Recently, ESPN 1500’s Darren Wolfson reported that the Twins had returned to free agent pitcher Matt Garza and were once again “kicking the tires” on the former Twin prospect. This came as quite a surprise as reports had Garza’s value climbing into the 5 year, $80-$85M range, a price that (theoretically) forced the Twins out of the conversation.
Wolfson says the sticking point for the Twins is length. They’re willing to pay Garza top dollar, but they’re apparently hesitant to pony up top dollar over a five year contract. The Twins prefer Garza over free agents Ubaldo Jimenez and Ervin Santana because Garza does not have draft pick compensation attached to him (meaning he would not cost the Twins their second round pick if signed, like the aforementioned would).
Recent speculation is that Garza’s value (and suitors) has dropped due to the posting of Japanese ace Mashario Tanaka. Teams that were big on Garza (New York, Boston, Arizona) have shifted their priority to Tanaka, leaving Garza and the other top free agents (Arroyo, Jimenez, Santana) to sit and wait until the Tanaka sweepstakes end. If this is the case, it’s a brilliant play by the Twins to make a push right now.
Terry Ryan and the Twins can offer Garza a 3 year deal, with a vesting 4th year (if incentives are hit) at a bit higher AAV than expected (say, $16M per year) and can sell this contract as a guarantee. Who knows how the market will shake out after Tanaka is posted? Say the Yankees sign Tanaka; that takes them out of the running for the other free agents; thereby lowering the price all around (agents cannot use the Yankee’s seemingly endless budget to inflate the price of their guys). With other top line starters out there, who knows what pitcher will be the last man standing when the signings are all done? Take 3 years, $48M now and don’t worry about finding a home before spring training. It’s a brilliant play by Terry Ryan and the Twins front office and it’s one that I hope works out.
Fans tend to think of Garza as an ace type player, but his numbers really point to a solid #2 starter on most staffs. Over the past four seasons, Garza has posted a WAR of 3.2, 2.9, 1.6, 4.9, 1.1 while throwing for 184, 203, 204, 198 and 101 innings. His xFIP averages 3.92 and his FIP (4 year average of 3.97) shows that he’s been consistent and that his numbers are not influenced too heavily by luck. He’s not in the class of Kershaw, Hernandez, Verlander, but he is certainly not a bad player either.
Let’s say the Twins do sign Garza and let’s also assume that the team wants to keep one of the Diamond, Albers, Worley trio to be the team’s 5th starter (all three are out of options and would have to be exposed to waivers if they were removed from the 25 man roster). That creates a bit of a logjam at the starting pitcher position (never thought you’d hear that about a Twins team, right?)
With Garza, the projected 2014 starting staff would be:
1. Garza
2. Nolasco
3. Hughes
4. Pelfrey
5. Diamond / Worley / Albers
6. Correia
Not to mention Alex Meyer will be big league ready by June or July (if not earlier). That’s potentially 7 guys vying for 5 spots.
The Diamond / Worley / Albers (throw in Deduno if you’d like) issue doesn’t worry me. Let the best one win a spot out of spring training and if they cannot cut it, replace them with Alex Meyer. Corriea’s spot is actually easily solvable as well. With his relatively cheap contract and consistent performance, the Twins shouldn’t struggle to flip Correia to another team to further bolster their own roster. In fact, I think the Twins could package an extra bat (Parmelee, Colabello) with Correia to pick up a better piece for the team.
A cursory glance over the rest of MLB has placed the Orioles on my radar as the perfect trade target. They need one more reliable starter for their rotation and they have always been looking for a DH / bench bat to help out their offense. The Twins have those pieces to spare, and are looking for starting pitching depth (the Orioles have that in the minor leagues) or starting shortstop…maybe one like the Twins traded away a few years ago (Okay, maybe THE one the Twins traded away a few years ago). Yes, JJ Hardy.
The Twins would likely have to kick in one more player to get the Orioles to agree to trade Hardy, but luckily the Orioles are searching for a closer to fill in for Jim Johnson (after the Grant Balfour deal fell apart). Can I interest you in Caleb Theilbar, Brian Duensing, Jared Burton or Ryan Pressly?
My hypothetical trade would be as follows:
Orioles acquire:
Kevin Correia
Chris Parmelee
Jared Burton
Twins acquire:
JJ Hardy
The O’s get a starter, a bench / DH bat (who should hit well in Camden Yards) and a bullpen arm that could easily convert to a closer. While the Twins get a shortstop with some pop in his bat – simply by clearing out some extra parts.
In short, I’m glad to hear the Twins are back in on Matt Garza as I think it will not only help the rotation become even more competitive, but it will likely force the Twins to make additional moves to improve the club. (I’m salivating over a 2014 lineup featuring Hardy)
CF: Alex Presley
2B: Brian Dozier
1B: Joe Mauer
LF: Josh Willingham
C: Josmil Pinto
RF: Oswaldo Arica
SS: JJ Hardy
3B: Miguel Sano
DH: Trevor Plouffe
That looks like a lot of fun (and a lot of power). Here’s hoping we see it happen in 2014.
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