory.

Still, the original sentiment is interesting – you’re only as good as your back-up implies that if a team wants to contend, they need not only have the stars to get them to the World Series, but also the bench depth to help bridge gaps caused by injuries or ineffectiveness.

Of course, with this being a Minnesota Twins focused blog, I had to apply this theory to the Twins roster as it currently stands. We’ll look at the starters and the next players and line, and see if we can find any decencies that the Twins should look to address in the coming offseason. Let’s get started by looking at the “quarterback” of the diamond:

Catcher:

Starter

Joe Mauer 

2013 Stats: (113 Games) .324/.404/.376, .880 OPS, 11 HR, 47 RBI

We’re not even one player in to the depth chart and we’ve already got some controversy brewing. The big debate of the Twins offseason (so far) has been what to do with Joe Mauer. His late season concussion has some fans (myself included) worried about the longevity of Mauer’s career if he’s allowed to catch full time. Catchers take a lot of abuse behind the plate, and concussion symptoms are nothing you want hanging around a player (See: Koskie, Corey & Morneau, Justin).

The popular opinion is that Joe Mauer should shift to 1B fulltime, thus increasing his chances of being in the lineup on a consistent basis. The Twins have stuck to the “Joe wants to be, and will be a catcher” line so far when asked about their intentions with Mauer – but I think deep down they (and Joe) know that he’ll need to change positions sooner rather than later. I think Mauer gets between 70-80 games behind the plate this season, while spending a majority of the other games at 1B. That will allow the team to transition him to 1B fulltime in 2015.

So, for now when we list catchers on the Twins roster – Joe Mauer sits atop the list.

Next In Line

Josmil Pinto

2013 Stats (21 Games) .342/.398/.566, .963 OPS, 4 HR, 12 RBI

Josmil Pinto’s 2013 stat line is the very definition of “small sample size” and Twins fans need look no further than Chris Parmelee’s 2010 September stats to be reminded that late season call-up stats do not indicate future success. With all that being said, I’m still very excited to see what Josmil Pinto can do with a full season at the big league level.

Pinto had been a slow riser through the Twins system; he spent 2006-2011 in the low minors, never rising above A+ Fort Myers. In 2012, something clicked for Pinto and his bat began to heat up. He posted a combined split of .295/.362/.482 between Fort Myers and New Britain. In 2013, Pinto posted a split of .309/.400/.482 before getting called up to Minnesota and posting the respectable numbers listed above.

These past two seasons seem to indicate that Pinto’s figured something out at the plate, making him an offensively viable big leaguer. His defense has always been the question mark – with his slow footwork being listed as the largest detraction from his game.

Pinto is young enough to learn good defense from the Twins coaches, so that doesn’t concern me too much right now. I’m more interested to see how his bat will play in spring training. A strong performance there will likely earn him a spot on the Twins opening day roster – which means he’d likely split games with Mauer behind the plate (and maybe even DH on occasion).

The Twins have a deep farm system with some very impressive names on the verge of the big leagues. It’s always a wonderful surprise when a player that had been overlooked (like Pinto) bursts onto the scene and makes as much of an impact as some of the bigger names are expected to make. His emergence, if true, greatly helps the Twins going forward.

Also In Consideration:

Chris Herrmann

-          Coming into 2013, Herrmann looked to be the ‘next in line’ for the catcher job if Mauer were to go down for a long period of time. Defensively, he holds his own quite well but offensively he’s swung a fairly weak and inconsistent bat. Josmil Pinto’s strong September basically guaranteed that Herrmann will see more time in the outfield than behind the plate next season– but I think that versatility will help Herrmann stick around as a utility player. He can provide that coveted “emergency catcher” coverage that Ron Gardenhire enjoys while also being a solid defensive replacement in the outfield. He may not catch too many games, but if Mauer & Pinto go down next season (eek!) he’d be the next man up.

Ryan Doumit

-          Doumit makes this list only because he used to catch and I suppose, if the Twins were absolutely desperate (Mauer, Pinto AND Herrmann get in a car accident or lost in an airport) they could put him behind the plate. Defensively, Doumit is a nightmare behind the plate, frequently ranking at or near the bottom in defensive efficiency and pitch framing among all big league catchers. His bat is his only contribution, and while it’s solid, it’s not good enough to override his poor defense. Doumit is a DH now and should never make an appearance behind the plate again for the Twins.

Overall Grade: Even if Mauer isn’t listed at catcher anymore, the depth of Pinto / Herrmann is solid enough to earn the Twins a “B” ranking at catcher. With Mauer topping the depth chart, that ranking bumps up to an “A”.

1^st Base:

Starter

Good Question

With the trade of Justin Morneau, the Twins have opened up a spot in their infield that has yet to be claimed. Chris Colabello and Chris Parmelee split time manning 1B to finish out the season, but neither one hit well enough to be named the outright starter.

This spot could easily be Joe Mauer’s or, perhaps the Twins will sign a veteran slugger to man first in a “timeshare” situation with Mauer. The Twins could also shift Trevor Plouffe to 1B fulltime once Miguel Sano is promoted to the big leagues.

The problem is there simply isn’t much in the way of quality players that the Twins can state with authority “This is our first baseman heading into 2014”. They have contenders in Parmelee, Colabello, Plouffe and a veteran free agent  as well as players like Kennys Vargas and Travis Harrison in the minors who look to be first basemen in training – but there’s no one immediately here to help. Clearly this is a position the Twins will need to find a solution for in the offseason and during spring training.

Overall Grade: Simply because Mauer “might” be playing 1B in 2014, I’ll give the Twins a “D” here on the potential. Without Mauer, this is easily an “F”.

I’m going to break these depth evaluations down into parts so they’re easier to read. We’ll stop at C / 1B today. I’ll put up my overview of 2B / SS / 3B on Monday and the evaluations of LF / CF / RF on Tuesday.

Regular Season Awards

I’m not going to beat a dead horse (to borrow the overused turn of phrase) and recap just how terrible 2013 was for the Minnesota Twins. Instead, I’d like to point out the silver lining – even bad teams have good players. Even though the Twins themselves would like to forget 2013, there is a group of players whose effort is worth noting.

We’re only a few weeks away from the MLB MVP, CY Young and other awards being handed out – so let’s take that concept of ‘award season’ and turn it towards the players on the 2013 Twins. Specifically, let’s find the Twins’ season MVP, CY Young, Gold Glove and Silver Slugger.

Season MVP:

The candidates

Joe Mauer: .324/.404/.376, 144 OPS+, 11 HR, 47 RBI, 5.4 WAR

The obvious leading candidate for MVP is the Twins’ starting catcher. Mauer had a down year in RBI, largely due to the Twins’ inability to put any consistent hitters ahead of him in the lineup. Going beyond the RBI and homeruns and you’ll see that Mauer put together another outstanding season. His 144 OPS+ ranked him 11^th (in both leagues), showing that Mauer was still the on base machine he’s always been. His wRC of 83, shows that he didn’t add many runs to the team’s final ledger, due in large part to no one being on base ahead of him. These were hardly career lows for Mauer, but missing the last month of the season with a concussion and failing to crack 50 RBI does feel like a low point for the Twins’ best hitter.

Brian Dozier: .244/.312/.414, 100 OPS+, 18 HR, 66 RBI, 3.8 WAR

There was a short list of ‘players who needed to improve’ coming into 2013. Fans and experts frequently cited Trevor Plouffe, Chris Parmelee, Scott Diamond, Aaron Hicks and Pedro Florimon as players that needed to give a greater contribution for the Twins to win. Left off those lists was Brian Dozier, who many looked at as a lost cause, following an underwhelming 2012 rookie season. Dozier responded by becoming one of the best hitters in baseball after July. (He admittedly started very slow and likely only kept his roster spot due to his improved defense). Dozier lead the majors in extra base hits following July 31^st, and went on a bit of a power tear, hitting 13 home runs in the last two months of the season. This offensive improvement combined with his incredible defense at 2B (his .992 fielding percentage was well above the league average of .985) make him one of the best Twins players of 2013.

Glen Perkins: 2.30 ERA, 177 ERA+, 36 SV, 2.1 WAR

Glen Perkins transferred beautifully into the closer role in 2013, providing a near guarantee save in the back of the ‘pen. There was little to enjoy with the Twins in 2013, but Perkins was certainly on the short list of highlights. The only downside to Perkins’ MVP race is role – it’s hard to name a closer on a 96 loss team as the most valuable player. When you’re losing, you don’t need a closer – an argument that effectively saps Perkins’ chances before they get off the ground.

Winner: Brian Dozier

You could rightly name Joe Mauer as the MVP and receive little in the way of argument from anyone. I give the advantage to Dozier due to his defensive improvement at a position of huge need. The Twins have not had a reliable second baseman who could also hit in many years. Dozier fills a void in the Twins’ lineup and adds a valuable bat. His second half performance was strong enough to override the slow start, making him my 2013 Twins MVP.

2013 Twins CY Young

The Candidates

Absolutely none of the starters qualify for consideration for any Cy Young award. Scott Diamond, Mike Pelfrey , Kevin Correia, Vance Worley, Cole DeVries, Samuel Deduno, Liam Hendriks, Andrew Albers, Pedro Hernandez and Kyle Gibson each had underwhelming or downright horrid years. The bullpen had some stronger performances, especially from Jared Burton, Caleb Thielbar and Anthony Swarzak but they didn’t do quite enough to win the award either.

Winner: Glen Perkins

Perkins may not have done enough to make him the Twins’ MVP, but he was certainly the MVP of the entire pitching staff, making him the default Cy Young simply due to a complete lack of competition. If you think another Twins pitcher deserved the award, I’d love to hear it.

2013 Twins Gold Glove

The Candidates

Brian Dozier: .992 FLD%, 9 rDRS (defensive runs saved), 6 Errors

We’ve touched on Dozier’s improvements already, but its worth pointing out last season’s second baseman (Alexi Casilla) numbers: .930 FLD%, 15 rDRS, 9 Errors. Casilla made more flashy or out of the zone plays (as evidenced by his higher defensive runs saved) but he also missed move of the routine plays, evidenced by his lower fielding percentage. Casilla’s errors always seemed to come at the most inopportune times – typically allowing an inning to explode and putting the Twins in a deep hole. Dozier was much more consistent, something the Twins defense desperately needed.

Pedro Florimon: .973 FLD%, 12 rDRS, 18 Errors

Florimon may never develop into an offensive threat, but if he can keep making defensive improvements (2012 numbers: .965, 7 rDRS, 7 Errors) he won’t need to carry a threatening bat. Much like second base, the Twins have been searching for a short stop that can make the routine plays for many years. Florimon looks to be the solution to that problem. His .973 FLD% is exactly league average and his defensive runs saved is towards the top end of short stops. His defense was certainly a welcome addition to the Twins this season.

Aaron Hicks: 1.000 FLD%, 2 rDRS, 0 Errors

Hicks may have had a disastrous rookie campaign at the plate, but he was Major League ready in the field. The speedy centerfielder made some difficult plays look routine and even managed to rob a couple of home runs from Carlos Gomez and Adam Dunn. Without a full season under his belt, it’s hard to list Hicks as a favorite to win the Twins’ Gold Glove, but he performed well enough to earn an honorable mention

Winner: Brian Dozier

It came down to consistency versus difficulty. Dozier made the routine plays almost every time he had an opportunity, while Florimon made a few more difficult and out of range plays. When a team is as bad as the Twins were in 2013, you tend to value consistency a little more – thus, the award goes to Dozier.

2013 Twins Silver Slugger

The Candidates

Trevor Plouffe: .254/.309/.392, 14 HR, 52 RBI, 93 wRC+

Plouffe slumped through most of the season, but a late August and September hot streak (that saw him bat over .300 during the final 8 weeks) drew his numbers back up to respectable levels. It’s telling that a player with numbers as average as Plouffe’s were this season is the leading candidate for what essentially amounts to the best offensive player on the Twins. They’re not great, but given his competition (or lack there of) Plouffe moves to the top of the heap.

Brian Dozier: .244/.312/.414, 18 HR, 66 RBI, 101 wRC+

Like Plouffe, Dozier benefited from a hot streak to end the season. Dozier’s streak was longer (starting in July) and a bit more consistent, but the fact that he didn’t put a full season together really does hurt his case. That being said, with a slightly above average wRC+ and an ISO of .170, Dozier is easily one of the best bats in the 2013 Twins lineup.

Josmil Pinto: .342/.398/.566, 4 HR, 12 RBI, 169 wRC+

Yes, small sample size for Pinto makes it hard to distill any real truth from his September numbers (he was limited to just 83 at bats in the last month of the season). But you cannot argue that the rookie took advantage of the opportunity he was given. Pinto absolutely crushed the ball in September, hitting for average and boasting an impressive .224 ISO. It’s hard to put him at the top of the list simply because one month does not a season make – (See: Plouffe, Trevor 2012) but his performance cannot go unnoticed. Pinto should be back with the Twins full time in 2014, here’s hoping his September trends continue if and when he gets a chance.

Oswaldo Arcia: .251/.304/.430, 14 HR, 43 RBI, 103 wRC+

This award was Oswaldo Arcia’s to lose starting the year. The rookie burst on to the scene, hitting for decent average, displaying solid power and providing a threat to the Twins lineup that they desperately needed. Unfortunately, Arcia battled injuries and his own discipline for much of the season, tarnishing what was otherwise a very good rookie campaign. He struck out too many times (117) to cover his solid ISO (.173) and injuries sapped some at bats away from him towards the end of the season. Still, a very good outing worth noting from the rookie outfielder.

The Winner: Brian Dozier

The theme of these awards has been consistency, and seeing as Brian Dozier was nearly the most consistent Twins player this season (behind Joe Mauer) it’s not much of a surprise that he’s taken 3 of the 4 awards (had he thrown an inning of relief like Jamey Carroll did during the year, I may have considered him for Cy Young too…) Dozier lead the team in home runs and extra base hits while boasting a solid average and above average ISO and wRC+. Arcia’s bat may be a bit more dangerous and Plouffe may hit for better average, but Dozier’s blending of both aspects makes him the Twins’ Silver Slugger winner in my book.

Twins Remove 4 From 40 Man Roster

For teams that have been noncompetitive for most of the regular season, the offseason (also known as the ‘hot stove’ season, due to the frequency players change places) is the most exciting part of the year. It lets fans get an early look at how their team intends to address their shortcomings from the previous year.

Each offseason typically begins the same; teams evaluate their roster and cut loose the players they feel they can move on without. Teams will then scan the players cut from other teams, attempt to claim someone they like and then reevaluate their roster. The process repeats until the team feels they’ve churned out all of the old and have sufficiently replaced with new talent. Teams then add minor leaguers who they want to protect from the Rule 5 draft and then move on to the free agency period.

The Twins began the first phase of this process on Wednesday by announcing the removal of four players; Cole DeVries, Clete Thomas, Shairon Martis and Josh Roenicke, from the 40 man roster. Thomas, DeVries and Martis are eligible to be claimed by any team. If they are not claimed, they will be reassigned to the AAA Rochester roster. Due to his service time, Roenicke and decline the assignment and elect free agency. That would mean he was free to sign with any team of his choice.

There’s little in the way of surprises from this first batch. Cole DeVries was far too inconsistent to warrant a 40 man spot, and he’ll likely be given a minor league spring training invite and have a chance to work his way back on to the 40 man if he can perform more reliably next season (assuming, of course, he goes unclaimed).

Martis was simple filler, someone the Twins wanted to give an extended look to as the season drew to a close. He didn’t little to impress and the Twins are stocked full  of arms just like Martis. He’ll be good minor league depth if he clears waivers.

Clete Thomas was rendered useless by the acquisition of Alex Presley. Presley plays the same positions as Thomas, is younger and looks to be able to hit for better average than Thomas ever could. I’d look for Thomas to be claimed by a team needing a 4^th outfielder or one simply interested in a bit more outfield depth.

Roenicke caught some fans by surprise (I was not one of them) simply because at first glance his numbers seem decent. He finished the season with a 4.35 ERA (after keeping his ERA at or around 3.00-3.50 for most of the season) and his WHIP ballooned to 1.597 after a rough September. Roenicke was always an average to below average reliever – he didn’t particularly excel in any one area and once teams started to figure out his pitches, he lost what little value he provided to the ‘pen. With the plethora of bullpen arms in the Twins’ farm system, plus the usual fare of released players, the Twins will replace Roenicke (who I believe will opt for free agency) with ease.

These moves drop the Twins 40 man roster to 36 names. Of which, I think there are still 4 to 6 that will be let go (Eric Fryer, Doug Bernier, BJ Hermsen, Wilkin Ramirez and possibly Andrew Albers, Liam Hendriks). The Twins will also likely add some names from other teams’ discarded players (they’ve done well in this regard lately, adding Jared Burton, Darin Mastroianni and Clete Thomas through this method) so the 40 man will continue to take shape for the foreseeable future.

Recapping The Pre-Season Projections

Before the start of each season, I (like many others) like to make projections and predictions on how the coming MLB season will play out. I name division winners, list the teams that I think will be duds and take a closer look at the teams I think will make things interesting.

Following the season, I like to look back at those projections and see just how far off I really was. Let’s start by looking at my projections from April 2013.

Projected AL East:

Tampa Bay 95-67

Boston 90-72

New York 88-74

Baltimore 82-80

Toronto 75-87

Actual AL East:

Boston 97-65

Tampa Bay 92-71

Baltimore 85-77

New York 85-77

Toronto 74-88

Recap: Outside of flipping Boston and Tampa Bay around, I had the AL East pegged pretty well. I didn’t like Toronto’s overhaul and was one of the few that didn’t believe the revamped Jays would contend. I had Baltimore and New York finished close, with the edge going to the Yankees who I felt were a little more talented. (Instead, they tied). All in all, not too bad of a prediction.

Projected AL Central:

Detroit: 90-72

Kansas City 85-77

Minnesota 78-84

Cleveland 77-85

Chicago 70-92

Actual AL Central:

Detroit 93-69

Cleveland 92-70

Kansas City 86-76

Minnesota 66-96

Chicago 63-99

Recap: I predicted Detroit would win the division with a fairly comfortable margin over the Royals, who I had thought would play a bit more consistent baseball that what they actually played. I wrote off Cleveland – citing a pitching staff full of question marks and my worry that they wouldn’t be able to keep the runs low enough for their offense to win their games. (Oops) I felt the Twins would have a turnaround season and at least be in the conversation late in the season (bigger oops) and I predicted that the White Sox would regret letting all of their talent walk and would easily be the worst of the central teams – what I didn’t correctly account for was just HOW BAD the White Sox were going to be.

Projected AL West:

Texas 93-69

Oakland 92-70

Los Angeles 88-74

Seattle 65-97

Houston 60-102

Actual AL West:

Oakland 96-66

Texas 91-72

Los Angeles 78-84

Seattle 71-91

Houston 51-111

Recap: I felt that the Rangers and A’s would be neck and neck heading into the final weeks and that either were solid candidates to win the division. I hedged towards the Rangers because of their pitching staff and a slight offensive edge. While the race was close, it was the A’s that boasted a more consistent offense and a superior pitching staff. I felt the Angels would hang around the division for a while before fading late in the year. Instead, the faded nearly instantly and made a strong surge late to make their final numbers look better than they actually were. Seattle was an interesting team, but in a stacked division I didn’t see them making it to .500 and I was actually a bit too optimistic on how terrible the Astros actually were. Still, another division in which I wasn’t too far off from the actual results.

Projected NL East:

Washington 97-65

Atlanta 89-73

Philadelphia 80-82

New York 78-84

Miami 50-112

Actual NL East:

Atlanta 96-66

Washington 86-76

New York 74-88

Philadelphia 73-89

Miami 62-100

Recap: I had the right idea, but the wrong teams when it came to predicting the NL East. I thought it would be a two team race for most of the season, but the ultra talented Nationals would pull away in August and have an easy division win. Instead the Nationals played poorly all year while the Braves looked like a powerhouse. I had Philly being a bit better than they actual were, while the Mets were projected to be worse than their actual result. Miami surprised me by not being the worst team in baseball (finishing 12 wins better than I thought they would). Outside of picking the Marlins last, I had the division completely wrong. I did get the ‘winner pulls away by a wide margin’ right though. That counts for something…right?

Projected NL Central:

Cincinnati 95-67

St. Louis 93-69

Pittsburgh  89-73

Milwaukee 70-92

Chicago  65-97

Actual NL Central:

St. Louis 97-65

Pittsburgh 94-68

Cincinnati 90-72

Milwaukee 74-88

Chicago 66-96 

Recap: I thought the Reds could be the best team in baseball. Their offense and pitching staff, to me, was the complete package. While not being sold on the Cardinals, something told me they’d hang around the top of the division and could even win it. I also felt Pittsburgh would finish above .500, but given their division, would miss the playoffs. Milwaukee and Chicago were also-rans who would be out of contention early and finish distantly behind the cream of the crop. In the end, the Reds weren’t the best team in baseball, they weren’t even the best two teams in the NL Central! The Cardinals rolled all season like I thought the Reds would and the Pirates outplayed even my raised expectations. I was on the right track, but undersold just how good this division would be.

Projected NL West:

San Francisco 89-73

Arizona 88-74

Los Angeles 87-75

Colorado 80-82

San Diego 70-92

Actual NL West:

Los Angeles 92-70

Arizona 81-81

San Diego 76-66

San Francisco 76-66

Colorado 74-88

Recap: This was my biggest miss and I admitted prior to the season that I was largely hedging my bets on this division. I didn’t have a good feeling on any team, and could argue my way into the Dodgers, Giants, D-Backs and even the Rockies putting things together and winning the west. I thought this would be the most interesting division, simply because none of the teams were good enough to run away with it. Oops. Turns out, it was a close race…for second place. The Dodgers WERE good enough to run away with things and they did. San Francisco was underwhelming, the D-Backs couldn’t put enough good games together in a row and the Rockies were not as close to contending as I originally thought. Swing and a miss on the West.

Projected Playoffs:

AL Wild Card 1: Oakland

VS

Al Wild card 2: Boston

Winner Oakland

Divisional round

Oakland VS Tampa Bay

Winner Tampa Bay (3-1)

Detroit VS Texas

Winner Detroit (3-2)

Championship Round

Tampa Bay VS Detroit

Winner Tampa Bay (4-3)

NL Wild Card 1: St. Louis

VS

NL Wild Card 2: Atlanta

Winner: St. Louis

Divisional Round:

Washington VS St. Louis

Winner: St. Louis (3-2)

Cincinnati VS San Francisco

Winner: Cincinnati (3-0)

Championship Round:

Cincinnati VS St. Louis

Winner: Cincinnati (3-2)

World Series:

Tampa Bay VS Cincinnati

Winner: Tampa Bay (4-3)

Actual Playoffs:

AL Wild Card 1: Cleveland VS AL Wild Card 2: Tampa Bay

Cleveland / Tampa Bay VS Boston

Detroit VS Oakland

NL Wild Card 1: Pittsburgh VS NL Wild Card 2: Cincinnati

Pittsburgh / Cincinnati VS St. Louis

Dodgers VS Braves

Updated Projections:

Tampa Bay over Cleveland

Tampa Bay over Boston (3-2)

Oakland over Detroit (3-2)

Tampa Bay over Oakland (4-2)

Pittsburgh over Cincinnati

St. Louis over Pittsburgh (3-0)

Los Angeles over Atlanta (3-1)

Los Angeles over St. Louis  (4-3)

World Series:

Tampa Bay over Los Angeles (4-3)

I’m sticking with the Rays as my world series favorite. They’ve got quite the hill to climb, but I think they have the talent to get it done. On the NL side, I’ve abandoned by position on the Reds, simply because it’s so clear that the Dodgers are truly the best team in the NL. I think they’ll have all they can handle in the Cardinals, but they will get past them in 7 games. I look for a Dodgers / Rays World Series to be quite the back and forth affair – with the Rays holding on and winning it all.

Why Ron Gardenhire's Extension Makes Sense

The Minnesota Twins made waves yesterday afternoon with the announcement of Manager Ron Gardenhire’s 2 year contract extension. Gardenhire’s entire coaching staff was extended for one season as well, effectively telling fans that the owners and front office are happy standing pat with the coaches the Twins have.

The Twitter world and Twins’ blogosphere exploded into a fit of debate and chaos. Fans hated it, fans loved it. There were two distinct sides of the aisle, and both had as much passion and vitriol as their opponent.

At the end of the day, it doesn’t really matter what the fans think. All that matters is that the players stand behind their manager (following the final game of the season, many players, including Joe Mauer, voiced their support for their long time manager) and that the front office believes he’s capable of turning things around.

The fact that Gardenhire earned a two year deal is hardly a surprise as the front office likely wanted to avoid another lame duck season for Gardenhire and all of the questions and speculations that follow such an event. The Twins are notoriously loyal to their employees, and the front office showed that loyalty by giving Gardenhire the rope in which to pull himself out of the muck or hang himself.

I’ve always leaned on the ‘protect Gardy’ side of the coin, as I feel it wasn’t his fault that he’s had to manage with a roster composed of AAA / AAAA caliber players and a pitching staff full of problem arms. I’d like to see any manager that could take the meager roster the Twins had thrown out there over the past two seasons and do much more than Gardenhire did.

I’d also argue that Gardenhire’s extension shows the Twins won’t be departing from their current rebuilding strategy. In fact, I have a hunch this season they’re going to embrace it even more. Coming into the 1985 season, the Twins jettisoned all of their veteran talent and let youngsters like Kent Hrbek and  Gary Gaetti play. The payoff came two years later when a young but experienced Twins team took the World Series crown.

This strategy appeared again in the 2000 season. A team on the verge of being contracted decided to simply play their rookies and let them grow. The result was a youthful surge that lead to a decade long stay atop the AL Central.

Ron Gardenhire was at the helm during that first youth movement (in 2000), and I think the Twins expect him to be the best man for the job when the undergo such a move again this season.

General Manager Terry Ryan’s comments during the season about no player being safe and the team needing to do evaluations of all their talent (at all levels) was very telling, in my opinion. I think his comments mark the start of the Twins embracing another youth movement. I would hardly be surprised to see Josh Willingham and Ryan Doumit traded during the offseason. Players like Chris Parmelee, Trevor Plouffe, Darin Mastroianni and Chris Colabello should hardly feel comfortable either, as they could easily be used as trade fodder to add depth to the team.

Players like Clete Thomas, Wilkin Ramirez, Eric Fryer, Cole DeVries and Liam Hendriks should keep a bag packed as I think the Twins will be cleaning them off their 40 man roster.

Much of the filler will be gone, including players who had seen a regular role with the team. In their place, I believe the Twins will embrace their youth in the minors and call up Eddie Rosario, Miguel Sano, Alex Meyer, Trevor May and maybe even Byron Buxton by midseason. It’ll be a rough season – and there will need to be a lot of coaching and learning on the fly – which is why the Twins were keen on keeping Gardenhire on the job.

Gardenhire has been part of a youth movement before and the Twins feel he and his staff do well with teaching players the fundamentals of the game. I think his extension is a sign. Not that the Twins are afraid to change or are complacent with losing. After all, I think if the team though they could win with this roster, Gardy would be on the curb and a new manager who could get it done with this group would be introduced. Instead, I think Gardy’s extension shows the Twins are about to undergo a massive shakeup, and they want their longtime coach at the helm when it happens.

September's Call-Ups Make For Interesting Competitions

Baseball’s regular season has entered its final month, with all but a few teams now resigned to non-contention and beginning their look towards next year. That doesn’t mean September baseball with a bad team isn’t worth watching, however. In fact, September is typically one of my favorite months of the baseball season as we get to see younger players get their first taste of the big leagues. Some players break on to the scene, some fizzle out, but either way it makes for interesting baseball and a great narrative to follow at the season’s end.

The Twins have a few position battles to watch during the final weeks, many of which will carry into spring training 2014. Players that perform well during this limited test will have an upper hand when it comes to next season’s ‘auditions’ so these opportunities shouldn’t be taken lightly.

Some of these battles are still projections as the Rochester Red Wings (the AAA affiliate of the Twins) have made the playoffs and many of their players will not be available for a call up until sometime next week. With that caveat out of the way, let’s look at some of the pending position battles to watch in September.

Alex Presley vs. Darin Mastroianni vs. Clete Thomas vs. Aaron Hicks

What’s at stake: The starting CF job and the 4^th OF role

With Aaron Hicks’ flameout this season, the starting CF position is wide open for whomever decides to claim it in 2014. I don’t think Hicks will see a Twins uniform again this season (Instead, I feel the Twins will do the same thing they did with Brian Dozier, let him end his season and AAA to show him that he’ll have to earn his spot on the roster. It worked wonders with Dozier, hopefully it does the same thing with Hicks).

If not for an early season injury, Darin Masrtoianni would have likely won the starting CF job to begin 2013, but he now finds himself in the middle of the pack once again. If he can hit for average and play solid defense with his speed, he’s likely the front runner to win the job at the start of 2014 – but he’s far from locked in to the position.

The 4^th outfielder spot will be a toss-up between Clete Thomas and Alex Presley. Both are no longer prospects (Thomas is 29, Presley 28) but both have some value in their ability to get on base, play solid defense and in their speed on the base paths. This is a true toss-up battle, the better hitter will claim their spot while the loser will be relegated to AAA to start the season (or outright released, as Clete Thomas would likely be due to being out of minor league options). The crazy part is either player could also elevate themselves to the point of being the starter in CF next season if Hicks doesn’t show signs of improvement.

Prediction: Presley outplays Thomas and Mastroianni and earns the lead for the CF job. Mastroianni serves as the 4^th OF while Aaron Hicks spends the first portion of 2014 in AAA. Clete Thomas is passed through waivers and claimed.

Chris Colabello vs. Chris Parmelee vs. Joe Mauer

What’s at stake: Starting 1B

Justin Morneau’s trade to Pittsburgh started the movement of many other pieces within the Twins organization. Chris Parmelee, who was long thought to be the defacto replacement for Morneau has struggled to hit at all this season, while Chris Colabello forced the Twins hand by playing out of his mind in Rochester (earning the league ROY and MVP). Parmelee is younger and could still be argued to be a prospect, but his struggles at the plate have got to be a concern. Colabello will strike out, and he’s certainly not a prospect (he’ll be 30 next season) but his power at the plate puts some much needed pop into the Twins’ lineup.

Then, there’s Joe Mauer, who could see a lot more time at 1B next season to reduce his exposure to foul tips and the potential concussions that follow. The team is better with Mauer in the lineup, that’s not even debatable – but if Mauer (or the team) decide the best way to keep him in the lineup is to have him play 1B, then the Job is Mauer’s by default.

Prediction: Mauer has maintained that he wants to catch and I think the team values him behind the plate, but not to the point of risking his health. Mauer will catch 60-70 games while manning 1B for the rest. Chris Colabello tops Chris Parmelee in the 1B competition and earns the 1B/DH job while Parmelee is given a chance to find his swing in AAA.

Josmil Pinto vs. Chris Herrmann vs. Ryan Doumit

We’ve established that Joe Mauer will begin to transition from catching in 2014, meaning 90-100 games behind the plate are up for grabs. Josmil Pinto and Chris Herrmann are young prospects who both catch solid games (neither has outstanding defense, but they play it well enough to avoid being a liability) and carry average to below average bats (Pinto has been hitting very well, Herrmann doesn’t have the same potency but isn’t an automatic out like Drew Butera was). Meanwhile, Ryan Doumit may be one of the worst defensive catchers in the big leagues. His bat is always dangerous, however, and that’s what keeps him in the race.

Prediction: Josmil Pinto earns the ‘co-starter’ role. His bat can play at the big league level and his power will be an added bonus in a lineup that could use some potency. Chris Herrmann makes the team as well due to his versatility. He can play the back-up catcher as well as a fill in OF when needed. Ryan Doumit is the odd man out in this equation, and with his other roles (DH / RF) being occupied (Colabello / Pinto will fill the DH role while Arcia / Herrmann / Mastroianni will fill in at RF) he’ll have nowhere to call home. That’s why I think the Twins will flip Doumit to an AL team looking for a DH / emergency catcher in 2014. The return won’t be high, but if the Twins can turn Doumit into a bullpen arm or a high upside ‘A ball’ starter, that would be a success.

Liam Hendriks vs. Scott Diamond vs. Andrew Albers vs. Samuel Deduno vs. Kyle Gibson

What’s at stake: The 5^th starter position

The Twins’ starting rotation is still a disaster, which is the biggest reason they are once again looking 90 losses square in the face. Of the existing group of starters, only Kevin Correia has earned a spot in the rotation for next season (thanks in large part to his 2 year contract). The other four positions are wide open.

I have a few assumptions regarding the rotation coming into next season. First, the Twins will re-sign Mike Pelfrey to a 1 year deal with a mutual option. Pelfrey has pitched well over his last few starts and will be 100% healthy coming into 2014. I think he’s benefited from playing in pitcher friendly Target Field and has enjoyed his time with the Twins to the point that he’ll gladly return to the team.

Second, the Twins sign international free agent Masahiro Tanaka from Japan. The Twins are reportedly very interested in the young right hander. Tanaka has posted three straight seasons with sub 2.00 ERA, boasts a great fastball that stays between 90-96 MPH while featuring a great splitter and devastating slider. He’s also working on a curveball, but that doesn’t profile as high as his other pitches.

With a great deal of cap space available and a large need for a staff ace, the Twins are in great position to make an aggressive bid for Tanaka. It may be a misplaced hunch, but I get the feeling they’re going big after the righty and they’ll land him this winter.

Finally, I think the Twins and Phil Hughes are a match that’s too great to miss. Hughes has struggled in New York, thanks in large part to his tendency to be a fly ball pitcher and New Yankee Stadium’s tendency to turn routine pop ups into home runs. Hughes has been quoted as saying he’ll take a bullpen job if that’s all that’s available, and to a large number of big league clubs, that’s what he’d be. Not to the Twins. Spacious Target Field will play well for a pitcher like Hughes, who could slot right into the top of the rotation for the Twins and could revive a fading career. Hughes is young enough that the Twins could count on him being a part of their future contending teams – which is always a bonus.

So, with a rotation looking like this:

1.       Tanaka

2.       Hughes

3.       Pelfrey

4.       Correia

5.       ???

Coming into 2014, the role of the 5^th starter is wide open. Deduno made a strong bid for the spot for the middle portion of 2013, but shoulder soreness has shut him down. His last few outings were less than stellar as well, likely hurting his spot at the head of the pack. Scott Diamond has pitched well in Rochester, but will likely need to prove he can get big league hitters out in September to earn a spot in 2014. Liam Hendriks has looked good in two starts in August (and very bad in another). If he can consistently be the ‘good’ pitcher, he likely has the head start for the #5 job.

Then there’s the enigma that’s Kyle Gibson. Gibson has been rated as the team’s top pitching prospect for the past few seasons, but his rather poor 2013 has shown he may need some more time in AAA. Whether his struggles stemmed from Tommy John recovery or just a lack of good enough stuff, we’ve yet to find out. We won’t see anything more from Gibson in 2013, but we cannot discount his chance at the #5 spot in 2014.

Prediction: This one is a tough call, because I can fully see Liam Hendriks or Kyle Gibson winning the spot. I think Scott Diamond is better suited to a long reliever role and Deduno’s inconsistencies are enough to lose him the 5^th spot (he may be a candidate to trade in the offseason). Meanwhile, Andrew Albers is proving he’s not a big league pitcher by being obliterated in his last three starts.

Finally, remember that this ‘battle’ only breaks down players we’ll see in September (mainly Diamond and Hendriks) but that others like Alex Meyer and Alex Wimmers could step up and steal that final spot as well.

The season may be nearly over, but there’s still much to watch when it comes to Twins baseball. I’ll be using these last few weeks to get a good luck at the younger guys on the roster and perhaps see an early preview of the 2014 Twins roster. Keep an eye on the performers at the end of the season, a strong start could be the launching point of their careers. Either way, it makes for entertaining baseball!

Fixing The Twins Starting Rotation

Breaking news: the Minnesota Twins’ starting pitching stinks. Okay, this three year issue likely isn’t breaking news anymore, but the point remains that the team has very little in the way of elite talent toeing the rubber this season. With their less than consistent offense of the past two seasons, poor starting pitching has been the final nail in the coffin, dooming the team to consecutive 90 loss seasons (pending a massive change in fortune, the team is heading towards their third straight 90 loss season).

With a payroll clocking in between $40 and $50 million next season (pending arbitration and player options) the Twins are certainly going to have room to make some moves to improve the rotation. The problem is, the free agent pitching market is extremely thin, with the elite pitchers having already been signed to extensions or holding team options for 2014.

That doesn’t change the fact that the only starter essentially guaranteed a spot in the rotation for 2014 is Kevin Correia, and that’s due in large part to his two year, $10 million contract, not his ability to get batters out.

The team has internal options, including Vance Worley, Scott Diamond, Liam Hendriks, Andrew Albers, Samuel Deduno and Kyle Gibson, but they would be foolish to try to roll out a combination of those players (again) and expect different results.

The team needs help, and there just isn’t much to be found.

Or, so we think.

I’m arguing that there IS help out there, it’s just not as obvious, nor as glamorous as we’d all like it to be. My plan includes taking some risks, but with the team unlikely to contend in 2014 (I expect they’ll improve, especially if they let the young guys take over in July) there is really no harm in low risk, high reward signings.

So, how should the Twins rebuild their rotation? Here’s how I would start:

1. Sign Shaun Marcum to a 1 year, $3 Million deal

Marcum was a popular target for Twins fans and bloggers last season as his 3.88 career ERA and 1.234 career WHIP projected well for the pitcher friendly target field. Marcum was coming off an injury shortned season and was available for a low price. The Mets ended up acquiring Marcum for next to nothing ($4 million) and while it didn’t pan out (Marcum’s injury wasn’t entirely healed and he was shut down only a few starts into his season) they took a worthwhile risk on the righty.

The Twins could offer Marcum an incentive heavy contract with a low base salary in the $3 to $3.5 million range. Yes, Marcum’s injury history is a concern, but if Marcum can come back healthy, he has the potential to be a very solid #2 or #3 starter. The Twins took a similar risk on Jared Burton, whose injury shortened seasons with Cincinnati allowed him to be signed to a minor league deal – now look what the Twins have – a dominant 8^th inning righty for pennies on the dollar. A healthy Marcum is a huge upgrade, the Twins need to make that gamble.

1. Sign Johan Santana to a “Rich Harden” deal

Yes, THAT Johan Santana. The former Twins ace is in the last year of his 6 year deal with the Mets and will not be retained by the team, making him a free agent for the first time in his career. He has had two injury plagued seasons with New York, resulting in a poor 2012 and a non existent 2013.

Santana cannot expected to be the ace he was while he was in Minnesota, he’s clocked over 2,000 innings on his arm, after all; but he is a left hander with a great change up – players like that always have value if they’re healthy. The Twins should pursue Johan on a low $2.5-$3 Million contract with heavy incentive clause potentially boosting the value to $7-$9 million per year. Add in a opt out date, just like Rich Harden had – if Johan isn’t in the majors by July X, he can become a free agent. At worst, the Twins sink a few million dollars into a reclamation project that doesn’t pan out. At best, they find a crafty lefthander to fill out the back of their rotation and renew fan interest.

1. Sign Broson Arroyo

Arroyo isn’t going to be the face of the next contending Twins staff, at 36 years old he’s certainly on the downhill side of his career, but the Twins can (and should) outbid nearly any other team for his services simply because of the stability he would provide. Arroyo has thrown over 200 innings all but one of the last nine seasons (he threw 199 in 2011) and has a career WHIP of 1.240 and a career SO/9 of 5.9. He eats innings, strikes out batters and doesn’t give up a ton of hits. That’s exactly what the Twins need in their rotation.

They’ll likely have to pay over market value (estimated at $8 million per year) so assume a $20 million, 2 year contract from Minnesota is what it will take to get it done. Arroyo could simply decide to resign with the Reds or another contender for less money, so the odds of him joining the Twins are slim, but the team needs to make an aggressive run at a top of the rotation guy and Arroyo is the option that makes the most sense.

1. Sign Phil Hughes

This one is probably the most likely (and possibly most important) move to be made, but I think it’s such a no-brainer that I didn’t feel the need to put it any higher on the list. The 28 year old right hander has been a Yankee starter since 2010, but he’s never achieved the success the Yankees had hoped for. Hughes is a fly ball pitcher who is greatly hurt by pitching in the bandstand that is Yankee Stadium.

He’s reportedly open to the suggestion of returning to the bullpen, but the Twins would have no interest in that – they need starters and that’s where Hughes would be. Factor in the pitcher friendly target field (including the deep, tall RF wall) and you can almost guarantee Hughes’ numbers will improve. He wants to start, he needs a pitcher friendly park and he’ll want a decent contract – the Twins can meet all three requirements. This deal needs to be done – it just makes too much sense.

1. Take a flier on Josh Johnson or Scott Baker

Josh Johnson is injury prone and looks nothing like the ace he was in 2011. He won’t command a large contract, but he’ll still get some respectable offers simply based on his previous seasons of work. The Twins won’t be able to sign him to a “Rich Harden” deal, but they certainly can be players at $8-$10 million per year (perhaps a 2 year deal) which makes him a bit higher risk, but the upside of a number one ‘ace’ of the staff could be worth the gamble.

Alternatively, the Twins can return to Scott Baker, who opted to leave the Twin cities for the windy city last season on a 1 year, $5.5 million contract. His surgically repaired elbow never healed and he was unable to pitch for the Cubs in 2013. After a full year of recovery, the Twins could swoop back in a reap the rewards of a healthy Baker. He doesn’t have the upside of Josh Johnson, but he could be obtained for closer to $3-$4 million instead of the $9-$10 Johnson will likely command.

To recap, while I would try to make all of the above moves, I understand that they won’t all happen due to players wanting to play for contenders or taking less money to stay with their current teams – etc. So, of the 5 options I listed, I think the Twins would realistically be able to achieve 3:

1. Sign Shaun Marcum
2. Sign Johan Santana
3. Sign Phil Hughes

The typically conservative Twins’ front office is unlikely to spend big money on a player like Johnson who has such large question marks. Scott Baker reportedly wanted a change of scenery in leaving Minnesota last season, and I’m assuming that he’s going to stick to that train of thought in looking for a new team in 2014. Finally, I’m assuming Arroyo wants to sign with a contender for the last part of his career and will likely take less money to join the Reds / Nationals / Braves / Pirates – etc.

Even if those three moves are the only deals the Twins can get done, their 2014 rotation is suddenly looking much more promising than many expected. Hughes slots in as the staff ace, while a healthy Marcum makes a great #2 starter and a healthy Johan Santana could easily be a great #4 starter. Slot in Kevin Correia as the #5 guy and Gibson / Deduno / Hendriks / Albers / Diamond / Worley as the #3 man and you have a respectable rotation.

Is it high risk? Certainly. But with the 2014 Twins looking to simply return to .500, the team can afford to roll out a riskier rotation. If players fail, they can restock in 2015 (and will be supplemented by young pitching like Alex Meyer and Trevor May) if they succeed, the Twins have a cheap piece to use for the future or flip for younger arms that will be ready when the youngsters are ready to make a playoff run.

The only wrong approach to the coming off season would be to repeat the 2012 and 2013 offseasons – sign low cost, low upside journeymen and do little else on the free agent market – the old method has failed three years in a row, it’s time to try something new.