Pelfrey Problems

It was a nice plan, I’ll give Terry Ryan that much. Sign a few question marks out of free agency to fill a newly reconstructed rotation. Hope those question marks catch on – if they do, you’re a genius, if not, you’re not sunk by their contracts and are free to try again next year.

Unfortunately, it’s been the plan the Twins have been rolling out for the past several seasons, and as we’ve already seen, it doesn’t work.

This year, Kevin Correia hasn’t turned into the tire fire many fans feared he would. Even Vance Worley, whose early season numbers make things appear to be worse than they really are, has been a solid arm in the rotation. However, the reclamation project known as Mike Pelfrey has absolutely stunk.

Pelfrey took to the mound today against the White Sox and was promptly knocked around the field. Pelfrey’s line: 4 IP, 8H, 5R, 5ER, 2BB, 3SO doesn’t even fully show just how bad big Mike was throughout the game. Peflrey struggled to hit the zone with any consistency, and what did make its way to the zone ended up about thigh to belt high. Pelfrey’s velocity was down (90-92) and his location was up. For a sinkerball pitcher, that’s not good.

So far this season, Pelfrey’s FIP (Fielding independent pitching) is a grotesque 4.29 and his xFIP is 5.31. His 6.57 ERA indicates he’s actually had a bit of bad luck, but even if he lowers his ERA to the expected level, a 5.31 ERA isn’t going to be much to write home about either.

What the Twins thought they were getting with Pelfrey was a career 4.18 FIP / 4.52 xFIP pitcher with a BB/9 ratio of 3, K/9 ratio closer to 5 and a BABIP of .309. Instead, they’ve gotten 4.29 FIP, 5.31 xFIP and while his walks are down (2.3 / 9) so are his strikeouts (3.93 /9) and his BABIP has inflated to .356.

Obviously, Peflrey has had some issues with command, but he’s been able to keep those issues from turning into walks. So, if walks are hurting Pelfrey, what is? In short: velocity.

Pelfrey’s straight fastball has always registered at or around 92 MPH. This season, it’s down 2 MPH from 93 to 91, which might be the better explanation of why he’s suddenly become so hittable. Pitchfx shows Pelfrey throwing his sinker 67% of the time, meaning his bread and butter pitch is now not doing what it used to do for Pelfrey – drop in the zone quickly. 2 MPH might not sound like much, but when you’re already throwing in the low 90’s, 2 MPH can mean the difference between missing bats and letting batters square up.

I don’t think it’s a coincidence that Pelfrey’s best start, on the road against Cleveland, was the best velocity he’s had all year. The radar gun showed Pelfrey hitting 94 to 96 consistently. As such, the Indians really struggled to make any contact with the pitch. Since then, his velocity has fallen back to the 90-91 range, resulting in a much easier pitch to hit for the opposing team.

So, the question then is what do the Twins do with Peflrey? It’s assumed that by July or August, he could be back to 100% and throwing with the same velocity and control as he was pre-injury. Unfortunately, the Twins can’t keep throwing Pelfrey out there every five days and having him be lit up.

Cole De Vries is making his third rehab start in AAA this evening, and if he puts together another strong outing (as his first two were) I think he’s the short term solution to the Peflrey problem. The Twins won’t option Peflrey (because they can’t – he no longer has minor league options) nor will they DFA him, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Pelfrey was suddenly diagnosed with some form of inflammation or strain in his arm/elbow/shoulder and sent to the DL. That would allow Twins coaches to work with Pelfrey for awhile and would eventually allow him to “find his stuff” in the lower levels.

Kyle Gibson is nearing a major league call up, but he hasn’t been consistent in each start this season. As such, I don’t think we’ll see him on the mound in Minnesota until June or July. Samuel Deduno, darling of the WBC, has struggled with command in his AAA outings this season, and with him off the 40 man roster, I doubt the Twins will call him up until he can show better command of his pitches. That leaves just Cole De Vries as the challenger to Pelfrey’s spot. Unfortunately, it may be Pedro Hernandez that loses a spot in the rotation if / when De Vries is called up.

I hope the Twins stop throwing Pelfrey against the wall (or, more accurately, bats) to see if he sticks. I have serious reservations that they WILL stop doing so, however, especially without a slew of able replacements in the minors. IF Cole De Vries can put together another strong start, I look for him to make his next start in Minnesota. The question is, will the Twins make the right call and stop sending out Pelfrey?