Hot Stove, Warming Up

The start of the MLB offseason is usually filled with wild trade proposals and sketchy speculation (See: my posts from last week) but every now and again some rumor site, “unofficial source”, “unnamed GM” or beat reporter will throw something out there that makes a lot of sense. Recently there’s been a few rumors and speculations circling the internet that are worth taking a closer look at.

Rumor #1:

The Rays are looking to trade some of their deep starting pitching for bigger bats.

Multiple sources around the Rays organization have them looking to shop one or more of their starting pitchers to fill the offensive holes in their lineup. While that may sound surprising on the surface, it actually makes a lot of sense.

The Rays are graced with great depth at the pitcher spot, currently sporting David Price, James Shields, Jeremy Hellickson, Wade Davis, Alex Cobb and Chris Archer. Their offensive production has been the issue keeping them from being playoff bound on a regular basis. It makes sense to trade a position of strength for a position of need.

Furthering the reasoning that the Rays may be looking to shop a starter or two is their pending payroll issues. The Rays are the lowest drawing team in baseball and are coming off of one of their largest payrolls in team history. While the contracts of Carlos Pena, Kyle Farnsworth and Luke Scott coming off the books will help their bottom line, the fact remains that through arbitration this winter their payroll will rise by an estimated $50 million for 17 players.

James Shields is one of those players who will see his pay go up this offseason as the pitcher has a $9 million option, and many are thinking that this pay bump will price him out of Tampa Bay.

David Price, who is a relatively affordable (for the Rays) $4.25 million right now, is also expected to see a significant pay bump in the near future. The Rays are rumored to be motivated in moving Price prior to this pay increase.

The Rays need bats and have pitching; the Twins need pitching and have bats. This trade essentially makes itself, right?

While I agree a Rays / Twins deal seems likely to happen this offseason, I don’t think Twins fans should be so quick to say “Twins get David Price!”

Price is a Cy Young caliber pitcher who will command a big return, one the Twins probably won’t be able to compete with. Teams like the Rangers and Red Sox who are graced with position player depth (Elvis Andrus, Mike Olt, Jurikson Profar for the Rangers – everyone on the roster for the Red Sox) that they’d be willing to deal for Price.

That’s why I think the Twins should (and will) focus in on the “other” guy available for Tampa Bay – James Shields.

Shields’ numbers this season weren’t Cy Young caliber, but his 15-10 record and 3.52 ERA was better than any pitcher the Twins rolled out all year. In addition, his 223 strikeouts would have been the best mark by two and a half times (next closes was Scott Diamond with 95).

The Twins would have to negotiate an extension with Shields as part of any trade, but would likely be able to win him over with the guarantee of him being the staff ace. Shields would instantly provide the Twins with a #1 pitcher and would anchor any rotation for Minnesota for the foreseeable future.

So, who do the Twins have that the Rays would want? First and foremost, Denard Span. He’s EXACTLY what the Tampa Bay Rays would want in an outfielder. (Don’t forget, BJ Upton is likely out of Tampa this year too as he is becoming too expensive – the Rays need a center fielder) he’s a reliable bat, great defensive player and (most importantly) is cheap and under team control.

Span alone is not enough to pry Shields from the Rays. They’d need to throw in another big bat. The Twins have options in Josh Willingham, Ryan Doumit, Justin Morneau, Trevor Plouffe and Chris Parmelee.

Willingham would not be a part of any Span trade (the Twins would be giving up too much value) and Doumit doesn’t look like a good fit for the Rays’ needs. Plouffe’s defense keeps him from being a Tampa target and Parmelee is the young player that the Twins need to build around.

That leaves Justin Morneau, who fits the bill perfectly for Tampa. He’s a big bat, would provide a veteran presence on what will likely be a young ballclub and he can play first base. The catch with Morneau is his massive $14 million contract, which would certainly be too much for the team to take on.

The trade goes down if the Twins are willing to eat some of Morneau’s salary, and I think if they’re getting James Shields in return, they’d be willing to do so.

Proposed Trade:

Twins Get: James Shields

Rays Get: Denard Span, Justin Morneau (Twins agree to eat $9 million of Justin’s salary)

Rumor #2

The Marlins are on the verge of another fire sale and Josh Johnson is priority #1 to move.

After sputtering out of the gate in 2012, the new look Miami Marlins are expected to do a lot of retooling this offseason. They’ve been linked to Alex Rodriguez and are frequently tied to any and all big name free agents. These (suggested) moves are being predicated on the Marlins doing their bi-annual “fire sale” and jettisoning some of their talent.

Like the Rays, the Marlins are looking for position player depth to help boost an offense that was simply offensive last season.

Josh Johnson’s 2012 was poor – even by already low Twins pitcher standards. He posted an 8-14 record with a 3.81 ERA and 165 strikeouts. Johnson was coming off of an injury year and was slow to recover early in the season. By mid season he was looking like his usual self, but received very little in the way of support from the Marlins offense.

Johnson’s career numbers (56-37, 3.14 ERA) show that he is a staff ace, one that should rebound after a down year.

What’s helping the Twins is that Johnson is viewed as “plan B” by a lot of teams this season. His down season, bigger contract and injury history have teams a little gun-shy to jump at the Marlins’ offers. That makes Johnson the perfect target for the Twins front office.

Once again, what do the Twins have that the Marlins want? Outfield depth and big bats – mainly, Josh Willingham (who was a Marlin many years ago). I think the Twins could swing the same Denard Span + Justin Morneau deal (without having to eat contract $$) and get Johnson from the Marlins, but let’s assume they make the Shields trade and don’t have either of those players left. Josh Willingham + Casey Fien / Alex Burnett / Brian Duensing would get that deal done, I believe.

Twins Get: Josh Johnson

Marlins Get: Josh Willingham & Alex Burnett or Casey Fien

Predictions (Based on the above rumors)

The Twins won’t come to an agreement with Tampa Bay, who will be able to flip both Shields and Price for more than the Twins will be willing / able to offer.

As such, the Twins pursue Josh Johnson and end up dealing Denard Span and Justin Morneau to the Marlins for their one time ace.

The Twins fill in around Johson by signing Shaun Marcum, Joe Blanton and Scott Baker. 2013’s rotation is:

1. Josh Johnson
2. Scott Diamond
3. Shaun Marcum
4. Scott Baker / Liam Hendriks (Hendriks starts the year, Baker is adding in June)
5. Joe Blanton

That’s not a bad rotation.

Of course, I’d prefer if the Twins could get James Shields as a rotation of:

Shields

Diamond

Marcum

Baker / Hendriks

Blanton

Looks better than one with the relative unknown of Johnson on top.

Of course, in a dream world, the Twins pull off both trades and have a rotation that looks like this:

1. Shields
2. Johnson
3. Diamond
4. Marcum
5. Baker / Hendriks

(In this scenario, Blanton is not signed by the Twins)

The odds of any of these potential trades happening are extremely low – but that’s the beauty of offseason speculation – there’s always a chance. So long as we keep playing with that chance, we’ve got something to entertain ourselves.