Twins Prospect Rundown

It’s been a quiet month on my blog because it’s been a quiet month for the Minnesota Twins. The Yankees landed Masahiro Tanaka, to the surprise of no one, while the Brewers grabbed Matt Garza – to everyone’s surprise.

With the big fish Tanaka off the market, the remaining free agents are likely to find homes soon and there are still some guy out there (Arroyo, Santana, Cruz) that have a connection to the Twins and could end up in Minnesota before spring training begins. When the ice begins to break and players begin to sign, we’ll discuss the moves the Twins made (or didn’t make) until then, let’s begin another spring tradition; prospect rankings.

MLB.com and Baseball Prospectus have debuted their 2014 prospect lists already this month and many more sites will be following shortly. I ran my own list (see it here) last year. I always grade my prospects a bit differently than the big sites. They like to weigh how close a prospect is making his debut in their rankings (the top of the list is usually AA & AAA heavy, while the low A guys are at the bottom). I like to look at talent and impact. I don’t care as much about how close you are to helping the big league club, I want to go on your talent RIGHT NOW plus POTENTIAL growth. Got it? Cool. Let’s list!

1. Byron Buxton (CF)

2013 Stats: .334/.424/.520, 12 HR, 77 RBI, 55 SB (Combined stats from A-, A+ ball)

Projected 2014 Level: AA New Britain

Projected MLB Debut: Late 2014 or Mid 2015

Byron Buxton is a one of a kind talent, that much became apparent after the 20 year old from Georgia finished his first full minor league season. He already shows great vision and discipline at the plate, which is impressive for a young player that many believed would struggle initially when he faced professional competition for the first time. That struggle never happened and Buxton is currently on the fast track to the big leagues, likely appearing in AA New Britain to start the season and making a big league debut within the next year if all goes well.

Buxton is nearly off the charts on the traditional scouting 20-80 scales. He’s a true 5 tool player that rates above average in bat (70), speed (70), defense (80), arm (70) and power (65). Even his WORST tool, power, is above average and many scouts think that will soon catch up with his other skills. The scariest part? Buxton believe he can (and will) get better. Buxton has been placed atop all of the MLB prospect lists, so it’s not much of a surprise that he comes out as the Twins best prospect.

2. Miguel Sano (3B)

2013 Stats: .280/.382/.610, 35 HR, 103 RBI (Combined stats from A+, AA ball)

Projected 2014 Level: AA New Britain before AAA Rochester

Projected MLB Debut: 2014 (Midseason)

In any other system in baseball, Miguel Sano would rank as the top prospect. In the Twins’ system, he’s number two and it’s not even that close of a race. That’s great news for the Twins, because their default #2 prospect is an absolute monster at the plate. His power gives him the ability to turn any pitch he can hit into a souvenir. He will generate some swings and misses, but his contact is actually improving and nothing to scoff at. Many scouts predict Sano will be able to hit for a respectable average while clobbering 40-50 home runs per season.

Sano’s defense has been his biggest question mark as the former short stop turned third baseman is a bit large for the position. His footwork is improving and he has the arm strength to make the tough throws across the diamond, however, so tales of Sano being moved from 3B seem a bit premature.

It’s likely the Twins give Sano a few weeks in AA before moving him to AAA in the first month or two of the season. I would then full expect Sano to make his debut by June or July in Minnesota. There’s little left for the mighty slugger to prove in the minors – it’s time for one of the Twins’ faces of the feature to hit the show.

3. Alex Meyer  (P)

2013 Stats: 104.1 IP, 3.02 ERA, 11 K/9,

2014 Projected Level: AAA Rochester

Projected MLB Debut: 2014 (Early)

Some fans in Minnesota cried foul when the Twins traded beloved CF Denard Span straight up for Alex Meyer, but their fears have since been quelled as Meyer has proven just how good he can be. Despite struggling with a shoulder injury through last season, Meyer still managed to throw 104 innings, featuring his mid 90’s fastball and sharp curve.

He’s the first wave of the changing mindset of the Twins when it comes to pitchers. Meyer is NOT a pitch to contact guy. He is, without question, a strikeout pitcher. Meyer is big league ready, but I think the Twins will give him a few starts in AAA to get in shape while they feel out the back end of their own rotation. So long as he’s healthy, there is no way Meyer doesn’t make his Twins debut this season.

4. Eddie Roasario (2B/OF)

2013 Stats: .293/.338/.494, 10 HR, 12 SB (Combined stats from A+, AA last season)

2014 Projected Level: AA (Midseason) AAA (last two months)

Projected MLB Debut: 2015 (Midseason)

Rosario’s timetable is thrown off due to a drug suspension (recreational drug use, reportedly marijuana) that will cost him 50 games of the 2014 season. Without that suspension, Rosario would likely be making his Target Field debut around July of this season. Instead, he’ll likely begin 2014 in AA to work off the rust before moving to AAA to finish the year. There’s a chance he could be a September call up for the Twins this year, but I doubt the organization will make that move.

It’s a shame Rosario made this mistake, because the youngster has some great talent. The one time outfielder was in the process of being converted into a 2B (due to the organization’s lack of depth at the position) before Brian Dozier broke onto the scene in 2013. He’s since been shifted back to the OF, but still has the potential to play 2B, where his defense was improving quite nicely, according to scouts.

The real strength of Rosario’s game is his bat. Scouts believe he can hit for average in the bigs RIGHT now, as his bat speed and plate vision are that good. He’s lacking power, but that doesn’t mean he still can’t hit 10-15 home runs per season. He’s speedy enough to be a threat on the bases, but won’t lead the league in steals each season – all in all, Rosario has the potential to be a great piece to build a team around. He’ll get on base, has respectable power and the ability to play 2 positions above average defensively.

5. Kohl Stewart (P)

2013 Stats: 20 IP, 1.35 ERA, 10.5 K/9

2014 Projected Level: A- (Early) A+ (Late)

Projected MLB Debut: 2016

Stewart is our first long term project, but it’s going to be worth waiting for the Texas 19 year old to develop. His professional debut was cut short due to arm fatigue, but what little we saw was very impressive. Stewart features a mid 90’s fastball with lots of natural movement. He also throws a plus rated slider, solid curve and a changeup that has the potential to be a plus pitch as well.

Stewart is expected to grow into his frame, which will help increase his fastball speed into the upper 90’s. He needs to work on control, but scouts believe that is just a matter of working with the right pitching coaches to develop a routine to keep his mechanics consistent. He’ll likely see time in Cedar Rapids for most of 2014, but I would expect a late promotion to Fort Myers before the year is done. He’s still 2 years away, but the Twins have to be excited about the immense talent Stewart has shown so far.

6. Josmil Pinto (C)

2013 Stats: .342/.398/.566 (September MLB Stats)

2014 Projected Level: AAA / MLB

Projected MLB Debut: He debuted in 2013, but I’d say full time in 2014 (May)

Pinto barely qualifies as a prospect any more since he may break spring training on the big league roster, but his 84 plate appearances in September don’t cost him his rookie status, so they shouldn’t cost him his prospect ranking either.

Pinto had languished in the Twins system for 3 years before suddenly finding life in his bat in 2011. Since then, he has rocketed through the Twins system, posting great offensive numbers along the way. Pinto’s bat is his strong point, as he shows great vision at the plate and the ability to make solid contact with what he swings at. He has solid power (20 – 25 home runs per season likely). His one soft spot is defense, which is average or slightly below average. The Twins hope that coaching and practice will bring Pinto to a respectable level but even he stays below average defensively, his bat will earn him a spot in the lineup.

7. Jose Berrios (P)

2013 Stats: 103.2 IP, 3.99 ERA, 8.7 K/9

2014 Projected Level: A+ Fort Myers

Projected MLB Debut: 2015 (late) 2016

Berrios is a player many look over when listing the best in the Twins’ system, and that’s a mistake. The 19 year old from Puerto Rico has a much talent as nearly every other pitcher in the system. At 6’0” and 187, Berrios is a smaller pitcher, but that doesn’t cost him any velocity. He features a fastball that touches the high 90’s and can even hit triple digits on the radar gun. He has an assortment of secondary pitches including a curve and change up that will need some work, but could be potential plus pitches if he can master them.

Berrios is still rough around the edges, which will likely mean a slower path to the majors so he can develop better control and polish his secondary offerings. If he can do that, however, there’s very little stopping Berrios from being one of the best pitchers in the big leagues. He has that much talent. Even if he doesn’t pan out to be a starter, Berrios could potentially be one very difficult bullpen arm. Either way, Jose is a player Twins fans will want to keep an eye on in the coming years.

8. Stephen Gonsalves (P)

2013 Stats: 28 IP, .95 ERA, 12.4 K/9

2014 Projected Level: A- Cedar Rapids

Projected MLB Debut: 2016

I’ll admit I’m a bit higher on Gonsalves than other national outlets are, but that’s because I’m willing to see what he can become. What he is right now is a hard throwing left hander that profiles very similarly to Kohl Stewart, the 4^th overall pick in the 2013 draft. So why is Gonsalves often overlooked, especially given that he’s a lefty? He got into some trouble during his senior year in high school and was kicked off his team. There were concerns about his character and his drive before the draft and those concerns caused the promising lefty to fall into the fourth round.

The Twins believe they have the staff to keep Gonsalves on the right path and the coaches to help develop his raw talent into something more. When it comes to raw talent, Gonsalves has it in spades. He features a plus fastball, but also has solid secondary pitches that should improve with coaching. His professional debut was short, but Gonsalves exceled in the limited opportunity, earning a promotion from the Gulf Coast League to the Appalachian League after only 8 appearances. His makeup and skills are good enough that I believe he’ll start in Cedar Rapids in 2014. The Twins won’t rush him, but he could end the year in Fort Myers if he blows away the competition in the Midwest League.

Gonsalves reminds me of a left handed Kohl Stewart, so long as he can continue to turn his pure talent into pitching skill, he’ll be a bright star in the Twins rotation in 2 years.

9. Danny Santana (SS)

2013 Stats: .297/.333/.386, 2 HR, 45 RBI, 30 SB

2014 Projected Level: AAA Rochester

Projected MLB Debut: 2014 (Mid season)

Danny Santana has been on many Twins fans’ radar for the past several years. The organization has be devoid of any depth at SS since trading away Jason Bartlett and JJ Hardy – so a bright spot, any bright spot, is a welcome sign. Santana may be that bright spot. After a slow start to his professional career, Santana has taken off in the past two seasons, earning promotions each season. He finished 2013 in AA and will likely begin 2014 in AAA but is not that far now from taking his first cuts at Target Field.

Santana’s strength is his offense. He boasts solid contact and the ability to hit for a good average while limiting strikeouts. He doesn’t have much for power, but his speed makes him a threat to steal once he gets on base. The weak spot in Santana’s game is his defense. He committed 32 errors at SS in 2013, which is far too many for a defensive minded club like the Twins. Scouts have reported that Santana could reduce some of those errors by working on his footwork and not rushing his throws. Hopefully with a little more coaching and some time in AAA, Santana can figure out how to reduce some of his defensive miscues, because his bat is ready for the big leagues right now.

10. Jorge Polanco (2B/SS)

2013 Stats: .308/.362/.452, 5 HR, 78 RBI

2014 Projected Level: A+ Fort Myers / AA New Britain (Late)

Projected MBL Debut: 2015 (Late)

Hot on Santana’s heels is Jorge Polanco. Polanco has been in the Twins system since 2010, but he’s only 20 years old, so it’s not as if he’s a slow riser. Over the past two seasons, his offense has begun to develop nicely, culminating in a great stat line from Cedar Rapids in 2013. He’s above average defensively and scouts believe his range will improve as he improves his footwork.

Polanco doesn’t have much in the way of power and is simply average when it comes to speed, but the ability to hit for average and play defense in the middle infield is a welcome thing. He’s more likely to end up at 2B than SS, which hurts his value a little (that’s why others rank him around 12^th in the system) but there’s no reason to count him out of the SS race for now. I have Polanco making his debut in September of 2015 or the early portion of 2016. He’s got some time to develop, but the potential is there for Polanco to be a special player.

Rounding out my top 20:

11. Max Kepler (OF)
12. DJ Hicks (1B)
13. Lewis Thorpe (P)
14. Trevor May (P)
15. Felix Jorge (P)
16. Kennys Vargas (1B)
17. Travis Harrison (3B/1B)
18. Stuart Turner (C)
19. Ryan Eades (P)
20. Niko Goodrum (SS/2B)

I’ll readily admit I’m probably banking too highly on Gonalves’ potential and thus have him a bit too high. If I were to knock players for how close they are to being major league ready, I’d bump him out of the top 10 and Move Kepler into his spot.

All things considered, however, the Twins have one talented farm system. Goodrum and Eades could easily be top 10 guys in other systems and they struggled to make my top 20 list. Other players such as Daniel Bard, a talented starting pitching prospect, aren’t even on the list. That leads to great things for the Twins future and a reason for fans to be excited.

Do The Twins Need To Keep Shopping?

The Twins have had an active offseason so far, signing free agent pitchers Ricky Nolasco, Phil Hughes and resigning Mike Pelfrey. They’ve also added catcher Kurt Suzuki and traded catcher / designated hitter Ryan Doumit for left handed pitcher Sean Gilmartin. As I mentioned in my last post, they’ve also been linked to Bronson Arroyo and Matt Garza and there may or may not be interest in Stephen Drew. This uncharacteristic activity is a welcome sign from a Twins team that has languished to the bottom of the AL Central with 90+ losses in each of the last three seasons. Any additional moves would be quite the surprise, give the large amount of activity already completed from the Twins – but the rumors persist – the Twins are still shopping.

The question is, do they need to?

While it’s easy to say that a 90 loss team should acquire all the talent they can, there comes a point where talent acquisition doesn’t actually improve your current team. Have the Twins reached that point? Where should the Twins be focusing their last few signings – pitchers, infield, outfield depth? Let’s take a look at the roster as it stands on 1/6/2014 and figure out just where the Twins should place their attention.

Starting Pitchers:

Ricky Nolasco

Phil Hughes

Mike Pelfrey

Kevin Correia

Samuel Deduno / Scott Diamond / Vance Worley / Andrew Albers

Bullpen:

Anthony Swarzak

Brian Duensing

Ryan Pressly

Caleb Thielbar

Casey Fien

Jared Burton

Glen Perkins

Simply by adding Nolasco and Hughes, the Twins have made massive upgrades to their rotation for 2014. That being said, I think they could do a little more. With the rotation as it stands, the Twins are relying on Nolasco’s 2013 not being an aberration as well as relying on Phil Hughes to post better (IE non Yankee Stadium) numbers at Target Field AND relying on Mike Pelfrey looking like July / August 2013 Mike Pelfrey, not May / June 2013 Mike Pelfrey.

That’s a lot of conditions that could potentially swing a good rotation to a horrendous rotation (also, to be fair, they could swing to a superb rotation). The Twins would be wise to shore up their bets by adding one more arm. Depending on how bold they feel, that arm could be Matt Garza or Bronson Arroyo – but either addition would be an upgrade. Adding Garza /Arroyo would bump one of the fringe starters (Diamond, Worley, Deduno, Albers) to the bullpen. Given the present build of the bullpen, I’d wager that Diamond would be the leading candidate to move into a long reliever role. This move would also slide Kevin Correia or Mike Pelfrey into the #5 starter role, which they could then give up to Alex Meyer, when he proves he’s ready for the show.

By adding one more starter, the Twins could have a July rotation that looks something like this:

Starters:

Garza

Nolasco

Hughes

Peflrey

Meyer

Bullpen:

Diamond

Correia

Swarzak / Duensing

Fien

Thielbar

Burton

Perkins

Factor in the minor league arms the Twins added to the 40 man roster (Ibarra, Darnell, Johnson, Tonkin) plus Kyle Gibson and Trevor May and you’ve got a lot of depth in the pitching staff. One more arm makes that depth even better.

Moving on to the positions players, the move of Joe Mauer to first base created a bit of a problem for the Twins. Chris Parmelee and Chris Colabello, who were likely going to timeshare 1B in 2014 prior to Mauer’s move, are now the odd men out while Josmil Pinto – who would have likely split time with Mauer in 2014, is now a potential starter. The opening day roster currently looks something like this:

C: Josmil Pinto / Kurt Suzuki

1B: Joe Mauer

2B: Brian Dozier

SS: Pedro Florimon

3B: Trevor Plouffe

LF: Josh Willingham

CF: Alex Presley

RF: Oswaldo Arcia

DH: Jason Kubel

Bench:

Pinto / Suzuki, Eduardo Escobar (INF), Parmelee/Colabello (1B/OF),

That’s a thin bench and a bit of a thin roster. Even if you assume that Miguel Sano will be in Minneapolis by July the roster does little to improve (My projected July lineup would look like this):

C: Pinto

1B: Mauer

2B: Dozier

SS: Florimon

3B: Sano

LF: Arcia

CF: Hicks

RF: Plouffe

DH: Willingham

Bench: Suzuki, Parmelee, Presley, Escobar, Kubel

Better depth, but still missing one more bat before I can really feel confident in this offense. The problem the Twins will face (if you can call it that) is that they have a deluge of talent making its way to the big leagues in the next year to two years. By 2015, Byron Buxton will take over in CF and Eddie Rosario could be manning LF with Aaron Hicks in RF and Oswaldo Arcia DH-ing.

2015 Projected Lineup:

C: Pinto

1B: Mauer

2B: Dozier

SS: Florimon / Santana

3B: Sano

LF: Rosario

CF: Buxton

RF: Hicks

DH: Arcia

Bench: Suzuki / Fryer, Florimon, Plouffe, Presley

If EVERYTHING breaks in the Twins’ favor, their lineup in 2015 will be stacked with young talent. That makes free agent acquisition for the here and now tough to do. You can’t go out and sign a bit bat like Nelson Cruz because he’ll be a large (potentially unnecessary) contract in as little as one year. Instead, the Twins should look to the lesser known free agents and pluck up a super utility player to bolster their bench.

Who, you ask? Well, someone like Roger Bernadina, Sam Fuld or Brennan Boesch. I’ll grant you, none of those names will excite the fan base, but they’ll add a bit of much needed depth to the Twins bench. Adding Fuld, who can play all 3 outfield positions, gives the Twins more roster flexibility for 2014, but wouldn’t clog up the roster for 2015 (or even midseason 2014, if the free agent fails to deliver).

Of that crew, I’d shoot for Bernadina – who had a down year in 2013, but has the potential for base stealing and has posted respectable OBP over his career. At worst, he’s a pinch running, base stealer who can fill in defensively (Mastroianni’s role) at best, he’s viable 4^th outfielder who can give the starters a day off during the week.

From my perspective, the Twins do have a little more shopping to do. They would do well by adding one more free agent starting pitcher and would be wise to look for outfield / utility player depth to help Ron Gardenhire’s bench a little more. The Twins have done a lot of shopping for the 2014 season, and they’re likely to improve because of them – but with two more additions, this team could COMPETE in 2014. Now, wouldn’t that be fun?

Twins Back In On Garza?

Recently, ESPN 1500’s Darren Wolfson reported that the Twins had returned to free agent pitcher Matt Garza and were once again “kicking the tires” on the former Twin prospect. This came as quite a surprise as reports had Garza’s value climbing into the 5 year, $80-$85M range, a price that (theoretically) forced the Twins out of the conversation.

Wolfson says the sticking point for the Twins is length. They’re willing to pay Garza top dollar, but they’re apparently hesitant to pony up top dollar over a five year contract. The Twins prefer Garza over free agents Ubaldo Jimenez and Ervin Santana because Garza does not have draft pick compensation attached to him (meaning he would not cost the Twins their second round pick if signed, like the aforementioned would).

Recent speculation is that Garza’s value (and suitors) has dropped due to the posting of Japanese ace Mashario Tanaka. Teams that were big on Garza (New York, Boston, Arizona) have shifted their priority to Tanaka, leaving Garza and the other top free agents (Arroyo, Jimenez, Santana) to sit and wait until the Tanaka sweepstakes end. If this is the case, it’s a brilliant play by the Twins to make a push right now.

Terry Ryan and the Twins can offer Garza a 3 year deal, with a vesting 4^th year (if incentives are hit) at a bit higher AAV than expected (say, $16M per year) and can sell this contract as a guarantee. Who knows how the market will shake out after Tanaka is posted? Say the Yankees sign Tanaka; that takes them out of the running for the other free agents; thereby lowering the price all around (agents cannot use the Yankee’s seemingly endless budget to inflate the price of their guys). With other top line starters out there, who knows what pitcher will be the last man standing when the signings are all done? Take 3 years, $48M now and don’t worry about finding a home before spring training. It’s a brilliant play by Terry Ryan and the Twins front office and it’s one that I hope works out.

Fans tend to think of Garza as an ace type player, but his numbers really point to a solid #2 starter on most staffs. Over the past four seasons, Garza has posted a WAR of 3.2, 2.9, 1.6, 4.9, 1.1 while throwing for 184, 203, 204, 198 and 101 innings. His xFIP averages 3.92 and his FIP (4 year average of 3.97) shows that he’s been consistent and that his numbers are not influenced too heavily by luck.  He’s not in the class of Kershaw, Hernandez, Verlander, but he is certainly not a bad player either.

Let’s say the Twins do sign Garza and let’s also assume that the team wants to keep one of the Diamond, Albers, Worley trio to be the team’s 5^th starter (all three are out of options and would have to be exposed to waivers if they were removed from the 25 man roster). That creates a bit of a logjam at the starting pitcher position (never thought you’d hear that about a Twins team, right?)

With Garza, the projected 2014 starting staff would be:

1.       Garza

2.       Nolasco

3.       Hughes

4.       Pelfrey

5.       Diamond / Worley / Albers

6.       Correia

Not to mention Alex Meyer will be big league ready by June or July (if not earlier). That’s potentially 7 guys vying for 5 spots.

The Diamond / Worley / Albers (throw in Deduno if you’d like) issue doesn’t worry me. Let the best one win a spot out of spring training and if they cannot cut it, replace them with Alex Meyer. Corriea’s spot is actually easily solvable as well. With his relatively cheap contract and consistent performance, the Twins shouldn’t struggle to flip Correia to another team to further bolster their own roster. In fact, I think the Twins could package an extra bat (Parmelee, Colabello) with Correia to pick up a better piece for the team.

A cursory glance over the rest of MLB has placed the Orioles on my radar as the perfect trade target. They need one more reliable starter for their rotation and they have always been looking for a DH / bench bat to help out their offense. The Twins have those pieces to spare, and are looking for starting pitching depth (the Orioles have that in the minor leagues) or starting shortstop…maybe one like the Twins traded away a few years ago (Okay, maybe THE one the Twins traded away a few years ago). Yes, JJ Hardy.

The Twins would likely have to kick in one more player to get the Orioles to agree to trade Hardy, but luckily the Orioles are searching for a closer to fill in for Jim Johnson (after the Grant Balfour deal fell apart). Can I interest you in Caleb Theilbar, Brian Duensing, Jared Burton or Ryan Pressly?

My hypothetical trade would be as follows:

Orioles acquire:

Kevin Correia

Chris Parmelee

Jared Burton

Twins acquire:

JJ Hardy

The O’s get a starter, a bench / DH bat (who should hit well in Camden Yards) and a bullpen arm that could easily convert to a closer. While the Twins get a shortstop with some pop in his bat – simply by clearing out some extra parts.

In short, I’m glad to hear the Twins are back in on Matt Garza as I think it will not only help the rotation become even more competitive, but it will likely force the Twins to make additional moves to improve the club. (I’m salivating over a 2014 lineup featuring Hardy)

CF: Alex Presley

2B: Brian Dozier

1B: Joe Mauer

LF: Josh Willingham

C: Josmil Pinto

RF: Oswaldo Arica 

SS: JJ Hardy

3B: Miguel Sano 

DH: Trevor Plouffe

That looks like a lot of fun (and a lot of power). Here’s hoping we see it happen in 2014.