Hope Springs Eternal

It’s tough to be an optimistic fan of a losing team. Trust me; over the past three seasons of Minnesota Twins baseball, I’ve been tried through and through. Scott Baker’s injury, Morneau’s injuries, Tsuyoshi Nishioka, Joe Mauer’s bilateral leg weakness, trading JJ Hardy away, giving handfuls of starts to PJ Walters, Nick Blackburn,  Jason Marquis, Vance Worley, Andrew Albers…It’s enough to make even the most positive fan begin to feel a bit…negative.

Yet, I keep coming back. Each season, typically immediately following the World Series, I begin scanning free agent lists, making my own “game plan” for fixing the team. I scour rumor boards, looking for windows into other team’s thinking. I read every prospect ranking website I can find and try to figure out when the Twins next youth movement is on their way.

By spring training, I’m in full blown fan mode. The moves the Twins made this year are going to be the thing that pushes them over the top. In 2012 I was sure the signings of Ryan Doumit, Jamey Carroll and Josh Willingham would be the catalysts to push the offense over the top. 2013, I was convinced that Mike Pelfrey and Kevin Correia could eat enough innings to help keep the offense in the game. Before this season, Ricky Nolasco and Phil Hughes were the sure fire additions to the starting staff, guaranteeing the team was going to add 10 wins to last year’s totals…AT LEAST.

Were all of these proclamations realistic? Certainly not. Optimistic? You betcha. That is just the type of fan I am. I cannot bring myself to give up on my team, no matter the circumstances. I’ll always be there, hoping for the next big break, cheering for the AAA player to make a big league debut, hoping against all odds that our pitch to contact pitcher can generate a key strikeout when needed. It’s who I am as a fan.

Yet, even the most optimist Twins fans can’t help but let negativity creep back in. Following 99, 96 and 96 losses, my optimistic hopes for 2014 were “81 wins”.  I’ve even soured on some players. I’ve caught myself assuming the 3^rd out each time Pedro Florimon comes to the plate. I expect very little when Mike Pelfrey takes to the mound and I’m always waiting on the bullpen to give away any lead the team may have.

2014 has been a bipolar season for the Twins so far. They brought out negativity early by giving away the second game of the season (Glen Perkins looked pedestrian and Trevor Plouffe made a horrible error to lose a game the team should have easily won). Then they teased fans with a powerful offensive outing against Cleveland, taking 2 of 3. Of course, they followed that with some trademark “last 3 seasons” baseball against the A’s – but absolutely crushed the Royals over the last 3 game series. It’s been a yo-yo effect for every fan and even though the team is merely 6-6 and still surrounded by many question marks, I think it was the exact start I needed to see to bring back the optimism.

If but for a few bad bounces, the Twins could arguably be 9-3. They should have left Chicago 2-1, and if not for a Mike Pelfrey breakdown in Cleveland, they would have swept the Indians to bring their record to 5-1. They had the A’s against the rope in the middle game of the series – meaning they could have entered Friday’s series opener with the Royals at 6-3. Sweeping the Royals would have put them at 9-3 and tied for one of the best starts in baseball. In fact, there have only been 3 losses in which the Twins were absolutely outplayed. Opening day vs. Chris Sale, then the bookend games of the A’s series. 12 games in and the Twins have only been soundly defeated in 3 of them? That’s something to be positive about.

Here’s something else to be positive about:

Kyle Gibson, Ricky Nolasco and Phil Hughes look like they’re going to be upgrades from any of the past three seasons. Mike Pelfrey and Kevin Correia are who they are – I don’t think the optimistic fans can spin them into top tier starters, but they may turn out a gem every now and again (see: Correia’s 8 inning “I don’t know how he did it, but that was pretty good” start yesterday). Not to mention Trevor May and Alex Meyer are knocking on the big league door from Rochester (and both have looked great so far this season).

The offense isn’t living and dying by one player. Instead, Trevor Plouffe, Jason Kubel, Chris Colabello, Brian Dozier, Kurt Suzuki, Josmil Pinto and Aaron Hicks have all helped this team perform past expectations offensively (as of 4/14/14, the Twins were 3^rd in baseball in runs scored). While it’s expected that most of the aforementioned players will cool slightly from their hot start, the fact that the team is getting contributions from different sources each night bodes well. We’re no longer banking on a Willingham homer or a timely Mauer double to carry the offense. Nearly the entire starting nine can drive in a run in a key spot (sorry Pedro).

I will freely admit that the Twins are not likely contenders for the 2014 World Series. But I don’t believe the team is destined for the cellar either. In fact, I’m cautiously optimistic that the Twins will finish 2014 somewhere in the middle of the pack. 78-84, 3^rd place in the AL Central seems about right to me.

Call it a pipe dream, or farfetched aspirations, but I can see a world where everything breaks right for the Twins this year and they surprise everyone. Nolasco pitches like he did Saturday, Gibson continues his strong start and Hughes shows that he can put a quality start together, start to finish. Pelfrey is flipped to the ‘pen to make room for Alex Meyer, while Kevin Correia is sent off midseason to make room for Trevor May.

Meanwhile, the offense continues to operate on the “next man up” mentality, and is not lead by one player, but instead driven by different bats each night. These factors all lead to the Twins doing something they’ve never done before – win. They keep winning through June and July, they keep pace in August and before you know it, they’re hot on the Tiger’s heels in September. By season’s end, the notoriously poor finishing Tigers choke away the AL Central lead and the Twins take the division.

Their starting staff dominates the Rays in the first round, before rousing performances from Kyle Gibson and Alex Meyer help them squeak out a series win against the A’s in the ALCS. They’re overmatched by the NL champion Dodgers, but they’re used to being underdogs. 

Nolasco hangs tough with Kershaw, but the Dodgers squeak one out. Phil Hughes sticks with Grienke pitch for pitch, but the Dodgers head to Minnesota with the 2-0 series lead. Alex Meyer sends the fans home happy with a complete game shut out in game three, while Trevor May and Samuel Deduno combine for a 3 hit effort in game four to tie the series. Kyle Gibson starts game five against Clayton Kershaw, who insists on starting on short rest to help the Dodgers take the series lead again. It backfires. The Twins bats pounce on the 200 million dollar man, sending him to the showers early and giving the Twins a 3-2 advantage heading back to LA. There’s where Nolasco faces his former team, outdueling their number 2 starter and propelling the Twins to the top.

The Minnesota Twins are 2014 World Series champions.

Hey, a fan can dream – right?

Opening Day Candidates (Rookies)

The Twins are off to a solid start through five games of spring training (four wins). Their pitching has been solid so far, with the starters all showing good two to three inning outings and the relievers (at least the ones expected to make the team) doing a great job filling in an inning at a time. We’ve seen great performances from Brian Dozier (5 for 7, 4 doubles), Trevor Plouffe (defensively) and Josmil Pinto (1.667 OPS) and while that’s a welcome sign, they’re all established players with the big league club and all have likely earned a majority of the time at their positions in 2014.

The far more interesting story lies in examining the fringe players. The guys who are just off the casual fan’s radar – but whose early season performance (if it continues) could earn them a trip north come opening day. So, who just may surprise fans by making the roster come March 31^st? I have a few candidates:

Danny Santana (SS):

Spring stats: (10 AB)  .400 AVG, 1.200 OPS, 4 RBI (2 triples, 1 Stolen Base)

How he’ll make the roster: Santana’s strongest qualities have always been his bat and his speed. He’s posted AVGs of .286 and .297 in the past two seasons at Fort Myers and New Britain respectively while swiping 47 bases combined over the past two years. He’s already shown (in 2014’s small sample size) that he’s capable of being a spark to a lineup with his speed and ability to put the ball in play.

If Pedro Florimon is delayed by his appendectomy or if he struggles at all during the spring, Santana could force his way into the discussion simply because of his offensive potential. He’s also already on the 40 man roster, which makes calling him up easy.

Why he won’t make the roster: Santana’s weakness has always been his defense. He rushes his throws, doesn’t set his feet and as a result will sail a throw over the first baseman’s head. He committed 32 errors in 2013, a number far too high for a major league shortstop. He’s spoken about slowing down the game and making his throws, so it sounds like he’s aware of his issues and working on a solution (to that point, he’s played very solid defense so far this spring) but until we see an extended stretch of error free baseball, Santana’s defense will be his biggest detraction.

Also of concern is Santana’s OBP, while he’s posted averages in the high .200’s his OBP has struggled to surge much beyond the low .300’s. Essentially, if Santana isn’t hitting his way on base, he’s not getting there. With his speed, he needs to be on base to play up to his full potential. In short, he needs to take more walks and work on better pitch selection. Santana told Mike Bernadino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press that he wants to draw 30 more walks in 2014 – a goal that, if met, will vastly improve Santana’s stock in the organization.

Prediction: Santana’s the toughest call of any prospect at this point. His bat is Major League ready – all he’s missing is the defense. Through a series of “If’s” I can see Santana being the opening day starter. IF Santana plays great defense in the spring and IF Pedro Florimon is slowed by his surgery, Santana makes the squad as the starting SS. Without those conditions, I think he’s sent to AAA Rochester. He’s not far away from the big league roster, however.

Wilkin Ramirez (OF)

Spring Stats: .571 AVG, 1.571 OPS, 5 RBI

How he’ll make the roster: Ramirez earned a spot on the opening day roster last season based on the strength of his strong spring and he’s doing his best to repeat the accomplishment this year. Ramirez’s 2013 stats are lessened due to two injuries (concussion, broken leg) that essentially derailed his season. But his 2013 spring and 2014 spring show what the Twins see in the 28 year old outfielder. He bas a solid bat (with decent power) and plays all 3 OF positions. He also provides a leadership role to the younger Latin American players in the Twins clubhouse.

Why he won’t make the roster: Ramirez is the ideal bench bat for a contending team as he adds a bit of flexibility and depth. Unfortunately, the Twins are likely not a contending team – and may prioritize their roster differently because of this fact. In short, the Twins could likely carry 13 pitchers into opening day (to protect Scott Diamond, Vance Worley and Sam Deduno) which will pinch the bench. Wilkin could still crack the club as the 4^th OF if he outplays Aaron Hicks and Darin Mastroianni (Alex Presley being the starter, in this instance) but if Hicks wins the starting job and Presley claims the backup role, a smaller bench will likely force Ramirez into AAA.

Prediction: I have a hunch that Aaron Hicks wins the starting job this spring once again (I’ll readily admit that this is an unpopular theory – but I’m just going with my gut). That will necessitate carrying a 4^th OF that can play CF at a high level (Mastroianni and Presley) which will bump Wilkin off the bench and into Rochester.

Kennys Vargas (1B/DH)

Spring Stats: .333 AVG, .619 OPS

Why he’ll make the roster: Vargas has a tremendously dangerous bat with incredible power. He could feasibly step into the everyday DH role while filling in at 1B when Mauer needs a day off. He plays sufficiently decent defense at first (not a liability) and is already on the 40 man roster. His bat is SO dangerous – he could be a threatening force in the lineup immediately, if given the chance.

Why he won’t make the roster: Vargas is still a bit unpolished. He’s never played in AA ball and has taken some time to adjust to each level as he’s promoted. While he’s 24 years old, there is a chance you could ruin a prospect like Vargas by rushing him – a jump to the big leagues without any AA seasoning may be pushing him a bit too fast.

Prediction: Vargas will be an interesting case. He’s on the 40 man roster now, so the team is obviously expecting him to contribute within the next couple of seasons. He has the potential to be an offensive force – but he’ll need to show that he can hit at AA before the Twins even think of him making the jump. He’ll start 2014 in New Britain, but don’t be surprised if he’s one of the prospects getting the call in September. If all goes well, he could be a big league DH as soon as 2015.

Twins Prospect Rundown

It’s been a quiet month on my blog because it’s been a quiet month for the Minnesota Twins. The Yankees landed Masahiro Tanaka, to the surprise of no one, while the Brewers grabbed Matt Garza – to everyone’s surprise.

With the big fish Tanaka off the market, the remaining free agents are likely to find homes soon and there are still some guy out there (Arroyo, Santana, Cruz) that have a connection to the Twins and could end up in Minnesota before spring training begins. When the ice begins to break and players begin to sign, we’ll discuss the moves the Twins made (or didn’t make) until then, let’s begin another spring tradition; prospect rankings.

MLB.com and Baseball Prospectus have debuted their 2014 prospect lists already this month and many more sites will be following shortly. I ran my own list (see it here) last year. I always grade my prospects a bit differently than the big sites. They like to weigh how close a prospect is making his debut in their rankings (the top of the list is usually AA & AAA heavy, while the low A guys are at the bottom). I like to look at talent and impact. I don’t care as much about how close you are to helping the big league club, I want to go on your talent RIGHT NOW plus POTENTIAL growth. Got it? Cool. Let’s list!

1. Byron Buxton (CF)

2013 Stats: .334/.424/.520, 12 HR, 77 RBI, 55 SB (Combined stats from A-, A+ ball)

Projected 2014 Level: AA New Britain

Projected MLB Debut: Late 2014 or Mid 2015

Byron Buxton is a one of a kind talent, that much became apparent after the 20 year old from Georgia finished his first full minor league season. He already shows great vision and discipline at the plate, which is impressive for a young player that many believed would struggle initially when he faced professional competition for the first time. That struggle never happened and Buxton is currently on the fast track to the big leagues, likely appearing in AA New Britain to start the season and making a big league debut within the next year if all goes well.

Buxton is nearly off the charts on the traditional scouting 20-80 scales. He’s a true 5 tool player that rates above average in bat (70), speed (70), defense (80), arm (70) and power (65). Even his WORST tool, power, is above average and many scouts think that will soon catch up with his other skills. The scariest part? Buxton believe he can (and will) get better. Buxton has been placed atop all of the MLB prospect lists, so it’s not much of a surprise that he comes out as the Twins best prospect.

2. Miguel Sano (3B)

2013 Stats: .280/.382/.610, 35 HR, 103 RBI (Combined stats from A+, AA ball)

Projected 2014 Level: AA New Britain before AAA Rochester

Projected MLB Debut: 2014 (Midseason)

In any other system in baseball, Miguel Sano would rank as the top prospect. In the Twins’ system, he’s number two and it’s not even that close of a race. That’s great news for the Twins, because their default #2 prospect is an absolute monster at the plate. His power gives him the ability to turn any pitch he can hit into a souvenir. He will generate some swings and misses, but his contact is actually improving and nothing to scoff at. Many scouts predict Sano will be able to hit for a respectable average while clobbering 40-50 home runs per season.

Sano’s defense has been his biggest question mark as the former short stop turned third baseman is a bit large for the position. His footwork is improving and he has the arm strength to make the tough throws across the diamond, however, so tales of Sano being moved from 3B seem a bit premature.

It’s likely the Twins give Sano a few weeks in AA before moving him to AAA in the first month or two of the season. I would then full expect Sano to make his debut by June or July in Minnesota. There’s little left for the mighty slugger to prove in the minors – it’s time for one of the Twins’ faces of the feature to hit the show.

3. Alex Meyer  (P)

2013 Stats: 104.1 IP, 3.02 ERA, 11 K/9,

2014 Projected Level: AAA Rochester

Projected MLB Debut: 2014 (Early)

Some fans in Minnesota cried foul when the Twins traded beloved CF Denard Span straight up for Alex Meyer, but their fears have since been quelled as Meyer has proven just how good he can be. Despite struggling with a shoulder injury through last season, Meyer still managed to throw 104 innings, featuring his mid 90’s fastball and sharp curve.

He’s the first wave of the changing mindset of the Twins when it comes to pitchers. Meyer is NOT a pitch to contact guy. He is, without question, a strikeout pitcher. Meyer is big league ready, but I think the Twins will give him a few starts in AAA to get in shape while they feel out the back end of their own rotation. So long as he’s healthy, there is no way Meyer doesn’t make his Twins debut this season.

4. Eddie Roasario (2B/OF)

2013 Stats: .293/.338/.494, 10 HR, 12 SB (Combined stats from A+, AA last season)

2014 Projected Level: AA (Midseason) AAA (last two months)

Projected MLB Debut: 2015 (Midseason)

Rosario’s timetable is thrown off due to a drug suspension (recreational drug use, reportedly marijuana) that will cost him 50 games of the 2014 season. Without that suspension, Rosario would likely be making his Target Field debut around July of this season. Instead, he’ll likely begin 2014 in AA to work off the rust before moving to AAA to finish the year. There’s a chance he could be a September call up for the Twins this year, but I doubt the organization will make that move.

It’s a shame Rosario made this mistake, because the youngster has some great talent. The one time outfielder was in the process of being converted into a 2B (due to the organization’s lack of depth at the position) before Brian Dozier broke onto the scene in 2013. He’s since been shifted back to the OF, but still has the potential to play 2B, where his defense was improving quite nicely, according to scouts.

The real strength of Rosario’s game is his bat. Scouts believe he can hit for average in the bigs RIGHT now, as his bat speed and plate vision are that good. He’s lacking power, but that doesn’t mean he still can’t hit 10-15 home runs per season. He’s speedy enough to be a threat on the bases, but won’t lead the league in steals each season – all in all, Rosario has the potential to be a great piece to build a team around. He’ll get on base, has respectable power and the ability to play 2 positions above average defensively.

5. Kohl Stewart (P)

2013 Stats: 20 IP, 1.35 ERA, 10.5 K/9

2014 Projected Level: A- (Early) A+ (Late)

Projected MLB Debut: 2016

Stewart is our first long term project, but it’s going to be worth waiting for the Texas 19 year old to develop. His professional debut was cut short due to arm fatigue, but what little we saw was very impressive. Stewart features a mid 90’s fastball with lots of natural movement. He also throws a plus rated slider, solid curve and a changeup that has the potential to be a plus pitch as well.

Stewart is expected to grow into his frame, which will help increase his fastball speed into the upper 90’s. He needs to work on control, but scouts believe that is just a matter of working with the right pitching coaches to develop a routine to keep his mechanics consistent. He’ll likely see time in Cedar Rapids for most of 2014, but I would expect a late promotion to Fort Myers before the year is done. He’s still 2 years away, but the Twins have to be excited about the immense talent Stewart has shown so far.

6. Josmil Pinto (C)

2013 Stats: .342/.398/.566 (September MLB Stats)

2014 Projected Level: AAA / MLB

Projected MLB Debut: He debuted in 2013, but I’d say full time in 2014 (May)

Pinto barely qualifies as a prospect any more since he may break spring training on the big league roster, but his 84 plate appearances in September don’t cost him his rookie status, so they shouldn’t cost him his prospect ranking either.

Pinto had languished in the Twins system for 3 years before suddenly finding life in his bat in 2011. Since then, he has rocketed through the Twins system, posting great offensive numbers along the way. Pinto’s bat is his strong point, as he shows great vision at the plate and the ability to make solid contact with what he swings at. He has solid power (20 – 25 home runs per season likely). His one soft spot is defense, which is average or slightly below average. The Twins hope that coaching and practice will bring Pinto to a respectable level but even he stays below average defensively, his bat will earn him a spot in the lineup.

7. Jose Berrios (P)

2013 Stats: 103.2 IP, 3.99 ERA, 8.7 K/9

2014 Projected Level: A+ Fort Myers

Projected MLB Debut: 2015 (late) 2016

Berrios is a player many look over when listing the best in the Twins’ system, and that’s a mistake. The 19 year old from Puerto Rico has a much talent as nearly every other pitcher in the system. At 6’0” and 187, Berrios is a smaller pitcher, but that doesn’t cost him any velocity. He features a fastball that touches the high 90’s and can even hit triple digits on the radar gun. He has an assortment of secondary pitches including a curve and change up that will need some work, but could be potential plus pitches if he can master them.

Berrios is still rough around the edges, which will likely mean a slower path to the majors so he can develop better control and polish his secondary offerings. If he can do that, however, there’s very little stopping Berrios from being one of the best pitchers in the big leagues. He has that much talent. Even if he doesn’t pan out to be a starter, Berrios could potentially be one very difficult bullpen arm. Either way, Jose is a player Twins fans will want to keep an eye on in the coming years.

8. Stephen Gonsalves (P)

2013 Stats: 28 IP, .95 ERA, 12.4 K/9

2014 Projected Level: A- Cedar Rapids

Projected MLB Debut: 2016

I’ll admit I’m a bit higher on Gonsalves than other national outlets are, but that’s because I’m willing to see what he can become. What he is right now is a hard throwing left hander that profiles very similarly to Kohl Stewart, the 4^th overall pick in the 2013 draft. So why is Gonsalves often overlooked, especially given that he’s a lefty? He got into some trouble during his senior year in high school and was kicked off his team. There were concerns about his character and his drive before the draft and those concerns caused the promising lefty to fall into the fourth round.

The Twins believe they have the staff to keep Gonsalves on the right path and the coaches to help develop his raw talent into something more. When it comes to raw talent, Gonsalves has it in spades. He features a plus fastball, but also has solid secondary pitches that should improve with coaching. His professional debut was short, but Gonsalves exceled in the limited opportunity, earning a promotion from the Gulf Coast League to the Appalachian League after only 8 appearances. His makeup and skills are good enough that I believe he’ll start in Cedar Rapids in 2014. The Twins won’t rush him, but he could end the year in Fort Myers if he blows away the competition in the Midwest League.

Gonsalves reminds me of a left handed Kohl Stewart, so long as he can continue to turn his pure talent into pitching skill, he’ll be a bright star in the Twins rotation in 2 years.

9. Danny Santana (SS)

2013 Stats: .297/.333/.386, 2 HR, 45 RBI, 30 SB

2014 Projected Level: AAA Rochester

Projected MLB Debut: 2014 (Mid season)

Danny Santana has been on many Twins fans’ radar for the past several years. The organization has be devoid of any depth at SS since trading away Jason Bartlett and JJ Hardy – so a bright spot, any bright spot, is a welcome sign. Santana may be that bright spot. After a slow start to his professional career, Santana has taken off in the past two seasons, earning promotions each season. He finished 2013 in AA and will likely begin 2014 in AAA but is not that far now from taking his first cuts at Target Field.

Santana’s strength is his offense. He boasts solid contact and the ability to hit for a good average while limiting strikeouts. He doesn’t have much for power, but his speed makes him a threat to steal once he gets on base. The weak spot in Santana’s game is his defense. He committed 32 errors at SS in 2013, which is far too many for a defensive minded club like the Twins. Scouts have reported that Santana could reduce some of those errors by working on his footwork and not rushing his throws. Hopefully with a little more coaching and some time in AAA, Santana can figure out how to reduce some of his defensive miscues, because his bat is ready for the big leagues right now.

10. Jorge Polanco (2B/SS)

2013 Stats: .308/.362/.452, 5 HR, 78 RBI

2014 Projected Level: A+ Fort Myers / AA New Britain (Late)

Projected MBL Debut: 2015 (Late)

Hot on Santana’s heels is Jorge Polanco. Polanco has been in the Twins system since 2010, but he’s only 20 years old, so it’s not as if he’s a slow riser. Over the past two seasons, his offense has begun to develop nicely, culminating in a great stat line from Cedar Rapids in 2013. He’s above average defensively and scouts believe his range will improve as he improves his footwork.

Polanco doesn’t have much in the way of power and is simply average when it comes to speed, but the ability to hit for average and play defense in the middle infield is a welcome thing. He’s more likely to end up at 2B than SS, which hurts his value a little (that’s why others rank him around 12^th in the system) but there’s no reason to count him out of the SS race for now. I have Polanco making his debut in September of 2015 or the early portion of 2016. He’s got some time to develop, but the potential is there for Polanco to be a special player.

Rounding out my top 20:

11. Max Kepler (OF)
12. DJ Hicks (1B)
13. Lewis Thorpe (P)
14. Trevor May (P)
15. Felix Jorge (P)
16. Kennys Vargas (1B)
17. Travis Harrison (3B/1B)
18. Stuart Turner (C)
19. Ryan Eades (P)
20. Niko Goodrum (SS/2B)

I’ll readily admit I’m probably banking too highly on Gonalves’ potential and thus have him a bit too high. If I were to knock players for how close they are to being major league ready, I’d bump him out of the top 10 and Move Kepler into his spot.

All things considered, however, the Twins have one talented farm system. Goodrum and Eades could easily be top 10 guys in other systems and they struggled to make my top 20 list. Other players such as Daniel Bard, a talented starting pitching prospect, aren’t even on the list. That leads to great things for the Twins future and a reason for fans to be excited.

Do The Twins Need To Keep Shopping?

The Twins have had an active offseason so far, signing free agent pitchers Ricky Nolasco, Phil Hughes and resigning Mike Pelfrey. They’ve also added catcher Kurt Suzuki and traded catcher / designated hitter Ryan Doumit for left handed pitcher Sean Gilmartin. As I mentioned in my last post, they’ve also been linked to Bronson Arroyo and Matt Garza and there may or may not be interest in Stephen Drew. This uncharacteristic activity is a welcome sign from a Twins team that has languished to the bottom of the AL Central with 90+ losses in each of the last three seasons. Any additional moves would be quite the surprise, give the large amount of activity already completed from the Twins – but the rumors persist – the Twins are still shopping.

The question is, do they need to?

While it’s easy to say that a 90 loss team should acquire all the talent they can, there comes a point where talent acquisition doesn’t actually improve your current team. Have the Twins reached that point? Where should the Twins be focusing their last few signings – pitchers, infield, outfield depth? Let’s take a look at the roster as it stands on 1/6/2014 and figure out just where the Twins should place their attention.

Starting Pitchers:

Ricky Nolasco

Phil Hughes

Mike Pelfrey

Kevin Correia

Samuel Deduno / Scott Diamond / Vance Worley / Andrew Albers

Bullpen:

Anthony Swarzak

Brian Duensing

Ryan Pressly

Caleb Thielbar

Casey Fien

Jared Burton

Glen Perkins

Simply by adding Nolasco and Hughes, the Twins have made massive upgrades to their rotation for 2014. That being said, I think they could do a little more. With the rotation as it stands, the Twins are relying on Nolasco’s 2013 not being an aberration as well as relying on Phil Hughes to post better (IE non Yankee Stadium) numbers at Target Field AND relying on Mike Pelfrey looking like July / August 2013 Mike Pelfrey, not May / June 2013 Mike Pelfrey.

That’s a lot of conditions that could potentially swing a good rotation to a horrendous rotation (also, to be fair, they could swing to a superb rotation). The Twins would be wise to shore up their bets by adding one more arm. Depending on how bold they feel, that arm could be Matt Garza or Bronson Arroyo – but either addition would be an upgrade. Adding Garza /Arroyo would bump one of the fringe starters (Diamond, Worley, Deduno, Albers) to the bullpen. Given the present build of the bullpen, I’d wager that Diamond would be the leading candidate to move into a long reliever role. This move would also slide Kevin Correia or Mike Pelfrey into the #5 starter role, which they could then give up to Alex Meyer, when he proves he’s ready for the show.

By adding one more starter, the Twins could have a July rotation that looks something like this:

Starters:

Garza

Nolasco

Hughes

Peflrey

Meyer

Bullpen:

Diamond

Correia

Swarzak / Duensing

Fien

Thielbar

Burton

Perkins

Factor in the minor league arms the Twins added to the 40 man roster (Ibarra, Darnell, Johnson, Tonkin) plus Kyle Gibson and Trevor May and you’ve got a lot of depth in the pitching staff. One more arm makes that depth even better.

Moving on to the positions players, the move of Joe Mauer to first base created a bit of a problem for the Twins. Chris Parmelee and Chris Colabello, who were likely going to timeshare 1B in 2014 prior to Mauer’s move, are now the odd men out while Josmil Pinto – who would have likely split time with Mauer in 2014, is now a potential starter. The opening day roster currently looks something like this:

C: Josmil Pinto / Kurt Suzuki

1B: Joe Mauer

2B: Brian Dozier

SS: Pedro Florimon

3B: Trevor Plouffe

LF: Josh Willingham

CF: Alex Presley

RF: Oswaldo Arcia

DH: Jason Kubel

Bench:

Pinto / Suzuki, Eduardo Escobar (INF), Parmelee/Colabello (1B/OF),

That’s a thin bench and a bit of a thin roster. Even if you assume that Miguel Sano will be in Minneapolis by July the roster does little to improve (My projected July lineup would look like this):

C: Pinto

1B: Mauer

2B: Dozier

SS: Florimon

3B: Sano

LF: Arcia

CF: Hicks

RF: Plouffe

DH: Willingham

Bench: Suzuki, Parmelee, Presley, Escobar, Kubel

Better depth, but still missing one more bat before I can really feel confident in this offense. The problem the Twins will face (if you can call it that) is that they have a deluge of talent making its way to the big leagues in the next year to two years. By 2015, Byron Buxton will take over in CF and Eddie Rosario could be manning LF with Aaron Hicks in RF and Oswaldo Arcia DH-ing.

2015 Projected Lineup:

C: Pinto

1B: Mauer

2B: Dozier

SS: Florimon / Santana

3B: Sano

LF: Rosario

CF: Buxton

RF: Hicks

DH: Arcia

Bench: Suzuki / Fryer, Florimon, Plouffe, Presley

If EVERYTHING breaks in the Twins’ favor, their lineup in 2015 will be stacked with young talent. That makes free agent acquisition for the here and now tough to do. You can’t go out and sign a bit bat like Nelson Cruz because he’ll be a large (potentially unnecessary) contract in as little as one year. Instead, the Twins should look to the lesser known free agents and pluck up a super utility player to bolster their bench.

Who, you ask? Well, someone like Roger Bernadina, Sam Fuld or Brennan Boesch. I’ll grant you, none of those names will excite the fan base, but they’ll add a bit of much needed depth to the Twins bench. Adding Fuld, who can play all 3 outfield positions, gives the Twins more roster flexibility for 2014, but wouldn’t clog up the roster for 2015 (or even midseason 2014, if the free agent fails to deliver).

Of that crew, I’d shoot for Bernadina – who had a down year in 2013, but has the potential for base stealing and has posted respectable OBP over his career. At worst, he’s a pinch running, base stealer who can fill in defensively (Mastroianni’s role) at best, he’s viable 4^th outfielder who can give the starters a day off during the week.

From my perspective, the Twins do have a little more shopping to do. They would do well by adding one more free agent starting pitcher and would be wise to look for outfield / utility player depth to help Ron Gardenhire’s bench a little more. The Twins have done a lot of shopping for the 2014 season, and they’re likely to improve because of them – but with two more additions, this team could COMPETE in 2014. Now, wouldn’t that be fun?

Twins Back In On Garza?

Recently, ESPN 1500’s Darren Wolfson reported that the Twins had returned to free agent pitcher Matt Garza and were once again “kicking the tires” on the former Twin prospect. This came as quite a surprise as reports had Garza’s value climbing into the 5 year, $80-$85M range, a price that (theoretically) forced the Twins out of the conversation.

Wolfson says the sticking point for the Twins is length. They’re willing to pay Garza top dollar, but they’re apparently hesitant to pony up top dollar over a five year contract. The Twins prefer Garza over free agents Ubaldo Jimenez and Ervin Santana because Garza does not have draft pick compensation attached to him (meaning he would not cost the Twins their second round pick if signed, like the aforementioned would).

Recent speculation is that Garza’s value (and suitors) has dropped due to the posting of Japanese ace Mashario Tanaka. Teams that were big on Garza (New York, Boston, Arizona) have shifted their priority to Tanaka, leaving Garza and the other top free agents (Arroyo, Jimenez, Santana) to sit and wait until the Tanaka sweepstakes end. If this is the case, it’s a brilliant play by the Twins to make a push right now.

Terry Ryan and the Twins can offer Garza a 3 year deal, with a vesting 4^th year (if incentives are hit) at a bit higher AAV than expected (say, $16M per year) and can sell this contract as a guarantee. Who knows how the market will shake out after Tanaka is posted? Say the Yankees sign Tanaka; that takes them out of the running for the other free agents; thereby lowering the price all around (agents cannot use the Yankee’s seemingly endless budget to inflate the price of their guys). With other top line starters out there, who knows what pitcher will be the last man standing when the signings are all done? Take 3 years, $48M now and don’t worry about finding a home before spring training. It’s a brilliant play by Terry Ryan and the Twins front office and it’s one that I hope works out.

Fans tend to think of Garza as an ace type player, but his numbers really point to a solid #2 starter on most staffs. Over the past four seasons, Garza has posted a WAR of 3.2, 2.9, 1.6, 4.9, 1.1 while throwing for 184, 203, 204, 198 and 101 innings. His xFIP averages 3.92 and his FIP (4 year average of 3.97) shows that he’s been consistent and that his numbers are not influenced too heavily by luck.  He’s not in the class of Kershaw, Hernandez, Verlander, but he is certainly not a bad player either.

Let’s say the Twins do sign Garza and let’s also assume that the team wants to keep one of the Diamond, Albers, Worley trio to be the team’s 5^th starter (all three are out of options and would have to be exposed to waivers if they were removed from the 25 man roster). That creates a bit of a logjam at the starting pitcher position (never thought you’d hear that about a Twins team, right?)

With Garza, the projected 2014 starting staff would be:

1.       Garza

2.       Nolasco

3.       Hughes

4.       Pelfrey

5.       Diamond / Worley / Albers

6.       Correia

Not to mention Alex Meyer will be big league ready by June or July (if not earlier). That’s potentially 7 guys vying for 5 spots.

The Diamond / Worley / Albers (throw in Deduno if you’d like) issue doesn’t worry me. Let the best one win a spot out of spring training and if they cannot cut it, replace them with Alex Meyer. Corriea’s spot is actually easily solvable as well. With his relatively cheap contract and consistent performance, the Twins shouldn’t struggle to flip Correia to another team to further bolster their own roster. In fact, I think the Twins could package an extra bat (Parmelee, Colabello) with Correia to pick up a better piece for the team.

A cursory glance over the rest of MLB has placed the Orioles on my radar as the perfect trade target. They need one more reliable starter for their rotation and they have always been looking for a DH / bench bat to help out their offense. The Twins have those pieces to spare, and are looking for starting pitching depth (the Orioles have that in the minor leagues) or starting shortstop…maybe one like the Twins traded away a few years ago (Okay, maybe THE one the Twins traded away a few years ago). Yes, JJ Hardy.

The Twins would likely have to kick in one more player to get the Orioles to agree to trade Hardy, but luckily the Orioles are searching for a closer to fill in for Jim Johnson (after the Grant Balfour deal fell apart). Can I interest you in Caleb Theilbar, Brian Duensing, Jared Burton or Ryan Pressly?

My hypothetical trade would be as follows:

Orioles acquire:

Kevin Correia

Chris Parmelee

Jared Burton

Twins acquire:

JJ Hardy

The O’s get a starter, a bench / DH bat (who should hit well in Camden Yards) and a bullpen arm that could easily convert to a closer. While the Twins get a shortstop with some pop in his bat – simply by clearing out some extra parts.

In short, I’m glad to hear the Twins are back in on Matt Garza as I think it will not only help the rotation become even more competitive, but it will likely force the Twins to make additional moves to improve the club. (I’m salivating over a 2014 lineup featuring Hardy)

CF: Alex Presley

2B: Brian Dozier

1B: Joe Mauer

LF: Josh Willingham

C: Josmil Pinto

RF: Oswaldo Arica 

SS: JJ Hardy

3B: Miguel Sano 

DH: Trevor Plouffe

That looks like a lot of fun (and a lot of power). Here’s hoping we see it happen in 2014.