The Minnesota Twins have lost 11 of their last 12 games and currently sit 15 games under .500 at 37-52. They’re 12.5 games back of the Tigers (prior to this evenings games) and rank towards the bottom of the league in starter’s ERA. After beginning 2013 looking like the ‘best case scenario’ Minnesota Twins, they’ve quickly plummeted to the ‘worst case scenario’ Twins.
This will likely be the third consecutive season losing 90+ games for the Twins. Their fans have largely stuck by the team (attendance is falling, but Target Field has yet to look like Marlins’ Park) essentially on the promise that young talent is coming to save the day.
During the past two seasons, the Twins have been in a precarious position at the trade deadline. In 2011, the Twins were reeling from a horrific, injury plagued start – but they picked up the tempo and put together a winning streak just before the All-Star break. On July 14th, 2011 (the day following the All-Star break) the Twins beat the Royals 8-5, putting their record over the past 10 games at 7-3 and their overall record at 42-48. The Twins were riding a hot streak and they had a (longshot) at coming back in the AL Central. With the expiring contracts of Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel, Joe Nathan and others the Twins were in a great spot to make trades. Instead, they stood pat. They finished the year by going 21-51, brining their season record to 63-99.
On July 8th, 2012 the Twins lost to the Rangers 3-4, dropping their record to 36-49. They were out of the race and not a contending team. For some reason, Terry Ryan largely stood pat at the deadline, moving only Francisco Liriano for Eduardo Escobar and Pedro Hernandez. Denard Span, despite being in high demand, was retained as were Jared Burton and Josh Willingham. The Twins finished the season 66-96.
The 2011 Twins’ refusal to make a trade was likely the product of not wanting to admit that last season’s division winning playoff team was not coming back. They were riding a bit of a hot streak and GM Bill Smith decided to gamble and see if they team could catch fire. Not moving expiring assets during a losing season is still an large mistake on the part of the GM, but you can at least talk yourself into the logic the Twins front office was likely employing.
In 2012, the Twins were at a crossroads. They were a bad team, this was evident. But, they had talent coming in the minor leagues – the only issue was that it wasn’t quite ready for the big show. They couldn’t deal their veterans and promote the young guys without making the product on the field entirely unwatchable. 2 years into a brand new stadium, that likely wasn’t an option. In hindsight, not moving Willingham and Span when the demand was highest was a mistake, but just like 2011, you can talk yourself into seeing the Twins logic.
That brings us back to 2013. We’ve established that the Twins are, once again, horrid and will not be a contending team this season. The difference is the youth movement that was so far away in 2012 is now taking shape on the horizon. Miguel Sano could see Target Field as soon as September and could be a regular at the big league level as soon as the start of 2014, but almost certainly by July of 2014. Eddie Rosario, the team’s future at 2B is proving to be just as able as Sano at climbing the ladder quickly. It’s not unreasonable to think he could be a fixture on the 2014 Twins roster. Alex Meyer and Trevor May will be close, if not on the roster, by 2014 and Aaron Hicks, Kyle Gibson and Oswaldo Arcia will all have full seasons of work under their belts. The 2014 Twins won’t likely contend (due to their youth) but they’ll be nearly there.
That means that this trade deadline NEEDS to be an active one for the Twins. Their minor league system will not flesh out an entire 25 man roster by itself, especially when it comes to starting pitching. But, with the youth movement coming there will be a few veterans who won’t have positions to field any longer – Terry Ryan can solve that logjam by dealing them 1 year before the youngsters are ready.
That likely means the Twins will have to make some hard moves. Parting with native Minnesotan and fan favorite Glen Perkins and long time Twin Justin Morneau are the two toughest decisions to make – but for the future of the club, they need to be done.
In fact, the Twins have 6 trade chips that they should move by July 31st. Now, trading 6 players by the deadline is a nearly unprecedented jettisoning of talent and the team likely will not be making that severe of a move, but I’d argue that of the 6 names I’m going to present, the team should trade AT LEAST 3 and aim to move 4.
The ‘Trade Chips’:
Glen Perkins:
Contending teams need a closer. Losing teams do not. Glen Perkins has been one of the very few highlights for the Twins this season, but he’s a luxury that the team can easily turn into useable assets for the near future. With contending teams especially desperate for relief help this season the wise move is to open the gates and let teams outbid each other for Perkins’ services. Boston, Detroit, Texas, Atlanta, Baltimore and LA (NL) are all potential suitors and the Twins should ask for nothing less than TWO starting pitcher prospects. One of which needs to be Major League ready by 2014.
Justin Morneau:
Morneau’s power has been returning slowly, which bodes well for the Twins as July progresses. With his injury history and expiring contract, fans will have to temper expectations of what the Twins will get for Morneau (he’s not brining back Mike Olt in a trade) but he’s a left handed power bat who can play 1B. Contending teams are always looking for a big bat to DH for the stretch run – the fact that Morneau still plays 1B at a high level is a bonus. Texas, Baltimore, New York (AL), Cleveland and Tampa Bay are all potential matches for a trade. The Twins should be looking for a major league ready pitching prospect (mid level) or one high ceiling lower level prospect. Alternatively, flipping Morneau for a SS would be a wise move too. Tampa Bay’s Hak-Ju Lee straight up for Morneau makes sense for both squads (the Rays are deep at SS and need a big bat for a postseason push).
Ryan Doumit:
Doumit has a solid bat with power and can play a few defensive positions (all though none particularly well). Any team targeting him would be doing so strictly for the purposes of a DH role or bat bench / catching depth for a postseason push. Oddly enough, the Pirates would greatly benefit from getting Doumit (Doumit played for Pittsburgh prior to playing for the Twins) but they likely don’t have the chips they Twins would want in return. Doumit hasn’t been having a career year and his number are essentially league average, so the return won’t be overwhelming – but a team looking for a low cost DH upgrade could certainly do worse than Doumit. Potential suitors are all of the same that Morneau had, but Tampa Bay would move to the top of that list (Doumit seems like a player the Rays could use perfectly). The Twins would likely be getting a mid level starting pitching prospect (think Liam Hendriks, Andrew Albers, Kevin Correia quality) or a big league ready reliever in return.
Casey Fien:
As established in the Perkins’ bit, contending teams are in need of bullpen help this season. Fien is a fireball throwing righty with a solid ERA, low BABIP and decent K/BB ratios. He’s 29, so the Twins shouldn’t act like he’s a young piece of the next contending team – but his relatively young age means a contending team may be willing to part with a little more the with the safety of keeping Fien over 2+ seasons all but certain. You’d be hard pressed to get a pitching prospect for a reliever (after all, if a team had a big league ready pitching prospect, they’d simply use HIM to patch their holes). Fien is the type of player the Twins could flip for a middle infield prospect or bundle with another player to get back a little more in a trade. (For example, a Glen Perkins + Casey Fien trade to a team like Texas could net two starting pitching prospects and a middle infield prospect).
Jared Burton:
Everything written in Fien’s portion? It applies to Burton too. The ONLY reason Burton has fallen behind Fien in my rankings is his inconsistency over the past few weeks. Prior to looking completely hittable during that span, Burton looked like a prime candidate for a contending team to grab and convert into a closer. He still has the potential to be that for a contending team, but he’ll need to pitch well over the next few weeks for the Twins to get a better return from him. Right now he’d work great as an “add-in” to another trade. (Justin Mornea & Jared Burton to the Yankees for a AAA SP prospect and middle infielder, for example).
Kevin Correia:
Okay, I’ll wait for you to stop laughing. Yes, Kevin Correia has value, albeit not in the starting role the Twins are currently using him in. A contending team needs a long reliever too – and Correia could be a perfectly functional reliever for any club looking to make a postseason push. The tricky part here is finding value in a return ‘chip’. Teams won’t be giving the Twins much for Correia and it certainly won’t be big league ready pitching prospects (as in Fien’s case – why trade for something you already have in younger form?) The Twins should shop Correia for a AAA shortstop and nothing less. If you can’t get at least a competent SS back, Correia actually has more value on the 2014 Twins as an innings eater.
So, this begs the question, who do the Twins move and why? If I’m Terry Ryan (which, I am decidedly not as I have a majority of my hair and a fraction of his paycheck) I make the following moves:
Trade Glen Perkins & Casey Fien to the Boston Red Sox for Allen Webster and Brandon Workman
· Boston beefs up their bullpen (and they have control over both players for the next couple of seasons) while the Twins pick up the #4 prospect in the Red Sox organization in Webster, who is currently in AAA and likely big league ready. Workman is a bit of an upside play – he’s 25 and still in AA, but he has the peripherals to be a big league starter if he keeps up his strong season.
Trade Justin Morneau to the Tampa Bay Rays for Hak-Ju Lee
· The Rays are deep at SS and Lee has been injured. Morneau is the bat their offense needs, but his injury history and expiring contract lessen his value. The result, two fresh starts for two players on teams that greatly need their depth. Win, win? I think so.
Trade Ryan Doumit and Jared Burton to the Baltimore Orioles for Josh Hader & Tyler Wilson.
· The O’s want to contend in the AL East this season, to do that they’re going to need another bat and a little bullpen help wouldn’t hurt either. They don’t need Doumit for the catching depth, but that doesn’t hurt either. By throwing in Burton, the Twins will likely be able to get one more youngster out of the deal. The big piece of the trade (for the Twins) is Josh Hader, a ‘A’ ball pitcher with great upside. Wilson, a ‘AA’ righty, has great upside as well.
So, if you're keeping score at home, my time as hypothetical GM saw me trade away 5 of the 6 trade chips, netting upper tier starter (Allen Webster) one rotation filler (Brandon Workman) one starting SS (Hak-Ju Lee) and two future starters (Josh Harder & Tyler Wilson).
The 2013 Twins immediately get much, much worse as young guys are promoted and the veterans are gone, but the 2014 team now has a potential starting rotation of Kyle Gibson, Trevor May, Allen Webster, Brandon Workman / Vance Worley and a free agent signing (more on that in the future). While the 2014 team also gets its SS of the future in Lee. In three moves, the Twins go from hopeless losing team to a team on the verge. Here's hoping the Twins take advantage of their spot on the rebuilding timeline and are aggressive sellers at the deadline.
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