Let's Get Statistical - A Look At Twins Pitching

Recently, we took a look at wRC+ (Weighted runs created plus) and how it was a nice indicator of offensive value for a team. Using wRC+, we could see that not only do the Minnesota Twins have two elite offensive assets in Josh Willingham and Joe Mauer, but the rest of their potential 2013 roster is filled with above average offensive contributors as well.

Using this metric, I feel comfortable in saying that the 2013 Twins will be a very good offensive ball club. Unfortunately, the other team gets to bat too.

Pitching is the obvious area of concern when it comes to the 2013 Twins. Their rotation was historically bad in 2012, consisting of a rotating cast of throw away arms, journeymen and AAAA level players. The Twins have addressed the issue in 2013 by… picking up more journeymen. Yikes.

By utilizing another advanced metric – FIP (Fielding independent pitching) we can see just how the 2012 Twins pitchers stacked up against the rest of the league. A variation of that metric, xFIP (Expected fielding independent pitching) can then be used alongside FIP to project the 2013 seasons of the Twins’ starters.

Warning: Fun times with math and numbers ahead!

Before I get too far ahead of myself, let’s go over what exactly FIP is and what it’s composed of.

Think of FIP as a more accurate form of ERA. While ERA, obviously, indicates the average earned runs a pitcher allows over each of their starts, it erroneously charges pitchers with runs that they could do nothing to prevent. For example, poor defensive plays, or random chance hits. FIP removes the randomness and only grades the pitcher on controllable outcomes, walks (both BB and HBP variety, IBB are not counted as they are intentional decisions by a manager – not controllable by a pitcher) strikeouts and home runs.

This metric ends up giving a very clear picture of the elite pitchers, while still staying within the ERA ‘realm’ to help people understand what numbers mean what. During the 2012 season, the league average FIP was at or around 4.00. Anything above 4.00 is below average, anything lower than 4.00 is above average.

League average ERA in 2012? 4.01 – yup, this metric works.

Now, onto the Twins.

In 2012, only 1 pitcher from the Twins tabbed enough innings to even be eligible in the standard FIP comparisons: Scott Diamond. Diamond posted a FIP of 3.94, slightly above his ERA of 3.54 in 2012. This is accurate when you consider what type of pitcher Diamond is – he does tend to give up home runs, relies quite a bit on fielding (Ground ball double plays are his friend) and he limits his walks. As such, FIP is showing that Diamond is slightly better than a league average pitcher – which I think is an agreeable assessment for any honest Twins fan.

Here’s how the other Twins pitchers looked in 2012:

(Note: This list is composed of starters who pitched at least 50 innings in 2012 and contains only starters)

(Blogger aparrently jacks up Excel charts when they are copy / pasted over - they're still discernable, so I'll leave them, sorry for making extra work when you read these).

 

FIP

ERA

Scott Diamond

3.94

3.54

Francisco Liriano

4.3

5.34

Carl Pavano

4.38

6

Cole DeVries

4.81

3.99

Brian Duensing

4.81

6.92

P.J. Walters

5.48

5.69

Samuel Deduno

5.5

4.44

Liam Hendriks

5.57

5.59

Nick Blackburn

6.09

7.39

　

A few things jump off the page right away. We’ve already discussed Diamond, and how his metrics are close enough together to show that Diamond was exactly as he seemed last season.

Francisco Liriano and Carl Pavano, however, were not as lucky. Their FIP (4.30 & 4.38 respectively) is significantly lower than their actual ERA. What does this mean? Well, simply put, they were really unlucky. Liriano and Pavano were both charged runs that were not their fault. The likely cause of this is a porous defense that the Twins call their middle infield allowing balls in play to become runners rather than outs. FIP does not charge those to a pitcher, while ERA will charge those runs.

Brian Duensing also makes the list as an unfortunate casualty to the Twins poor middle infield. His FIP, while still below average at 4.81 is still better than his sky-high 6.92 ERA. Essentially, FIP tells us that Duensing is a below average starter, but not as bad a starter as his ERA would indicate.

Alternatively, a few Twins pitchers came away looking better than they really should. Cole De Vries posted a slightly below average 4.81 FIP, but his ERA was only 3.99. Essentially, FIP is saying De Vries was lucky last year. He gives up too many home runs and walks – this reflects in his metric. While his ERA was ‘decent’ at 3.99, his FIP says we shouldn’t expect that year in and year out.

Samuel Deduno is another starter who’s ERA doesn’t tell the full story. Deduno’s 4.40 ERA, while not ideal, doesn’t show just how lucky he was in 2012. His 5.5 FIP reflects his high walk totals and home runs allowed. Like De Vries, the Twins should not expect Deduno to limit runs to the extent he did in 2012.

Finally, players such as Liam Hendriks, PJ Walters and Nick Blackburn were exactly what their ERA said they were – bad. (It should be noted that Hendriks posted a not-great-but-improving 5.02 FIP in the 2^nd half of 2012. His first half FIP of 6.92 explains why his metric stayed so high at season’s end).

So, there you have it – FIP shows us a better picture of who the 2012 Minnesota pitchers were. Only slightly above average starter and a platoon of below average, poor and awful starters.

Except that’s not the whole story – not until we work in xFIP. What’s the difference between xFIP and FIP? (The x)

I’m kidding!

The ‘x’ stands for ‘expected’ and it means that the number of home runs a player SHOULD have given up are also factored into their FIP. This is calculated by taking the pitcher’s fly ball rate and applying it against the league average fly ball rate. Home runs are random and tend to vary from year to year. Therefore, it’s hard to make a reliable metric that will measure home runs on a consistent basis. What you can measure, however, is a player that lets the ball carry to the outfield too often. These fly balls have a greater chance of being homeruns and thus can accurately be counted against a pitcher as potential future runs allowed. Got it? Good. Let’s add xFIP to the equation and see what we get.

Name

FIP

xFIP

Scott Diamond

3.94

3.93

Francisco Liriano

4.3

3.93

Carl Pavano

4.38

4.48

Brian Duensing

4.81

4.48

P.J. Walters

5.48

4.54

Cole DeVries

4.81

4.71

Samuel Deduno

5.5

4.73

Liam Hendriks

5.57

4.75

Nick Blackburn

6.09

5.1

 

Once again, league average is 4.00

Now the picture gets a little more interesting – furthermore, you can see that these metrics really work. How so? Look how much the Twins’ starters xFIP drops when expected home runs (IE Fly ball rates) are factored in. By and large, Twins pitchers are ground ball pitchers. They’re taught to "pitch to contact", put the ball in play and let the defense make stops. Most starters do not allow a lot of fly balls in the Twins system.

You can see that above, when fly ball rates are factored in, the Twins starting staff drops closer to the average range. In fact, Francisco Liriano would have joined Scott Diamond as an above average pitcher. Remember, however, that xFIP is a better predictor of FUTURE performance and less on what actually happened. Looking at it this way, you can see that 2012 was almost a statistical anomaly across the board. Twins starters SHOULDN’T struggle like they did in 2012.

So, by xFIP, the Twins staff is slightly below average, but not horrid, which is likely what the front office thought when they went into 2012. Unfortunately, a majority of their staff underperformed in 2012, allowing more fly balls and home runs, thereby inflating their FIP.

So, how do we use these numbers to forecast future output? xFIP is a nice correlator to future numbers, as previous seasons xFIP usually ends up being a close approximation to next season’s ERA & FIP. Luckily, we don’t have to crunch the numbers and analyze xFIP to generate 2013 FIP and ERA. Bill James does that already. By his calculations, the Twins staff will put up FIP like this:

Name

FIP

Scott Diamond

3.49

Liam Hendriks

3.61

Vance Worley

3.8

Mike Pelfrey

4.2

Cole De Vries

4.22

Samuel Deduno

4.22

Kevin Correia

4.29

 

NOTE: Mike Pelfrey’s FIP is his career average; projections for 2013 were not available.

NOTE: Kyle Gibson was not included as minor league data was not used in 2013 projections.

Ugh! Right? Pelfrey, De Vries, Deduno, Correia are all slightly below average pitchers while only Diamond, Hendriks(!) and Worley project to be a little better than average.

It can be argued that this is a good thing, however. Think about it, THIS:

Name

FIP

Scott Diamond

3.94

Francisco Liriano

4.3

Carl Pavano

4.38

Brian Duensing

4.81

P.J. Walters

5.48

Cole DeVries

4.81

Samuel Deduno

5.5

Liam Hendriks

5.57

Nick Blackburn

6.09

This is the stuff that should haunt your dreams  

Was 2012’s list. By comparison, 2013’s projections aren’t so bad. If Correia, Pelfrey and De Vries or Deduno can be just below average while Hendriks, Worley and Diamond all pitch at or above average, the rotation will actually be vastly improved from 2012.

Of course, 2012 FIP and xFIP indicate that the Twins shouldn’t count on De Vries and Deduno to deliver numbers like that…

And there’s the downfall of projected statistics. There’s last year’s metrics, there’s this years projections – sometimes they simply don’t line up. If predicting next years stats was so easy, the game would be a lot less fun to watch anyway!

Where do all these numbers and projections leave us? I’ll sum it up in a few bullet points:

We can expect more of the same from Scott Diamond


Vance Worley is the solid starter the Twins needed


Liam Hendriks is going to make the jump to reliable Major League starter


The Pelfrey and Correia signings were as underwhelming as we all thought


2013’s staff will be better than 2012 by default, 2012 was as bad as it can get

So, if the offense is on track and the pitching will be improved, but still a little below league average, can we assume the Twins win more games in 2013 than 2012?

Maybe.

First, we have to look at one more metric. Defense. Look for that post in the coming days.

An Advanced Look At The Twins Offense

Quick, name the offensive MVP for the Twins last season.

The name that immediately comes to mind is Josh Willingham, whose big swing drove in runs as he deposited baseballs into the left field seats at Target Field.

But what of Joe Mauer? His discipline, keen eye and solid swing surely contributed the most to the Twins offense in 2012.

Ben Revere? His speed on the base paths had to create a few runs for the team in 2012, right?

The issue of naming an offensive MVP begins by defining, what exactly makes a player valuable on offense – home runs, RBI, steals…or something more?

Luckily, the sabermetric community has the answer in the form of a handy little statistic called Weighted Runs Created Plus. While wRC+ doesn’t really roll off the tongue like "RBI", it does tell a whole lot more about player value than the old school stats ever could.

Essentially, weighted runs created is an advancement on the traditional runs created metric. This statistic is useful in displaying a clear cut rank and file of the best offensive producers in MLB. It boils down to simply "Player X created Y runs for his team last year".

The advantage of wRC+ is that, unlike runs created, the metric is compared against league average. So, not only will it indicate the level of contribution player X provided to said team, it will show that contribution against the league average allowing analysts and fans to see who is underachieving on their team.

League average for wRC+ is set at 100, with each number above or below 100 representing one percentage point. For example, in 2012, Denard Span’s wRC+ was 105, meaning he contributed 5% more offense than league average.

The beauty of wRC+ is that it is park and league adjusted, meaning factors such as tough hitter’s parks (Petco, Target Field) and hitter friendly parks (New Yankee stadium, Ranger’s Stadium) are already factored into the metric.

Alright, statistics lesson over for today – the quiz is Monday. Let’s look at how the Twins stacked up in 2012 based on wRC+

In 2012, 7 of the Twins starting offensive players had enough at bats to qualify for this metric:

Josh Willingham

wRC+ 143

Joe Mauer

wRC+ 140

Ryan Doumit

wRC+ 110

Justin Morneau

wRC+ 108

Denard Span

wRC+ 105

Ben Revere

wRC+ 88

Jamey Carroll

wRC+ 88

Josh Willingham tops the list with a whopping 143 wRC+ - that’s 43% more offensive production than league average. Not far behind is Joe Mauer, with an equally impressive wRC+ of 140 – 40% better than league average.

(As an aside, these may be the best metric to shut up all the foolish Twins fans who boo or scream "TRADE MAUER" throughout the year. Mauer is contributing 40% more offense than league average. He’s one of the best players in baseball. You DON’T trade playrs like that…unless you’re the Marlins)

Ryan Doumit and Justin Morneau turned in respectable performances, contributing just above league average offense. Denard Span added a nice 5% boost as well.

Ben Revere and Jamey Carroll actually UNDER achieved in 2012 as far as run producing was concerned.

In the end, we can use this metric to determine that Josh Willingham could aptly be named "Offensive MVP" for the 2012, but when you factor in defense, Joe Mauer and his 5.0 WAR (Wins above replacement – i.e. how many wins a player is worth to his team) he clearly becomes the team MVP for 2012.

BUT

We can do more with this metric than reminss on a season past. Using this metric, we can see how the Twins are shaping up for the upcoming season. First, let’s look at the top 20 wRC+ players:

Mike Trout

166

Miguel Cabrera

166

Buster Posey

162

Ryan Braun

162

Andrew McCutchen

158

Prince Fielder

153

Edwin Encarnacion

152

Robinson Cano

150

Chase Headley

145

Josh Willingham

143

Aramis Ramirez

142

Matt Holliday

141

David Wright

140

Adrian Beltre

140

Joe Mauer

140

Josh Hamilton

140

Billy Butler

140

Yadier Molina

139

Allen Craig

138

Nearly every name on that list is an All-Star or one of the league’s "Elite" players. Only 1 team, the Tigers, have 2 players in the top 10. Only the Tigers, Cardinals and Twins have multiple players in the top 20.

What’s that all mean? Well, from the Twins perspective, it means they have the high caliber players in place to have an elite offense. Josh Willingham and Joe Mauer are both top of the line, elite offensive talents that can anchor a good team.

Obviously it takes more than one or two ‘elite’ guys to form a good offense; you also need a solid supporting cast of producers, which the Twins have in Justin Morneau and Ryan Doumit. In fact, using the wRC+ metric, one can see that the Twins have one of the better offensive ballclubs in baseball (Trailing only the Cardinals and Angels in terms of quantity of 100+ wRC+ players)

*Note – Josh Hamilton moving to the Angles means the Angles rather than the Rangers gain that distinction*

The biggest loss for the Twins entering 2013 is obviously going to be Denard Span, whose 105 wRC+ and 3.9 WAR will be tough to replace.

It’s likely that Darin Mastroianni will step in for the beginning of the season (in AAA, Mastroianni had a wRC+ of 132, but that number fell to 90 in his timeshare role with the big league club). By May or June, however, I’d expect Aaron Hicks to be patrolling CF full time for the Twins.

Hicks’ AA wRC+ registered at 133 in 2012, while we cannot project his numbers to the Major League level, it wouldn’t be unheard of to expect a wRC+ of between 90 and 100 for the youngster. Factoring in his defense and arm strength, it’s entirely possible that the Twins see little to no drop off from Denard Span to Aaron Hicks.

The other player the Twins will have to replace is Ben Revere, whose wRC+ is already replaced by Mastroianni’s wRC+ of 90. Filling in for Revere in RF will be Chris Parmelee, who posted an impressive wRC+ of 202 in AAA (a more modest MLB wRC+ of 83 doesn’t accurately show his offensive ability). While he’s not going to be putting up Trout like numbers, it’s not unreasonable to expect the numbers to even out somewhere in-between. Offensively, the Twins will have improved by swapping Revere for Parmelee.

wRC+ shows us that the 2013 Twins are going to be stacked with potential run producers. From Josh Willingham, Joe Mauer, Ryan Doumit, Justin Morneau, Chris Parmelee and even Darin Mastroianni or Aaron Hicks, the Twins’ offense will see little if no decline (in fact, it may improve) from 2012.

If offense was the only concern, the 2013 Twins would look pretty promising. Unfortunately, offense is the least of the Twins worries coming into next season.

I’m working on breaking down the Twins pitchers on another advanced metric – FIP – and we’ll take a look at just what the Twins are facing from a pitching standpoint in 2013. (Hint: early indicators are not promising)

Crystal Ball: Engaged

I’ve already taken my first crack at estimating the 2013 opening day roster for the Twins. It’s a game of little risk as many of the position players are already entrenched in their roles and there is little in the way of surprises (for the most part) when it comes to everyday players.

The real challenge is in naming a roster 2 years in the future. That’s right – today I’m going to take my first crack at the next competive Twins roster – the 2014 opening day roster.

C: Joe Mauer

1B: Chris Parmelee

2B: Eddie Rosario

SS: Daniel Santana / Levi Michael

3B: Trevor Plouffe

LF: Joe Benson

CF: Aaron Hicks

RF: Oswaldo Arcia

DH: Travis Harrison

Bench: Chris Hermann, Darin Mastroianni, Ryan Doumit, Pedro Florimon

Pitching:

Kyle Gibson

Trevor May

Jose Berrios

Scott Diamond

Liam Hendriks

Bullpen:

Brian Duensing

Kevin Correia

Anthony Swarzak

Anthony Slama

Jared Burton

Casey Fien

Glen Perkins

Not too bad of a roster, eh? The funny thing is, this is with basically zero free agent acquisitions. I could see the team picking up a veteran SS in place of Florimon or filling 2B with a higher profile free agent if Rosario isn't ready (I think he will be). The team has such depth at OF and young pitching (finally) that the 2014 version will be constructed of almost all "farm guys" - the way the Twins USED to be. They'll be massively under budget and full of talent. Scary isn't it?

25 Man Guestimations

It’s the dead of winter. The Twins are in the midst of doing absolutely nothing in the free agent market and the team looks destined to repeat their 2011 and 2012 losing seasons.

Let’s brighten things up with a 25 roster project. Yes, it’s January. Yes, spring training has yet to begin. Yes, it’s far too early to do this with any accuracy, but I’m doing it anyway.

Position Players:

C: Joe Mauer

Despite the Twins insistence of moving Mauer to 1B, he’s going to be the opening day catcher for the team and he’ll likely play over half of his games behind the plate. After contending for a batting title one year after an injury plagued season, Mauer is expected to be even better in 2013.

1B: Justin Morneau

The length of Morneau’s stay in Minnesota this season may be in question, but his spot on opening day is not. Justin, who finally stayed healthy for a majority of 2012, is looking to fully bounce back from concussion and wrist issues that have plagued him for the past two seasons. A fully healthy Morneau should be able to rip the cover off the ball for the Twins and may boost his value around the trade deadline.

2B: Brian Dozier

My first against the grain pick for the 2013 season comes at 2B. Long time veteran Jamie Carroll is the front runner for the position after being Mr. Reliable in 2012. I’m anticipating Dozier to play well in spring training and show that his mid season demotion and lack of a call-up in September was a motivating factor for improvement. Dozier has the bat, so long as he improves his batting eye (far too many swinging strikes last season 17.1% percentage to a meager 4.7% walk percentage). His defense needs improving too, and I’m anticipating that area of his game has matured as well. If all of the above factors are met, Dozier should be the opening day 2B.

SS: Pedro Florimon

Florimon was the perfect "Gardy-Guy" during his late call-up last season. He hustled on the base paths, made solid plays in the field and gave lots of ‘scrappy’ effort on the diamond. He’s probably not a starter on a lot of Major League rosters, but he’s about the best option the Twins have at short coming into 2013.

3B: Trevor Plouffe

Despite General Manager Terry Ryan’s insistence that he was going to find a guy to "motivate" Plouffe in 2013, it looks like he’ll go into the new season without a real threat to replace him on the bench. Plouffe struggled in early 2012 as he was bounced around the diamond and given zero consistency. Once he was plopped in a permanent spot, Plouffe found his swing and started crushing the ball. A thumb injury mid-season really took the steam from his swing and he never fully recovered by season’s end. Now that he’s likely fully recovered, look for June / July Plouffe to return and the ball to begin flying out of the park again. Hopefully a full year at 3B will allow Plouffe to improve his defense as well.

LF: Josh Willingham

Last season’s biggest free agent signing is back in left field, ready to mash a few more balls for the Twins. I don’t anticipate Willingham to hold down LF for the entire season, however, as I believe the Twins will start to use him more as a DH to preserve his legs, which wore down after a full season in 2012.

CF: Joe Benson

Against the grain pick #2. Aaron Hicks, the likely successor to Denard Span’s CF spot, will likely start the year in AAA to get a few higher level at bats prior to being called up in May. This would also buy the Twins another year of contract eligibility for the youngster, something a budget wise team like the Twins are always aware of. Darin Mastroianni was thought to be the likely ‘fill-in’ guy to start the year, but I have a hunch Joe Benson, who is finally healthy after a horrid 2012, will hit well in spring training and earn the starting job.

RF: Chris Parmelee

Parmelee cannot spend any more time in AAA. The man owns the lower leagues after destroying pitching in 2012. He never quite found his swing at the Major League level, but I feel that’s due more to a lack of playing time / consistency and less to do with his ability. Given an everyday spot, look for Parmelee to show how good of a hitter he truly is.

DH: Ryan Doumit

Doumit will see a decent amount of time behind the plate in 2013 as well, but on opening day I’d look for Ron Gardenhire to get his bat in the lineup any way he can.

Bench:

Darin Mastroianni

Jamie Carroll

Drew Butera

Eduardo Escobar

Mastroianni works well as a 4^th outfielder, and that’s where he’ll spend much of his time in 2013. Look for him to be a nice defensive replacement in 7^th inning on and a fill in guy to give Willingham, Parmelee or even Benson a day off.

Jamie Carroll, despite being listed as a ‘bench’ guy above, will likely be starting most days for either Plouffe, Florimon or Dozier. He’d also function nicely as a late inning defensive replacement.

Drew Butera, Gardy’s back-up plan. Too paranoid to simply let his catchers go play, Gardy insists that Butera be available to fill in for an injured Doumit or Mauer at the drop of a hat. Butera does have great defensive value, however, so his spot is not a total waste, but offensively, he’s a black hole.

Eduardo Escobar, I’m debating if the Twins will hold another light hitting middle infielder with speed on the roster or if they’ll fill this spot with a bat for pinch hitting duties. Since the starting roster is loaded with power hitters (Doumit, Willingham, Plouffe, Parmelee, Morneau) I think they’ll go with speed off the bench. Escobar plays multiple defensive positions and sports good enough defense to be a worthy defensive replacement. On this team, that earns you a spot on the opening day roster.

First Guys Up (When the inevitable call-ups begin in May & June, I think these bats are the first to get the call)

Aaron Hicks – He’ll take over for Benson in CF around May. Benson will shift to LF, moving Willingham to DH.


Chris Hermann – A backup catcher who can also play in the outfield, Hermann’s utility is amazing. His bat is capable (.276 BA in AAA) he just needs a little more seasoning before he’s Major League ready. If Butera’s bat continues to be a liability, look for Hermann to get a shot mid season.


Oswaldo Arcia – Look for him in July or August. After the team moves Justin Morneau, they’ll shift Parmelee to 1B, opening up Arcia’s preferred RF spot.


Mark Sobolewski – The Twins Rule 5 AAA pick, Sobolewski is a defensive 3B who has the ability to swing a decent bat. If Plouffe struggles, look for Mark to get some chances.


Eddie Rosario – The 2B of the future for the Twins, Rosario will likely start the year either in high A Fort Meyers or AA New Britain, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Rosario’s name is one of those listed on a September call-up.

Pitchers:

Scott Diamond


2012’s ace, Diamond returns to the top of the 2013 return simply because the team did very little to bolster the starting staff in the offseason. Good control, durable, and able to keep the game close, Diamond will once again be the star of the staff.
Vance Worley


The only really nice pitching acquisition by the Twins this offseason was Vance Worley. Worley is atypical for a Twins pitcher, which is why he’ll succeed in 2013 with the Twins. He strikes batters out and can take over a game by himself. With a questionable defense behind him, strikeouts will be Worley’s best friend in 2013.
Liam Hendriks


I’ll be the first to admit, Liam’s 2012 was putrid. Many times he looked like the situation was simply too big for him, and he started to leave pitchers up and over the middle of the plate. That’s not his MO, however. Hendriks is touted for his great control and ability to hit the corners of a strikezone with ease. I feel like he got squeezed quite a bit last year, as umps would call borderline pitches balls that would be strikes if someone like Felix Hernandez was throwing them. This put Liam behind in the count and forced him to serve up fast balls for the opponent to tee off of. I see 2013 being a lot like Scott Diamond’s 2012. I think Liam will now be adjusted to the big leagues and be able to pitch with more confidence, which in turn will allow him to get back to the pitcher we know he can be. We saw flashes of the good Hendriks throughout 2012, and I’m of the belief that 2013 will mark the full time appearance of "good Liam"
Mike Pelfrey


If healthy, Pelfrey will eat innings, keep the game close and be a reliable starter every five days. That’s really all the Twins want out of him and that’s likely all they’ll get. He’s not a strikeout pitcher, and he’s not going to be throwing gems every five days. He is what he is, but after a season of never knowing WHAT was going to take the mound, some consistency isn’t a bad thing.
Cole De Vries
Against the grain once more, I don’t feel that Kevin Correia is going to pitch well enough to earn a starting spot in 2013. Alternatively, I think Cole De Vries is due to surprise some people. Towards the end of 2012, De Vries was really hitting his stride and starting to learn how to pitch to good hitters. He’s solid enough to earn a spot in the opening day rotation.

Relief:

Long Relievers –

Kyle Gibson

Kyle is going to be on some form of innings limit as this is his first shot back from TJ surgery. Look for him to start 2013 in the ‘pen, then move to the rotation around July to try his hand at starting.

Brian Duensing

Duensing is not cut out to be a starter, but as a long reliever, he works pretty well. Solid arm out of the ‘pen.

Kevin Correia

By virture of his contract only, Correia will likely be the mop up guy sent out to stop the bleeding if a starter is getting shelled. (Essentially taking Anthony Swarzak’s role in 2012).

Middle Relief

Josh Roenicke

Roenicke, a waiver wire pick-up from Colorado, could function nicely as a set-up man, but I’d anticipate the Twins will use him as a late inning option or in high leverage situations.

Casey Fien

The hard throwing right hander earned his 2013 spot by pitching so well late in games in 2012. Fien can either come out of the ‘pen to get one guy, or finish off an inning.

Jared Burton

2012’s All-Star caliber set-up man is back in the same role in 2013. Burton has shown the ability to strike batters out and close out games. His 8^th inning spot is a near lock in 2013.

Glen Perkins

The Minnesota native finally moves into his full time closing role. With a vicious slider and nasty fastball, Perkins blows batters away, a great trait for a closer.

First guys up:

Anthony Slama – I had Slama on my initial roster, but at 26 players, someone had to get the boot. With Fien, Burton, Roenicke and Perkins filling the late inning roles, Slama was the obvious choice to be sent down. If someone struggles or is injured, I’d expect the Twins to finally give Slama a shot.


Alex Burnett – Left off the roster because I wanted an extra man on the bench, look for Burnett to get the call if a player hits the DL or if the ‘pen needs a fresh arm.


Anthony Swarzak – Similar to Burnett, Swarzak is off the roster simply because there’s too many players. Gibson basically takes his spot, but I think the Twins will defer to the guy with greater upside (Gibson) meaning Swarzak misses out.


Tim Wood – From the independent league, Tim Wood is an interesting prospect. Spring training will determine how the Twins will use him, but I’d anticipate Wood to get a few looks as a starter.


Samuel Deduno – 2012’s most fun pitcher to watch, Deduno will be on the short list of fill in candidates should a starter go down or pitch ineffectively. If he’s found a way to control his fastball, he’ll get a shot even sooner.

There it is, if the season started today, these are the 25 guys that I would estimate to compose the opening day roster for the Twins. It’s probably wrong, but it’s January – what else are we going to talk about?

Hall of Shame: The BBWAA Got It Wrong

At 1pm central time today, the BBWAA made their annual Hall Of Fame announcement, typically the moment that launches a superstar player into the realm of immortality. The announcement begins a long press tour for the inductee(s) as they tour the country, meet with media and are graced with highlight reels reminding America just how good this player was. The entire event builds to induction day, right smack in the middle of summer – baseball’s prime time – and ends with another player or players being forever enshrined amongst the game’s best.

The only problem? The writers didn’t vote anyone in this year.

2013’s ballot was a controversial one for sure, as it marked the first appearance of Roger Clemens and Barry Bonds, the two most high profile and highly volatile players of the "Steroid Era". It’s not even an argument that Bonds and Clemens were not the best players of their generations. The argument on their Hall of Fame worthiness came to the issue of steroids and how to punish those with connections to baseball’s tainted era.

Some writers felt that Clemens and Bonds were Hall of Fame players regardless of any performance enhancing drugs they may or may not have used. Others argued that if these players were already Hall of Fame worthy or all time greats – why did they feel the need to cheat the system?

Both sides have valid points, and I can understand why a divided group of writers would struggle to elect players of Bonds, Clemens, Sosa or even McGuire’s ilk.

My 2 cents on this is simple: The Hall of Fame is a museum for baseball. It is supposed to tell baseball’s story, from beginning to end, good to bad. Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens – heck, even Sammy Sosa and Mark McGuire made largely positive impacts on the game. Bonds and Clemens were all time great players – once in a generation guys. Leaving them out of the Hall as some form of righteous "punishment" for perceived misdeeds does a disservice to baseball and the fans of the game. It’s not up to the BBWAA to impose their own morality code upon the game’s greatest players. Instead, let the fan decide how to view these players.

Put Bonds and Clemens in the Hall (Sosa wasn’t good enough for long enough to warrant entry nor was McGuire anything more than a one dimensional player – so I feel neither of them should be enshrined, PED use or not) but put all of the information we have on the walls around them. A simple plaque reading:

"In the 1990’s Baseball had not yet established a testing policy for performance enhancing drugs or other competitive aides. Players during this era may have seen their numbers aided by the use of substances that are today deemed illegal."

Put information from "Game Of Shadows" next to Bond’s displays – put the Federal trial against Clemens next to his display. Display all of the question marks surrounding these great players, but don’t keep out an all time great simply because you think some non-existent morality clause that the Hall of Fame holds has been broken.

There are all time greats currently enshrined in the Hall who have been revealed to be racist, drug abusers, violent or otherwise unsavory. That’s human nature – talented people make poor decisions too. This isn’t the Hall of the well behaved. This is baseball’s Hall of Fame – a place to enshrine the best PLAYERS – not the best citizens.

Bonds / Clemens debate aside, the BBWAA committed a bigger travesty than leaving out those two controversial players.

By not electing ANYONE they essentially cast a vote for "guilty by association".

Players from the 1990’s whose resumes warrant entry to the Hall of Fame, Craig Biggio, Jeff Bagwell and Mike Piazza – were (erroneously) left out in the cold. Piazza’s name was thrown into the "he MIGHT have used" discussion over the past few months, which is irritating. Without concrete evidence or even any real accusations, it’s simply unfair to hold out a great player because of assumed notions.

Jeff Bagwell has famously voiced his pro-steroid user views (essentially saying all the wrong things regarding steroids – according to baseball writers) and is a bulky guy, thereby placing him in the "Well, he probably used but we can’t prove it category" Again, without anything to connect Bagwell to PED use, holding him out on a hunch is asinine.

Craig Biggio was a great all around player with Hall of Fame numbers and nothing in the way of PEDs being tied to his name. His omission from the Hall is simply ridiculous.

It’s entirely possible that enough writers within the BBWAA hold on to the archaic notion of "First Ballot Hall of Famers". In their minds, some players deserve to go into the Hall on their first try (IE – first ballot) while others, despite being Hall of Fame caliber – aren’t quite "Hall of Fame caliber enough" to be a first ballot guy.

Bullshit.

What changes between year 1 of eligibility and year 2? Do a guy’s numbers suddenly improve? Did statisticians find another 50 home runs that were somehow not allocated to said player? No – of course they didn’t. A player’s resume doesn’t change from year 1 to year 2. If you feel said player was good enough to be in the Hall in year 5 then they sure as hell were good enough in year 1.

(Some may question why guys are given multiple tries on the ballot – wouldn’t the simple fix be a one and done policy? IE this is your eligibility year, if you’re not elected, you don’t make it? In a word – no. The BBWAA are restricted to 10 names on a ballot, so in years where an abundance of quality players hit the ballot, it’s entirely feasible that someone will be the 11^th guy on a 10 man ballot. The easy fix would be to remove the 10 name restriction – but that is as likely to happen as a complete over hall to the voting system.)

In the end, the BBWAA decided that steroid users, or assumed steroid users, are not worthy of enshrinement. I can understand their reasoning, and while I don’t necessarily agree with their thinking, I can respect their opinion.

The travesty is that in all of their bellowing and argument regarding steroid users, players who have never been firmly linked to cheating where left out in the cold. This summer, there won’t be any grand inductions or celebrations of great players – just a sorry reminder that the greatest sport’s museum is in a period of turmoil.