Trevor Plouffe, Franchise Cornerstone?

Trevor Plouffe returned to the Twin from a long 22 day stint on the disabled list on Saturday, and celebrated his arrival (and birthday) with a 3 for 3 game, including an important two run home run launched to left in the 4^th inning. Plouffe’s arrival meant that the weak hitting duo of Eduardo Escobar and Jamey Carroll could finally be returned to the bench, their full time starting stints proving only that neither has a major league caliber bat to play everyday.

Plouffe is one of the more interesting players on this Twins team as he is neither an established veteran who could be flipped at the trade deadline, nor is he a young prospect full of potential, just waiting for a chance to play. Plouffe has his chance to play, since Danny Valencia’s early season demotion in 2012, Plouffe has been the Twins’ everyday third baseman.

Plouffe’s bat warranted the efforts to move him to a new position. Plouffe is a career .236/.303/.429 hitter with an OPS of .731 and 39 career home runs. On the surface, those numbers don’t scream “franchise cornerstone” – but if you dig deeper, or more accurately, focus on the last two seasons – you’ll see an interesting trend. Plouffe finished 2012 with a .235/.301/.455 triple slash with an OPS of .756, he hit the second highest home runs on the team with 24. Factor in the fact he wasn’t a full time starter until May and he missed a large portion of the middle of the season with a thumb injury (and that subsequent thumb injury cost him much of his power during the final month of the season) and you can imagine what those final numbers COULD have looked like.

In 2013, Plouffe is actually posting better numbers than 2012. His current triple slash of .264/.344/.457 with an OPS of .801 and 5 home runs is third on the team overall. Plouffe’s bat is developing and maturing and he appears to be realizing the power potential the Twins have hoped he would. A young, still developing power hitter with 30 home runs per year potential? Why exactly isn’t Plouffe a franchise cornerstone?

In short, his defense.

In 2012, Plouffe was thrown into the third base job and was effectively learning on the fly. As you might expect, he struggled defensively, posting a UZR of -10.8 (that’s effectively the worst 3B in the AL). This season, his UZR has improved to -5.0, while that’s a considerable improvement, it does illustrate that Plouffe probably doesn’t belong at third base.

So, what do the Twins do with Plouffe? First, we need to establish that 3B isn’t going to be his home for much longer. Super prospect Miguel Sano, currently playing in AA, is likely making his first appearance at Target Field this September and will be manning the hot corner for the foreseeable future a short while into 2014.

So, third base isn’t in the long term plans and shortstop and second base have been ruled out from previous forays into each position. That leaves, 1B and the corner outfield spots and the obvious DH role.

Currently, the outfield is packed with Oswaldo Arcia, Josh Willingham, Chris Parmelee and (inexplicably) Ryan Doumit all sharing time in the corner spots. First base is manned by Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer while the DH is primarily Ryan Doumit’s home but he lets Oswaldo Arcia and Morneau use the place from time to time.

Assuming the Twins don’t begin an incredible hot streak and suddenly find themselves in contention by the end of July, it’s likely they’ll be deadline sellers. Josh Willingham, Justin Morneau and Ryan Doumit are all names that could be discussed at the deadline, and I’d wager two of them (at least) will be gone by August 1^st.

For the sake of argument, let’s say Doumit and Morneau  are dealt. This allows the Twins to shift Oswaldo Arcia over to LF full time, while cementing Josh Willingham into a full time DH role. 1B is open for the heir apparent, Chris Parmelee, but I don’t think the Twins will go that way. Parmelee has been a very solid defensive RF for the Twins and without another stellar player available to fill Target Field’s tricky corner, I think the Twins leave him there. That means Trevor Plouffe has a new home, and it’s at 1B.

Moving to 1B allows the Twins to “hide” Plouffe’s less than stellar defense (he’ll still have to make plays, but 1B is markedly easier than 3B) while keeping his potent bat in the lineup. The Twins could make the same move by simply flipping Plouffe and Parmelee, but for the reasons I listed prior, I think that Plouffe becomes the team’s 1B option for the next 3 to 4 years, until Travis Harrison or another power hitter comes up from the minors.

Trevor Plouffe is a developing talent, albeit a late bloomer as his power potential has really blossomed over the past two seasons. The Twins will have options with Plouffe coming into next season and I think his bat warrants moving him to a new position, rather than cutting him loose. With the youth movement coming, the Twins could use another veteran bat (in addition to Mauer) with some pop to help lead the team. I think Trevor Plouffe fits that role perfectly.