Revisiting My Spring Training Predictions

As the regular season draws to a close, the MLB playoff picture has nearly crystallized. I thought it would be fun to look back at my early April post simply titled “Predictions sure to go wrong”. In that post, I prognosticated the winners and losers in each division and gave my 2 cents on each team. Today, I’ll paste that original post and add where I was right – and where I was WAY wrong.

AL East:

My Original Prediction:

Yankees 92-70
Rays 85-77
Red Sox 83-79
Blue Jays 82-80
Orioles 65-97

Comments: This is a fairly stacked division. New York added pitching depth around an already solid offense. Tampa Bay is young and scrappy and would run away with a majority of the other divisions if they were suddenly transferred from the AL East. Boston loses out on a playoff spot on the virtue of being not quite as deep as Tampa Bay and playing in that tough division. Toronto is trending up, but still not as good as Tampa, Boston or New York and the Orioles...Well, there's always next year.

Where I was right:

The Yankees being a 90+ game winner (I nearly nailed their record!), Tamp Bay being a tough contender (I sold them short on wins) and the Blue Jays trending up (they were unit Bautista went down with an injury)

Where I was wrong:

I missed badly on Baltimore. When you look at their run differential and their record in 1 run games, it’s easy to say that a lot of the O’s success is due to sheer luck – but the fact remains that they’ve won the these games. They’re certainly not the bottom feeder I thought they would be.

Speaking of bottom feeders; Boston – man oh man, did I miss on the Red Sox. I didn’t think they were a playoff team, in fact I thought they would be a middle of the pack AL club, but I did not see them simply collapsing to a 90+ loss season. Ouch.


Al Central

My Original Prediction:

Tigers 88-74
Twins 86-76
Indians 81-81
Royals 70-92
White Sox 66-96

Comments: I'm of the firm belief that Detroit will not run away and hide with the central crown. This team may be an offensive juggernaut - but it plays 81 games in a park that doesn't favor hitters. In addition, the Tigers may be rolling out one of the worst defensive lineups known to man. The Twins were not as bad as that 63-99 W/L split made them look last year. Up until the All-Star break they were in contention for the division despite not having Mauer, Morneau or Span for much of the year. This team is healthy, deeper and primed to make things interesting in the central. As far as I'm concerned, you could flip-flop the Indians and Twins this year, both will be competitive and have shot at the wild card. (I'm just biased towards the Twins, so they win out). The Royals are a popular pick for the "up-and-coming" title this year. I'm not buying it. They'll be decent, but they're not a contender yet. Chicago is rebuilding, even if they won't admit it up front, this team isn't very good.

Where I was right:

Detroit did not run away with the Central. I was adamant about this for much of the pre-season, I didn’t feel they had the defense or pitching to simply run away and hide with the division. I nearly nailed their W/L total and summed them up nicely in the spring.

I also predicted the KC mediocrity almost to a ‘T’. They were a popular dark horse pick to contend, but the Royals just didn’t seem ready.

Where I was wrong:

I was overly confident with the Twins. I assumed the starting pitching would simply be league average and that would allow the Twins to hang around. In my defense, had the starting pitching been average or even slightly below average, the Twins WOULD be hanging around the division. But, the pitching was horrid and the Twins are bottom feeders. Missed them by a large margin this year.

Same goes for Cleveland. I liked their lineup and saw them being a tougher team than most did. I thought at the very least they were a .500 ballclub. In reality, they’re just as bad as Minnesota.

Finally, a brief hat tip to the White Sox. I had them pegged as being utterly atrocious this year and instead they hung around the division until the final three games (leading most of the way). I didn’t see this team as a contender – but they certainly could be listed as one of the better teams in the AL.

Al West

My Original Prediction:

Rangers 90-72
Angels 85-77
A's 70-92
Mariners 64-98

Comments: No, signing Albert Pujols doesn't instantly make the Angels my World Series pick - in fact with the depth of the AL and a very, very good Rangers team in front of them (two AL pennants in two years is not an accident) I think they'll barely scrape into the playoffs (Tiebreaker with Tampa Bay). The A's and Mariners are also rans. This is a top heavy division that will be very entertaining throughout the year.

Where I was right:

The Rangers are good – I don’t really give myself credit for hitting that one. But, it still counts as being right.

The Angels didn’t instantly win the division, in fact, they didn’t even make the playoffs (missed the playoff part – so I was 1 for 2 on the other LA team)

I sold the Mariners short on wins, but I nailed their general season “also rans”.

Where I was wrong:

Oakland. Holy cow! I didn’t see them putting together a run like they have. They’re playoff bound and have a chance to win the division in the final two games. That’s unbelievable when you stop and look at their roster, but that’s how Oakland operates. Kudos to the A’s.

NL East

My Original Prediction:

Phillies 90-72
Marlins 88-74
Nationals 81-81
Braves 78-84
Mets 70-92

Comments: I think the Phillies played a little over their heads last year. They are still the best team in the NL East, (and probably all of the NL) but I don't think they're head and shoulders above the rest of their improved division. I like what the Marlins did this off season and I think they'll be just good enough to keep things interesting if not steal a wild card come October. The Nationals are a very good young team that is not quite ready for the playoffs - but look out for them in 2013. I feel like the Braves overplayed their record last year and will fall back slightly due to a tougher division. The Mets are still rebuilding and don't even look good on paper. In hindsight, I feel like 70 wins was being overly generous...

Where I was right:

Nowhere! I missed on every team. I kick myself because I originally had Washington winning the division and then talked myself out of it. I penciled the Nat’s for 88 wins and thought “they could win the East” and then said “No, too young” and dropped them to 81-81. Dumb move on my part – always stick with your gut!

Oh, I suppose I was spot on with the Mets winning around 70 games – but that feels like a hollow victory.

Where I was wrong:

Everywhere! The Marlins offseason moves turned to dust, the Braves are playoff bound and look good, the Phililes are far from one of the best teams in the NL and the Nationals are good enough to win now.

NL Central:

My Original Prediction:

Reds: 90-72
Cardinals: 81-81
Pirates: 78-84
Brewers: 70-92
Cubs: 68-94
Astros: 50-112


Comments: The Reds are the best team in a bad division. As such, I look for them to run away and hide with the division lead pretty early on. The Cardinals cannot overcome the loss of Pujols and flounder at .500 for the year. Likewise, the Brewers are missing a key piece without Fielder and shrink back without his bat. The Cubs are in year one of a likely 3 year rebuilding plan and will likely be out of the race by June. Houston...well, sorry Astros fans, but things don't get any easier. You're moving to a stacked AL West next year and are seriously devoid of any Major League talent. This is a bad team.

Where I was right:

The Reds are the best team in a bad division (nailed it!)

The Cubs are out of contention by June (nailed it!)

The Brewers miss Fielders bat and shrink back (low-balled the wins, but the premise is correct)

The Astros are a bad team (nailed it!)
The Pirates were close to .500, but not quite there (nailed it!)

Where I was wrong:

I did not think the Cardinals could recover without their long time manager and best player. They’ve struggled this season like I thought they might, but they’ve put together enough wins to be on the cusp of a playoff birth.

NL West

My Original Prediction:

Dodgers 86-76
Giants 85-77
Diamondbacks 82-80
Rockies 75-87
Padres 70-92

Comments: I'm so torn on this division that I could see the Rockies winning the whole thing and not be surprised at all. It's a very competitive division in so much as there are no dominant teams. The Dodgers have a few stars in Kemp and Kershaw, the Giants have great pitching and Posey, the D-Backs are young and proved they could be elite last year. The Rockies have Cuddyer and Tulo and a reliable pitching rotation. In short, plug any team (outside of San Diego...sorry Padres fans) in the top slot here. I think this will be the most entertaining division this year.

Where I was right:

The West was a competitive division – the Giants did win on great pitching and Buster Posey. The Dodgers have a chance to finish with the exact record I predicted and the Diamondbacks showed that their young team is a threat to contend. The Padres finished with nearly the same number of wins I originally predicted.

Where I was wrong:

The Rockies were a tire fire – not a contending team.

Original Playoff Predictions:

AL:

Yankees – East

Tigers – Central

Rangers – West

Wild Card 1 – Angels

Wild Card 2 – Twins

NL:

Phillies – East

Reds – Central

Dodgers – West

Wild Card 1 – Giants

Wild Card 2 – Marlins

Actual Playoff Lineup:

AL:

Yankees / Orioles – East

Tigers – Central

Rangers / A’s – West

Wild Card 1 – Yankees / Orioles loser

Wild Card 2 – Rangers / A’s loser

I hit on 3 of the 5 teams. 60% accuracy prior to the season even starting isn’t too bad – right?

NL:

Nationals – East

Reds – Central

Giants – West

Wild Card 1 – Braves

Wild Card 2 – Cardinals / Dodgers

The Dodgers aren’t likely to make the playoffs – so I’m not counting them on my total. That means I hit 2 of the 5. 40% - not as hot. Oh well, can’t win them all.

It just goes to show that the baseball season can go in a lot of unpredictable directions. The teams that win the offseason (Angels, Marlins) aren’t always the shoe-ins that everyone assumes they’ll be.

I’ll review my original playoff predictions at the end of this week and post new / updated predictions once the field is set! Enjoy the last few days of the regular season!