The next few weeks figure to be active ones for all of the Major League teams. Contenders will ship off prospects to last place squads in exchange for key pieces for a run at the title. Fringe teams will decide between pushing their chips all in or hedging their bets for the future. The Minnesota Twins will obviously be on the selling side of this equation (yet again) but the degree as to which they’re sellers has yet to be determined.
Recent reports make it sound like the team is willing to move at least one key piece, first baseman Justin Morneau. Morneau’s had a bit of comeback season, batting .273/.331/.406 but his power numbers have been a shell of what they once were as Morneau has only clubbed 7 long balls this season.
Ever since Morneau’s 2010 concussion shortened season, the Twins’ slugger hasn’t quite been the ‘real’ Justin Morneau. As he battled through concussion symptoms, wrist and neck injuries he looked lost at the plate, with his power numbers nearly non-existent and his approach at the plate more ‘swing and pray’ less ‘plan of attack’. As he enters the final year of his contract with the Twins, Morneau’s done enough to put his name on the short list of available impact bats as the deadline approaches.
The Twins were reportedly approached by Morneau’s agents within the past month and simply declined to negotiate an extension for the coming seasons. From the Twins’ point of view that makes perfect sense, there’s no rush to extend Morneau, especially if a team comes along and makes you a solid offer. If the deadline comes and goes and the team doesn’t find a taker for Morneau, you can then return to the negotiating table and try to get a deal done.
This decision is also very telling. The Twins’ first priority seems to be trading Morneau, if they really didn’t want to move him, they’d be working on extension and simply making sure they had their own ducks in a row for the coming seasons. By holding off until they don’t have any other options, the Twins have effectively tipped their hand – they’re selling #33.
As has been speculated all season, the Rays, Yankees and Red Sox are interested in the power hitting lefty. Each team is in the midst of a playoff push and each team could really use an impact bat to boost their offense. I mentioned in a post last week that I felt the best fit for Morneau (and the Twins) would be a trade to Tampa Bay. The Rays have the pieces the Twins would want for Justin and he provides the very thing the Rays offense needs – power.
However, it’s recently been revealed that there’s at least one more player in the market for a slugger that we hadn’t discussed; the Pittsburgh Pirates.
The move makes perfect sense for the Pirates, who are in the midst of their best season in over 20 years. They’re one of the best teams in the National League, but are likely to find themselves in a very tight race with the Reds and Cardinals all season. They have great pitching depth, but could really use a big bat to boost their offense. Trading for Morneau makes perfect sense.
The Pirates also have the pieces that the Twins would be looking for in a trade, mainly young pitching prospects. Recent reports have the Pirates offering 19 year old righty Tyler Glasnow as the return for Justin, which, if true, would be a great get for the Twins. Glasnow currently pitches for the Pirates high A affiliate in West Virginia. He’s a power pitcher with a good strikeout to walk ratio and is projectable into a top of the rotation starter. He’d likely begin 2014 in AA, but could be big league ready by late 2014 or early 2015, meaning he’d be arriving right as the Twins start making their contending push.
These rumors seem to indicate a deal is all but done, and if true, the Twins would be foolish to pass. The opportunity to pick up another potential high end starter (to go alongside Alex Meyer, Trevor May, Kyle Gibson, Kohl Stewart, Michael Gonsalves, DJ Baxendale, JO Berrios and others) for an aging slugger who will not be part of your next contending team is one you dream about as a GM. The deal makes sense for the Pirates and the Twins, let’s hope it gets done.
Perkins “Not Available”
The Twins have been approached by the Cardinals, Braves, Red Sox and others about their price on Glen Perkins, to which the Twins have reportedly told teams “No price, not for sale”. I understand the concern the Twins have in moving a fan favorite and home grown talent in Glen Perkins, the recent All-Star has become the face of the franchise along with Joe Mauer and with fan favorite Justin Morneau likely out the door, trading Perkins could damage PR with the fans in the short time.
That being said, Perkins is a 30 year old closer having a career season. Baseball history has been unkind to closers, especially closers over their 30’s. With the exception of Mariano Rivera, every other ‘elite’ closer over the past 20 years has seen their elite status crumble in a few short seasons. By the time the Twins are seriously contending with their youth movement (2015, 2016) Perkins will be 32 / 33 and could be on the downside of his dominant status.
The time to trade him his now. And the perfect trade partner is just waiting…but it will take a lot of willpower for Twins fans to see Perkins go there.
The Detroit Tigers. (Yuck)
I feel sick just typing it, but from the Twins’ perspective it makes the absolute most sense. The Tigers are all in on winning a World Series – NOW – and they’re very close to being able to do that. Their one weakness? The backend of the bullpen .
The Tigers are reportedly wiling to part with their top prospect, OF Nick Castenallos, in exchange for an elite closer, which Perkins is. Casetenallos was originally a 3B prospect who the Tigers converted to an outfielder due to Miguel Cabrera’s spot at 3B. Scouts think he can easily be converted back to a 3B, but with Miguel Sano coming, the Twins don’t need a player at 3B either, but Castenallos’ other convertible position – 1B – is why the Twins should be making this deal. With Morneau gone, the team has an opening at 1B and Castenallos’ power bat would look mighty good their for the Twins in 2014 and beyond.
Castenallos is currently in AAA and by most accounts is Major League ready. The 21 year old is a power hitter that hits for a decent average and can field his position as well. He’s the number one prospect in the Tigers system and would slide onto a Twins team that is just about to become flush with elite young talent.
If I’m the Twins, I don’t stop there. When you hold the best asset available and a team is desperate for that asset, you make them pay. The Tigers will need to toss in more, and I think the Twins would be able to get Drew Smyly in the deal as well. Smyly is essentially the Tigers’ 6th starter, but with such a loaded and well preforming rotation, he’s been relegated to bullpen duty this season. His name has popped up in trades on and off again since last offseason and it’s no secret the Tigers would be willing to move him for a piece they desperately need – like a closer.
Have Detroit sweeten the pot by throwing in a projectable low level starting pitching prospect and we have a deal. Glen Perkins for Nick Castenallos, Drew Smyly and a player to be named later (I’d make the PTBNL conditional, each level the Tigers advance in the playoffs, the Twins get al little better prospect).
Yes, the Twins would effectively be handing the Tigers the ammo to win the World Series, and yes it would be by trading a Minnesota native and fan favorite player – but I think fans (who would be very uhappy at first) would understand in 2015 when their lineup looks something like this:
C: Joe Mauer
1B: Nick Castenallos
2B: Eddie Rosario
SS: Danny Santana or Free agent TBD (if Santana isn’t ready)
3B: Miguel Sano
LF: Oswaldo Arcia
CF: Byron Buxton
RF: Aaron Hicks
DH: Trevor Plouffe
Bench: Brian Dozier, Chris Parmelee, Josmil Pinto, Chris Colabello
With a potential batting order of:
1. Byron Buxton
2. Eddie Rosario
3. Joe Mauer
4. Miguel Sano
5. Nick Castenallos
6. Oswaldo Arcia
7. Trevor Plouffe
8. Aaron Hicks
9. Danny Santana
Looks pretty good right? If Perkins gets moved to the Tigers, just picture that lineup and think happy thoughts. It’s for the best. It’s for the best.
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