The Twins have had an active offseason so far, signing free agent pitchers Ricky Nolasco, Phil Hughes and resigning Mike Pelfrey. They’ve also added catcher Kurt Suzuki and traded catcher / designated hitter Ryan Doumit for left handed pitcher Sean Gilmartin. As I mentioned in my last post, they’ve also been linked to Bronson Arroyo and Matt Garza and there may or may not be interest in Stephen Drew. This uncharacteristic activity is a welcome sign from a Twins team that has languished to the bottom of the AL Central with 90+ losses in each of the last three seasons. Any additional moves would be quite the surprise, give the large amount of activity already completed from the Twins – but the rumors persist – the Twins are still shopping.
The question is, do they need to?
While it’s easy to say that a 90 loss team should acquire all the talent they can, there comes a point where talent acquisition doesn’t actually improve your current team. Have the Twins reached that point? Where should the Twins be focusing their last few signings – pitchers, infield, outfield depth? Let’s take a look at the roster as it stands on 1/6/2014 and figure out just where the Twins should place their attention.
Starting Pitchers:
Ricky Nolasco
Phil Hughes
Mike Pelfrey
Kevin Correia
Samuel Deduno / Scott Diamond / Vance Worley / Andrew Albers
Bullpen:
Anthony Swarzak
Brian Duensing
Ryan Pressly
Caleb Thielbar
Casey Fien
Jared Burton
Glen Perkins
Simply by adding Nolasco and Hughes, the Twins have made massive upgrades to their rotation for 2014. That being said, I think they could do a little more. With the rotation as it stands, the Twins are relying on Nolasco’s 2013 not being an aberration as well as relying on Phil Hughes to post better (IE non Yankee Stadium) numbers at Target Field AND relying on Mike Pelfrey looking like July / August 2013 Mike Pelfrey, not May / June 2013 Mike Pelfrey.
That’s a lot of conditions that could potentially swing a good rotation to a horrendous rotation (also, to be fair, they could swing to a superb rotation). The Twins would be wise to shore up their bets by adding one more arm. Depending on how bold they feel, that arm could be Matt Garza or Bronson Arroyo – but either addition would be an upgrade. Adding Garza /Arroyo would bump one of the fringe starters (Diamond, Worley, Deduno, Albers) to the bullpen. Given the present build of the bullpen, I’d wager that Diamond would be the leading candidate to move into a long reliever role. This move would also slide Kevin Correia or Mike Pelfrey into the #5 starter role, which they could then give up to Alex Meyer, when he proves he’s ready for the show.
By adding one more starter, the Twins could have a July rotation that looks something like this:
Starters:
Garza
Nolasco
Hughes
Peflrey
Meyer
Bullpen:
Diamond
Correia
Swarzak / Duensing
Fien
Thielbar
Burton
Perkins
Factor in the minor league arms the Twins added to the 40 man roster (Ibarra, Darnell, Johnson, Tonkin) plus Kyle Gibson and Trevor May and you’ve got a lot of depth in the pitching staff. One more arm makes that depth even better.
Moving on to the positions players, the move of Joe Mauer to first base created a bit of a problem for the Twins. Chris Parmelee and Chris Colabello, who were likely going to timeshare 1B in 2014 prior to Mauer’s move, are now the odd men out while Josmil Pinto – who would have likely split time with Mauer in 2014, is now a potential starter. The opening day roster currently looks something like this:
C: Josmil Pinto / Kurt Suzuki
1B: Joe Mauer
2B: Brian Dozier
SS: Pedro Florimon
3B: Trevor Plouffe
LF: Josh Willingham
CF: Alex Presley
RF: Oswaldo Arcia
DH: Jason Kubel
Bench:
Pinto / Suzuki, Eduardo Escobar (INF), Parmelee/Colabello (1B/OF),
That’s a thin bench and a bit of a thin roster. Even if you assume that Miguel Sano will be in Minneapolis by July the roster does little to improve (My projected July lineup would look like this):
C: Pinto
1B: Mauer
2B: Dozier
SS: Florimon
3B: Sano
LF: Arcia
CF: Hicks
RF: Plouffe
DH: Willingham
Bench: Suzuki, Parmelee, Presley, Escobar, Kubel
Better depth, but still missing one more bat before I can really feel confident in this offense. The problem the Twins will face (if you can call it that) is that they have a deluge of talent making its way to the big leagues in the next year to two years. By 2015, Byron Buxton will take over in CF and Eddie Rosario could be manning LF with Aaron Hicks in RF and Oswaldo Arcia DH-ing.
2015 Projected Lineup:
C: Pinto
1B: Mauer
2B: Dozier
SS: Florimon / Santana
3B: Sano
LF: Rosario
CF: Buxton
RF: Hicks
DH: Arcia
Bench: Suzuki / Fryer, Florimon, Plouffe, Presley
If EVERYTHING breaks in the Twins’ favor, their lineup in 2015 will be stacked with young talent. That makes free agent acquisition for the here and now tough to do. You can’t go out and sign a bit bat like Nelson Cruz because he’ll be a large (potentially unnecessary) contract in as little as one year. Instead, the Twins should look to the lesser known free agents and pluck up a super utility player to bolster their bench.
Who, you ask? Well, someone like Roger Bernadina, Sam Fuld or Brennan Boesch. I’ll grant you, none of those names will excite the fan base, but they’ll add a bit of much needed depth to the Twins bench. Adding Fuld, who can play all 3 outfield positions, gives the Twins more roster flexibility for 2014, but wouldn’t clog up the roster for 2015 (or even midseason 2014, if the free agent fails to deliver).
Of that crew, I’d shoot for Bernadina – who had a down year in 2013, but has the potential for base stealing and has posted respectable OBP over his career. At worst, he’s a pinch running, base stealer who can fill in defensively (Mastroianni’s role) at best, he’s viable 4th outfielder who can give the starters a day off during the week.
From my perspective, the Twins do have a little more shopping to do. They would do well by adding one more free agent starting pitcher and would be wise to look for outfield / utility player depth to help Ron Gardenhire’s bench a little more. The Twins have done a lot of shopping for the 2014 season, and they’re likely to improve because of them – but with two more additions, this team could COMPETE in 2014. Now, wouldn’t that be fun?
No comments:
Post a Comment