MLB Progress Report

We’re nearly one month into the new season, most teams have tallied close to 20 games and both leagues and every division are still tumultuous enough to say that nearly every team has a shot at contending. That being said, we finally are getting enough results to start seeing trends develop across Major League Baseball.

I plan on writing a ‘MLB Progress Report’ sporadically throughout the 2013 season in which I look at each division, team by team and give a general breakdown on how their season has gone so far. Now, on April 22^nd, it’s very easy to decry “Small sample size!” and simply write off many oddities as statistical noise, so take the early season standings with a grain of salt. However, I believe that with almost every team tallying 15 to 19 games, we have enough of a start to analyze some of the early season trends.

Let’s get started with the one team that really matters – the Minnesota Twins.

Minnesota Twins 8-7 2^nd Place – AL Central

It’s been a tale of two teams for the Twins in 2013. They started the year hot, winning 4 of their first 6 games on the strength of solid starting pitching, a shutdown bullpen and just enough offense to win close games.

The offense went cold in Kansas City, as the Twins were swept by the Royals. Against the Mets, it was the starting pitching that fell apart as Vance Worley and Scott Diamond struggled to keep their games close. A 5 game losing streak put the Twins at the back of the Central and brought back bitter memories of 2012 & 2011.

The Twins followed this 5 game losing streak with a 4 game win streak in which the offense came alive against the Angels (16 runs in 2 games) and then the starting pitching stepped up against the White Sox (4 runs allowed over 2 games – one of which was yielded by the bullpen).

At 8-7, the Twins are playing out their ‘best case scenario’ (the best timeline theory for those who watch NBC’s Community) by hanging around .500 and keeping things interesting in the Central. Without a truly standout team (more on them in a minute) in the division, simply hanging around .500 for most of the year will be enough to keep the Twins in the race for the season.

The Rest of the AL Central:

Kansas City 10-7 1^st Place

• The Royals have quietly overachieved this season, finally living up to the ‘sleeper’ expectations that had been cast towards them each of the past three years. James Shields has proven to be exactly the ace the Royals where looking for while Ervin Santana and Wade Davis has been surprisingly reliable. Armed with one of the best bullpens in baseball and a young, dangerous offense, the Royals are poised to make things interesting for the favorite Tigers in the central.

Minnesota 8-7 2^nd Place

Detroit 9-9 3^rd Place

• The Tigers are repeating 2012 – which can be viewed as both a good and bad thing. After all, that team did go on to win the Central division and the AL pennant, but that team also struggled to beat their rivals and didn’t take the division lead until the end of the season. The Tigers can go from unbelievably hot to ice cold in no time, as evidenced by their streaky play over the last 10 games (5-5, currently on a 4 game losing streak). This team is built to run away with the division, but unless they can put together a more consistent and cohesive style of play, they’re doomed to repeat the tight race of 2012.

Cleveland Indians 7-10 4^th Place

• Cleveland spent big in the 2012/2013 offseason, acquiring Michael Bourne, Nick Swisher and trading for potential ace Trevor Bauer. This big push for talent acquisition caused many to label the Indians as sleeper picks to win the Central. While there is still ample time for that prediction to come to fruition, it will only happen if the Indians can come across some consistent starting pitching. Cleveland’s pitchers currently allow the third most runs per game in the AL (ahead of only the Astros and Blue Jays) at 5.12. The offense has been solid, scoring 4.70 runs per game, but it hasn’t been consistent enough. They’ve scored 3 or fewer runs 10 times this season, and are 2-8 in games in which they’ve done so.

Chicago White Sox 7-11 5^th Place

• Many fans and experts alike found it odd when the White Sox, who very nearly stole the AL Central from the heavyweight Tigers in 2012, largely stood pat in the offseason. They allowed key offensive contributors like AJ Pierzynski and Kevin Youkillis to walk away and free agency and chose to fill their spots with internal candidates and Jeff Keppinger. The starting pitching for Chicago has been dominate this season, and they sit in the top 4 for runs allowed per game at 3.72. The offense, however, is missing the big bats as Keppinger, Tyler Flowers and others have not stepped up to fill in for lost production. The Sox are 3-7 in their last 10, and outside of an 7-0 win on April 17^th against the Blue Jays, have not looked that impressive in any of their games this season.

AL East

Boston Red Sox 12-6 1^st Place

• Boston has the top 4 offense and top 3 pitching staffs of the AL. They’ve put together timely hitting with a solid defense (the fewest errors in the AL) to ride to a strong 12-6 start. With their pitching staff, it’s hard to see the Red Sox sliding back too far this year. Look for them to hang around at or near the top of the East all season long.

New York Yankees 10-7 2^nd Place

• The Yankees were largely written off before the season began due to the plethora of injuries plaguing the team. Yet, without a large portion of their starters, the Yankees have the second highest scoring offense in the AL. I would caution to look at sample size here as the odds of Vernon Wells, Lyle Overbay and Travis Hafner carrying an offense for half of a season are slim. That being said, with much of their core set to return before or around the All-Star break, the Yankees may just be good enough to hang around the East.

Baltimore 10-8 3^rd Place

• Baltimore was the surprise team of 2012, rising from the ashes of many failed seasons to steal a wild card spot and make a run into the second round of the AL playoffs. Many thought last season was an aberration that couldn’t be repeated due to the number of one run and extra innings games the O’s won (19). With their run differential, the O’s should have been about a .500 team in 2012. So far, 2013 is showing the O’s to be exactly that. They have a solid offense (top 3 in the AL at 5 runs per game) but their pitching is simply average (4.44 runs per game, middle of the pack in the AL) and they play in a very tough division. Baltimore is good, but I think this is the team we’re going to see – at or around .500 all year long.

Tampa Bay 8-10 4^th Place

• If you subscribe to the ‘luck’ theory (I.E. luck plays a large part of a team’s season) you may want to write off the Rays right now. At 8-10, the Rays have already lost some games in amazing fashion. Each week, it seems like they’re on the wrong end of a bad call, one that typically costs them one run in a tight game. Luck or no luck, you can’t argue with the horrible numbers the Rays offense is putting up, they’re 3^rd worst in the AL at 3.73 runs per game. If their offense comes alive, the Rays will be a tough team to contend with. If it stays in stasis, look for the Rays to be bottom dwellers of the East.

Toronto Blue Jays 8-11 5^th Place

• Much to the shock of many experts and fans, the Blue Jays are currently sitting at the bottom of the AL East and looking every bit like the worst team in a loaded division. If you step back and look at things objectively, it’s not that big of a surprise. The Blue Jays are built largely from the framework of the 2012 Marlins team, which was built with great talent but failed to win due to below average pitching and an offense that simply could not score. So far in 2013 the Blue Jays are the second worst pitching staff in the AL (5.76 runs per game) and the 4th worst offense in the AL at 3.79 runs per game. Call it a surprise if you want, but I don’t see it that way. The 2013 Blue Jays, which are essentially the 2012 Marlins, are playing EXACTLY like the 2012 Marlins.

Al West

Texas Rangers 12-6 1^st Place

• The Rangers lost Josh Hamilton, Ryan Dempster and Mike Napoli. They failed to sign any of the impact free agents during the offseason and are sending out a largely unproven outfield each night. None of it matters. The Rangers pitching has been the best in the AL while their offense, built around aging stars in AJ Pierzynski and Lance Berkman is just above league average. With Yu Darvish, Derek Holland, Alexi Ogando and Nick Tepesch all posting sub 3.20 ERA the offense only has to be average for the Rangers to be a threat to win. If the pitching falters, the Rangers are a .500 team, but with the staff playing at the level they are currently, they’re going to be a tough team to beat.

Oakland Athletics 12-7 2^nd Place

• The 2013 A’s are the antithesis of many of the A’s teams of the past. They’re winning largely on offense, instead of defense and pitching. In fact, through 19 games, the A’s are the best offense in the AL, scoring 5.26 runs per game. HOWEVER, there is one large caveat to this hot start. 6 of these 17 games have come against the Astros, who possess the worst pitching staff in the AL. Their last 3 games against the Tampa Bay Rays elite pitching staff saw their red hot bats go cool, as the A’s scored 4 runs total. With a slightly above average pitching staff and a league average defense, look for the A’s to slide back to the pack in the talented AL West.

Los Angeles Angels 7-10 3^rd Place

• For the second straight offseason, the Angels made the biggest splashes in free agency, signing Josh Hamilton to hit alongside Albert Pujols, Mike Trout and Mike Trumbo. For the second straight season, these big signings have not led to big wins. No one on the Angels’ starting staff has an ERA below 4.00 and their defense has currently committed 12 errors, tied for second most in the AL. Poor pitching and a porous defense can only be bailed out by a strong offense, which the Angels should have – but save for their most recent 3 game sweep against Detroit – they have not displayed. At 4.35 runs per game, the Angels are slightly above league average on offense, but given their talent level, we can expect that ranking to rise as their bats heat up. If their pitching ever puts things together, the Angels will jump into contention in West.

Seattle Mariners 7-13 4^th Place

• The Mariners desperately tried to improve offensively this offseason. They were attached to Michael Bourne, Josh Hamilton, BJ Upton and even had a trade in place to acquire Justin Upton, before the slugger rejected the deal. That left the Mariners with little more than Jason Bay and a few other minor signings to build their team around. Predictably, it’s Seattle woeful offense that is weighing them down in 2012. At 3.05 runs per game, the Mariners have the worst offense in the AL. They’re starting pitching currently sits in the bottom five of the AL, despite having Felix Hernandez and Hisashi Iwakuma anchoring their staff. It has to be tough for Mariners fans, because their team did honestly try to fix their largest areas of concern – only to be rejected. As a result, the offense is woeful and doesn’t show any true promise of improving this season. Thankfully for the Mariners, the Astros now reside in the AL West – meaning they won’t have to worry too much about finishing last in the division.

Houston Astros 5-13 5^th Place

• Despite their opening night win, the Astros have been exactly the team we expected them to be. Their young offense is overly aggressive and underperforming (they lead the AL in strikeouts – 173 and are below average in OBP). Their pitching staff is the worst in the AL (6 runs per game) and has given up the 2^nd most hits, 2^nd most home runs and most walks. They’re a team that is simply overmatched in every facet of the game.

NL East

Atlanta Braves 13-5 1^st Place

• Despite getting swept by the Pirates in their last 3 games, the Braves have been the best team in baseball for much of 2013. They lead the NL in home runs scored while their pitching boast the fewest runs allowed per game (2.44) with the third fewest hits allowed. Their speedy outfield of the Upton brothers and Jason Heyward has contributed to their ranking as the second most efficient team on defense so far this season as well. With their pitching staff and defense, the Braves are going to be a very tough team to beat in 2013.

Washington Nationals 10-8 2^nd Place

• The Nationals are exhibit A of why World Series trophies are not handed out on paper. Despite being the best, most balanced team in 2012 and only getting better (according to writers and experts) this offseason, the Nationals are floating around .500 in 2013. This is largely due to their starting pitching, long considered the strength of the team, underperforming in 2013. At 4.78 runs per game, their staff yields the second highest run total in the NL. They’ve yielded the third most hits in the NL and have committed the most errors of any NL team. Even the offense has been underachieving. Their 4 runs per game is slightly below average in the NL and ranks them at the middle of the pack. They’ve managed to hang around the East due to playing the Marlins 6 times in 18 games (they’re 5-1 in those games). They’ve also beat up on the offensively inept White Sox (3-0) but have struggled against the Braves (0-3), Reds (1-2) and Mets (1-2). There still is a lot of season left and the Nationals can certainly get their offense rolling in time to contend, but the early season numbers point to the Nationals not being the team many thought they would be.

New York Mets 9-8 3^rd Place

• The Mets have been a pleasant surprise at 9-8 this season, hanging around the NL East despite losing ace RA Dickey in a trade last season and Johan Santana to injury before the season began. Their staff has been bolstered by Matt Harvey, who has been near unhittable this year but the rest of the staff hasn’t reached the same level of success – ranking the Mets in the bottom third of the NL in runs per game. Their offense currently leads the NL in runs scored per game (5.82) and their defense has largely been league average, meaning the Mets will likely hang around the .500 mark all season if these trends continue.

Philadelphia Phillies 8-11 4^th Place

• The Phillies have a below average pitching staff (4.63 runs per game) and a bottom five offense (3.68 runs per game). They have one of the more efficient defenses in the NL (.701 efficiency) that has committed the second fewest errors. That pretty much sums up the Phililes so far in 2012 – below average pitching, lackluster offense and fundamentally sound defense. In a division with an elite team (Atlanta) a complete team (Washington) and a offensive team (New York) that will be good enough to finish 3^rd to 4^th. They’re not bad, they’re not great – you’re 2013 Phillies.

Miami Marlins 4-14 5^th Place

• The Marlins were scorned, rightfully so, after their massive fire sale this offseason. They were accused of rolling out an AAA team to take the field (and their fans’ money) at the beginning of the year and were routinely picked to be the worst team in baseball by the end of 2013. The Marlins countered that they’d be better than anticipated. So far, Marlins 0 – everyone else 1. The Marlins are easily the worst team in baseball, and it’s actually not that close. They’re bottom 5 in pitching, absolute worst in batting, worst in defensive efficiency and 3^rd in errors committed. They’re bad – REALLY bad – and don’t expect them to magically improve this season to rise out of the cellar of the NL East.

NL Central

Cincinnati Reds 11-8 1^st Place

• The Reds have a top 3 offense, top 5 pitching staff and top 3 defense; yet they’re only 11-8, why are they struggling despite their statistical success? They’re 5-4 in 2 run games or less so far this season, a trend that is unlikely to continue for the entire season. Their expected win loss total for the year so far is 13-6 based on the above factors, so it’s simply a matter of a few bad breaks and underperforming in key situations. That being said, numbers like the Reds are putting up tend to average out over the length of a season, which means the Reds are likely to take a firm grasp of the NL Central by the All Star break, a lead that, if these numbers continue, will be hard to get back.

St. Louis Cardinals 10-8 2^nd Place

• It never seems to fail, no matter who the Cardinals lose or how little buzz they have before going into a season, they’re always hanging around the division and contending for a playoff spot. A slightly above pitching staff and a top five offense mean the Cardinals will likely hang around a relatively weak NL Central all season, although I don’t know if they have the roster to keep up with the Reds or hold off the Pirates. That being said, it’s foolish to doubt the Cardinals, they’re always contenders.

Pittsburgh Pirates 10-8 2^nd Place

• Is this the year the Pirates FINALLY finish above .500? Maybe. I know that’s not the emphatic answer you were probably looking for, but the signs point to the Pirates being contenders at least for the NL wild card this year. Their offense has been slightly below average and is the largest concern for this team going forward, but the pitching staff currently ranks 2^nd in the NL in runs allowed per game and will likely be getting better by midseason with Gerrit Cole set to join the club. It’s a tough division, but the Pirates are good enough to hang around all year.

Milwaukee Breweres 9-8 4^th Place

• The Brewers surprised many by going after Kyle Loshe right before the regular season. The Brew Crew’s offense had always been solid, but their pitching staff had been the bane of the team for the past few seasons. Loshe has added great value to the team, posting a 2.70 ERA over 3 games so far this year, but the rest of the staff hasn’t achieved nearly as well. The other starters all hold ERAs above 4.50 and the bullpen has been anything but reliable so far this year. This lackluster group has put the Brewers at the bottom of the NL in runs allowed per game. Their offense, always a strong point, continues to be solid, currently sitting at league average in runs scored. With no real pitching staff to speak of, it’s hard to see the Brewers contending for a wild card, let alone the division this season.

Chicago Cubs 5-12 5^th Place

• The Cubs looked like they were kicking their “rebuilding” phase into high gear this offseason, going after a plethora of starters in Edwin Jackson, Scott Baker and Carlos Villanueva. Surrounding this pitching with a young offense with Anthony Rizzo, Starlin Castro and veterans like Alfonso Soriano, many felt the Cubs had the potential to be a vastly improved club in 2013.  Instead, it’s been more of the same for the Cubbies. Their 3^rd worst in runs scored per game, slightly below average in runs allowed and have committed the second most errors in the NL.  Pending a sudden offensive resurgence, the Cubs look to finish at the bottom of the Central yet again this season.

NL West

Colorado Rockies 13-5 1^st Place

• Raise your hand if you saw this coming. Put your hand down, you did not. NO ONE saw the Rockies, one of the worst teams in baseball last season, putting together such a hot start in 2013. Their Rockies have been winning thanks to a very hot offense, scoring the second highest runs and runs per game in the NL. The offense can get hot in Colorado, especially playing in Coors field, so that’s not terribly surprising, but don’t overlook the pitching, which is the real surprise of the Rockies so far. At 4.22 runs allowed per game, the Rockies have just an average pitching staff by NL standards, but this is largely the same staff that finished with a league worst 5.49 runs per game in 2012. The staff is overachieving and this output is likely unsustainable, but it has made the Rockies fun to watch so far.

San Francisco Giants 12-7 2^nd Place

• The Giants have an average offense, average starting pitching and a slightly above average defense. This is exactly the same consistent style of play that the Giants used to reach (and win) the World Series in two of the past three seasons. It’s not exciting, but it seems to work. Their stats say they shouldn’t be as good as they are, in fact their projected W/L is set at 10-9 currently, reflecting what the numbers say – they’re a .500 team. Yet…

Arizona Diamondbacks 10-8 3^rd Place

• The D-Backs traded away Justin Upton and Trevor Bauer while signing a plethora of ‘gritty’ (scrappy, insert nice adjectives for “good but not great” player here) outfielders and Brandon McCarthy in the offseason. Many experts questioned their plan, but it’s clear GM Kevin Towers had one – and as far as we know its working. The D-Backs are one of the higher scoring teams in the NL and their staff is in the top 3 of the NL in runs allowed. Their offense is slightly more potent than San Francisco’s and their starting pitching has been more reliable so far this season. With the Rockies likely outplaying their actual level of talent and the Giants seemingly overplaying their talent level, the West is still up for grabs. The D-Backs are built to win the division, and if their early season play continues, they might just do that.

Los Angeles Dodgers 8-10 4^th Place

• The Dodgers are the new big spenders of the MLB, seemingly constantly attached to or signing the biggest name free agents each offseason. So far, this spending has not translated to wins. Despite having an average starting staff, the Dodgers have been slowed by a very poor offensive start to the season. Their 3 runs per game are better than only the lowly Marlins in the NL. Without an improvement from their bats, it’s hard to see the Dodgers contending.

San Diego Padres 5-13

• The Padres are bottom 4 in runs scored, bottom 4 in runs allowed and below average in defensive efficiency. Thank heavens for the Marlins and Astros, who have been so spectacularly terrible that few are noticing just how bad the Padres are this season. With no pitching staff and no offense to speak of, the Padres don’t look to rise above the rest of a talented NL West anytime soon.

As I mentioned in the open, we’re barely 20 game into the season and much of the early season output should be taken with a grain of salt. That being said, we can pick up some interesting trends from this early season data. Are the Rockies going to keep this up? Odds are against them. The Reds are better than the record says, the A’s probably aren’t the best offense in baseball and the Astros are just as bad as everyone believes. The D-Backs and Pirates shouldn’t be overlooked despite their .500 starts, while the Twins and Mets are probably exactly what they appear to be in their .500 starts to the young season.

I’ll come back to this feature periodically throughout the season (I plan on breaking the season into 20 game “pieces”) so we can track who has been rising, falling and what the numbers really say about a team each step of the way.