Offseason Updates

The Twins made their first moves of the offseason on Wednesday by cutting free a few players from the 40 man roster. The group of players included: Jeff Manship, Luis Perdomo, Esmerling Vasquez, Kyle Waldrop, PJ Walters and Matt Carson. The Twins also declined the option of Matt Capps, making him a free agent and removing him from the 40 man as well.

Of the above list, only Kyle Waldrop comes up as a surprise. He managed a respectable 2.53 ERA in 21 1/3 innings in 2012 and looked like a candidate to become a starter or long reliever. There was some question about sample size with Waldrop, however, and obviously the Twins thought his small sample size of success was not indicative of future output.

Manship was ineffective as a reliever and bounced between the majors and minors a few times in 2012. His removal gives the Twins room to pick up another reliever. Vasquez and Walters had a shot to earn 2013 roster spots, but largely were ineffective in their chances. Perdomo can’t hit the strike zone if it was twice as large and was justifiably sent away.

Some fans were surprised about Matt Carson being let go as he played very solidly in the outfield over the last half of the season and demonstrated a great arm in the outfield. The Twins, however, are loaded with outfield prospects Oswaldo Arcia, Aaron Hicks, Joe Benson, Darin Mastroianni, Eddie Rosario, Byron Buxton and others are likely candidates to move into full time roles within the next season or two. At 31, Carson is an established veteran who is better suited for a team looking to contend right away. Giving Carson any playing time would take away opportunities from Arcia, Hicks, Benson and Mastroianni.

One last thought on Capps, some fans are praising the end of the Matt Capps era, using his as the greatest person of blame for the team’s recent struggles (sort of a symbolic image of failure). I won’t go as far as to say this is the end of Capps, in fact, I could see the Twins resigning the reliever to a much friendlier contract and using him more in middle relief. The closer role belongs to Glen Perkins, but you can never turn down quality bullpen arms, especially when you’re in need of talent like the Twins are.

Obvious Statements

I generally enjoy the content posted on Twinsdaily.com – they have a plethora of insightful Twins writers and cover a wide range of topics. This week, however, they featured a story so painfully obvious I’m wondering if they’re running out of offseason content.

The story, in a nutshell, proposed the grand idea that the Twins should trade Justin Morneau with the end result simply being clearing $14 million off the payroll.

Um…duh?

Of course the perfect start to this offseason for the Twins centers around moving Morneau. If the team can package the first baseman to a contender and get salary relief in return it sets up a few key moves. First and foremost, Chris Parmelee can take over full time duties at first base, which is his natural position. Secondly, that $14 million can be turned into a quality free agent pitcher. Everyone except the cream of the crop (Hint: his initials are ZG) should be attainable for the $14 million figure. So, yes – obviously it’s in the Twins best interest to flip Morneau for salary relief, shift Parmelee to first and use Justin’s money to acquire a pitcher. I’m not arguing the idea, I’m just pointing out the absurdity of calling out this idea likes it’s new or novel when most Twins fans have been saying this since June.

Interesting Rumor Of The Week

Tim Lincecum to Minnesota for Denard Span.

The Giants aren’t comfortable shifting Lincecum back to a starter’s role and he’s due for a big payday after next season. The Giants outfield, while effective this fall, is largely composed of below average players (Blanco & Pagan) and could use the boost of a true outfield blue chipper – like Denard Span.

Minnesota’s need for a true ace is obvious, and any form of Lincecum would fit that mold perfectly.

Lincecum is a San Francisco favorite, and his playoff revival may give the Giants pause when considering any trade. That being said, on the surface this deal makes sense for both sides. Like most offseason rumors, there’s likely nothing here, but it’s a story worth following as the winter months progress.

Hot Stove, Warming Up

The start of the MLB offseason is usually filled with wild trade proposals and sketchy speculation (See: my posts from last week) but every now and again some rumor site, “unofficial source”, “unnamed GM” or beat reporter will throw something out there that makes a lot of sense. Recently there’s been a few rumors and speculations circling the internet that are worth taking a closer look at.

Rumor #1:

The Rays are looking to trade some of their deep starting pitching for bigger bats.

Multiple sources around the Rays organization have them looking to shop one or more of their starting pitchers to fill the offensive holes in their lineup. While that may sound surprising on the surface, it actually makes a lot of sense.

The Rays are graced with great depth at the pitcher spot, currently sporting David Price, James Shields, Jeremy Hellickson, Wade Davis, Alex Cobb and Chris Archer. Their offensive production has been the issue keeping them from being playoff bound on a regular basis. It makes sense to trade a position of strength for a position of need.

Furthering the reasoning that the Rays may be looking to shop a starter or two is their pending payroll issues. The Rays are the lowest drawing team in baseball and are coming off of one of their largest payrolls in team history. While the contracts of Carlos Pena, Kyle Farnsworth and Luke Scott coming off the books will help their bottom line, the fact remains that through arbitration this winter their payroll will rise by an estimated $50 million for 17 players.

James Shields is one of those players who will see his pay go up this offseason as the pitcher has a $9 million option, and many are thinking that this pay bump will price him out of Tampa Bay.

David Price, who is a relatively affordable (for the Rays) $4.25 million right now, is also expected to see a significant pay bump in the near future. The Rays are rumored to be motivated in moving Price prior to this pay increase.

The Rays need bats and have pitching; the Twins need pitching and have bats. This trade essentially makes itself, right?

While I agree a Rays / Twins deal seems likely to happen this offseason, I don’t think Twins fans should be so quick to say “Twins get David Price!”

Price is a Cy Young caliber pitcher who will command a big return, one the Twins probably won’t be able to compete with. Teams like the Rangers and Red Sox who are graced with position player depth (Elvis Andrus, Mike Olt, Jurikson Profar for the Rangers – everyone on the roster for the Red Sox) that they’d be willing to deal for Price.

That’s why I think the Twins should (and will) focus in on the “other” guy available for Tampa Bay – James Shields.

Shields’ numbers this season weren’t Cy Young caliber, but his 15-10 record and 3.52 ERA was better than any pitcher the Twins rolled out all year. In addition, his 223 strikeouts would have been the best mark by two and a half times (next closes was Scott Diamond with 95).

The Twins would have to negotiate an extension with Shields as part of any trade, but would likely be able to win him over with the guarantee of him being the staff ace. Shields would instantly provide the Twins with a #1 pitcher and would anchor any rotation for Minnesota for the foreseeable future.

So, who do the Twins have that the Rays would want? First and foremost, Denard Span. He’s EXACTLY what the Tampa Bay Rays would want in an outfielder. (Don’t forget, BJ Upton is likely out of Tampa this year too as he is becoming too expensive – the Rays need a center fielder) he’s a reliable bat, great defensive player and (most importantly) is cheap and under team control.

Span alone is not enough to pry Shields from the Rays. They’d need to throw in another big bat. The Twins have options in Josh Willingham, Ryan Doumit, Justin Morneau, Trevor Plouffe and Chris Parmelee.

Willingham would not be a part of any Span trade (the Twins would be giving up too much value) and Doumit doesn’t look like a good fit for the Rays’ needs. Plouffe’s defense keeps him from being a Tampa target and Parmelee is the young player that the Twins need to build around.

That leaves Justin Morneau, who fits the bill perfectly for Tampa. He’s a big bat, would provide a veteran presence on what will likely be a young ballclub and he can play first base. The catch with Morneau is his massive $14 million contract, which would certainly be too much for the team to take on.

The trade goes down if the Twins are willing to eat some of Morneau’s salary, and I think if they’re getting James Shields in return, they’d be willing to do so.

Proposed Trade:

Twins Get: James Shields

Rays Get: Denard Span, Justin Morneau (Twins agree to eat $9 million of Justin’s salary)

Rumor #2

The Marlins are on the verge of another fire sale and Josh Johnson is priority #1 to move.

After sputtering out of the gate in 2012, the new look Miami Marlins are expected to do a lot of retooling this offseason. They’ve been linked to Alex Rodriguez and are frequently tied to any and all big name free agents. These (suggested) moves are being predicated on the Marlins doing their bi-annual “fire sale” and jettisoning some of their talent.

Like the Rays, the Marlins are looking for position player depth to help boost an offense that was simply offensive last season.

Josh Johnson’s 2012 was poor – even by already low Twins pitcher standards. He posted an 8-14 record with a 3.81 ERA and 165 strikeouts. Johnson was coming off of an injury year and was slow to recover early in the season. By mid season he was looking like his usual self, but received very little in the way of support from the Marlins offense.

Johnson’s career numbers (56-37, 3.14 ERA) show that he is a staff ace, one that should rebound after a down year.

What’s helping the Twins is that Johnson is viewed as “plan B” by a lot of teams this season. His down season, bigger contract and injury history have teams a little gun-shy to jump at the Marlins’ offers. That makes Johnson the perfect target for the Twins front office.

Once again, what do the Twins have that the Marlins want? Outfield depth and big bats – mainly, Josh Willingham (who was a Marlin many years ago). I think the Twins could swing the same Denard Span + Justin Morneau deal (without having to eat contract $$) and get Johnson from the Marlins, but let’s assume they make the Shields trade and don’t have either of those players left. Josh Willingham + Casey Fien / Alex Burnett / Brian Duensing would get that deal done, I believe.

Twins Get: Josh Johnson

Marlins Get: Josh Willingham & Alex Burnett or Casey Fien

Predictions (Based on the above rumors)

The Twins won’t come to an agreement with Tampa Bay, who will be able to flip both Shields and Price for more than the Twins will be willing / able to offer.

As such, the Twins pursue Josh Johnson and end up dealing Denard Span and Justin Morneau to the Marlins for their one time ace.

The Twins fill in around Johson by signing Shaun Marcum, Joe Blanton and Scott Baker. 2013’s rotation is:

1. Josh Johnson
2. Scott Diamond
3. Shaun Marcum
4. Scott Baker / Liam Hendriks (Hendriks starts the year, Baker is adding in June)
5. Joe Blanton

That’s not a bad rotation.

Of course, I’d prefer if the Twins could get James Shields as a rotation of:

Shields

Diamond

Marcum

Baker / Hendriks

Blanton

Looks better than one with the relative unknown of Johnson on top.

Of course, in a dream world, the Twins pull off both trades and have a rotation that looks like this:

1. Shields
2. Johnson
3. Diamond
4. Marcum
5. Baker / Hendriks

(In this scenario, Blanton is not signed by the Twins)

The odds of any of these potential trades happening are extremely low – but that’s the beauty of offseason speculation – there’s always a chance. So long as we keep playing with that chance, we’ve got something to entertain ourselves.

GM for a Day: How to Fix the Minnesota Twins

I’m putting on my ‘General Manager’ hat today and pretending to be Terry Ryan. I’ve got a ballclub that’s finished last in the American League over the past two seasons. I have a solid offensive framework, but no pitching staff to account for. I have a superstar at catcher, but I don’t want him to catch any longer. In short, I have a mess on my hands. My job is potentially on the line if the team fails to climb out of the cellar yet again, but the free agent market is sparse in talent and the cream of the crop is sure to quickly move beyond what my owner is willing to spend. How do I rebuild a once proud franchise in one season, without breaking the bank? Here’s how:

In House Measures:

1)      Decline Scott Baker’s option. $9.5 million for a pitcher coming off of Tommy John surgery is simply not happening. What we will do is negotiate with Baker and offer him a much lower ($1.5 million base) contract with heavy incentives for innings pitched and ERA (with the ability to work that contract up to $3.5 million).

2)      Buyout Matt Capps’ contract for $250,000 – and resign him to a much more reasonable $1.5 - $2 million 2 year deal. The Twins have been loyal to Capps over the past two seasons, and that loyalty should buy them a hometown discount. This contract is offered to Capps with the understanding that he is NOT the closer.

3)      Accept Alexi Casilla’s $1.8 million (estimated) arbitration figure.

4)      Offer Carl Pavano a $1 million contract. (He’ll decline – but offer anyway)

5)      Decline arbitration on Drew Butera, Accept Brian Duensing ($1.3MM) and Jared Burton ($2.1MM)

Trade Market Moves

I’m working on the following assumption – I’m trading Denard Span, Justin Morneau and Josh Willingham this offseason. With that in mind, I:

Trade: Denard Span & Alexi Casilla

To: Cincinatti Reds

For: Robert Stephenson & DiDi Gregorius 

Rationale: The Reds need a leadoff bat and another outfielder. Span gives them both of those in a nicely compensated, team controlled player. Casilla is extra roster fodder, but would add nice depth to the Braves’ bench.

Stephenson is an up and coming starting pitcher who compares favorably to Matt Garza. He only has 1 year of experience under his belt, but he’s projected to be on a Major League roster as soon as 2013. He’d quickly be the best pitching prospect on the Twins and would likely find his way onto the starting rotation by the All-Star break.

Gregorius is a talented SS prospect who screams “Twins baseball” he has average range at short with a solid arm and a good bat. He hits for average, has speed and has the potential to be a power hitter. He’d slot right into the starting SS role on day 1. With Cozart blocking SS and Frazier looking like the future at 3B for the Reds, they may be willing to part with a top prospect to fill a need.

Trade: Josh Willingham

To: Atlanta Braves

For: Alex Wood, Sean Gilmartin & Paul Maholm

Rationale: The Braves need an outfielder and a big bat like Willingham’s is always welcome in a lineup. The Braves would only have to part with two prospects, Sean Gilmartin being the most valuable of those – he’s likely to make a big league appearance in 2013, but is more likely to be Major League ready in 2014. Alex Wood is a solid pitching prospect who is probably 3 years away from the majors.

The biggest addition for the Twins would be Maholm, who would provide the reliability their staff so desperately needed in 2012.

Trade: Justin Morneau

To: Boston Red Sox

For: Anthony Ranaudo & Chris Carpenter

Rationale: The Red Sox dumped millions of payroll and got rid of aging players who were no longer pulling their weight. That being said, they still need a big bat and some veteran leadership. If the Twins split Morneau’s $14 million 2013 number with Boston, they’d likely get two prospects back for their long time slugger.

Ranaudo has a checkered injury history, suffering an elbow injury in 2011 and only fully recovering late in 2012. With zero depth, the Twins are likely to take a chance on the prospect recovering fully.

Carpenter, the player traded to Boston by the Cubs in the Theo Epstein deal, was nearly ready to debut in 2012 before an injury shut him down for the year. He’d be Major League ready in 2013 and a contender for a starting spot.

Free Agent Shopping:

The big name guys are going to price themselves out of the Twins’ market, but the Twins have the ability to poach some good minor league prospects for a little bit of cash. A decent number of AAA pitchers have opted into free agency, I would pursue:

Evan Meek

Randy Wells

Zach Kroenke

Garrett Olson

With the Twins pitching staff in shambles, minor league pitchers would likely be encouraged to sign with the Twins – as Minnesota would give them the best shot at a starting gig.

There are a few big league players who I’d give a look to as well. Those players are:

Shaun Marcum

Joe Blanton

Carlos Villanueva

Annibal Sanchez

On the offensive side of things, I’d look at a few middle infield options including Stephen Drew, Kelly Johnson or Jose Lopez. I’m not shopping for a starter, simply depth for the middle infield.

Of the targeted players, let’s assume the following signings:

Randy Wells (2 years, $750,000)

Evan Meek (1 year, $600,000)

Zach Kroenke (2 years, $650,000)

Kelly Johnson (1 year, $2 million)

Carlos Villanueva (2 years, $4 million)

Joe Blanton (2 years, $5 million)

That would put total offseason spending at $13 – factor out the $7 million saved in the Morneau deal along with Span’s contract and Willingham’s deal ($11-$12) and the Twins are essentially dropping an extra $1 million after signings (obviously not factoring minor league deals / contracts acquired).

Spring Training Outlook:

Catchers: Joe Mauer, Ryan Doumit, Chris Hermann

1B: Chris Parmelee, Joe Mauer

2B: Jamey Carroll, Brian Dozier, Kelly Johnson

SS: DiDi Gregorius, Pedro Florimon, Eduardo Escobar

3B: Trevor Plouffe, Jose Lopez, Jamey Carroll

LF: Aaron Hicks, Oswaldo Arcia, Joe Benson

CF: Ben Revere, Darin Mastroianni

RF: Aaron Hicks, Oswaldo Arcia, Joe Benson

DH: Ryan Doumit

Rotation:

Scott Diamond

Joe Blanton

Carlos Villanueva

Zach Kroenke

Evan Meek

Randy Wells

Chris Carpenter

Paul Maholm

Robert Stephenson

Liam Hendriks

Cole DeVries

PJ Walters

Scott Baker

Samuel Deduno

I’d let the pitching staff sort itself out – obvious front runners for spots would be Blanton, Villanueva, Diamond and Maholm but the rookies and minor leaguers would get an equal opportunity.

As for the newly opened outfield spots, I’m letting Arcia, Hicks and Benson fight for two of them. The team has outfield depth and all three have shown that they may be ready. Let spring training decide for the third player going down to AAA with the understanding that they’re an injury away from the roster.

On opening day 2013, my revamped roster would look as such:

C: Joe Mauer

1B: Chris Parmelee

2B: Jamey Carroll

SS: DiDi Gregorius

3B: Trevor Plouffe

LF: Oswaldo Arcia

CF: Ben Revere

RF: Aaron Hicks

DH: Ryan Doumit

Bench: Darin Mastroianni, Kelly Johnson, Chris Hermann, Eduardo Escobar

The starting offense changes very little from 2012. Gregorius, newly acquired from the Reds, is penciled in at SS while the outfield is occupied by young stars Hicks and Arica. Chris Hermann makes the team as the third catcher (which Ron Gardenhire seems stuck on holding) but adds the bonus of being an outfielder to the bench. Jose Lopez and Eduard Escobar and nice players off the bench, and are good for defensive substitutions or to spell the starter’s name on a day off.  

The big change, however, comes with the starting rotation. The 2013 Twins’ rotation (as repaired by me) would look like this:

1. Scott Diamond
2. Paul Maholm
3. Chris Carpenter
4. Carlos Villanueva
5. Joe Blanton

No, there’s not a true ‘ace’ on the staff – but the rotation is composed of 3 #3 starters and 2 #4 guys – that’s better then the 5 #7 starters the team was rolling out in 2012. Guys like Stephenson, Hendriks, Ranuado, Gilmartin, DeVries and Baker will be waiting in AAA. If any starter should falter, the Twins would now have options in filling their ‘pen.

I’d expect Scott Baker to be back to full strength by the middle of 2013, at which time he’d be plugged into the rotation for whichever starter was struggling. Kyle Gibson, also coming off of Tommy John surgery, would be another pitcher that could make his debut at the midpoint of the season.

The big pitcher here is while the Twins rotation isn’t instantly the best in the AL, it is a lot more reliable than it has been in years past. In addition, the team would have depth that has been unheard of over the past two to three seasons – including a decent stable of up and coming players for 2014 and beyond.

Finally, let’s look at the opening day bullpen:

LR: Brian Duensing

LR: Anthony Swarzak

LR: Randy Wells

MR: Tyler Robertson / Lefty free agent

MR: Matt Capps

MR: Alex Burnett

MR: Casey Fien

SU: Jared Burton

CL: Glen Perkins

Very little changes from 2012 – the only addition being Randy Wells at long relief (in place of Jeff Gray) The bullpen was one of the nice spots for the Twins in 2012, adding Capps as a simple middle reliever greatly boosts the depth for the ‘pen as well.

There you have it – if I were GM for a day, that’s how I’d attack the Minnesota Twins’ woes. By moving on from valuable veterans (Span, Morneau, Willingham) I added depth in the minors (Stephenson, Wood, Gilmartin, Ranaudo) brought youth to the ballclub (Hicks, Arcia) filled the rotation with reliable starters and added depth to the minors with affordable veterans.

Is this likely to happen? No, of course not – if I was able to build a team effortlessly like I’ve done above I’d have a job with the Twins instead of merely writing about them – but my large point here is this; it’s not going to take big splashes to fix this team. Shipping off some players, promoting younger talent and acquiring as many ‘low key’ options as possible will quickly refill the Twins depth issues and give them talent on the Major League roster.

Final Grades: Offense

Last night, the Twins’ 2012 season ended with a whimper. Outside of Ben Revere, the Twins offense failed to show up to Toronto and lost a snoozer of a game 2-1. Scott Diamond unfairly took the loss in front of his “home crowd” and the Twins were mercifully released from the drudgery that has been this season.

At the halfway mark of this year, I gave out ‘midterm’ grades to all of the Twins position players. Now that the season is complete, it’s time to evaluate how all of these players finished the year.

We’ll begin with the offense, which improved greatly from 2011. They scored 701 runs up from 619 the year before and the defense (outside of the pitching) made great strides as well.

Remember, a traditional ‘C’ grade is average. A is outstanding, B is good, C is average, D is below average and F is terrible. With the rules in place, let’s look at how everyone finished.

Head of the Class:

These players are the ‘A-list’ of the 2012 Twins. Without them this team would have been much worse off (scary thought).

Joe Mauer

Final Stats:

147 Games (Career High) 641 Plate Appearances (Career High)

.319 Batting Average / .416 On Base Percentage (League Leader) / .446 Slugging

10 Home Runs / 85 Runs Batted In / 31 Doubles / 4 Triples / 90 Walks

Wins above replacement: 4.1

Joe Mauer is one of the best players in baseball when healthy – and this year he was healthy for nearly the entire season. His .319 batting average put him in the top 5 in the AL while his .416 OBP was the best in the league. Mauer’s value to the Twins goes well beyond his 4.1 WAR – he’s the team’s foundation and the face of the franchise. Fans who boo Mauer because of the size of his contract are simply proving their ignorance on the true value of the game’s best catcher.

Midterm grade: A

Final Grade: A+

***

Denard Span

Final Stats:

128 Games / 568 Plate Appearances

.283 Batting Average / .342 On Base Percentage / .395 Slugging

4 Home Runs / 41 Runs Batted In / 38 Doubles / 4 Triples / 17 Stolen Bases

Wins Above Replacement: 4.8

There’s a reason Denard Span is viewed as the Twins player most likely to be moved this offseason – he’s the second best player on the team and the first player that isn’t “untouchable”. Span, despite being injured during August, put together another solid year in CF for the Twins. His unwillingness to steal bases is slightly concerning considering the potential threat he can be at the top of the lineup, but all of his other numbers are exactly what you want out of a leadoff man. The Twins can be good with Span – but due to their needs, they may have to try to be good without him.

Midterm grade: B

Final grade: A

***

Jamey Carroll

Final Stats:

138 Games / 537 Plate Appearances

.268 Batting Average / .343 On Base Percentage / .317 Slugging

1 Home Run / 40 Runs Batted In / 18 Doubles / 1 Triple / 9 Stolen Bases

Wins Above Replacement: 3.1

I’ll admit, when I started composing this list on paper (without yet looking at the stats) I had Jamey Carroll in the middle of the pack. Based purely on his offensive numbers, that argument is valid – he hit for league average, got on base at an average clip and didn’t really ‘wow’ in the slugging category. He wasn’t an RBI machine and wasn’t exactly a threat to steal bases. However, after diving deeper into the stats and putting a focus on the defensive side of the game, it became clear that Carroll was the third best player on the 2012 Twins roster. His ability to play 2B, SS and 3B – and play all of them well – was a huge value to the Twins. He committed only 12 errors on 582 chances (balls hit to him) this season (between all 3 positions) that’s a fielding percentage of .98%. His solid defense immediately patched a leaking middle infield and his versatility gave the Twins much needed depth.

Midterm grade: B

Final grade: B+

***

Josh Willingham

Final Stats:

145 Games / 615 Plate Appearances

.260 Batting Average / .366 On Base Percentage / .524 Slugging

35 Home Runs / 110 Runs Batted In / 30 Doubles / 1 Triple / 76 Walks

Wins Above Replacement: 2.9

Yes, two of the five best players on the 2012 Twins roster were free agent acquisitions this offseason. Josh Willingham stepped into Target Field and immediately called it his own. His pull power meant that well driven balls to left field became fan souvenirs. His defense is somewhat lacking, but his offensive production filled a void the Twins desperately needed. Willingham’s future with the Twins may be as more of a DH than LF, but so long as his bat is in the lineup; the Twins are a better ballclub.

Midterm grade: A

Final grade: A

***

Ben Revere

Final Stats:

124 Games / 553 Plate Appearances

.294 Batting Average / .333 On Base Percentage / .342 Slugging

0 Home Runs / 32 Runs Batted In / 13 Doubles / 6 Triples / 40 Stolen Bases

Wins Above Replacement: 2.4

Here are the things Ben Revere is not: a power hitter. Here is what Ben Revere IS: a singles hitter, a dangerous player on the base paths, and a defensive star in the outfield. His numbers outside his batting average are not entirely impressive – a player with his speed should have more doubles and triples. If Revere ever learns to drive the ball, he could become an All-Star caliber player with his talent. As of now he’s a very good singles hitter that teams will not want on the bases. His defensive range (weak arm included) and speed make him the Twins 5th best player this year.

Midterm grade: B+

Final grade: A-

***

Solid ‘Students’

While these players didn’t end up at the top of the list, their presence on the roster is a bonus for the club. These are the ‘B’ students (to continue with our grading analogy) they’re good – but not quite great.

Justin Morneau

Final Stats:

134 Games / 570 Plate Appearances

.267 Batting Average / .333 On Base Percentage / .440 Slugging

19 Home Runs / 77 Runs Batted In / 26 Doubles / 2 Triples / 102 Strikeouts

Wins Above Replacement: .9

Morneau finally had his first healthy season in three years – playing in his most games since 2009. After starting the season talking of retirement if his concussion problems lingered, Morneau ended the year looking like he was almost back to the player the Twins need him to be. The ‘almost’ is key here, however. For those who watched a majority of the Twins games this season – it was pretty clear that Morneau wasn’t entirely back. His plate discipline had eroded greatly (evidenced by the 102 strikeouts) and he flat out missed many balls that he would normally send into the 4^th row of the outfield. His timing and plate vision SHOULD come back the longer he feels healthy and he looks like he’s primed to have a solid 2013 at first base (assuming the Twins don’t trade him this offseason). It was refreshing to have Morneau back in the lineup, but he wasn’t really and truly ‘back’ to his normal self, thus downgrading his final standings to 6^th best offensive player on the team.

Midterm grade: B-

Final grade: B

***

Ryan Doumit

Final Stats:

134 Games / 528 Plate Appearances

.275 Batting Average / .320 On Base Percentage / .461 Slugging

18 Home Runs / 75 Runs Batted In / 34 Doubles / 1 Triple / 98 Strikeouts

Wins Above Replacement: 1

Full disclosure – I’m not a big Ryan Doumit fan. There’s an element to his game that you can’t really measure and is only gauged by the eyeball test – clutch. Doumit is the perfect example of how a player can put up great numbers, but not be a clutch player. In situations where the Twins needed a hit – Doumit has been prone to strikeout. When the Twins are cruising with a big lead or being crushed behind a big deficit – Doumit swings a mighty bat. That being said, the numbers don’t lie and my bias against him can’t ignore the fact that as a backup catcher and DH, Doumit is much better than what the Twins have had in the past. What you see whit Doumit is what you’re going to get – he’s averaged 48% swing percentage in his career, he tallies up strikeouts, yet he has the bat to help score some runs. I’ll grudgingly admit that Doumit is the 7^th best player on this offense (just don’t play him in the OF any more!)

Midterm grade: B

Final grade: B

***

Trevor Plouffe

Final Stats:

119 Games / 465 Plate Appearances

.235 Batting Average / .301 On Base Percentage / .455 Slugging

24 Home Runs / 55 Runs Batted In / 19 Doubles / 1 Triple / 92 Strikeouts

Wins Above Replacement: .9

It’s tough to grade Trevor Plouffe as he had 3 separate ‘mini-seasons’ – there was the atrocious start to the year where he barely hit his weight in average and looked lost in the outfield (F). Then, after moving to 3B, Plouffe found his bat and CRUSHED the ball for the middle months of the season (A). Finally, Plouffe jammed his thumb in an at bat and missed a months worth of games (Inc.) upon returning, Plouffe said he was still playing with pain and it showed – his at bats ended in weaker fly balls and he was aggressively swinging at nearly everything that came within 5 feet of the zone (C-). When you total it all up, it’s hard to figure out who the real Trevor Plouffe is. I think the end of season numbers were due in large part to his injury while the start of season numbers were due to on stability at where he was playing. The mid season numbers are likely an inflated occurrence – Plouffe isn’t going to regularly smash the ball like he did in June. In the end, Plouffe is a slightly above average player with the potential to morph into a star or fade into “Danny Valencia” territory. 2013 is a HUGE year for Plouffe.

Midterm grade: B

Final grade: C+

***

Darin Mastroianni

Final Stats:

77 Games / 186 Plate Appearances

.252 Batting Average / .328 On Base Percentage / .350 Slugging

3 Home Runs / 17 Runs Batted In / 3 Doubles / 2 Triples / 21 Stolen Bases

Wins Above Replacement: .8

Here’s a philosophical question: if you’re 9^th best offensive player is the team’s 4^th outfielder, does that mean that your teams offense is underwhelming, or is that 4^th outfielder simply that valuable? In Mastroianni’s case, it’s the latter. Acting as the 4^th outfielder, Mastroianni proved to be a fearsome force on the basepaths (swiping ½ as many bags as Revere with 47 fewer games to do so) while showing decent plate discipline and the ability to hit for power. His above average defense solid bat make his a great offensive chip for the Twins. While he’s not quite a full time outfielder, he’s certainly great off the bench.

Midterm grade: C+

Final grade: B-

(Note: Yes, Plouffe’s final grade is lower than Mastroianni’s and yet he sits above him – I did this simply because Plouffe is an everyday player while Mastroianni is not. That playing difference gives Plouffe an edge)

***

Best of the Rest:

Every team has them – role players, roster filler – guys who have value but are not stars nor are they key components to the team. Essentially, if something better comes along, their team will take it. These are the league average guys, key to a winning club, but not the foundation you want to build on.

Chris Parmelee

Final Stats:

64 Games / 210 Plate Appearances

.229 Batting Average / .290 On Base Percentage / .380 Slugging

5 Home Runs / 20 Runs Batted In / 10 Doubles / 2 Triples / 13 Walks

Wins Above Replacement: -.6

You can’t help but feel a little sorry for Parmelee. He’s bounced around the minors so much this season that it’s no wonder why he couldn’t settle into a solid groove. His bat in the minors was simply too good NOT to be on the big league roster, but the Twins didn’t really have a place to play him. That resulted in him bouncing between 1B and RF for much of September. Like Plouffe, I think Parmelee struggled to settle in without a dedicated position. The kid has talent – that much is obvious – he can hit for power, he uses the whole field and has good plate discipline (although he started to show weaknesses with that towards the end of this season). His defense is above average; his bat has potential to grow. Those reasons alone put him at #10 on the Twins offensive list this season.

Midterm grade: C-

Final grade: C

***

Alexi Casilla

Final Stats:

106 Games / 326 Plate Appearances

.241 Batting Average / .282 On Base Percentage / .321 Slugging

1 Home Run / 30 RBI / 17 Doubles / 2 Triples / 21 Stolen Bases / 52 Strikeouts

Wins Above Replacement: 2

Coming into this list, I was honestly indifferent in regards to Alexi Casilla. I viewed him as a veteran who had his chance to earn a full time starting spot over the past few seasons, but he simply never latched on. However, after looking at the numbers, I sort of feel sorry for Casilla. He’s likely on his way out as he’s arbitration eligible and will cost the Twins between $5 and $6 million next season. The team obviously doesn’t want to spend that much money on a player who has been relegated to bench duty.

That’s the issue that makes me feel sorry for Casilla – looking at his numbers – he SHOULDN’T have been on bench duty. He preformed better than both Brian Dozier and Pedro Florimon this season. His defense was very solid during his appearances at 2B – he doesn’t have the flexibility to play SS, but he could have very easily started at 2B while Carroll shifted to SS. Casilla was likely relegated to Gardenhire’s doghouse for much of the season (due in large part to his rising strikeout numbers, I’m sure) and simply didn’t get a chance to win the 2B job after spring training. Looking at the big picture (in hindsight) it looks like Casilla very much deserved that chance.

Midterm grade: D

Final grade: C

***

Pedro Florimon

Final Stats:

43 Games / 150 Plate Appearances

.219 Batting Average / .272 On Base Percentage / .307 Slugging

1 Home Run / 10 Runs Batted In / 5 Doubles / 2 Triples / 30 Strikeouts

Wins Above Replacement: .8

Florimon was a late season promotion, called up simply because Brain Dozier couldn’t seem to put a solid offensive or defensive performance together. Florimon has been the defensive fix the team has been looking for at SS – showing great range and the ability to make some difficult throws. The issue is Florimon’s offense, which is essentially non-existent. He has decent speed, but if he’s not on base to utilize it – that aspect of his game is worthless. He swings too much at bad pitches and doesn’t have the bat to get on base with any regularity. He’s the front runner for starting SS next season and the team’s 11^th best offensive player simply due to a complete lack of other options. 

Midterm grade: NA

Final grade: C-

***

Brian Dozier

Final Stats:

84 Games / 340 Plate Appearances

.234 Batting Average / .271 On Base Percentage / .332 Slugging

6 Home Runs / 33 Runs Batted In / 11 Doubles / 1 Triple / 58 Strikeouts

Wins Above Replacement: .5

Dozier broke onto the scene shortly after the season started and looked like an offensive force. His bat was solid enough that the Twins were able to tolerate his less than stellar defense. As the season progressed, however, Dozier’s bat came back to earth while his defense continued to suffer. During his last few weeks in the big leagues, Dozier was swinging at nearly every pitch and simply giving at bats away. That fact combined with his poor defense promoted Pedro Florimon and likely cost Dozier a chance at being the Twins starting SS in 2013. If he can get control of one aspect of his game (more than likely his bat), he has a chance at starting at 2B in 2013.

Midterm grade: C

Final grade: D

***

‘Other’

These are the guys who need extra tutoring or are otherwise over their heads. They’d benefit by being sent back a grade or being held for another year…

Drew Butera

.198 Batting Average / .270 On Base Percentage / .279 Slugging

Wins Above Replacement: .2

Butera (who I affectionately call ‘Butters’) is a great defensive catcher and game manager, he knows how to work with pitchers and get the most out of them. He seems to be able to help the younger guys (Hendriks, De Vries) keep their games under control. Offensively, however, Butters is horrid. He’ll be a great coach, he’s a terrible offensive player.

Midterm grade: NA

Final grade: F

***

Matt Carson

.227 Batting Average / .245 On Base Percentage / .242 Slugging

Wins Above Replacement: 0

Carson had a chance to carve out a spot on next season’s roster as a veteran pinch hitter / spot starter. Instead he managed to be utterly average. His arm is excellent in the outfield (I’d love to be able to give Ben Revere his arm) but his bat is simply pedestrian. He’s not an offensive option for a team already loaded with outfield depth.

Midterm grade: NA

Final grade: F

***

Chris Hermann

.056 Batting Average / .105 On Base Percentage / .191 Slugging

Hermann had (maybe still has) a chance to get on the 2013 opening day roster. He performs in two areas that the Twins desperately need the depth – he’s a backup catcher (since the team seems determined to carry 3 of them, they need that) and he can play in the outfield. This versatility would make him an instant upgrade over Drew Butera – unfortunately, Hermann managed to hit a paltry .056 – that’s simply too horrid to give him any roster spot next season, even if he played 9 different positions. He only had 17 plate appearances, so the numbers aren’t quite as bad as they look – but they’re not great right now.

Midterm grade: NA

Final grade: Incomplete

***

The Dropouts

These guys are gone. Failed out or otherwise vanished. Their names won’t appear in your graduation program nor will anyone really realize they’re gone.

Luke Hughes

Sean Burroughs

Clete Thomas

Eric Komatsu

Danny Valencia

The Final Tally:

At midterm this season, I had the Twins players ranked with – 2 A’s, 6 B’s, 3 C’s, 1 D, 2 F’s. They finished the year with 4 A’s, 4 B’s, 4 C’s, 1 D, 2 F’s, 1 Incomplete and 5 dropouts (which are really F’s when you think about it).

Essentially, 2 of the B’s rose above where they were at midseason (Revere, Span) more players were added to the roster that were simply average (Florimon) and a decent group of players simply fell flat on their face (7 total F’s).

The Twins offense is one of their better units heading into 2013 – with 8 outstanding or great players and a solid (4) level of league average talent, the offensive has a lot of upside.

Early next week, I’ll dive into the pitching staff. If you thought 7 offensive F’s was the low point, prepare to be very, very surprised at just how bad things can get.

Revisiting My Spring Training Predictions

As the regular season draws to a close, the MLB playoff picture has nearly crystallized. I thought it would be fun to look back at my early April post simply titled “Predictions sure to go wrong”. In that post, I prognosticated the winners and losers in each division and gave my 2 cents on each team. Today, I’ll paste that original post and add where I was right – and where I was WAY wrong.

AL East:

My Original Prediction:

Yankees 92-70
Rays 85-77
Red Sox 83-79
Blue Jays 82-80
Orioles 65-97

Comments: This is a fairly stacked division. New York added pitching depth around an already solid offense. Tampa Bay is young and scrappy and would run away with a majority of the other divisions if they were suddenly transferred from the AL East. Boston loses out on a playoff spot on the virtue of being not quite as deep as Tampa Bay and playing in that tough division. Toronto is trending up, but still not as good as Tampa, Boston or New York and the Orioles...Well, there's always next year.

Where I was right:

The Yankees being a 90+ game winner (I nearly nailed their record!), Tamp Bay being a tough contender (I sold them short on wins) and the Blue Jays trending up (they were unit Bautista went down with an injury)

Where I was wrong:

I missed badly on Baltimore. When you look at their run differential and their record in 1 run games, it’s easy to say that a lot of the O’s success is due to sheer luck – but the fact remains that they’ve won the these games. They’re certainly not the bottom feeder I thought they would be.

Speaking of bottom feeders; Boston – man oh man, did I miss on the Red Sox. I didn’t think they were a playoff team, in fact I thought they would be a middle of the pack AL club, but I did not see them simply collapsing to a 90+ loss season. Ouch.


Al Central

My Original Prediction:

Tigers 88-74
Twins 86-76
Indians 81-81
Royals 70-92
White Sox 66-96

Comments: I'm of the firm belief that Detroit will not run away and hide with the central crown. This team may be an offensive juggernaut - but it plays 81 games in a park that doesn't favor hitters. In addition, the Tigers may be rolling out one of the worst defensive lineups known to man. The Twins were not as bad as that 63-99 W/L split made them look last year. Up until the All-Star break they were in contention for the division despite not having Mauer, Morneau or Span for much of the year. This team is healthy, deeper and primed to make things interesting in the central. As far as I'm concerned, you could flip-flop the Indians and Twins this year, both will be competitive and have shot at the wild card. (I'm just biased towards the Twins, so they win out). The Royals are a popular pick for the "up-and-coming" title this year. I'm not buying it. They'll be decent, but they're not a contender yet. Chicago is rebuilding, even if they won't admit it up front, this team isn't very good.

Where I was right:

Detroit did not run away with the Central. I was adamant about this for much of the pre-season, I didn’t feel they had the defense or pitching to simply run away and hide with the division. I nearly nailed their W/L total and summed them up nicely in the spring.

I also predicted the KC mediocrity almost to a ‘T’. They were a popular dark horse pick to contend, but the Royals just didn’t seem ready.

Where I was wrong:

I was overly confident with the Twins. I assumed the starting pitching would simply be league average and that would allow the Twins to hang around. In my defense, had the starting pitching been average or even slightly below average, the Twins WOULD be hanging around the division. But, the pitching was horrid and the Twins are bottom feeders. Missed them by a large margin this year.

Same goes for Cleveland. I liked their lineup and saw them being a tougher team than most did. I thought at the very least they were a .500 ballclub. In reality, they’re just as bad as Minnesota.

Finally, a brief hat tip to the White Sox. I had them pegged as being utterly atrocious this year and instead they hung around the division until the final three games (leading most of the way). I didn’t see this team as a contender – but they certainly could be listed as one of the better teams in the AL.

Al West

My Original Prediction:

Rangers 90-72
Angels 85-77
A's 70-92
Mariners 64-98

Comments: No, signing Albert Pujols doesn't instantly make the Angels my World Series pick - in fact with the depth of the AL and a very, very good Rangers team in front of them (two AL pennants in two years is not an accident) I think they'll barely scrape into the playoffs (Tiebreaker with Tampa Bay). The A's and Mariners are also rans. This is a top heavy division that will be very entertaining throughout the year.

Where I was right:

The Rangers are good – I don’t really give myself credit for hitting that one. But, it still counts as being right.

The Angels didn’t instantly win the division, in fact, they didn’t even make the playoffs (missed the playoff part – so I was 1 for 2 on the other LA team)

I sold the Mariners short on wins, but I nailed their general season “also rans”.

Where I was wrong:

Oakland. Holy cow! I didn’t see them putting together a run like they have. They’re playoff bound and have a chance to win the division in the final two games. That’s unbelievable when you stop and look at their roster, but that’s how Oakland operates. Kudos to the A’s.

NL East

My Original Prediction:

Phillies 90-72
Marlins 88-74
Nationals 81-81
Braves 78-84
Mets 70-92

Comments: I think the Phillies played a little over their heads last year. They are still the best team in the NL East, (and probably all of the NL) but I don't think they're head and shoulders above the rest of their improved division. I like what the Marlins did this off season and I think they'll be just good enough to keep things interesting if not steal a wild card come October. The Nationals are a very good young team that is not quite ready for the playoffs - but look out for them in 2013. I feel like the Braves overplayed their record last year and will fall back slightly due to a tougher division. The Mets are still rebuilding and don't even look good on paper. In hindsight, I feel like 70 wins was being overly generous...

Where I was right:

Nowhere! I missed on every team. I kick myself because I originally had Washington winning the division and then talked myself out of it. I penciled the Nat’s for 88 wins and thought “they could win the East” and then said “No, too young” and dropped them to 81-81. Dumb move on my part – always stick with your gut!

Oh, I suppose I was spot on with the Mets winning around 70 games – but that feels like a hollow victory.

Where I was wrong:

Everywhere! The Marlins offseason moves turned to dust, the Braves are playoff bound and look good, the Phililes are far from one of the best teams in the NL and the Nationals are good enough to win now.

NL Central:

My Original Prediction:

Reds: 90-72
Cardinals: 81-81
Pirates: 78-84
Brewers: 70-92
Cubs: 68-94
Astros: 50-112


Comments: The Reds are the best team in a bad division. As such, I look for them to run away and hide with the division lead pretty early on. The Cardinals cannot overcome the loss of Pujols and flounder at .500 for the year. Likewise, the Brewers are missing a key piece without Fielder and shrink back without his bat. The Cubs are in year one of a likely 3 year rebuilding plan and will likely be out of the race by June. Houston...well, sorry Astros fans, but things don't get any easier. You're moving to a stacked AL West next year and are seriously devoid of any Major League talent. This is a bad team.

Where I was right:

The Reds are the best team in a bad division (nailed it!)

The Cubs are out of contention by June (nailed it!)

The Brewers miss Fielders bat and shrink back (low-balled the wins, but the premise is correct)

The Astros are a bad team (nailed it!)
The Pirates were close to .500, but not quite there (nailed it!)

Where I was wrong:

I did not think the Cardinals could recover without their long time manager and best player. They’ve struggled this season like I thought they might, but they’ve put together enough wins to be on the cusp of a playoff birth.

NL West

My Original Prediction:

Dodgers 86-76
Giants 85-77
Diamondbacks 82-80
Rockies 75-87
Padres 70-92

Comments: I'm so torn on this division that I could see the Rockies winning the whole thing and not be surprised at all. It's a very competitive division in so much as there are no dominant teams. The Dodgers have a few stars in Kemp and Kershaw, the Giants have great pitching and Posey, the D-Backs are young and proved they could be elite last year. The Rockies have Cuddyer and Tulo and a reliable pitching rotation. In short, plug any team (outside of San Diego...sorry Padres fans) in the top slot here. I think this will be the most entertaining division this year.

Where I was right:

The West was a competitive division – the Giants did win on great pitching and Buster Posey. The Dodgers have a chance to finish with the exact record I predicted and the Diamondbacks showed that their young team is a threat to contend. The Padres finished with nearly the same number of wins I originally predicted.

Where I was wrong:

The Rockies were a tire fire – not a contending team.

Original Playoff Predictions:

AL:

Yankees – East

Tigers – Central

Rangers – West

Wild Card 1 – Angels

Wild Card 2 – Twins

NL:

Phillies – East

Reds – Central

Dodgers – West

Wild Card 1 – Giants

Wild Card 2 – Marlins

Actual Playoff Lineup:

AL:

Yankees / Orioles – East

Tigers – Central

Rangers / A’s – West

Wild Card 1 – Yankees / Orioles loser

Wild Card 2 – Rangers / A’s loser

I hit on 3 of the 5 teams. 60% accuracy prior to the season even starting isn’t too bad – right?

NL:

Nationals – East

Reds – Central

Giants – West

Wild Card 1 – Braves

Wild Card 2 – Cardinals / Dodgers

The Dodgers aren’t likely to make the playoffs – so I’m not counting them on my total. That means I hit 2 of the 5. 40% - not as hot. Oh well, can’t win them all.

It just goes to show that the baseball season can go in a lot of unpredictable directions. The teams that win the offseason (Angels, Marlins) aren’t always the shoe-ins that everyone assumes they’ll be.

I’ll review my original playoff predictions at the end of this week and post new / updated predictions once the field is set! Enjoy the last few days of the regular season!