Offseason Moves, Kevin Correia and The Case To Trade Justin

"Wait for the big fish to sign, then the stove will really get cooking" That’s been the line touted by many of baseball’s best writers over the past few weeks. Monday saw the biggest chip, Zack Greinke, sign with the Dodgers followed shortly by the signings of Ryan Dempster (Red Sox), Josh Hamilton (Angels) and Anibal Sanchez (Tigers).

The Twins, as predicted, were not in on any of these players despite the fact they had the payroll to be at least involved in the discussions. Instead, the Twins signed Kevin Correia, a pitcher with a career 4.84 ERA, low strikeout rate, and struggles to keep the ball in the park. The Twins are obviously hoping to catch Correia on an upswing, in 2011, Correia made the All-Star Game with an 11-2 record (he had a much worse 2^nd half – finishing with a 12-11 record).

The Twins have made signings similar to this in the past. The 2010 offseason saw the Twins take a shot at journeyman Carl Pavano, who had posted a career 4.50+ ERA and looked to be completely out of it – only to see him lower his ERA into the low 3.00 range and become an innings eater on a playoff team.

Last season, the Twins attempted the same reclamation project on Jason Marquis. Marquis fell flat on his face, becoming no better than a batter’s tee and posting an 8.00+ ERA.

Correia is the next player in line for the great Twins gamble. Will he end up surprising fans and become a reliable innings eater? Unlikely, as his career numbers point to him simply being a 4 earned run, .500 W/L pitcher. Simply put, he’s back end of the rotation filler and not exactly the player you want to see the Twins sign given their massive rotation deficiency.

Trade Market Developments

The Twins have said that they were likely done in the trade market following the surprising trade of Ben Revere. Then again, they said they were likely done in the trade market after moving Denard Span – and we saw how that changed.

With the Rangers losing out on Mike Napoli, Zack Greinke, Anibal Sanchez and Josh Hamilton, they’re likely becoming a little bit desperate to improve their playoff caliber ball club. They have a large need in their lineup for a left handed power bat and there’s little in the way of free agent impact bats on the market.

It just so happens the Twins have a left handed power bat to fill that void. Justin Morneau, who is entering a walk year, would greatly benefit from playing 81 games in a park that gives plus numbers to lefty batters. The Rangers also have the payroll flexibility to absorb most of Morneau’s $14 million salary.

In exchange, the Rangers could deal from the surplus of middle infielders and trade away Mike Olt. With prospects like Profar ready to hit the majors and talent like Kinsler and Andrus still under team control, Olt becomes an expendable piece for the Rangers. Olt’s best position is 3B, which would likely force Trevor Plouffe into right field (now vacant because Parmelee would be playing 1B). This move would do two things for the Twins 1) continue their youth / rebuilding movement and 2) free up payroll space to sign a free agent pitcher (Edwin Jackson, Shaun Marcum) to a nice one year deal.

All Is Not Lost

Right now, it’s hard to be a Twins fan. It looks like a team that has lost 90+ games for two straight years is well on their way to losing another 90 games in 2013. They team has shipped off talent in Denard Span and Ben Revere and outside of Vance Worley, has received nothing in return that will benefit the team in 2013.

You have to be bold to trade both your starting CF and his heir apparent in today’s outfield starved league. The Twins were bold because they feel they have the next best thing ready to hit the big leagues. Aaron Hicks, by all accounts, is set to takeover as the starting CF out of spring training. This would mean he’d jump straight from AA to the big leagues, but the Twins have not been afraid to make those kind of promotions (Brian Dozier, Chris Parmelee, Joe Mauer) in the past.

Scouts say that Hicks has the plate discipline and bat of Denard Span while holding the defensive range and speed of Ben Revere. Even better, Hicks has an absolute cannon for an arm, meaning his defensive presence is that much more a threat than Revere or Span.

It’s entirely possible that Hicks takes over CF in 2013 and is just as good if not slightly better than both Span and Revere. That being said, even if Hicks posts a WAR of 6 or better the Twins are still a team with many flaws. Hicks being an instant hit means little if the pitching staff isn’t markedly better.

But, as I said, all is not lost on 2013 yet. IF the Twins still have a few moves up their sleeves, be they trades or free agent signings, this team could be a surprise dark horse. For instance, assuming the Morneau trade happens, the Twins could foreseeable field a team such as:

C: Mauer
1B: Parmelee
2B: Dozier / Carroll
SS: Florimon / Carroll
3B: Olt
LF: Willingham
CF: Hicks
RF: Plouffe
DH: Doumit

Rotation:

Scott Diamond
Vance Worley
Edwin Jackson (1 Year, $12 Mill.)
Kevin Correia
Kyle Gibson / Liam Hendriks / Cole DeVries

That’s a better team than the 2012 club. In a questionable AL Central, that’s a scrappy enough team to make things interesting. Time will tell what the Twins are doing for 2013 – but the hot stove is heating up and if the team is being honest about competing in 2013, now is the time to make moves.