The Time For Promotions / Demotions (Shuffling the chairs on the Titanic)

It’s time to shuffle the lineup. That much is apparent after the Twins dropped a 5-1 decision to the Red Sox yesterday, ending the home stand at 2-7, getting swept by Boston and losing 2 of 3 to the woeful White Sox.

The problems are exactly where we thought they would be – the starting rotation is struggling mightily. Yesterday, it was Pedro Hernandez’s turn to not quite go 5 innings in route to a loss. While Hernandez did keep the Red Sox off the scoreboard (only yielding three runs) he simply used too many pitches (107) and simply let innings extend, using more pitches than necessary to retire three batters.

The problem we didn’t expect, however, is an anemic offense. As of Monday, the Twins rank 22^nd in OPS, 26^th in ISO, 22^nd in WRC+ and 16^th in runs scored.

That’s ugly.

The fault lies in some of the expected sluggers struggling mightily at the plate. As of 5/20: the “heart” of the Twins offense (guys not named Mauer or Morneau) is putting up triple slashes like this:

Josh Willingham: .197/.359/.393
Ryan Doumit:  .220/.291/.373
Trevor Plouffe:  .252/.326/.433
Chris Parmelee:  .198/.278/.306
Oswaldo Arcia: .261/.327/.435
Aaron Hicks: .139/.237/.254

Two guys, Trevor Plouffe and Oswaldo Arcia are putting up good but not great numbers. With other producers around them, that’d be enough to keep the offense rolling. Unfortunately, THEY ARE the other producers. Everyone else, including Willingham and Doumit have been absolutely dreadful. Three times this weeked the Twins loaded the bases against the Red Sox, 12 total runners on base. Total number of runs scored? 0.

ZERO!

Not acceptable, and the Twins need to take some action to address it. Below, I’ll outline a few suggestions for roster tweaks to (hopefully) kickstart the offense.

1. Option Aaron Hicks and Chris Parmelee to AAA

·         Hicks has struggled mightily in the big leagues this season, posting a horrid triple slash and frequently looking lost at the plate. He’s been getting better…slowly, but he’s not improving enough to warrant him “working it out” at the bigs anymore. His defense has been surprisingly underwhelming as well. In fact, Fangraphs has Hicks as a below average defender in CF right now. Let him move to AAA, and adjust to hitting on that level. Let him work on reading the ball better in CF, let him get the experience he SHOULD have gotten prior to making the jump this season. Even better, if you let him stay in AAA for 20 games, you buy an extra year of eligibility before he’s a free agent – a year that will hopefully be much more productive than 2013.

·         Parmelee, by all accounts, has nothing left to prove in AAA. He’s hit the ball so well each time he’s played in Rochester that the Twins were essentially forced to find a spot for him on the big league roster. The problem is, Parmelee has seemingly forgotten how to hit this season. He’s getting beat by inside fastballs and is inexplicably unable to pull the trigger when he gets a pitch to hit. His defense in RF has been surprisingly solid – which is likely the only thing keeping him on the MLB roster at this point. Parmelee isn’t such an established veteran that he’s demotion proof. Send him down and (hopefully) let him rediscover his swing.

1. Promote Clete Thomas and Chris Colabello

·         While they’re not “prospects” any longer, both Clete Thomas and Chris Colabello have been hitting the ball very well in Rochester and deserve a promotion based on their achievements. Thomas is hitting .346/.446/.630 with 6 home runs and 17 RBI over 25 games. (Thomas missed a few games due to a leg injury earlier this month) Colabello, meanwhile is hitting .361/.419/.657 with 11 home runs and 34 RBI over 44 games. Thomas can slot in at CF and Colabello plays in RF at Rochester, so both defensive voids left by Hicks and Parmelee are filled.

I know it’s unusual to promote 29 year old career minor leaguers to boost and offense while you demote the youngsters – but the way that Hicks and Parmelee have struggled, alongside the strong play of Thomas and Colabello may force the Twins to be a little unusual.

Neither Thomas or Colabello are on the 40 man roster, so the Twins would have to make a few moves to facilitate the move. The first (and easiest) move will be to place Darin Mastroianni on the 60 day DL. Mastroianni has to undergo surgery for his ankle injury (suffered in spring training) and it’s thought that he won’t be available to mid July at the earliest. There’s no sense in clogging a spot on the 40 man for a player who is going to be out for at least the next two months.  Mastroianni to the 60 day DL, Clete Thomas to the 40 man. Move 1, done.

Adding Colabello will take a little more effort. The bottom of the Twins’ 40 man roster has some interesting players, many of which I don’t see the Twins letting go just yet.

Josmil Pinto, Chris Herrmann and Drew Butera are all on the 40 man – it’s unusal that a team has 5 (Mauer & Doumit) catchers on their 40 man roster but the Twins feel like they have talent in each of those players (or at least a tradeable asset).

Pinto is coming on strong in New Britain and may even be in line for a promotion to Rochester this season. He’s safe. Butera has been injured, but has been rumored to be valued by many teams as a backup option. That means he has trade value – something the Twins would be foolish to let go for free. He’s likely safe. Herrmann has been struggling in Rochester, but he’s only 25 years old and plays two positions (C and OF) and the Twins feel he has potential to develop into a solid bat. He’s safe.

Daniel Santana is the only non MLB infielder on the 40 man, and the Twins view him as a potential starting short stop or at least a bench bat / utility player. He’s safe.

The non-MLB pitching list occupies a few places on the 40 man, but players like Kyle Gibson and Trevor May are the future of the rotation and are not going anywhere. Other players, such as Liam Hendriks, Caleb Thielbar, Michael Tonkin, BJ Hermsan and Cole Devries all figure to be pieces of future starting rotations or bullpens – they’re all safe.

There are two names on the list; Tyler Robertson and Tim Wood, who shouldn’t feel safe, however. Wood has been pretty poor in AAA since coming back from his shoulder injury suffered in spring training. His 8.47 ERA and lack of command could make the decision easy for the Twins front office. Robertson is a hard throwing lefty, but he’s been largely ineffective in a few shots at the major league level.

Finally, the outfield, where we find a once touted prospect – Joe Benson. Benson has struggled mightily in AAA this season, which is a shame because with a decent start to the year, he’d likely be in Minnesota right now. It’s hard to see the Twins bailing on one of their top prospects so early, especially when he’s only 24 – but Benson’s performance hasn’t made him safe by any stretch of the imagination.

My gut feeling is that Tim Wood gets released from the 40 man to facilitate a promotion of Colabello, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see Robertson or Benson cut loose either.

With the offense addressed, there are still a few moves that the Twins should make on the pitching side.

1. Demote Pedro Hernandez to AAA, recall Kyle Gibson

·         Hernandez has been good, but not great and his struggles to go beyond 5 innings have greatly hurt the bullpen. It’s time to get him some more seasoning in AAA while the youngster Gibson gets his first crack at major league batters. Gibson has looked very good in some starts this season, while getting knocked around in a few others. He may get knocked around in Minnesota a time or two, but I think it’s time the team finds out what they have in their former first round pick.

1. Mike Pelfrey to the DL with an “Injury”, recall Cole DeVries

·         Read Pedro Hernandez’s part above, and simply insert Pelfrey’s name in place of Pedro’s. It’s the same story for big Mike. He’s not pitching deep enough into games, he’s extending innings by nibbling around the zone and he keeps leaving the ball up. Send Pelfrey to the DL, have him work with the coaches then give him a few rehab starts in AAA. While he’s away, promote De Vries. If Cole succeeds in Pelfrey’s place, he stays up. If Pelfrey goes to AAA and continues to struggle, it’s time to cut him loose just like Jason Marquis.

1. Promote Caleb Thielbar…somehow

·         I’ll admit, I don’t have this plan fully finished yet. Thielbar is a pitch to contact lefty reliever who manages to strike out a little over 1 batter per inning (34 K’s in 26 innings this season). The Twins bullpen needs another lefty arm, as only Brian Duensing and Glen Perkins are southpaws in the ‘pen right now. The problem is, who do you send down? Not Duensing, Fien, Burton or Perkins. Roenicke has pitched well enough to keep his spot (and he’s out of options). Pressly cannot be sent down without offering him back to Boston – and he’s pitched well enough to keep his spot anyway. The only option I can see is to send Anthony Swarzak back to AAA. Roenicke can act as the right handed long reliever (while Duensing is the lefty) this would allow Gardy to use Thielbar as his lefty match-up guy and save Duensing for more inning to inning work. Swarzak hasn’t played so poorly he deserves a demotion, it’s simply a matter of two players holding the same job (Roenicke & Swarzak) and the need for greater utility in the ‘pen.

As always, I’ll add the caveat that these moves are merely the speculations of one fan with a blog. The Twins could make all of them, they could make none of them. The simple fact is this team is starting to show cracks and flaws. Hopefully the Twins choose to address these issue to keep the Twins on a winning (or .500 path) because if left unchecked, I fear the Twins will fall back into the deep hole they occupied in 2011 & 2012.