Arguing AGAINST Some Trade Ideas

The trade deadline is approaching and the Twins are projected to be sellers. We’ve already beaten the trade chips and rumors surrounding the team into the ground, so I don’t feel the need to delve any further into the trade deadline today…

Okay, that’s not true. There are two things worth mentioning concerning the Twins and the Trade deadline. The Braves are reportedly very interested in the Twins’ left handed veteran relievers. Glen Perkins is obviously the most popular target, but the rumors of the Twins effectively saying “not for sale” on Perkins are still out there, meaning the Braves have turned their attention to the other veteran lefty in the Twins ‘pen; Brian Duensing.

Duensing has settled into his lefty specialist role nicely with the Twins this season, and has posted respectable numbers (4.58 ERA, 1.670 WHIP, 90 ERA +) he’s not been lights out by any stretch, but he’s been solid and he’s a lefty – and in baseball, that gives him value.

The return for Duensing wouldn’t be overwhelming, the Twins would likely be looking at a ‘C’ caliber prospect (someone in the 200-300 range on most prospect lists) and the player could effectively be considered organizational depth.

The Twins would have to evaluate if this prospect would add more value to the 2014, 2015, 2016 Twins than Duensing (who is under contract during that span) would. Odds are, the answer to that question is no, unless the Twins are able to drive up the market price for Duensing and pick up a AAAA caliber player (not necessarily a prospect) I would prefer the Twins hold Duensing and either use him for the next 3 years or package him with another (future) trade to achieve a greater return. Packaging Duensing and Jared Burton would be an interesting concept, as both guys are projected to get a prospect in the 200-300 range, and combined the Twins could arguably bump that prospect up to a 100-150 range.

Another quick note, the Twins have reportedly been connected to Astros starter Bud Norris. To which I say “Don’t do it!” Norris would be an improvement over what the team is throwing out there right now, that much is certain, but Norris isn’t exactly the pitcher you want to part with upper tier prospects to acquire (the Astros are looking for a top 100 prospect in addition to a 200-250 range prospect). Norris’ K/9 has been falling, his BABIP is a little lower than it has been and his WHIP and ERA + aren’t exactly anything to write home about. If it’s a matter of trading someone like Chris Parmelee (young, but effectively a bench bat) I’d say go for it, but if the price is DJ Hicks, JO Berrios, Adam Brett Walker, Max Kepler or the like, I’d hope the Twins will take a pass.

Trade Deadline Rumor Mill

The next few weeks figure to be active ones for all of the Major League teams. Contenders will ship off prospects to last place squads in exchange for key pieces for a run at the title. Fringe teams will decide between pushing their chips all in or hedging their bets for the future. The Minnesota Twins will obviously be on the selling side of this equation (yet again) but the degree as to which they’re sellers has yet to be determined.

Recent reports make it sound like the team is willing to move at least one key piece, first baseman Justin Morneau. Morneau’s had a bit of comeback season, batting .273/.331/.406 but his power numbers have been a shell of what they once were as Morneau has only clubbed 7 long balls this season.

Ever since Morneau’s 2010 concussion shortened season, the Twins’ slugger hasn’t quite been the ‘real’ Justin Morneau. As he battled through concussion symptoms, wrist and neck injuries he looked lost at the plate, with his power numbers nearly non-existent and his approach at the plate more ‘swing and pray’ less ‘plan of attack’. As he enters the final year of his contract with the Twins, Morneau’s done enough to put his name on the short list of available impact bats as the deadline approaches.

The Twins were reportedly approached by Morneau’s agents within the past month and simply declined to negotiate an extension for the coming seasons. From the Twins’ point of view that makes perfect sense, there’s no rush to extend Morneau, especially if a team comes along and makes you a solid offer. If the deadline comes and goes and the team doesn’t find a taker for Morneau, you can then return to the negotiating table and try to get a deal done.

This decision is also very telling. The Twins’ first priority seems to be trading Morneau, if they really didn’t want to move him, they’d be working on extension and simply making sure they had their own ducks in a row for the coming seasons. By holding off until they don’t have any other options, the Twins have effectively tipped their hand – they’re selling #33.

As has been speculated all season, the Rays, Yankees and Red Sox are interested in the power hitting lefty. Each team is in the midst of a playoff push and each team could really use an impact bat to boost their offense. I mentioned in a post last week that I felt the best fit for Morneau (and the Twins) would be a trade to Tampa Bay. The Rays have the pieces the Twins would want for Justin and he provides the very thing the Rays offense needs – power.

However, it’s recently been revealed that there’s at least one more player in the market for a slugger that we hadn’t discussed; the Pittsburgh Pirates.

The move makes perfect sense for the Pirates, who are in the midst of their best season in over 20 years. They’re one of the best teams in the National League, but are likely to find themselves in a very tight race with the Reds and Cardinals all season. They have great pitching depth, but could really use a big bat to boost their offense. Trading for Morneau makes perfect sense.

The Pirates also have the pieces that the Twins would be looking for in a trade, mainly young pitching prospects. Recent reports have the Pirates offering 19 year old righty Tyler Glasnow as the return for Justin, which, if true, would be a great get for the Twins. Glasnow currently pitches for the Pirates high A affiliate in West Virginia. He’s a power pitcher with a good strikeout to walk ratio and is projectable into a top of the rotation starter. He’d likely begin 2014 in AA, but could be big league ready by late 2014 or early 2015, meaning he’d be arriving right as the Twins start making their contending push.

These rumors seem to indicate a deal is all but done, and if true, the Twins would be foolish to pass. The opportunity to pick up another potential high end starter (to go alongside Alex Meyer, Trevor May, Kyle Gibson, Kohl Stewart, Michael Gonsalves, DJ Baxendale, JO Berrios and others) for an aging slugger who will not be part of your next contending team is one you dream about as a GM. The deal makes sense for the Pirates and the Twins, let’s hope it gets done.

Perkins “Not Available”

The Twins have been approached by the Cardinals, Braves, Red Sox and others about their price on Glen Perkins, to which the Twins have reportedly told teams “No price, not for sale”. I understand the concern the Twins have in moving a fan favorite and home grown talent in Glen Perkins, the recent All-Star has become the face of the franchise along with Joe Mauer and with fan favorite Justin Morneau likely out the door, trading Perkins could damage PR with the fans in the short time.

That being said, Perkins is a 30 year old closer having a career season. Baseball history has been unkind to closers, especially closers over their 30’s. With the exception of Mariano Rivera, every other ‘elite’ closer over the past 20 years has seen their elite status crumble in a few short seasons. By the time the Twins are seriously contending with their youth movement (2015, 2016) Perkins will be 32 / 33 and could be on the downside of his dominant status.

The time to trade him his now. And the perfect trade partner is just waiting…but it will take a lot of willpower for Twins fans to see Perkins go there.

The Detroit Tigers. (Yuck)

I feel sick just typing it, but from the Twins’ perspective it makes the absolute most sense. The Tigers are all in on winning a World Series – NOW – and they’re very close to being able to do that. Their one weakness? The backend of the bullpen .

The Tigers are reportedly wiling to part with their top prospect, OF Nick Castenallos, in exchange for an elite closer, which Perkins is. Casetenallos was originally a 3B prospect who the Tigers converted to an outfielder due to Miguel Cabrera’s spot at 3B. Scouts think he can easily be converted back to a 3B, but with Miguel Sano coming, the Twins don’t need a player at 3B either, but Castenallos’ other convertible position – 1B – is why the Twins should be making this deal. With Morneau gone, the team has an opening at 1B and Castenallos’ power bat would look mighty good their for the Twins in 2014 and beyond.

Castenallos is currently in AAA and by most accounts is Major League ready. The 21 year old is a power hitter that hits for a decent  average and can field his position as well. He’s the number one prospect in the Tigers system and would slide onto a Twins team that is just about to become flush with elite young talent.

If I’m the Twins, I don’t stop there. When you hold the best asset available and a team is desperate for that asset, you make them pay. The Tigers will need to toss in more, and I think the Twins would be able to get Drew Smyly in the deal as well. Smyly is essentially the Tigers’ 6^th starter, but with such a loaded and well preforming rotation, he’s been relegated to bullpen duty this season. His name has popped up in trades on and off again since last offseason and it’s no secret the Tigers would be willing to move him for a piece they desperately need – like a closer.

Have Detroit sweeten the pot by throwing in a projectable low level starting pitching prospect and we have a deal. Glen Perkins for Nick Castenallos, Drew Smyly and a player to be named later (I’d make the PTBNL conditional, each level the Tigers advance in the playoffs, the Twins get al little better prospect).

Yes, the Twins would effectively be handing the Tigers the ammo to win the World Series, and yes it would be by trading a Minnesota native and fan favorite player – but I think fans (who would be very uhappy at first) would understand in 2015 when their lineup looks something like this:

C: Joe Mauer

1B: Nick Castenallos

2B: Eddie Rosario

SS: Danny Santana or Free agent TBD (if Santana isn’t ready)

3B: Miguel Sano

LF: Oswaldo Arcia

CF: Byron Buxton

RF: Aaron Hicks

DH: Trevor Plouffe

Bench: Brian Dozier, Chris Parmelee, Josmil Pinto, Chris Colabello

With a potential batting order of:

1.       Byron Buxton

2.       Eddie Rosario

3.       Joe Mauer

4.       Miguel Sano

5.       Nick Castenallos

6.       Oswaldo Arcia

7.       Trevor Plouffe

8.       Aaron Hicks

9.       Danny Santana

Looks pretty good right? If Perkins gets moved to the Tigers, just picture that lineup and think happy thoughts. It’s for the best. It’s for the best.

Forecasting The Trade Deadline

The Minnesota Twins have lost 11 of their last 12 games and currently sit 15 games under .500 at 37-52. They’re 12.5 games back of the Tigers (prior to this evenings games) and rank towards the bottom of the league in starter’s ERA. After beginning 2013 looking like the ‘best case scenario’ Minnesota Twins, they’ve quickly plummeted to the ‘worst case scenario’ Twins.

This will likely be the third consecutive season losing 90+ games for the Twins. Their fans have largely stuck by the team (attendance is falling, but Target Field has yet to look like Marlins’ Park) essentially on the promise that young talent is coming to save the day.

During the past two seasons, the Twins have been in a precarious position at the trade deadline. In 2011, the Twins were reeling from a horrific, injury plagued start – but they picked up the tempo and put together a winning streak just before the All-Star break. On July 14^th, 2011 (the day following the All-Star break) the Twins beat the Royals 8-5, putting their record over the past 10 games at 7-3 and their overall record at 42-48. The Twins were riding a hot streak and they had a (longshot) at coming back in the AL Central. With the expiring contracts of Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel, Joe Nathan and others the Twins were in a great spot to make trades. Instead, they stood pat. They finished the year by going 21-51, brining their season record to 63-99.

On July 8^th, 2012 the Twins lost to the Rangers 3-4, dropping their record to 36-49. They were out of the race and not a contending team. For some reason, Terry Ryan largely stood pat at the deadline, moving only Francisco Liriano for Eduardo Escobar and Pedro Hernandez. Denard Span, despite being in high demand, was retained as were Jared Burton and Josh Willingham. The Twins finished the season 66-96.

The 2011 Twins’ refusal to make a trade was likely the product of not wanting to admit that last season’s division winning playoff team was not coming back. They were riding a bit of a hot streak and GM Bill Smith decided to gamble and see if they team could catch fire. Not moving expiring assets during a losing season is still an large mistake on the part of the GM, but you can at least talk yourself into the logic the Twins front office was likely employing.

In 2012, the Twins were at a crossroads. They were a bad team, this was evident. But, they had talent coming in the minor leagues – the only issue was that it wasn’t quite ready for the big show. They couldn’t deal their veterans and promote the young guys without making the product on the field entirely unwatchable. 2 years into a brand new stadium, that likely wasn’t an option. In hindsight, not moving Willingham and Span when the demand was highest was a mistake, but just like 2011, you can talk yourself into seeing the Twins logic.

That brings us back to 2013. We’ve established that the Twins are, once again, horrid and will not be a contending team this season. The difference is the youth movement that was so far away in 2012 is now taking shape on the horizon. Miguel Sano could see Target Field as soon as September and could be a regular at the big league level as soon as the start of 2014, but almost certainly by July of 2014. Eddie Rosario, the team’s future at 2B is proving to be just as able as Sano at climbing the ladder quickly. It’s not unreasonable to think he could be a fixture on the 2014 Twins roster. Alex Meyer and Trevor May will be close, if not on the roster, by 2014 and Aaron Hicks, Kyle Gibson and Oswaldo Arcia will all have full seasons of work under their belts. The 2014 Twins won’t likely contend (due to their youth) but they’ll be nearly there.

That means that this trade deadline NEEDS to be an active one for the Twins. Their minor league system will not flesh out an entire 25 man roster by itself, especially when it comes to starting pitching. But, with the youth movement coming there will be a few veterans who won’t have positions to field any longer – Terry Ryan can solve that logjam by dealing them 1 year before the youngsters are ready.

That likely means the Twins will have to make some hard moves. Parting with native Minnesotan and fan favorite Glen Perkins and long time Twin Justin Morneau are the two toughest decisions to make – but for the future of the club, they need to be done.

In fact, the Twins have 6 trade chips that they should move by July 31^st. Now, trading 6 players by the deadline is a nearly unprecedented jettisoning of talent and the team likely will not be making that severe of a move, but I’d argue that of the 6 names I’m going to present, the team should trade AT LEAST 3 and aim to move 4.

The ‘Trade Chips’:

Glen Perkins:

Contending teams need a closer. Losing teams do not. Glen Perkins has been one of the very few highlights for the Twins this season, but he’s a luxury that the team can easily turn into useable assets for the near future. With contending teams especially desperate for relief help this season the wise move is to open the gates and let teams outbid each other for Perkins’ services. Boston, Detroit, Texas, Atlanta, Baltimore and LA (NL) are all potential suitors and the Twins should ask for nothing less than TWO starting pitcher prospects. One of which needs to be Major League ready by 2014.

Justin Morneau:

Morneau’s power has been returning slowly, which bodes well for the Twins as July progresses. With his injury history and expiring contract, fans will have to temper expectations of what the Twins will get for Morneau (he’s not brining back Mike Olt in a trade) but he’s a left handed power bat who can play 1B. Contending teams are always looking for a big bat to DH for the stretch run – the fact that Morneau still plays 1B at a high level is a bonus. Texas, Baltimore, New York (AL), Cleveland and Tampa Bay are all potential matches for a trade. The Twins should be looking for a major league ready pitching prospect (mid level) or one high ceiling lower level prospect. Alternatively, flipping Morneau for a SS would be a wise move too. Tampa Bay’s Hak-Ju Lee straight up for Morneau makes sense for both squads (the Rays are deep at SS and need a big bat for a postseason push).

Ryan Doumit:

Doumit has a solid bat with power and can play a few defensive positions (all though none particularly well). Any team targeting him would be doing so strictly for the purposes of a DH role or bat bench / catching depth for a postseason push. Oddly enough, the Pirates would greatly benefit from getting Doumit (Doumit played for Pittsburgh prior to playing for the Twins) but they likely don’t have the chips they Twins would want in return. Doumit hasn’t been having a career year and his number are essentially league average, so the return won’t be overwhelming – but a team looking for a low cost DH upgrade could certainly do worse than Doumit. Potential suitors are all of the same that Morneau had, but Tampa Bay would move to the top of that list (Doumit seems like a player the Rays could use perfectly). The Twins would likely be getting a mid level starting pitching prospect (think Liam Hendriks, Andrew Albers, Kevin Correia quality) or a big league ready reliever in return.

Casey Fien:

As established in the Perkins’ bit, contending teams are in need of bullpen help this season. Fien is a fireball throwing righty with a solid ERA, low BABIP and decent K/BB ratios. He’s 29, so the Twins shouldn’t act like he’s a young piece of the next contending team – but his relatively young age means a contending team may be willing to part with a little more the with the safety of keeping Fien over 2+ seasons all but certain. You’d be hard pressed to get a pitching prospect for a reliever (after all, if a team had a big league ready pitching prospect, they’d simply use HIM to patch their holes). Fien is the type of player the Twins could flip for a middle infield prospect or bundle with another player to get back a little more in a trade. (For example, a Glen Perkins + Casey Fien trade to a team like Texas could net two starting pitching prospects and a middle infield prospect).

Jared Burton:

Everything written in Fien’s portion? It applies to Burton too. The ONLY reason Burton has fallen behind Fien in my rankings is his inconsistency over the past few weeks. Prior to looking completely hittable during that span, Burton looked like a prime candidate for a contending team to grab and convert into a closer. He still has the potential to be that for a contending team, but he’ll need to pitch well over the next few weeks for the Twins to get a better return from him. Right now he’d work great as an “add-in” to another trade. (Justin Mornea & Jared Burton to the Yankees for a AAA SP prospect and middle infielder, for example).

Kevin Correia:

Okay, I’ll wait for you to stop laughing. Yes, Kevin Correia has value, albeit not in the starting role the Twins are currently using him in. A contending team needs a long reliever too – and Correia could be a perfectly functional reliever for any club looking to make a postseason push. The tricky part here is finding value in a return ‘chip’. Teams won’t be giving the Twins much for Correia and it certainly won’t be big league ready pitching prospects (as in Fien’s case – why trade for something you already have in younger form?) The Twins should shop Correia for a AAA shortstop and nothing less. If you can’t get at least a competent SS back, Correia actually has more value on the 2014 Twins as an innings eater.

So, this begs the question, who do the Twins move and why? If I’m Terry Ryan (which, I am decidedly not as I have a majority of my hair and a fraction of his paycheck) I make the following moves:

Trade Glen Perkins & Casey Fien to the Boston Red Sox for Allen Webster and Brandon Workman

·    Boston beefs up their bullpen (and they have control over both players for the next couple of seasons) while the Twins pick up the #4 prospect in the Red Sox organization in Webster, who is currently in AAA and likely big league ready. Workman is a bit of an upside play – he’s 25 and still in AA, but he has the peripherals to be a big league starter if he keeps up his strong season. 

Trade Justin Morneau to the Tampa Bay Rays for Hak-Ju Lee

·    The Rays are deep at SS and Lee has been injured. Morneau is the bat their offense needs, but his injury history and expiring contract lessen his value. The result, two fresh starts for two players on teams that greatly need their depth. Win, win? I think so.

Trade Ryan Doumit and Jared Burton to the Baltimore Orioles for Josh Hader & Tyler Wilson.

·    The O’s want to contend in the AL East this season, to do that they’re going to need another bat and a little bullpen help wouldn’t hurt either. They don’t need Doumit for the catching depth, but that doesn’t hurt either. By throwing in Burton, the Twins will likely be able to get one more youngster out of the deal. The big piece of the trade (for the Twins) is Josh Hader, a ‘A’ ball pitcher with great upside. Wilson, a ‘AA’ righty, has great upside as well.

So, if you're keeping score at home, my time as hypothetical GM saw me trade away 5 of the 6 trade chips, netting upper tier starter (Allen Webster) one rotation filler (Brandon Workman) one starting SS (Hak-Ju Lee) and two future starters (Josh Harder & Tyler Wilson). 

The 2013 Twins immediately get much, much worse as young guys are promoted and the veterans are gone, but the 2014 team now has a potential starting rotation of Kyle Gibson, Trevor May, Allen Webster, Brandon Workman / Vance Worley and a free agent signing (more on that in the future). While the 2014 team also gets its SS of the future in Lee. In three moves, the Twins go from hopeless losing team to a team on the verge. Here's hoping the Twins take advantage of their spot on the rebuilding timeline and are aggressive sellers at the deadline. 

Parmelee's Big Opportunity

Following the Twins 7-3 loss to the New York Yankees last night, the team announced that Josh Willingham would be undergoing arthroscopic knee surgery to repair a torn meniscus in his right knee, an injury that was sustained on a poorly attempted stolen base in May. Willingham had an initial MRI following the injury, but no major damage was found. Apparently between May and July, Willingham exacerbated the injury to the point of tearing his meniscus. He’ll likely be out 4-6 weeks while he recovers from the surgery. The Twins placed Willingham on the 15 day DL prior to Tuesday’s game and recalled Aaron Hicks from AAA Rochester, ending his rehab assignment with the Red Wings.

While Willingham’s move to the DL was immediately beneficial for Aaron Hicks, he is not the player with the most to gain from this move. Hicks was likely to be back with the Twins by the end of the week regardless of Willingham’s status. Instead, the player who has the opportunity to benefit from this injury the most is none other than Chris Parmelee.

Entering 2013, Parmelee was slotted to play RF full time. After carving up AAA pitching in 2012, the Twins stated that Parmelee had nothing left to prove in the minors and that he would be given every chance to prove he could be a big league hitter.

Parmelee responded by starting incredibly slow in May and June, forcing Ron Gardenhire to play the hotter bats of Oswaldo Arcia and Ryan Doumit in RF over the powerful lefty. With Willingham out for the next month and a half, the Twins will likely roll out a lineup featuring Arcia in LF and Parmelee in RF (with Clete Thomas making the occasional appearance) for the foreseeable future.

Life rarely puts a spotlight on career defining moments, but Chris Parmelee’s situation effectively has the bat signal telling the whole world the scenario. You want to be an everyday starter? Here’s your chance to prove you belong.

So far in 2013, Parmelee has posted a .230/.312/.392 slash line with an OPS+ of 93. He’s knocked in 8 home runs and 18 RBI while striking out 54 times in 237 plate appearances. Those numbers aren’t good, especially for a player who is supposed to be a power bat in the lineup.

The small sample size argument doesn’t really apply for Parmelee anymore either. He’s tabbed 535 plate appearances over three seasons at the major league level. During that span he’s posted a slash of .239/.325/.419 with 17 home runs, 52 RBI and 152 strike outs. What we could originally write off as youthful inexperience and the simple matter of Parmelee not having enough time to play is beginning to take shape as the dreaded “trend”.

Parmelee’s closest Twins comparison has been Jason Kubel, with the Twins hoping that Parmelee would follow Kubel’s track of really developing into a power hitter as he matured. Instead, Parmelee’s regressed from his 2011 breakout (that was expected – but not to the extent he’s shown so far). When you graph Kubel vs. Parmelee, the stark contrast becomes apparent:

Simply put, as Kubel aged, he became a better and better hitter. So far, all Parmelee has done is regress below league average and stay put. With Willingham’s injury, Parmelee will once again be the team’s full time RF – and if he wants to be in the team’s plans for 2014 and beyond, he’ll need to prove that he can become the hitter the team expects him to be.