Hot Stove Update

Baseball’s annual winter meetings are entering their second day and the offseason hot stove is beginning to heat up. With their "only" (there’s some skepticism on that front) trade already executed, the Twins are focused in on free agent pitching. With agents and GM’s all meeting in one place, it’s fairly easy to see a team’s plans take shape.

The Twins have been linked as front runners / strong contenders for the following pitchers over the past day and a half:

Brett Meyers
Brandon McCarthy
John Lannan

 

They’ve also been attached to Shaun Marcum, R.A. Dickey (via trade), Francisco Liriano and Brandon Webb.

I’ve maintained for months now that the Twins, who have finished dead last in the AL for two straight years, are not as far off as we might think. In 2011 the story was injuries and an ineffective bullpen. Without any offensive power (Mauer, Span, Morneau were all gone for portions of the season and Kubel missed large chunks of time as well) and a leaky bullpen (Capps struggles were the ‘highlight’) the team simply couldn’t contend. In 2012, the story was starting pitching. The offense was (largely) consistent and the bullpen was much, much better.

I’ve said and I will continue to say that with league average pitching, the Twins could very easily contend for a playoff spot in 2013. Before you scoff, let me state my case. Here is the WAR (Wins above replacement – essentially a stat that shows how many wins a player gained / lost for his team in a given season) of the Twins’ starting pitching in 2012:

Nick Blackburn -2.3 WAR
Carl Pavano - .8 WAR
Liam Hendriks -1.2 WAR
Samuel Deduno .5 WAR
Cole DeVries .2 WAR
Jason Marquis -1.4 WAR
Brian Duensing -1.4 WAR
Anthony Swarzak -.6 WAR
PJ Walters -.6 WAR
Francisco Liriano -.5 WAR

This was the ‘bad’ of the rotation in 2012. (Scott Diamond’s WAR was 2.2) if you throw in the Twins’ worst reliever (Jeff Gray, -.7 WAR) and then tabulate you’ll come up with:

-7.6 WAR (round it up to 8), that means the worst parts of the Twins rotation cost the team 8 games compared to league average pitching (remember, not comparing them against aces, merely ‘average’ pitchers). Now, factor in that most pitchers, so long as they’re reliable, are worth at least .5 to 1 WAR and you can see that the Twins, with slightly better than league average pitching, could improve by as much as 12 wins. That turns last season’s 96 loss team into an 84 loss team.

Playoff bound? Probably not at 84 losses, BUT, you can’t count out momentum and enthusiasm for some games. Towards the end, there’s no denying that the Twins simply quit. Gardenhire stopped playing Morneau, Doumit, Plouffe, Carroll and other starters for large sections of time. You also can’t quantify what starting in such a large hole will do to a team. The first month of the season already saw the Twins in an insurmountable hole behind the division leading Indians and Tigers – essentially putting them out of the race immediately.

Let’s say that a more competitive Twins team has more enthusiasm, drive, x-factor – etc. and they compete in the latter half of the season. This x-factor could be worth as much as 5 to 6 games (best example, the 2012 Orioles. Negative run differential, lackluster offense – but they possessed that "it" factor and managed a playoff run and to tally 93 wins). Let’s say 6 wins are generated from simply being competitive once again. That puts the Twins’ record at 84-78. 88 wins took the AL Central last season and the 85 win White Sox were not out of contention until the very last week of 2012. Simply put, 80+ wins puts the team in contention.

My admittedly long and drawn out point is this: constructing a rotation out of league average pitching would be enough to put the 2013 Twins from bottom of the league to contenders. A rotation consisting of:

Brandon McCarthy
Scott Diamond
John Lannan
Brett Meyers
Kyle Gibson

Could easily propel the Twins to the 80 win mark. After that, who knows what could happen, but at least there’d be a chance.

Interesting Rumor of The Week:

The Orioles are in the market for a big impact bat. Simply put, the team wants someone who can bat 4^th in their lineup, play DH most of the time and help push what was an overall poor offense into something a little more threating. The team is prepared to deal from their strength (pitching) and is willing to take on a big contract.

The supposed target of the Orioles’ trade push is none other than Justin Morneau. Reports have said that a deal is in place, but Baltimore is trying to decide on whether or not to "pull the trigger". The yet unnamed target is a "1B / DH type with a impact bat, supposedly left handed and currently on the roster of a team not thought to contend in 2013" – that sure sounds like the Twins #33…right?

Baltimore does have a nice assortment of young, cheap, talented pitching – something the Twins DESPERATELY need. It will be interesting to see what comes of this (if anything) over the next few days.

Would trading Morneau instantly make the Twins non contenders in 2013? Possibly, but there’s also a chance the team would be better with a trade.

Assuming the Twins have to eat at least half of Justin’s contract, that still clears $7 million in payroll (to be allocated towards a free agent pitcher) and it adds a major league ready starter to the rotation (any of Baltimore’s youngsters would be an instant improvement for the Twins). In addition, it would allow Chris Parmelee to shift to 1B full time and open RF for Oswaldo Arcia or Aaron Hicks (thereby improving the OF defense as well). Let’s assume Chris Tillman is the pitcher acquired in said trade:

Rotation:

Scott Diamond
Chris Tillman
Brett Meyers
John Lannan
Kyle Gibson

Lineup:

C: Mauer
1B: Parmelee
2B: Carroll
SS: Florimon
3B: Plouffe
LF: Willingham
CF: Revere
RF: Arcia / Hicks
DH: Doumit

Bench: Dozier, Mastroianni, Hermann / Butera, TBD

The middle infield would still be a big question mark, but that lineup still packs a punch. With a likely batting order of

Hicks


Revere


Mauer


Willingham


Doumit


Parmelee


Plouffe


Carroll


Florimon

That’s an offense that you would be foolish to underestimate. Combined with a rotation like the one speculated above and you suddenly have a very interesting Twins team next season.

Again, the Morneau trades are nothing more than rumors in the ether right now, but it’s something to certainly keep an eye on.