Quick, name the offensive MVP for the Twins last season.
The name that immediately comes to mind is Josh Willingham, whose big swing drove in runs as he deposited baseballs into the left field seats at Target Field.
But what of Joe Mauer? His discipline, keen eye and solid swing surely contributed the most to the Twins offense in 2012.
Ben Revere? His speed on the base paths had to create a few runs for the team in 2012, right?
The issue of naming an offensive MVP begins by defining, what exactly makes a player valuable on offense – home runs, RBI, steals…or something more?
Luckily, the sabermetric community has the answer in the form of a handy little statistic called Weighted Runs Created Plus. While wRC+ doesn’t really roll off the tongue like "RBI", it does tell a whole lot more about player value than the old school stats ever could.
Essentially, weighted runs created is an advancement on the traditional runs created metric. This statistic is useful in displaying a clear cut rank and file of the best offensive producers in MLB. It boils down to simply "Player X created Y runs for his team last year".
The advantage of wRC+ is that, unlike runs created, the metric is compared against league average. So, not only will it indicate the level of contribution player X provided to said team, it will show that contribution against the league average allowing analysts and fans to see who is underachieving on their team.
League average for wRC+ is set at 100, with each number above or below 100 representing one percentage point. For example, in 2012, Denard Span’s wRC+ was 105, meaning he contributed 5% more offense than league average.
The beauty of wRC+ is that it is park and league adjusted, meaning factors such as tough hitter’s parks (Petco, Target Field) and hitter friendly parks (New Yankee stadium, Ranger’s Stadium) are already factored into the metric.
Alright, statistics lesson over for today – the quiz is Monday. Let’s look at how the Twins stacked up in 2012 based on wRC+
In 2012, 7 of the Twins starting offensive players had enough at bats to qualify for this metric:
Josh Willingham
|
wRC+ 143
Joe Mauer
wRC+ 140
Ryan Doumit
wRC+ 110
Justin Morneau
wRC+ 108
Denard Span
wRC+ 105
Ben Revere
wRC+ 88
Jamey Carroll
wRC+ 88
Josh Willingham tops the list with a whopping 143 wRC+ - that’s 43% more offensive production than league average. Not far behind is Joe Mauer, with an equally impressive wRC+ of 140 – 40% better than league average.
(As an aside, these may be the best metric to shut up all the foolish Twins fans who boo or scream "TRADE MAUER" throughout the year. Mauer is contributing 40% more offense than league average. He’s one of the best players in baseball. You DON’T trade playrs like that…unless you’re the Marlins)
Ryan Doumit and Justin Morneau turned in respectable performances, contributing just above league average offense. Denard Span added a nice 5% boost as well.
Ben Revere and Jamey Carroll actually UNDER achieved in 2012 as far as run producing was concerned.
In the end, we can use this metric to determine that Josh Willingham could aptly be named "Offensive MVP" for the 2012, but when you factor in defense, Joe Mauer and his 5.0 WAR (Wins above replacement – i.e. how many wins a player is worth to his team) he clearly becomes the team MVP for 2012.
BUT
We can do more with this metric than reminss on a season past. Using this metric, we can see how the Twins are shaping up for the upcoming season. First, let’s look at the top 20 wRC+ players:
Mike Trout
|
166
Miguel Cabrera
166
Buster Posey
162
Ryan Braun
162
Andrew McCutchen
158
Prince Fielder
153
Edwin Encarnacion
152
Robinson Cano
150
Chase Headley
145
Josh Willingham
143
Aramis Ramirez
142
Matt Holliday
141
David Wright
140
Adrian Beltre
140
Joe Mauer
140
Josh Hamilton
140
Billy Butler
140
Yadier Molina
139
Allen Craig
138
Nearly every name on that list is an All-Star or one of the league’s "Elite" players. Only 1 team, the Tigers, have 2 players in the top 10. Only the Tigers, Cardinals and Twins have multiple players in the top 20.
What’s that all mean? Well, from the Twins perspective, it means they have the high caliber players in place to have an elite offense. Josh Willingham and Joe Mauer are both top of the line, elite offensive talents that can anchor a good team.
Obviously it takes more than one or two ‘elite’ guys to form a good offense; you also need a solid supporting cast of producers, which the Twins have in Justin Morneau and Ryan Doumit. In fact, using the wRC+ metric, one can see that the Twins have one of the better offensive ballclubs in baseball (Trailing only the Cardinals and Angels in terms of quantity of 100+ wRC+ players)
*Note – Josh Hamilton moving to the Angles means the Angles rather than the Rangers gain that distinction*
The biggest loss for the Twins entering 2013 is obviously going to be Denard Span, whose 105 wRC+ and 3.9 WAR will be tough to replace.
It’s likely that Darin Mastroianni will step in for the beginning of the season (in AAA, Mastroianni had a wRC+ of 132, but that number fell to 90 in his timeshare role with the big league club). By May or June, however, I’d expect Aaron Hicks to be patrolling CF full time for the Twins.
Hicks’ AA wRC+ registered at 133 in 2012, while we cannot project his numbers to the Major League level, it wouldn’t be unheard of to expect a wRC+ of between 90 and 100 for the youngster. Factoring in his defense and arm strength, it’s entirely possible that the Twins see little to no drop off from Denard Span to Aaron Hicks.
The other player the Twins will have to replace is Ben Revere, whose wRC+ is already replaced by Mastroianni’s wRC+ of 90. Filling in for Revere in RF will be Chris Parmelee, who posted an impressive wRC+ of 202 in AAA (a more modest MLB wRC+ of 83 doesn’t accurately show his offensive ability). While he’s not going to be putting up Trout like numbers, it’s not unreasonable to expect the numbers to even out somewhere in-between. Offensively, the Twins will have improved by swapping Revere for Parmelee.
wRC+ shows us that the 2013 Twins are going to be stacked with potential run producers. From Josh Willingham, Joe Mauer, Ryan Doumit, Justin Morneau, Chris Parmelee and even Darin Mastroianni or Aaron Hicks, the Twins’ offense will see little if no decline (in fact, it may improve) from 2012.
If offense was the only concern, the 2013 Twins would look pretty promising. Unfortunately, offense is the least of the Twins worries coming into next season.
I’m working on breaking down the Twins pitchers on another advanced metric – FIP – and we’ll take a look at just what the Twins are facing from a pitching standpoint in 2013. (Hint: early indicators are not promising)
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