Clutch Hitting & The Twins: Part II

Continuing from my Doumit post last week: 

So, this leads us to the next question; who DO we want (as Twins fans) at bat in a late & close or 2 out, RISP situation? Using 2012’s numbers, I broke down our current lineup:

Brain Dozier:

2 Out, RISP (2012): .238/.333/.357 14 RBI, 6 BB and 6 SO (48 PA)
Late & Close (2012): .111/.149/.111 1 RBI, 2 BB and 9 SO (51 PA)
2 Out, RISP (2013): .500/.667/1.000 4 RBI, 2 BB and 1 SO (6 PA)
L&C (2013): .083/.083/.083 0 RBI, 0 BB and 6 SO (13 PA)

Joe Mauer:

2 Out, RISP (2012): .327/.521/.569 26 RBI, 15 BB and 7 SO (73 PA)
L&C (2012): .279/.374/.465 14 RBI, 12 BB and 12 SO (99 PA)
2 Out, RISP (2013): .375/.444/.374 4 RBI, 1 BB and 2 SO (9 PA)
L&C (2013): .231/.333/.231 0 RBI, 2 BB and 4 SO (15 PA)

Justin Morneau:

2 Out, RISP (2012): .211/.325/.296 18 RBI, 11 BB and 16 SO (83 PA)
L&C (2012): .205/.298/.411 9 RBI, 8 BB and 9 SO (84 PA)
2 Out, RISP (2013): .182/.308/.273 4 RBI, 2 BB and 0 SO (13 PA)
L&C (2013): .077/.200/.077 1 RBI, 2 BB and 3 SO (15 PA)

Josh Willingham:

2 Out, RISP (2012): .241/.412/.494 30 RBI, 17 BB and 23 SO (102 PA)
L&C (2012): .308/.419/.564 20 RBI, 13 BB and 18 SO (93 PA)
2 Out, RISP (2013): .200/.429/.400 3 RBI, 1 BB and 3 SO (7 PA)
L&C (2013): .333/.467/.583 4 RBI, 4 BB and 4 SO (15 PA)

Ryan Doumit:

See aboce

Trevor Plouffe:

2 Out, RISP (2012): .152/.278/.217 12 RBI, 7 BB and 12 SO (54 PA)
L&C (2012): .227/.311/.348 2 RBI, 7 BB and 13 SO (74 PA)
2 Out, RISP (2013): .500/.500/.500 1 RBI, 0 BB and 0 SO (4 PA)
L&C (2013): .143/.500/.143 0 RBI, 3 BB and 2 SO (13 PA)

Chris Parmelee:

2 Out, RISP (2012): .238/.360/.619 11 RBI, 3 BB and 3 SO (25 PA)
L&C (2012): .300/.378/.450 4 RBI, 4 BB and 12 SO (45 PA)
2 Out, RISP (2013): .222/.300/.222 2 RBI, 1 BB and 6 SO (10 PA)
L&C (2013): .222/.385/.222 2 RBI, 2 BB and 3 SO (13 PA)

Aaron Hicks:

2 Out, RISP (2013): .333/.429/.333 3 RBI, 1 BB and 2 SO (7 PA)
L&C (2013): .222/.333/.222 3 RBI, 2 BB and 3 SO (12 PA)

Pedro Florimon:

2 Out, RISP (2012): .095/.208/.095 2 RBI, 3 BB and 6 SO (24 PA)
L&C (2012): .240/.240/.280 3 RBI, 0 BB and 11 SO (26 PA)
2 Out, RISP (2013): .250/.500/.500 2 RBI, 2 BB and 0 SO (6 PA)
L&C (2013): .000/.500/.000 0 RBI, 1 BB and 1 SO (2 PA)

Eduardo Escobar:

2 Out, RISP (2013): .667/.667/.667 2 RBI, 0 BB and 1 SO (3 PA)
L&C (2013): .375/.375/.500 2 RBI, 0 BB and 1 SO (8 PA)

Jamey Carroll:

2 Out, RISP (2012): .222/.310/.254 13 RBI, 7 BB and 10 SO (71 PA)
L&C (2012): .324/.360/.361 13 RBI, 5 BB and 21 SO (83 PA)
2 Out, RISP (2013): .333/.500/.333 0 RBI, 1 BB and 0 SO (4 PA)
L&C (2013): .333/.333/.333 0 RBI, 0 BB and 1 SO (3 PA)

I’m omitting Darin Mastroianni and Wilkin Ramirez as they’re essentially bench or platoon players and Oswaldo Arcia doesn’t have enough at bats for any statistical relevance at this point.

Judging by the data above (using mainly 2012’s numbers due to the small sample of 2013 data so far) the players the Twins want at bat in 2 out, RISP situations are:

1. Joe Mauer
2. Eduardo Escobar
3. Aaron Hicks
4. Josh Willingham
5. Chris Parmelee

Hicks, oddly enough, seems to ONLY hit when there are 2 out and RISP. Escobar’s sample size is small, but his numbers are so strong, he’s hard to leave off this list. Willingham’s average is lower than Doumit’s in the same situation, but Willingham has struck out less and walked more, meaning his at bats have had better results. Parmelee has shown to be well rounded – you’re getting his same average numbers in 2 out situations as 0 & 1 out situations.

Interestingly enough, this little research showed something interesting – the guys who hit well with 2 outs and RISP aren’t necessarily the guys you want up to bat in a late and close game. The top 5 for that scenario are:

1. Chris Parmelee
2. Josh Willingham
3. Joe Mauer
4. Eduardo Escobar
5. Jamey Carroll

Carroll falls to 5^th, despite having the highest BA, due to his 25% strike out rate. Parmelee is well rounded, and has a solid OBP with low strike out numbers. Willingham is better at getting on base than you might think, Mauer is Mauer and Escobar’s small sample but high numbers warrant him a spot on the list as well.

You can also see that certain players fall off late in games: Pedro Florimon and Brian Dozier see their slashes fall significantly late in games. Players like Morneau, Plouffe and Willingham seemingly put up the same numbers across the board, regardless of inning.