The 2013 MLB draft is this Thursday, and the Minnesota Twins have the unfortunate “honor” of picking 4th in what is widely considered to be a 3 elite player draft. The three names listed frequently as “elite” prospects in this year’s draft are Stanford pitcher Mark Appel, Oklahoma pitcher Jonathan Gray, and San Diego third baseman Kris Bryant.
You may recall that Mark Appel was drafted last year by the Pirates with the 8th overall pick. There were talks that Appel would be difficult to sign, which caused him to fall from the top 3 picks all the way to Pittsburgh, who thought they may be able to get Appel to sign. The Pirates offered Appel $3.8MM, nearly $1MM over the ‘slot’ for the 8th pick. Appel refused, gambling that he would be able to improve his draft position with another strong outing at Stanford. Appel turned in a 10-4 record this season, posting an ERA of 2.12 with a K/BB ratio of 130/23. This performance again has Appel at the top of draft boards and some of the question marks surrounding him last season (can he dominate, can he be a true ace?) are no longer there. The top two slots in the draft have $7.7MM and 6.8MM to spend respectively . In essence, his gamble from a year ago likely netted him another $3MM to $4MM. In hindsight, not signing was obviously a wise decision.
Jonathan Gray has burst onto the scene this season on the strength of a dominate year at Oklahoma. Prior to this year, Gray was considered a midlevel starting option, likely a back end starter or potential long reliever. Gray vastly improved two of his pitches, his fastball (which can touch 100 MPH) and his slider, which has improved in both velocity and break from a year ago. These improvements saw Gray transform from marginal prospect to elite prospect as he posted a 9-2 record with 127 strikeouts for Oklahoma this season.
Kris Bryant, much like Jonathan Gray, burst onto the elite list this season as he transformed his abilities. Bryant evolved into a power hitting machine during his senior season at San Diego, launching 30 home runs (one of which reportedly traveled 500 feet). Prior to this season, Bryant had hit 24 home runs in the previous two seasons combined. Bryant has excellent plate coverage and a good eye, evidenced by his collegiate best 62 walks this season. The 6-5 215 pound righty is built to play third base, but some teams are looking at him as a potential corner outfielder or first baseman.
If the draft were to play out ideally on paper, it likely would fall something like this:
- Houston Astros – Jonathan Gray
- Chicago Cubs – Mark Appel
- Colorado Rockies – Kris Bryant
Leaving the Twins standing at number 4 with a lot of “potential stars” but no true “elite” talent left on the board.
Funny thing about playing things out on paper, however, it’s rarely accurate.
Last season, the Astros famously took Carlos Correa over Byron Buxton because they knew they could sign Correa under slot and use the money later in the draft. For a team that is as devoid of talent as the Astros, this is a good strategy. Get a player who many thought of as a top 5 prospect for a better value, and use the money saved to pick up another talented player in the 2ndand 3rd rounds who normally wouldn’t sign for such low slot money. It allows a team to pick up 2 to 3 “first round” talent players instead of just 1. The obvious downside is you have to pass on once in a generation talent, as Byron Buxton appears to be.
This draft may end up playing out very similar to last season’s. Once again, the Astros are holding the number one pick and, once again, they are reportedly looking to take a top 5 talent at the first pick in hopes of signing him for under slot and using the money elsewhere. The Astros are looking towards North Carolina third baseman Colin Moran. Moran has a solid bat with good power, hits for average and has played solid defense. He’s considered to be a top 5 talent, but not as a “elite” as Kris Bryant.
If the Astros follow last years draft plan and take Moran, that makes things VERY interesting for the Twins at 4. That means one of the three elite prospects will still be there for the taking at number 4.
IF the Astros take Moran, the draft would likely break like this:
- Houston Astros – Colin Moran
- Chicago Cubs – Mark Appel
- Colorado Rockies – Chris Bryant
- Minnesota Twins – Jonathan Gray
The Twins would be foolish not to pounce on Gray if he falls to 4. He’s a college pitcher who could be just a year away from the big leagues. (Look at Kevin Gausman – last year’s #4 and Michael Wacha – last year’s #19 as examples of college pitchers who can make big league debuts one year later). With a potential 2014 staff of Alex Meyer, Trevor May, Jonathan Gray, Kyle Gibson and Scott Diamond, the Twins would suddenly become a much different team.
It’s hard to predict what other teams will do, however, and it’s very likely that the Twins will not have the fortune of seeing one of the big three fall to the 4th pick. In that case, the Twins do still have some interesting players to choose from.
Kohl Stewart has been the name most consistently tied to the Twins during this draft. He’s a 6-3, 195 pound right hander who is ranked as the top high school pitching prospect in the country. He has a “80” fastball (on the 20-80 scouting scale) with a very good slider and a solid, mid 80’s curveball. Scouts have said his stuff is just as good as Mark Appel’s or Jonathan Gray’s and he has a higher ceiling because of his young age. The downside with Stewart is he is already committed to play football for Texas A&M, meaning if the Twins were to draft him there is a chance he would decline to sign in order to play college football. If the Twins do manage to sign him, it would likely be for the full allotment of the slot (necessary to ‘coax’ Stewart from going to college). As a high school pitcher, Stewart would be several years away from helping the big league club, but it never hurts to have one of the highest potential pitchers in your farm system.
Reese McGuire is a left handed high school catcher with great defensive ability behind the plate but an average bat. The Twins have been linked to McGuire because of the way they value a defensive catcher as a “premium” and the fact that drafting McGuire at 4 would allow them to sign him under slot and use the savings on their 2nd and 3rdround picks. For a rebuilding team that’s very close to returning to competitive play, drafting someone like McGuire may be hard to get by the fans. At his worst, McGuire is projected to be Drew Butera, at his best, scouts have talked Joe Mauer potential. He would be several years away from the big leagues, and if he does turn into the next Joe Mauer, he’d be ready in 2016 or 2017, about the time Mauer’s contract would be expiring. In that best case scenario, the Twins would look like geniuses, but that exact scenario is highly unlikely to play out.
There are other players the Twins could certainly take at number 4, but I don’t see any of them being a realistic possibility. If one of the big three doesn’t fall to the Twins, look for them to take Kohl Stewart. Pending some unforeseen development, the Twins could also take Reese McGuire, but I’d put the odds pretty low for that particular pick to happen.
Either way, we’ll know Thursday night who the newest Minnesota Twins are and how Terry Ryan and company have decided to further supplement one of the best farm systems in baseball.
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