The Surprising Rise of Pedro Florimon

Coming into 2013, fans and baseball experts alike held little hope for Pedro Florimon to develop into a viable Major League player. He was viewed more as a short term “filler” for a Twins team with a void at short stop. His great range and solid defense worthy of the cost of his anemic bat.

Most of these projections were based off of his call-up in the last quarter of the 2012 season. In 150 plate appearances in 2012, Florimon posted a triple slash of .219/.272/.307 with 5 doubles, 3 triples, 1 home run, 10 RBI, 3 stolen bases and 10 walks while striking out 30 times (once every 5 at bats). At 25 years old, many assumed his .272 OBP and relatively poor plate discipline were a reflection on the player he was going to be. The Twins, desperate for a middle infielder who could make the routine play on a consistent basis, would gladly trade the poor bat for his defensive boost.

Funny thing, in 2013 Pedro Florimon has decided to shake off those early season projections and develop into a solid hitter. In 126 plate appearances (basically 5 games short of the same length he posted in 2012) Florimon has a triple slash of: .255/.331/.364 with 6 doubles, 2 home runs, 17 RBI, 5 stolen bases and 25 strikeouts.

While he’s still averaging one strikeout for every five at bats, Florimon has improved in nearly every other aspect of his offensive game. The largest difference can be seen in his platoon splits. In 2012, Florimon, who is a switch hitter, posted a decent .239/.302/.307 against right handed starters, but a meager .184/.216/.306 against left handed starters. Essentially, when Florimon was moved to the right hand side of the plate, his meager offense diminished greatly.

In 2013, Florimon is hitting .261/.333/.380 against right handed starters, an improvement from last season, but he’s also boosted his lefty splits to .222/.318/.278. Those numbers are not much to write home about, but they’re still almost 40 points better than the year prior and are an early indicator that Florimon is improving at the plate. Everything is still marked with a “small sample size” asterisk, even his 150 PA in 2012 are not really enough to develop concrete opinions on his abilities at the plate. What data we do have, however, shows some form of improvement from Florimon. Whether that improvement is as dramatic as it looks right now remains to be seen, but given the Twins’ needs at short stop, any improvement has to be taken as a victory.

Defense had always been Flormion’s strong suit and the Twins were thrilled with his efforts in 2012. Early numbers had him as an average, if not slightly below average short stop, but the Twins felt he would grow into the position if given the opportunity. They were right, Florimon has improved his defense in 2013 by leaps and bounds.

In 2012, he posted a fielding percentage of .965 and committed 7 errors in 42 games at short stop. He finished 2012 with a UZR of -2.6, meaning his defensive range was slightly below average. This put him slightly below league average for all short stops.

In 2013, Florimon has improved his fielding percentage to .980 and only has 4 errors in 38 games at short stop. He’s also seen his UZR improve to 2.5, making him a slightly above average short stop.

In 2012, Florimon finished with a -.2 WAR, effectively making him slightly worse that “replacement level”. Essentially, he was roster filler, a spot holder until a real starter came along. That’s how many Twins fans saw Pedro coming into 2013 – a warm body who was supposed to make all of the routine plays and try not to ruin too many rallies at the plate.

2013 has seen Flormion post an early season WAR of 1.0 (meaning he is worth exactly one win above an average infielder for the Twins). The numbers are still early, but if he continues to play at this level, he could easily post a WAR closer to 2 or 3. For a Twins team that only saw positive WAR from Josh Willingham, Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer last season, this contribution is a massive improvement.

2013 has been an odd season for the Twins. They’ve played better then expected for much of the season before simply falling apart over the past two weeks against very good competition. They’re sill building for 2014-2015 and are merely hoping to “compete” in 2013. Players like Pedro Florimon developing into pleasant surprises will be the reason they are able to do just that.

The Time For Promotions / Demotions (Shuffling the chairs on the Titanic)

It’s time to shuffle the lineup. That much is apparent after the Twins dropped a 5-1 decision to the Red Sox yesterday, ending the home stand at 2-7, getting swept by Boston and losing 2 of 3 to the woeful White Sox.

The problems are exactly where we thought they would be – the starting rotation is struggling mightily. Yesterday, it was Pedro Hernandez’s turn to not quite go 5 innings in route to a loss. While Hernandez did keep the Red Sox off the scoreboard (only yielding three runs) he simply used too many pitches (107) and simply let innings extend, using more pitches than necessary to retire three batters.

The problem we didn’t expect, however, is an anemic offense. As of Monday, the Twins rank 22^nd in OPS, 26^th in ISO, 22^nd in WRC+ and 16^th in runs scored.

That’s ugly.

The fault lies in some of the expected sluggers struggling mightily at the plate. As of 5/20: the “heart” of the Twins offense (guys not named Mauer or Morneau) is putting up triple slashes like this:

Josh Willingham: .197/.359/.393
Ryan Doumit:  .220/.291/.373
Trevor Plouffe:  .252/.326/.433
Chris Parmelee:  .198/.278/.306
Oswaldo Arcia: .261/.327/.435
Aaron Hicks: .139/.237/.254

Two guys, Trevor Plouffe and Oswaldo Arcia are putting up good but not great numbers. With other producers around them, that’d be enough to keep the offense rolling. Unfortunately, THEY ARE the other producers. Everyone else, including Willingham and Doumit have been absolutely dreadful. Three times this weeked the Twins loaded the bases against the Red Sox, 12 total runners on base. Total number of runs scored? 0.

ZERO!

Not acceptable, and the Twins need to take some action to address it. Below, I’ll outline a few suggestions for roster tweaks to (hopefully) kickstart the offense.

1. Option Aaron Hicks and Chris Parmelee to AAA

·         Hicks has struggled mightily in the big leagues this season, posting a horrid triple slash and frequently looking lost at the plate. He’s been getting better…slowly, but he’s not improving enough to warrant him “working it out” at the bigs anymore. His defense has been surprisingly underwhelming as well. In fact, Fangraphs has Hicks as a below average defender in CF right now. Let him move to AAA, and adjust to hitting on that level. Let him work on reading the ball better in CF, let him get the experience he SHOULD have gotten prior to making the jump this season. Even better, if you let him stay in AAA for 20 games, you buy an extra year of eligibility before he’s a free agent – a year that will hopefully be much more productive than 2013.

·         Parmelee, by all accounts, has nothing left to prove in AAA. He’s hit the ball so well each time he’s played in Rochester that the Twins were essentially forced to find a spot for him on the big league roster. The problem is, Parmelee has seemingly forgotten how to hit this season. He’s getting beat by inside fastballs and is inexplicably unable to pull the trigger when he gets a pitch to hit. His defense in RF has been surprisingly solid – which is likely the only thing keeping him on the MLB roster at this point. Parmelee isn’t such an established veteran that he’s demotion proof. Send him down and (hopefully) let him rediscover his swing.

1. Promote Clete Thomas and Chris Colabello

·         While they’re not “prospects” any longer, both Clete Thomas and Chris Colabello have been hitting the ball very well in Rochester and deserve a promotion based on their achievements. Thomas is hitting .346/.446/.630 with 6 home runs and 17 RBI over 25 games. (Thomas missed a few games due to a leg injury earlier this month) Colabello, meanwhile is hitting .361/.419/.657 with 11 home runs and 34 RBI over 44 games. Thomas can slot in at CF and Colabello plays in RF at Rochester, so both defensive voids left by Hicks and Parmelee are filled.

I know it’s unusual to promote 29 year old career minor leaguers to boost and offense while you demote the youngsters – but the way that Hicks and Parmelee have struggled, alongside the strong play of Thomas and Colabello may force the Twins to be a little unusual.

Neither Thomas or Colabello are on the 40 man roster, so the Twins would have to make a few moves to facilitate the move. The first (and easiest) move will be to place Darin Mastroianni on the 60 day DL. Mastroianni has to undergo surgery for his ankle injury (suffered in spring training) and it’s thought that he won’t be available to mid July at the earliest. There’s no sense in clogging a spot on the 40 man for a player who is going to be out for at least the next two months.  Mastroianni to the 60 day DL, Clete Thomas to the 40 man. Move 1, done.

Adding Colabello will take a little more effort. The bottom of the Twins’ 40 man roster has some interesting players, many of which I don’t see the Twins letting go just yet.

Josmil Pinto, Chris Herrmann and Drew Butera are all on the 40 man – it’s unusal that a team has 5 (Mauer & Doumit) catchers on their 40 man roster but the Twins feel like they have talent in each of those players (or at least a tradeable asset).

Pinto is coming on strong in New Britain and may even be in line for a promotion to Rochester this season. He’s safe. Butera has been injured, but has been rumored to be valued by many teams as a backup option. That means he has trade value – something the Twins would be foolish to let go for free. He’s likely safe. Herrmann has been struggling in Rochester, but he’s only 25 years old and plays two positions (C and OF) and the Twins feel he has potential to develop into a solid bat. He’s safe.

Daniel Santana is the only non MLB infielder on the 40 man, and the Twins view him as a potential starting short stop or at least a bench bat / utility player. He’s safe.

The non-MLB pitching list occupies a few places on the 40 man, but players like Kyle Gibson and Trevor May are the future of the rotation and are not going anywhere. Other players, such as Liam Hendriks, Caleb Thielbar, Michael Tonkin, BJ Hermsan and Cole Devries all figure to be pieces of future starting rotations or bullpens – they’re all safe.

There are two names on the list; Tyler Robertson and Tim Wood, who shouldn’t feel safe, however. Wood has been pretty poor in AAA since coming back from his shoulder injury suffered in spring training. His 8.47 ERA and lack of command could make the decision easy for the Twins front office. Robertson is a hard throwing lefty, but he’s been largely ineffective in a few shots at the major league level.

Finally, the outfield, where we find a once touted prospect – Joe Benson. Benson has struggled mightily in AAA this season, which is a shame because with a decent start to the year, he’d likely be in Minnesota right now. It’s hard to see the Twins bailing on one of their top prospects so early, especially when he’s only 24 – but Benson’s performance hasn’t made him safe by any stretch of the imagination.

My gut feeling is that Tim Wood gets released from the 40 man to facilitate a promotion of Colabello, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see Robertson or Benson cut loose either.

With the offense addressed, there are still a few moves that the Twins should make on the pitching side.

1. Demote Pedro Hernandez to AAA, recall Kyle Gibson

·         Hernandez has been good, but not great and his struggles to go beyond 5 innings have greatly hurt the bullpen. It’s time to get him some more seasoning in AAA while the youngster Gibson gets his first crack at major league batters. Gibson has looked very good in some starts this season, while getting knocked around in a few others. He may get knocked around in Minnesota a time or two, but I think it’s time the team finds out what they have in their former first round pick.

1. Mike Pelfrey to the DL with an “Injury”, recall Cole DeVries

·         Read Pedro Hernandez’s part above, and simply insert Pelfrey’s name in place of Pedro’s. It’s the same story for big Mike. He’s not pitching deep enough into games, he’s extending innings by nibbling around the zone and he keeps leaving the ball up. Send Pelfrey to the DL, have him work with the coaches then give him a few rehab starts in AAA. While he’s away, promote De Vries. If Cole succeeds in Pelfrey’s place, he stays up. If Pelfrey goes to AAA and continues to struggle, it’s time to cut him loose just like Jason Marquis.

1. Promote Caleb Thielbar…somehow

·         I’ll admit, I don’t have this plan fully finished yet. Thielbar is a pitch to contact lefty reliever who manages to strike out a little over 1 batter per inning (34 K’s in 26 innings this season). The Twins bullpen needs another lefty arm, as only Brian Duensing and Glen Perkins are southpaws in the ‘pen right now. The problem is, who do you send down? Not Duensing, Fien, Burton or Perkins. Roenicke has pitched well enough to keep his spot (and he’s out of options). Pressly cannot be sent down without offering him back to Boston – and he’s pitched well enough to keep his spot anyway. The only option I can see is to send Anthony Swarzak back to AAA. Roenicke can act as the right handed long reliever (while Duensing is the lefty) this would allow Gardy to use Thielbar as his lefty match-up guy and save Duensing for more inning to inning work. Swarzak hasn’t played so poorly he deserves a demotion, it’s simply a matter of two players holding the same job (Roenicke & Swarzak) and the need for greater utility in the ‘pen.

As always, I’ll add the caveat that these moves are merely the speculations of one fan with a blog. The Twins could make all of them, they could make none of them. The simple fact is this team is starting to show cracks and flaws. Hopefully the Twins choose to address these issue to keep the Twins on a winning (or .500 path) because if left unchecked, I fear the Twins will fall back into the deep hole they occupied in 2011 & 2012.

Pelfrey Problems

It was a nice plan, I’ll give Terry Ryan that much. Sign a few question marks out of free agency to fill a newly reconstructed rotation. Hope those question marks catch on – if they do, you’re a genius, if not, you’re not sunk by their contracts and are free to try again next year.

Unfortunately, it’s been the plan the Twins have been rolling out for the past several seasons, and as we’ve already seen, it doesn’t work.

This year, Kevin Correia hasn’t turned into the tire fire many fans feared he would. Even Vance Worley, whose early season numbers make things appear to be worse than they really are, has been a solid arm in the rotation. However, the reclamation project known as Mike Pelfrey has absolutely stunk.

Pelfrey took to the mound today against the White Sox and was promptly knocked around the field. Pelfrey’s line: 4 IP, 8H, 5R, 5ER, 2BB, 3SO doesn’t even fully show just how bad big Mike was throughout the game. Peflrey struggled to hit the zone with any consistency, and what did make its way to the zone ended up about thigh to belt high. Pelfrey’s velocity was down (90-92) and his location was up. For a sinkerball pitcher, that’s not good.

So far this season, Pelfrey’s FIP (Fielding independent pitching) is a grotesque 4.29 and his xFIP is 5.31. His 6.57 ERA indicates he’s actually had a bit of bad luck, but even if he lowers his ERA to the expected level, a 5.31 ERA isn’t going to be much to write home about either.

What the Twins thought they were getting with Pelfrey was a career 4.18 FIP / 4.52 xFIP pitcher with a BB/9 ratio of 3, K/9 ratio closer to 5 and a BABIP of .309. Instead, they’ve gotten 4.29 FIP, 5.31 xFIP and while his walks are down (2.3 / 9) so are his strikeouts (3.93 /9) and his BABIP has inflated to .356.

Obviously, Peflrey has had some issues with command, but he’s been able to keep those issues from turning into walks. So, if walks are hurting Pelfrey, what is? In short: velocity.

Pelfrey’s straight fastball has always registered at or around 92 MPH. This season, it’s down 2 MPH from 93 to 91, which might be the better explanation of why he’s suddenly become so hittable. Pitchfx shows Pelfrey throwing his sinker 67% of the time, meaning his bread and butter pitch is now not doing what it used to do for Pelfrey – drop in the zone quickly. 2 MPH might not sound like much, but when you’re already throwing in the low 90’s, 2 MPH can mean the difference between missing bats and letting batters square up.

I don’t think it’s a coincidence that Pelfrey’s best start, on the road against Cleveland, was the best velocity he’s had all year. The radar gun showed Pelfrey hitting 94 to 96 consistently. As such, the Indians really struggled to make any contact with the pitch. Since then, his velocity has fallen back to the 90-91 range, resulting in a much easier pitch to hit for the opposing team.

So, the question then is what do the Twins do with Peflrey? It’s assumed that by July or August, he could be back to 100% and throwing with the same velocity and control as he was pre-injury. Unfortunately, the Twins can’t keep throwing Pelfrey out there every five days and having him be lit up.

Cole De Vries is making his third rehab start in AAA this evening, and if he puts together another strong outing (as his first two were) I think he’s the short term solution to the Peflrey problem. The Twins won’t option Peflrey (because they can’t – he no longer has minor league options) nor will they DFA him, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Pelfrey was suddenly diagnosed with some form of inflammation or strain in his arm/elbow/shoulder and sent to the DL. That would allow Twins coaches to work with Pelfrey for awhile and would eventually allow him to “find his stuff” in the lower levels.

Kyle Gibson is nearing a major league call up, but he hasn’t been consistent in each start this season. As such, I don’t think we’ll see him on the mound in Minnesota until June or July. Samuel Deduno, darling of the WBC, has struggled with command in his AAA outings this season, and with him off the 40 man roster, I doubt the Twins will call him up until he can show better command of his pitches. That leaves just Cole De Vries as the challenger to Pelfrey’s spot. Unfortunately, it may be Pedro Hernandez that loses a spot in the rotation if / when De Vries is called up.

I hope the Twins stop throwing Pelfrey against the wall (or, more accurately, bats) to see if he sticks. I have serious reservations that they WILL stop doing so, however, especially without a slew of able replacements in the minors. IF Cole De Vries can put together another strong start, I look for him to make his next start in Minnesota. The question is, will the Twins make the right call and stop sending out Pelfrey?

Aaron Hicks Has His Breakout Moment

Hopefully you were able to watch the Twins beat the White Sox like a drum in a 10-3 victory last night, if not, you missed what became the Aaron Hicks breakout party. The young center fielder finally showed why fans and the Twins front office were so excited about him coming into the 2013 season as he clubbed two solo home runs and robbed Adam Dunn of a game tying home run in the 5^th.

To call Hicks’ first 6 weeks in the Majors “rough” would be an understatement. Through 31 games, Hicks’ triple slash is a dismal .152/.256/.286 and he has struck out 35 times in 121 plate appearances. The fact that Hicks’ 2 for 4, 2 home run outing only raised his average to .152 and his slugging percentage to .286 is a testament to just how badly Hicks had played to begin the season.

Hicks’ ended April with a triple slash of .113/.229/.127 with 26 strikeouts in 78 plate appearances. He looked lost at the plate for much of April; he struck out in just over 31% of his plate appearances due in large part to his inability to take the bat off of his shoulder.

In April, Hicks only swung at 22.91% of out of the zone pitches – a number that is actually pretty solid for a leadoff batter. (He is in the top 20 in all of baseball with that percentage). The drawback was that Hicks was only swinging at 53.89% of pitches IN the zone. His swing percentage for April was an absurdly low 37.27%. Hicks was simply taking too many hittable balls, falling behind in the count and then was at a disadvantage when the time came to work out of the hole.

Hicks began turning a corner in May, he has seen his O% drop to 19.79% while his Z% (In the zone) swings have increased to 74.57%. He’s making contact on 78.29% of all of his swings, relatively close to the 80% rate he posted in April. It’s clear the problem wasn’t bad swings, it was simply his inability to swing.

Over the past 14 days, Hicks has posted a triple slash of: .235/.316/.618. Even better, over the past 7 days, Hicks’ slash reads: .333/.412/.800 with 3 strikeouts and 2 walks. The numbers indicate that Hicks is starting to see the ball better and starting to do more with it.

It will be a big hill to climb for Hicks to bring his numbers back into respectable big league levels, but his recent performance seems to indicate he’s turning a corner. A big game like last night can only help boost his confidence and show him (as much as the fans) that he really is capable of hanging around the big leagues.

Almost as important as his offense breakout was Hicks’ robbery of Adam Dunn’s would be game tying home run in the 6^th inning. With a runner on, Dunn crushed a Josh Roenicke pitch to straight away center. Hicks measure the ball, timed his leap perfectly and plucked the ball from the top of the fence. There was a bit of drama, as Hicks forgot to show the ump he caught the ball right away leaving the fans on TV and Dick & Bert in the booth wondering what exactly happened – the only people who knew for sure were the fans in the outfield, who erupted in a cheer as Hicks plucked the ball from its flight path.

Hicks’ defense was one of the most talked about tools the young CF was brining to the big league club. His arm strength and range were supposed to make him the perfect blend of Denard Span and Ben Revere. Through the early part of the season, we had yet to see any of those defensive qualities develop. Hicks had been caught on more than one occasion misreading a fly ball or allowing a ball to drop in front of him instead of charging to make a play (akin to Ben Revere).

Through 31 games, Hicks’ UZR (Ultimate zone rating, the metric used to rate defensive players) is a -3.2, due in large part to several misreads on playable balls early in the year. (For comparison, Ben Revere’s UZR with the Twins last season was 14.5) Last night, Hicks not only read the ball perfectly off of Dunn’s bat, but he also showed the raw skills to bring back a well hit ball. If he continues to develop this skill and starts making the routine plays, alongside of a few spectacular ones, we’ll likely see Hicks’ UZR return to the positive side of the scale.

Last night’s breakout performance certainly does not mean the struggles are over for Hicks, as a rookie who had never even played in AAA, Hicks is going to struggle. However, last night’s great performance may finally be an indicator that Hicks is turning a corner and turning into the CF the Twins had hoped they were getting when they made him the starter out of spring training.

For one night at least, it was good to see the young man smiling and enjoying the game once again. After a bumpy start, you have to feel good about Aaron Hicks finally getting a break.

Minor League Update

The Minnesota Twins are off to a somewhat surprising 13-14 start this season and have largely played at or even slightly above the expectations that many fans and experts had for them. At this point in 2012, the team was 7-20 and the season was essentially over.

With the team floundering so early in 2012, the front office decided to make a few more roster moves than normal. They promoted Scott Diamond from the minors on May 8^th, Darin Mastroianni on May 10^th while DFA-ing Matt Maloney and optioning Danny Valencia on the all in the same day as Mastroianni’s promotion.

If you go back to the archives of this blog, you’ll see I was calling for Diamond and Mastroianni’s promotions and Maloney’s demotion (along with Jeff Gray). I admittedly didn’t see the Valencia move coming. My point with those promotions was simple, these players are carving up the minors and the big league boys are struggling. Let’s make a move.

With the 2013 Twins playing much better baseball and very few players struggling mightily, I don’t think we’ll see any big roster moves to speak of in the near future. That being said, let’s look over each of the Twins’ minor league affiliates and pick out the players who could be seeing a promotion in the near future.

Low A: Cedar Rapids Kernels

20-8, 1^st Place

Promotion Worthy:

Byron Buxton(OF): Last year’s #2 overall pick has been destroying the low A competition so far this season. He’s batting an absurd .378/.492/.663 with 5 HR, 24 RBI and 12 stolen bases in just 27 games. The 18 year old is much too talented for this level of competition and will likely see a promotion to high A Fort Myers later this month or by June at the latest.

Jorge Polanco(2B): While’s Polanco’s numbers are not as nasty as Buxton’s his triple slash of : .339/.378/.495 is impressive for a young 2B. He’s played well enough that he’ll earn a promotion when the Fort Myer’s crowd gets promoted (more on that in a minute).

Jose Berrios(SP): Another one of the top picks from the Twins’ 2012 draft, Berrios is quickly proving that he’s much better than the Midwest League competition. The 18 year old flame thrower boasts a 2.51 ERA with an impressive 21 strikeouts over 3 starts. It’s a small sample size, and he’ll likely be given at least half the year in low A to develop, but he’s too talented to be here all year. Look for a July or August promotion to Fort Meyers.

The Kernels are LOADED with talent right now and there are a multitude of players who could see promotions this season. I’ve highlighted only 3, but there are at least 3 others; Tyler Duffey (SP), Adam Walker (OF), Mason Melatokis (RP) who I could see being promoted this year as well.

High A: Fort Meyers Miracle

23-6, 1^st Place

Promotion Worthy:

Miguel Sano(3B): Buxton’s breakout start has been overshadowed by the OTHER future star for the Twins – Miguel Sano. Sano has a ridiculous slash of .385/.456/.761 with 10 HR and 30 RBI in 29 games. Let me point out that the Florida State League REPRESSES stats – IE batters typically put up their worst numbers in this league’s large ball parks. If these are Sano’s worst numbers…whoa buddy! Like Buxton, Sano is simply playing too well to only advance one level per year. Look for him in New Britain by June.

Eddie Rosario(2B): Rosario would be the top prospect in many team’s farm system. Fans would be following him intently and not-so-patiently, awaiting for his promotion to the big league club and his shot to stardom. Unfortunately for Rosario, the Twins aren’t most big league clubs and the talented youngster is often forgotten under the names of Sano and Buxton. Rosario’s slash of .339/.371/.521 speaks for itself, however. Rosario will likely be promoted with Sano sometime in June to AA. (That’s what is helping Polanco be promoted in Cedar Rapids by June).

DJ Baxendale(SP): Another 2012 draft pick, Baxendale is a flame throwing prospect that the Twins are trying to convert into a starter. His 2012 debut saw him make 17 appearances, while posting a microscopic .96 ERA. He was rewarded by jumping to high A in 2013, to which he’s responded by allowing his ERA to double…all the way to 1.84. Baxendale has 25 strikeouts over 29.1 innings of work and has only walked 6 batters. If he keeps this up, he’s not long for Fort Myers. The Twins seem to be willing to promote their college arms faster than usual over the past few seasons – a September call-up to the big league team would be totally unexpected in Baxendale continues to carve up opponents.

Like Cedar Rapids, Fort Myers is simply stacked with talent. Other players to watch out for mid season promotions include: Matt Koch (C), Kennys Vargas (1B), Cole Johnson (RP), Taylor Rogers (SP) and Zach Jones (RP).

AA:  New Britain Rock Cats

15-15, 3^rd Place

Promotion Worthy:

Josmil Pinto(C): While New Britain isn’t as stacked as the two lower levels, it does have some surprising talent on the roster, including 24 year old catcher, Josmil Pinto. Pinto’s put up great numbers in 29 games this season, posting a slash of: .325/.408/.518 while hitting 5 HR and 25 RBI. Pinto’s been a longtime member of the Twins’ farm system (signed in 2006) and had never really swung the bat well. It’s starting to look like he’s figured that part of his game out and with sustained success could see a promotion to AAA Rochester by July with a big league September call-up not out of the question. The Twins need catching depth that can also hit, as Ryan Doumit will not be around for the next youth movement. With continued success, Pinto has the chance to fill that role.

Alex Meyer(SP): What New Britain lacks in batting talent, it more than makes up for in pitching depth. Meyer, the player the Twins received for longtime CF Denard Span, has looked every bit the top tier talent the Twins had hoped he’d be. Meyer has started 6 games in 2013, and has posted a 3-1 record with a 3.31 ERA and 40 strikeouts over 32.2 innings pitched. Meyer has things he needs to work on, but he’s not as far from Minnesota as some fans may think. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Meyer finish 2013 in Rochester with a chance to win a rotation spot in 2014’s spring training.

Trevor May(SP): The OTHER top tier pitcher the Twins acquired this offseason when they traded their OTHER CF, Trevor May has been just as good as Meyer in the early season. May is 1-1 with a 3.90 ERA in 32.1 innings this season. May has tabbed 27 strikeouts, but has walked 18. His control issues were the knock on May coming into this season and for the most part, he’s been able to keep the ball in the zone. I look for May and Meyer to follow each other through the levels of the Twins’ system. Look for May to finish 2013 in Rochester, and have a shot at the big league rotation in 2014.

Logan Darnell(SP): Darnell has been overshadowed by Meyer and May in New Britain, but only because of their buzz worthy acquisitions this offseason. Statistically, Darnell has actually been better than both Meyer and May so far this season. Darnell is 3-1 with a 2.16 ERA in 33.1 innings. He’s stuck out 27 and only walked 14. Darnell ahs been in the Twins system for the past 3 seasons, slowly working his way up the ladder. His strong start could see him promoted to Rochester by July or August and he may be given a call up in September when the roster expands.

New Britain isn’t as exciting as Cedar Rapids or Fort Myers…yet. When Sano, Rosario and other make the jump, look for the Rock Cats to become a whole lot more interesting. Even when they lose Meyer, May or Darnell to promotions, they’ll likely gain Baxendale, Rogers and other hard throwing talented players to fill out their rotation.

AAA: Rochester Red Wings

12-18, 5^th Place

Promotion Worthy: 

Clete Thomas (OF): I can’t believe I’m writing this, as we supposedly saw everything Clete Thomas had to offer in Minnesota last season. He strikes out too much to make his power and decent defense worth keeping on a big league roster – or so we thought. Thomas has excelled in AAA this year, hitting .365/.453/.662 with 6 HR and 16 RBI in 74 plate appearances. Yes, Thomas has struck out 19 times, but that’s the type of player he is (aggressive). His strikeout numbers are down and his power numbers are up – the only think keeping him off the big league roster is the fact the Twins won’t give up on Aaron Hicks (a correct decision) and Wilkin Ramirez has proven to be solid enough on the bench so far. That said, the first injury or Ramirez slump will likely see Clete get one more shot with the big boys.

Chris Colabello (1B): I really thought the Twins would use Colabello as their bench bat coming into 2013, but they instead opted for Wilkin Ramirez who gave them a bit more defensive flexibility. Colabello’s slash of .330/.386/.559 is certainly impressive, but he’s blocked by Justin Morneau, Ryan Doumit and to some extent, Oswaldo Arcia (as he can DH). With other catching depth available, Doumit’s slump could see him sent to the DL for some make believe malady – but there isn’t any other catching depth available, meaning the guy who has regularly been the DH will continue to DH. Sorry Chris. Except for injury or a Morneau trade, I can’t see Colabello being called up any time soon.

Kyle Gibson (SP): Gibson had a chance to make the rotation out of spring training, but was just shaky enough that the Twins opted to get him some more seasoning. His 4.26 ERA and 1-4 record don’t due him proper justice – Gibson has pitched very well in Rochester over his past few starts. In 31.2 innings of work, Gibson has struck out 27 and walked only 9. His last start (May 3) was one of his worst, so Gibson clearly needs to work on consistency, but he’s got the talent to be a solid #4 starter in the big leagues. The first rotation arm to flounder likely is replaced by Kyle Gibson.

Rochester is void of big time young talent, a reflection on how poor the farm system was for the Twins over the past few years. The youth movement is coming, however, and the Red Wings will likely see some great talent make quick stops in Rochester before the year is over. Samuel Deduno, who was just added to the Red Wings roster last week, will likely be promoted to Minnesota by June and Liam Hendriks, who started the year in the bigs, could see another promotion if a long reliever (Swarzak) were to go down with injury. Other than those two, there’s little to be excited about in AAA right now.

As you move up the ladder, the teams get less and less talented. What’s that mean for the Twins? There’s little in the way of immediate help available should the team start to lose games in bunches. Outside of one or two hot bats, AAA has nothing that would improve the big league club right now. AA has pitching talent that may be a bit too green to use yet and low and high A have the offensive talent, but they need at least one more good year of seasoning before they make the jump. The Twins’ farm system is a great representation of the past few years – barren (AAA) with a few fringe prospects (AA) but now an infusion of talent (AA pitching, A offense) has their farm looking as formidable as it was in the early 2000’s.