It’s the dead of winter. The Twins are in the midst of doing absolutely nothing in the free agent market and the team looks destined to repeat their 2011 and 2012 losing seasons.
Let’s brighten things up with a 25 roster project. Yes, it’s January. Yes, spring training has yet to begin. Yes, it’s far too early to do this with any accuracy, but I’m doing it anyway.
Position Players:
C: Joe Mauer
Despite the Twins insistence of moving Mauer to 1B, he’s going to be the opening day catcher for the team and he’ll likely play over half of his games behind the plate. After contending for a batting title one year after an injury plagued season, Mauer is expected to be even better in 2013.
1B: Justin Morneau
The length of Morneau’s stay in Minnesota this season may be in question, but his spot on opening day is not. Justin, who finally stayed healthy for a majority of 2012, is looking to fully bounce back from concussion and wrist issues that have plagued him for the past two seasons. A fully healthy Morneau should be able to rip the cover off the ball for the Twins and may boost his value around the trade deadline.
2B: Brian Dozier
My first against the grain pick for the 2013 season comes at 2B. Long time veteran Jamie Carroll is the front runner for the position after being Mr. Reliable in 2012. I’m anticipating Dozier to play well in spring training and show that his mid season demotion and lack of a call-up in September was a motivating factor for improvement. Dozier has the bat, so long as he improves his batting eye (far too many swinging strikes last season 17.1% percentage to a meager 4.7% walk percentage). His defense needs improving too, and I’m anticipating that area of his game has matured as well. If all of the above factors are met, Dozier should be the opening day 2B.
SS: Pedro Florimon
Florimon was the perfect "Gardy-Guy" during his late call-up last season. He hustled on the base paths, made solid plays in the field and gave lots of ‘scrappy’ effort on the diamond. He’s probably not a starter on a lot of Major League rosters, but he’s about the best option the Twins have at short coming into 2013.
3B: Trevor Plouffe
Despite General Manager Terry Ryan’s insistence that he was going to find a guy to "motivate" Plouffe in 2013, it looks like he’ll go into the new season without a real threat to replace him on the bench. Plouffe struggled in early 2012 as he was bounced around the diamond and given zero consistency. Once he was plopped in a permanent spot, Plouffe found his swing and started crushing the ball. A thumb injury mid-season really took the steam from his swing and he never fully recovered by season’s end. Now that he’s likely fully recovered, look for June / July Plouffe to return and the ball to begin flying out of the park again. Hopefully a full year at 3B will allow Plouffe to improve his defense as well.
LF: Josh Willingham
Last season’s biggest free agent signing is back in left field, ready to mash a few more balls for the Twins. I don’t anticipate Willingham to hold down LF for the entire season, however, as I believe the Twins will start to use him more as a DH to preserve his legs, which wore down after a full season in 2012.
CF: Joe Benson
Against the grain pick #2. Aaron Hicks, the likely successor to Denard Span’s CF spot, will likely start the year in AAA to get a few higher level at bats prior to being called up in May. This would also buy the Twins another year of contract eligibility for the youngster, something a budget wise team like the Twins are always aware of. Darin Mastroianni was thought to be the likely ‘fill-in’ guy to start the year, but I have a hunch Joe Benson, who is finally healthy after a horrid 2012, will hit well in spring training and earn the starting job.
RF: Chris Parmelee
Parmelee cannot spend any more time in AAA. The man owns the lower leagues after destroying pitching in 2012. He never quite found his swing at the Major League level, but I feel that’s due more to a lack of playing time / consistency and less to do with his ability. Given an everyday spot, look for Parmelee to show how good of a hitter he truly is.
DH: Ryan Doumit
Doumit will see a decent amount of time behind the plate in 2013 as well, but on opening day I’d look for Ron Gardenhire to get his bat in the lineup any way he can.
Bench:
Darin Mastroianni
Jamie Carroll
Drew Butera
Eduardo Escobar
Mastroianni works well as a 4th outfielder, and that’s where he’ll spend much of his time in 2013. Look for him to be a nice defensive replacement in 7th inning on and a fill in guy to give Willingham, Parmelee or even Benson a day off.
Jamie Carroll, despite being listed as a ‘bench’ guy above, will likely be starting most days for either Plouffe, Florimon or Dozier. He’d also function nicely as a late inning defensive replacement.
Drew Butera, Gardy’s back-up plan. Too paranoid to simply let his catchers go play, Gardy insists that Butera be available to fill in for an injured Doumit or Mauer at the drop of a hat. Butera does have great defensive value, however, so his spot is not a total waste, but offensively, he’s a black hole.
Eduardo Escobar, I’m debating if the Twins will hold another light hitting middle infielder with speed on the roster or if they’ll fill this spot with a bat for pinch hitting duties. Since the starting roster is loaded with power hitters (Doumit, Willingham, Plouffe, Parmelee, Morneau) I think they’ll go with speed off the bench. Escobar plays multiple defensive positions and sports good enough defense to be a worthy defensive replacement. On this team, that earns you a spot on the opening day roster.
First Guys Up (When the inevitable call-ups begin in May & June, I think these bats are the first to get the call)
- Aaron Hicks – He’ll take over for Benson in CF around May. Benson will shift to LF, moving Willingham to DH.
- Chris Hermann – A backup catcher who can also play in the outfield, Hermann’s utility is amazing. His bat is capable (.276 BA in AAA) he just needs a little more seasoning before he’s Major League ready. If Butera’s bat continues to be a liability, look for Hermann to get a shot mid season.
- Oswaldo Arcia – Look for him in July or August. After the team moves Justin Morneau, they’ll shift Parmelee to 1B, opening up Arcia’s preferred RF spot.
- Mark Sobolewski – The Twins Rule 5 AAA pick, Sobolewski is a defensive 3B who has the ability to swing a decent bat. If Plouffe struggles, look for Mark to get some chances.
- Eddie Rosario – The 2B of the future for the Twins, Rosario will likely start the year either in high A Fort Meyers or AA New Britain, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Rosario’s name is one of those listed on a September call-up.
Pitchers:
- Scott Diamond
- Vance Worley
- Liam Hendriks
- Mike Pelfrey
- Cole De Vries
Against the grain once more, I don’t feel that Kevin Correia is going to pitch well enough to earn a starting spot in 2013. Alternatively, I think Cole De Vries is due to surprise some people. Towards the end of 2012, De Vries was really hitting his stride and starting to learn how to pitch to good hitters. He’s solid enough to earn a spot in the opening day rotation.
2012’s ace, Diamond returns to the top of the 2013 return simply because the team did very little to bolster the starting staff in the offseason. Good control, durable, and able to keep the game close, Diamond will once again be the star of the staff.
The only really nice pitching acquisition by the Twins this offseason was Vance Worley. Worley is atypical for a Twins pitcher, which is why he’ll succeed in 2013 with the Twins. He strikes batters out and can take over a game by himself. With a questionable defense behind him, strikeouts will be Worley’s best friend in 2013.
I’ll be the first to admit, Liam’s 2012 was putrid. Many times he looked like the situation was simply too big for him, and he started to leave pitchers up and over the middle of the plate. That’s not his MO, however. Hendriks is touted for his great control and ability to hit the corners of a strikezone with ease. I feel like he got squeezed quite a bit last year, as umps would call borderline pitches balls that would be strikes if someone like Felix Hernandez was throwing them. This put Liam behind in the count and forced him to serve up fast balls for the opponent to tee off of. I see 2013 being a lot like Scott Diamond’s 2012. I think Liam will now be adjusted to the big leagues and be able to pitch with more confidence, which in turn will allow him to get back to the pitcher we know he can be. We saw flashes of the good Hendriks throughout 2012, and I’m of the belief that 2013 will mark the full time appearance of "good Liam"
If healthy, Pelfrey will eat innings, keep the game close and be a reliable starter every five days. That’s really all the Twins want out of him and that’s likely all they’ll get. He’s not a strikeout pitcher, and he’s not going to be throwing gems every five days. He is what he is, but after a season of never knowing WHAT was going to take the mound, some consistency isn’t a bad thing.
Relief:
Long Relievers –
Kyle Gibson
Kyle is going to be on some form of innings limit as this is his first shot back from TJ surgery. Look for him to start 2013 in the ‘pen, then move to the rotation around July to try his hand at starting.
Brian Duensing
Duensing is not cut out to be a starter, but as a long reliever, he works pretty well. Solid arm out of the ‘pen.
Kevin Correia
By virture of his contract only, Correia will likely be the mop up guy sent out to stop the bleeding if a starter is getting shelled. (Essentially taking Anthony Swarzak’s role in 2012).
Middle Relief
Josh Roenicke
Roenicke, a waiver wire pick-up from Colorado, could function nicely as a set-up man, but I’d anticipate the Twins will use him as a late inning option or in high leverage situations.
Casey Fien
The hard throwing right hander earned his 2013 spot by pitching so well late in games in 2012. Fien can either come out of the ‘pen to get one guy, or finish off an inning.
Jared Burton
2012’s All-Star caliber set-up man is back in the same role in 2013. Burton has shown the ability to strike batters out and close out games. His 8th inning spot is a near lock in 2013.
Glen Perkins
The Minnesota native finally moves into his full time closing role. With a vicious slider and nasty fastball, Perkins blows batters away, a great trait for a closer.
First guys up:
- Anthony Slama – I had Slama on my initial roster, but at 26 players, someone had to get the boot. With Fien, Burton, Roenicke and Perkins filling the late inning roles, Slama was the obvious choice to be sent down. If someone struggles or is injured, I’d expect the Twins to finally give Slama a shot.
- Alex Burnett – Left off the roster because I wanted an extra man on the bench, look for Burnett to get the call if a player hits the DL or if the ‘pen needs a fresh arm.
- Anthony Swarzak – Similar to Burnett, Swarzak is off the roster simply because there’s too many players. Gibson basically takes his spot, but I think the Twins will defer to the guy with greater upside (Gibson) meaning Swarzak misses out.
- Tim Wood – From the independent league, Tim Wood is an interesting prospect. Spring training will determine how the Twins will use him, but I’d anticipate Wood to get a few looks as a starter.
- Samuel Deduno – 2012’s most fun pitcher to watch, Deduno will be on the short list of fill in candidates should a starter go down or pitch ineffectively. If he’s found a way to control his fastball, he’ll get a shot even sooner.
There it is, if the season started today, these are the 25 guys that I would estimate to compose the opening day roster for the Twins. It’s probably wrong, but it’s January – what else are we going to talk about?
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