Parmelee's Big Opportunity

Following the Twins 7-3 loss to the New York Yankees last night, the team announced that Josh Willingham would be undergoing arthroscopic knee surgery to repair a torn meniscus in his right knee, an injury that was sustained on a poorly attempted stolen base in May. Willingham had an initial MRI following the injury, but no major damage was found. Apparently between May and July, Willingham exacerbated the injury to the point of tearing his meniscus. He’ll likely be out 4-6 weeks while he recovers from the surgery. The Twins placed Willingham on the 15 day DL prior to Tuesday’s game and recalled Aaron Hicks from AAA Rochester, ending his rehab assignment with the Red Wings.

While Willingham’s move to the DL was immediately beneficial for Aaron Hicks, he is not the player with the most to gain from this move. Hicks was likely to be back with the Twins by the end of the week regardless of Willingham’s status. Instead, the player who has the opportunity to benefit from this injury the most is none other than Chris Parmelee.

Entering 2013, Parmelee was slotted to play RF full time. After carving up AAA pitching in 2012, the Twins stated that Parmelee had nothing left to prove in the minors and that he would be given every chance to prove he could be a big league hitter.

Parmelee responded by starting incredibly slow in May and June, forcing Ron Gardenhire to play the hotter bats of Oswaldo Arcia and Ryan Doumit in RF over the powerful lefty. With Willingham out for the next month and a half, the Twins will likely roll out a lineup featuring Arcia in LF and Parmelee in RF (with Clete Thomas making the occasional appearance) for the foreseeable future.

Life rarely puts a spotlight on career defining moments, but Chris Parmelee’s situation effectively has the bat signal telling the whole world the scenario. You want to be an everyday starter? Here’s your chance to prove you belong.

So far in 2013, Parmelee has posted a .230/.312/.392 slash line with an OPS+ of 93. He’s knocked in 8 home runs and 18 RBI while striking out 54 times in 237 plate appearances. Those numbers aren’t good, especially for a player who is supposed to be a power bat in the lineup.

The small sample size argument doesn’t really apply for Parmelee anymore either. He’s tabbed 535 plate appearances over three seasons at the major league level. During that span he’s posted a slash of .239/.325/.419 with 17 home runs, 52 RBI and 152 strike outs. What we could originally write off as youthful inexperience and the simple matter of Parmelee not having enough time to play is beginning to take shape as the dreaded “trend”.

Parmelee’s closest Twins comparison has been Jason Kubel, with the Twins hoping that Parmelee would follow Kubel’s track of really developing into a power hitter as he matured. Instead, Parmelee’s regressed from his 2011 breakout (that was expected – but not to the extent he’s shown so far). When you graph Kubel vs. Parmelee, the stark contrast becomes apparent:

Simply put, as Kubel aged, he became a better and better hitter. So far, all Parmelee has done is regress below league average and stay put. With Willingham’s injury, Parmelee will once again be the team’s full time RF – and if he wants to be in the team’s plans for 2014 and beyond, he’ll need to prove that he can become the hitter the team expects him to be.