The Minnesota Twins front office was scornfully discussed following the conclusion of the 2012 offseason as many saw the team simply standing pat and failing to address the biggest needs of the club – starting pitching.
The Twins opted to trade Denard Span and fan favorite Ben Revere to the Nationals and Phillies respectively, returning two promising future prospects and Vance Worley. They also signed a pitcher fresh off of Tommy John surgery (Mike Pelfrey) and overpaid for middle of the road starter in Kevin Correia. Then, they did the thing that infuriated fans the most. They stood pat. Despite what many thought to be a decently deep market, the Twins didn’t add any more arms to their rotation; stating instead that they liked what they had lined up.
Fans were understandably furious and frustrated and so far this reaction has proven to be justified. Through 12 games of the 2013 season, the Twins’ starting pitchers have been just has inconsistent and hittable as the 2012 rotation. Fans are left grumbling about what “could have been” if the team had only signed player X instead.
So, I thought we’d take a look at the list of guys that fans and media pundits thought the Twins should have signed and see if they are fairing any better. This concept popped into my head last night after watching Joe Blanton, a one time favorite of many Twins bloggers, get shelled by the Twins at Target Field. Just how much better would the staff have been had the Twins chased Edwin Jackson, Ryan Dempster or Shaun Marcum? Let’s see:
The Candidates:
Prior to the free agency period of 2012, these were the players that were attached to the Twins as possible targets.
1. Edwin Jackson – (Signed 4 year $52 Million with Chi. Cubs) Jackson was probably the longest shot on the Twins’ target list as he was expected to command a high price tag. Those estimates were correct and Jackson’s $13 MM / year deal likely priced him out of the Twins range before any serious talks began. So far this season, Jackson is 0-2 with a 6.06 ERA and a 1.592 WHIP. He’s pitched slightly ‘better’ than Vance Worley, but at that price, the Twins benefited from missing out on Jackson.
2. Scott Baker – (Signed 1 year $5.5 Million with Chi. Cubs) Baker, the long time Twins workhorse, was expected to return to the team one year after Tommy John surgery caused him to miss all of 2012. Reports were the Twins wanted Baker on a 2 year, $5 MM deal with a potential team option. Baker wanted a 1 year deal. The Cubs offered it and Baker left Minnesota behind. Baker’s elbow began giving him issues in spring training, however, and he hasn’t pitched this season due to re-injury. He’s unlikely to begin pitching until around July. The Twins lucked out by not signing Baker fresh off his injury year.
3. Brett Myers – (Signed 1 year $7 Million with Cleveland) Almost immediately into the free agency period of 2012 / 2013 Brett Myers name kept popping up alongside the Twins. Reports had both sides very interested, and some stories even made it sound like Myers to the Twins was but a mere formality at one point. Instead, Myers went to Cleveland and the Twins front office said they never really had any serious talks with Myers. So far, Myers has posted an 0-2 record with an ERA of 8.82 and a WHIP of 1.653. Once again, the Twins aren’t missing much by not having Myers in their rotation.
4. Shaun Marcum – (Signed 1 year, $4 Million with NY Mets) Marcum could arguably top this list as many, myself included, thought he fit the Twins’ needs the most. He was the very ‘buy low, potential high ceiling’ pitcher the Twins needed to be looking at if they wanted to build their rotation without dealing out Edwin Jackson or Anibal Sanchez money. Instead the Twins reportedly never even spoke to Marcum’s camp and the righty signed a cheap deal with the Mets. A spring training set back has kept Marcum from pitching so far this season, but he’s set to debut later this week or early next week. We’ll have to see how he pitches, but Marcum could be a player the Twins will be kicking themselves over come June or July.
5. Joe Saunders – (Signed 1 year, $6.5 Million with Seattle) Saunders was less a case of the Twins not pushing hard enough and more of a case where the player really didn’t want to play for them. Saunders holds a 1-1 record with a 2.08 ERA, so he’d be a great addition to the rotation this season, but as was mentioned, he didn’t want to come to Minnesota, so little blame falls on the Twins here.
6. Joe Blanton – (Signed 2 years $15 Million with Anaheim) Blanton was the favorite dark horse for many beat writers and fans alike. He fit the innings eater, work horse type pitcher that the team so desperately needed, and to many, he had better stuff than Kevin Correia. The Twins reportedly never really pushed to acquire Blanton, a move that is proving wise so far into the young season. Blanton is 0-3 with an 8.59 ERA and has looked absolutely terrible on the mound this year.
7. Carlos Villanueva – (Signed 2 years $10 Million with Chi. Cubs) Villanueva was my favorite potential target for the Twins entering the offseason. He was an under the radar talent for the Blue Jays who had posted some average numbers over the past few years, but looked to be trending in the right direction. It’s not known if the Twins even pursued Villanueva, but they probably should have. He’s currently winless, but his .64 ERA and .852 WHIP tell you the quality of starts he’s been giving the Cubs. At the same price as Kevin Correia, the Twins could have had a very solid mid rotation starter.
8. Brandon McCarthy – (Signed 2 years $18 Million with Arizona) McCarthy was a popular pick for the Twins to throw decent money at coming into the signing period. He would assume the role of staff ace and anchor the rotation for years to come – so we thought. Instead, McCarthy took a nice deal from the Diamondbacks to act as their #2 or #3 starter. So far, McCarthy is 0-1 with a 7.71 ERA and a 1.800 WHIP, so maybe the Twins lucked out by not offering him $10-$12 MM per year.
When you list out all of the candidates the Twins COULD have signed, you start to see a trend – outside of Carlos Villanueva and possibly Shaun Marcum – they really aren’t missing much. Jackson signed for too much money and has under performed. Baker is injured for at least half of the year. Brett Myers has struggled in his starting role. Marcum has been injured. Saunders wasn’t coming to Minnesota regardless of the Twins’ offers. Blanton has been consistently bad and McCarthy hasn’t been that impressive this year either. The only player the Twins seem to have missed out on was Villanueva. Otherwise, Pelfrey and Correia have given the Twins exactly the same level of pitching that their “other” targets have done.
It’s easy to bemoan Mike Pelfrey or Vance Worley as they get blown up and it’s easy to cringe while Kevin Correia is pitching, just waiting for the game to fall apart – but don’t sit there and call out “If only they’d signed Edwin Jackson!” because the rest of the market hasn’t faired much better this year.
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