Twins Trade Revere, Build Up Young Arms

You’ll have to forgive me for being a day late but I needed some time to compose myself.

Yesterday morning, the Twins dropped a bombshell on the winter meetings by trading fan favorite Ben Revere to the Phillies for left hander Vance Worley and the Phillies’ #2 prospect, Trevor May. This trade was a true stunner in that Ben Revere’s name had not been firmly connected to any trade and it was widely assumed that the Twins would stand pat with their outfielders after shipping off Denard Span to Washington one week earlier.

From a pure trade standpoint, this move was a brilliant swap for the Twins. They exchange Revere, who is a young (24), contact hitter with speed and under team control until 2017 for Worley, a young (25) left hander who exhibits solid control, keeps the ball down and generates a decent number of strikeouts (19% - good for someone on the Twins’ staff). The Twins also got Trevor May, a 6’5" hard throwing right hander who projects into another Major League starter. He’s not the future ace that Alex Meyer (acquired for Denard Span) is, but he projects to be a solid #2 starter so long as his control continues to improve.

Losing Ben Revere and his defense is going to hurt the Twins. Early reports are that the team feels confident that Aaron Hicks or Joe Benson are ready to become full time Major League players. In the event that both of them fail, the Twins still have Darin Mastroianni who will be more than a capable replacement.

The Twins exit the winter meetings with a much deeper rotation than they had 4 days ago. Scott Diamond and Vance Worley are great inning eaters who keep the ball down and keep their team in games. They also added a future ace in Alex Meyer and a top of the rotation arm in Trevor May. On Monday, the Twins prospect list included two pitchers – Kyle Gibson and JO Berrios. By Friday, that list expanded to Gibson, Meyer, May and Berrios. Doubling the amount of young arms in a system is never a bad move.

From a fan perspective, this trade is harder to swallow. Ben Revere was one of the more popular players on the team and was one of the few bright spots on an otherwise poor team the past two years.

There’s no denying now that the writing is on the wall for the 2013 Twins. This team was a few reliable arms away from possibly contending in 2013, now, without Span or Revere and a rotation still occupied with 3 empty slots, it’s clear the Twins are rebuilding. 2013 will be another losing season. 2014 and 2015 look like the promising future that fans have been holding out for – but two years is a long time to wait for your team to be competitive once again.

Surprise on the return:

Some fans, myself included, were surprised the Twins managed to get more for Revere than they did for Span. By all accounts, Denard Span is the better player, still under team control and holding a friendly contract. Yet, Span only was ‘worth’ a top pitching prospect while revere was worth a young Major League ready arm AND a top prospect. Did the Twins fleece the Phillies? Not quite – when you look at the offseason as a whole, everything makes a little more sense.

The Giants, Phillies, Braves, Nationals, Orioles and Rays entered the 2012 offseason with needs in the outfield. A plethora of big name free agents (Bourn, Pagan, Hamilton, Upton) were on the market, but their values were extremely high. The first domino to fall was BJ Upton signing with the Braves. The Nationals then pulled themselves out of the market by acquiring Span. The Giants re-upped with Pagan, reducing the market to Hamilton and Bourn, both who were commanding premium prices. With a multitude of teams still in the market for OF help, their prices weren’t likely to come down. The Phillies, faced with either paying a premium for Bourn or Hamilton or paying a little too much for another option in a trade chose the latter route. Yes, they coughed up young pitching talent, but they felt their need for a reliable CF and leadoff hitter was a bigger issue.

What’s Next?

The Revere trade puts the Twins in an interesting place, do they continue to sell pieces off who will not help them compete in 2013 and build for 2014, or do they bank on a revamped rotation in 2013 and make a run? I could see the Twins follow either path – here’s how:

Blow it up:

Josh Willingham, while a popular player and a great offseason acquisition in 2012, will be of no use to a youth infused 2014 Twins ball club. His stock has never been higher after posting career bests for home runs and RBI – the time to move him for pitching is now. As I mentioned above, the market for outfielders is thin and players that will make an impact are in high demand. The Twins should easily be able to move Willingham for another prospect or young Major League ready arm. The Orioles are still looking for a cleanup hitter to fill their DH needs and are willing to part with young Major League ready arms. A Willingham for Chris Tillman swap makes sense for both clubs.

If you move Willingham, then Justin Morneau becomes the next piece that must be moved. Morneau is entering the last year of his deal and likely won’t be brought back in 2014. He’s proven to be ‘back’ from his concussion injuries and has shown flashes of being a potent bat in the lineup. The Rangers, Orioles, Yankees, Angels and A’s are all possible destinations.

Finally, without Willingham or Morneau, the other 2011 offseason acquisition, Ryan Doumit, becomes expendable as well. Solid hitter, defensively flexible and decently paid – Doumit has value.

By flipping Morneau, Doumit and Willingham, the Twins would be instantly throwing in the towel on 2013 (which is why I don’t think all of them will be moved until the trade deadline in July) but it would likely give the Twins a plethora of young arms in the system.

Build It Up:

Just because Span and Revere are gone doesn’t necessarily indicate the folding of the 2013 Twins. As I mentioned earlier, both Aaron Hicks and Joe Benson are believed to be Major League ready. That means the Twins could move yet another bat and still contend in 2013.

For example, the Twins could flip Morneau to the Orioles for Chris Tillman. Then, they would shift Chris Parmelee to 1B, start Hicks in CF and Benson in RF. By signing one more free agent pitcher (Shaun Marcum for example) the Twins would now have the following roster:

C: Joe Mauer
1B: Chris Parmelee
2B: Brian Dozier
SS: Jamey Carroll
3B: Trevor Plouffe
LF: Josh Willingham
CF: Aaron Hicks
RF: Joe Benson
DH: Ryan Doumit

Bench: Pedro Florimon, Darin Mastroianni, FA 3B, Eduardo Escobar

Rotation:

Scott Diamond
Vance Worley
Chris Tillman
Shaun Marcum
Kyle Gibson

That’s not a bad team. Does it have question marks? You bet – young, unproven arms and a middle infield of inexperience – but the offense has pop, and the rotation has depth. Let’s not forget that Liam Hendriks and Cole DeVries are still available as well. Hendriks had a bad 2012 to be sure, but he has raw potential and could realistically bounce back in 2013 like Scott Diamond did in 2012.