GM for a Day: How to Fix the Minnesota Twins

I’m putting on my ‘General Manager’ hat today and pretending to be Terry Ryan. I’ve got a ballclub that’s finished last in the American League over the past two seasons. I have a solid offensive framework, but no pitching staff to account for. I have a superstar at catcher, but I don’t want him to catch any longer. In short, I have a mess on my hands. My job is potentially on the line if the team fails to climb out of the cellar yet again, but the free agent market is sparse in talent and the cream of the crop is sure to quickly move beyond what my owner is willing to spend. How do I rebuild a once proud franchise in one season, without breaking the bank? Here’s how:

In House Measures:

1)      Decline Scott Baker’s option. $9.5 million for a pitcher coming off of Tommy John surgery is simply not happening. What we will do is negotiate with Baker and offer him a much lower ($1.5 million base) contract with heavy incentives for innings pitched and ERA (with the ability to work that contract up to $3.5 million).

2)      Buyout Matt Capps’ contract for $250,000 – and resign him to a much more reasonable $1.5 - $2 million 2 year deal. The Twins have been loyal to Capps over the past two seasons, and that loyalty should buy them a hometown discount. This contract is offered to Capps with the understanding that he is NOT the closer.

3)      Accept Alexi Casilla’s $1.8 million (estimated) arbitration figure.

4)      Offer Carl Pavano a $1 million contract. (He’ll decline – but offer anyway)

5)      Decline arbitration on Drew Butera, Accept Brian Duensing ($1.3MM) and Jared Burton ($2.1MM)

Trade Market Moves

I’m working on the following assumption – I’m trading Denard Span, Justin Morneau and Josh Willingham this offseason. With that in mind, I:

Trade: Denard Span & Alexi Casilla

To: Cincinatti Reds

For: Robert Stephenson & DiDi Gregorius 

Rationale: The Reds need a leadoff bat and another outfielder. Span gives them both of those in a nicely compensated, team controlled player. Casilla is extra roster fodder, but would add nice depth to the Braves’ bench.

Stephenson is an up and coming starting pitcher who compares favorably to Matt Garza. He only has 1 year of experience under his belt, but he’s projected to be on a Major League roster as soon as 2013. He’d quickly be the best pitching prospect on the Twins and would likely find his way onto the starting rotation by the All-Star break.

Gregorius is a talented SS prospect who screams “Twins baseball” he has average range at short with a solid arm and a good bat. He hits for average, has speed and has the potential to be a power hitter. He’d slot right into the starting SS role on day 1. With Cozart blocking SS and Frazier looking like the future at 3B for the Reds, they may be willing to part with a top prospect to fill a need.

Trade: Josh Willingham

To: Atlanta Braves

For: Alex Wood, Sean Gilmartin & Paul Maholm

Rationale: The Braves need an outfielder and a big bat like Willingham’s is always welcome in a lineup. The Braves would only have to part with two prospects, Sean Gilmartin being the most valuable of those – he’s likely to make a big league appearance in 2013, but is more likely to be Major League ready in 2014. Alex Wood is a solid pitching prospect who is probably 3 years away from the majors.

The biggest addition for the Twins would be Maholm, who would provide the reliability their staff so desperately needed in 2012.

Trade: Justin Morneau

To: Boston Red Sox

For: Anthony Ranaudo & Chris Carpenter

Rationale: The Red Sox dumped millions of payroll and got rid of aging players who were no longer pulling their weight. That being said, they still need a big bat and some veteran leadership. If the Twins split Morneau’s $14 million 2013 number with Boston, they’d likely get two prospects back for their long time slugger.

Ranaudo has a checkered injury history, suffering an elbow injury in 2011 and only fully recovering late in 2012. With zero depth, the Twins are likely to take a chance on the prospect recovering fully.

Carpenter, the player traded to Boston by the Cubs in the Theo Epstein deal, was nearly ready to debut in 2012 before an injury shut him down for the year. He’d be Major League ready in 2013 and a contender for a starting spot.

Free Agent Shopping:

The big name guys are going to price themselves out of the Twins’ market, but the Twins have the ability to poach some good minor league prospects for a little bit of cash. A decent number of AAA pitchers have opted into free agency, I would pursue:

Evan Meek

Randy Wells

Zach Kroenke

Garrett Olson

With the Twins pitching staff in shambles, minor league pitchers would likely be encouraged to sign with the Twins – as Minnesota would give them the best shot at a starting gig.

There are a few big league players who I’d give a look to as well. Those players are:

Shaun Marcum

Joe Blanton

Carlos Villanueva

Annibal Sanchez

On the offensive side of things, I’d look at a few middle infield options including Stephen Drew, Kelly Johnson or Jose Lopez. I’m not shopping for a starter, simply depth for the middle infield.

Of the targeted players, let’s assume the following signings:

Randy Wells (2 years, $750,000)

Evan Meek (1 year, $600,000)

Zach Kroenke (2 years, $650,000)

Kelly Johnson (1 year, $2 million)

Carlos Villanueva (2 years, $4 million)

Joe Blanton (2 years, $5 million)

That would put total offseason spending at $13 – factor out the $7 million saved in the Morneau deal along with Span’s contract and Willingham’s deal ($11-$12) and the Twins are essentially dropping an extra $1 million after signings (obviously not factoring minor league deals / contracts acquired).

Spring Training Outlook:

Catchers: Joe Mauer, Ryan Doumit, Chris Hermann

1B: Chris Parmelee, Joe Mauer

2B: Jamey Carroll, Brian Dozier, Kelly Johnson

SS: DiDi Gregorius, Pedro Florimon, Eduardo Escobar

3B: Trevor Plouffe, Jose Lopez, Jamey Carroll

LF: Aaron Hicks, Oswaldo Arcia, Joe Benson

CF: Ben Revere, Darin Mastroianni

RF: Aaron Hicks, Oswaldo Arcia, Joe Benson

DH: Ryan Doumit

Rotation:

Scott Diamond

Joe Blanton

Carlos Villanueva

Zach Kroenke

Evan Meek

Randy Wells

Chris Carpenter

Paul Maholm

Robert Stephenson

Liam Hendriks

Cole DeVries

PJ Walters

Scott Baker

Samuel Deduno

I’d let the pitching staff sort itself out – obvious front runners for spots would be Blanton, Villanueva, Diamond and Maholm but the rookies and minor leaguers would get an equal opportunity.

As for the newly opened outfield spots, I’m letting Arcia, Hicks and Benson fight for two of them. The team has outfield depth and all three have shown that they may be ready. Let spring training decide for the third player going down to AAA with the understanding that they’re an injury away from the roster.

On opening day 2013, my revamped roster would look as such:

C: Joe Mauer

1B: Chris Parmelee

2B: Jamey Carroll

SS: DiDi Gregorius

3B: Trevor Plouffe

LF: Oswaldo Arcia

CF: Ben Revere

RF: Aaron Hicks

DH: Ryan Doumit

Bench: Darin Mastroianni, Kelly Johnson, Chris Hermann, Eduardo Escobar

The starting offense changes very little from 2012. Gregorius, newly acquired from the Reds, is penciled in at SS while the outfield is occupied by young stars Hicks and Arica. Chris Hermann makes the team as the third catcher (which Ron Gardenhire seems stuck on holding) but adds the bonus of being an outfielder to the bench. Jose Lopez and Eduard Escobar and nice players off the bench, and are good for defensive substitutions or to spell the starter’s name on a day off.  

The big change, however, comes with the starting rotation. The 2013 Twins’ rotation (as repaired by me) would look like this:

1. Scott Diamond
2. Paul Maholm
3. Chris Carpenter
4. Carlos Villanueva
5. Joe Blanton

No, there’s not a true ‘ace’ on the staff – but the rotation is composed of 3 #3 starters and 2 #4 guys – that’s better then the 5 #7 starters the team was rolling out in 2012. Guys like Stephenson, Hendriks, Ranuado, Gilmartin, DeVries and Baker will be waiting in AAA. If any starter should falter, the Twins would now have options in filling their ‘pen.

I’d expect Scott Baker to be back to full strength by the middle of 2013, at which time he’d be plugged into the rotation for whichever starter was struggling. Kyle Gibson, also coming off of Tommy John surgery, would be another pitcher that could make his debut at the midpoint of the season.

The big pitcher here is while the Twins rotation isn’t instantly the best in the AL, it is a lot more reliable than it has been in years past. In addition, the team would have depth that has been unheard of over the past two to three seasons – including a decent stable of up and coming players for 2014 and beyond.

Finally, let’s look at the opening day bullpen:

LR: Brian Duensing

LR: Anthony Swarzak

LR: Randy Wells

MR: Tyler Robertson / Lefty free agent

MR: Matt Capps

MR: Alex Burnett

MR: Casey Fien

SU: Jared Burton

CL: Glen Perkins

Very little changes from 2012 – the only addition being Randy Wells at long relief (in place of Jeff Gray) The bullpen was one of the nice spots for the Twins in 2012, adding Capps as a simple middle reliever greatly boosts the depth for the ‘pen as well.

There you have it – if I were GM for a day, that’s how I’d attack the Minnesota Twins’ woes. By moving on from valuable veterans (Span, Morneau, Willingham) I added depth in the minors (Stephenson, Wood, Gilmartin, Ranaudo) brought youth to the ballclub (Hicks, Arcia) filled the rotation with reliable starters and added depth to the minors with affordable veterans.

Is this likely to happen? No, of course not – if I was able to build a team effortlessly like I’ve done above I’d have a job with the Twins instead of merely writing about them – but my large point here is this; it’s not going to take big splashes to fix this team. Shipping off some players, promoting younger talent and acquiring as many ‘low key’ options as possible will quickly refill the Twins depth issues and give them talent on the Major League roster.