Twins Prospect Rundown

It’s been a quiet month on my blog because it’s been a quiet month for the Minnesota Twins. The Yankees landed Masahiro Tanaka, to the surprise of no one, while the Brewers grabbed Matt Garza – to everyone’s surprise.

With the big fish Tanaka off the market, the remaining free agents are likely to find homes soon and there are still some guy out there (Arroyo, Santana, Cruz) that have a connection to the Twins and could end up in Minnesota before spring training begins. When the ice begins to break and players begin to sign, we’ll discuss the moves the Twins made (or didn’t make) until then, let’s begin another spring tradition; prospect rankings.

MLB.com and Baseball Prospectus have debuted their 2014 prospect lists already this month and many more sites will be following shortly. I ran my own list (see it here) last year. I always grade my prospects a bit differently than the big sites. They like to weigh how close a prospect is making his debut in their rankings (the top of the list is usually AA & AAA heavy, while the low A guys are at the bottom). I like to look at talent and impact. I don’t care as much about how close you are to helping the big league club, I want to go on your talent RIGHT NOW plus POTENTIAL growth. Got it? Cool. Let’s list!

1. Byron Buxton (CF)

2013 Stats: .334/.424/.520, 12 HR, 77 RBI, 55 SB (Combined stats from A-, A+ ball)

Projected 2014 Level: AA New Britain

Projected MLB Debut: Late 2014 or Mid 2015

Byron Buxton is a one of a kind talent, that much became apparent after the 20 year old from Georgia finished his first full minor league season. He already shows great vision and discipline at the plate, which is impressive for a young player that many believed would struggle initially when he faced professional competition for the first time. That struggle never happened and Buxton is currently on the fast track to the big leagues, likely appearing in AA New Britain to start the season and making a big league debut within the next year if all goes well.

Buxton is nearly off the charts on the traditional scouting 20-80 scales. He’s a true 5 tool player that rates above average in bat (70), speed (70), defense (80), arm (70) and power (65). Even his WORST tool, power, is above average and many scouts think that will soon catch up with his other skills. The scariest part? Buxton believe he can (and will) get better. Buxton has been placed atop all of the MLB prospect lists, so it’s not much of a surprise that he comes out as the Twins best prospect.

2. Miguel Sano (3B)

2013 Stats: .280/.382/.610, 35 HR, 103 RBI (Combined stats from A+, AA ball)

Projected 2014 Level: AA New Britain before AAA Rochester

Projected MLB Debut: 2014 (Midseason)

In any other system in baseball, Miguel Sano would rank as the top prospect. In the Twins’ system, he’s number two and it’s not even that close of a race. That’s great news for the Twins, because their default #2 prospect is an absolute monster at the plate. His power gives him the ability to turn any pitch he can hit into a souvenir. He will generate some swings and misses, but his contact is actually improving and nothing to scoff at. Many scouts predict Sano will be able to hit for a respectable average while clobbering 40-50 home runs per season.

Sano’s defense has been his biggest question mark as the former short stop turned third baseman is a bit large for the position. His footwork is improving and he has the arm strength to make the tough throws across the diamond, however, so tales of Sano being moved from 3B seem a bit premature.

It’s likely the Twins give Sano a few weeks in AA before moving him to AAA in the first month or two of the season. I would then full expect Sano to make his debut by June or July in Minnesota. There’s little left for the mighty slugger to prove in the minors – it’s time for one of the Twins’ faces of the feature to hit the show.

3. Alex Meyer  (P)

2013 Stats: 104.1 IP, 3.02 ERA, 11 K/9,

2014 Projected Level: AAA Rochester

Projected MLB Debut: 2014 (Early)

Some fans in Minnesota cried foul when the Twins traded beloved CF Denard Span straight up for Alex Meyer, but their fears have since been quelled as Meyer has proven just how good he can be. Despite struggling with a shoulder injury through last season, Meyer still managed to throw 104 innings, featuring his mid 90’s fastball and sharp curve.

He’s the first wave of the changing mindset of the Twins when it comes to pitchers. Meyer is NOT a pitch to contact guy. He is, without question, a strikeout pitcher. Meyer is big league ready, but I think the Twins will give him a few starts in AAA to get in shape while they feel out the back end of their own rotation. So long as he’s healthy, there is no way Meyer doesn’t make his Twins debut this season.

4. Eddie Roasario (2B/OF)

2013 Stats: .293/.338/.494, 10 HR, 12 SB (Combined stats from A+, AA last season)

2014 Projected Level: AA (Midseason) AAA (last two months)

Projected MLB Debut: 2015 (Midseason)

Rosario’s timetable is thrown off due to a drug suspension (recreational drug use, reportedly marijuana) that will cost him 50 games of the 2014 season. Without that suspension, Rosario would likely be making his Target Field debut around July of this season. Instead, he’ll likely begin 2014 in AA to work off the rust before moving to AAA to finish the year. There’s a chance he could be a September call up for the Twins this year, but I doubt the organization will make that move.

It’s a shame Rosario made this mistake, because the youngster has some great talent. The one time outfielder was in the process of being converted into a 2B (due to the organization’s lack of depth at the position) before Brian Dozier broke onto the scene in 2013. He’s since been shifted back to the OF, but still has the potential to play 2B, where his defense was improving quite nicely, according to scouts.

The real strength of Rosario’s game is his bat. Scouts believe he can hit for average in the bigs RIGHT now, as his bat speed and plate vision are that good. He’s lacking power, but that doesn’t mean he still can’t hit 10-15 home runs per season. He’s speedy enough to be a threat on the bases, but won’t lead the league in steals each season – all in all, Rosario has the potential to be a great piece to build a team around. He’ll get on base, has respectable power and the ability to play 2 positions above average defensively.

5. Kohl Stewart (P)

2013 Stats: 20 IP, 1.35 ERA, 10.5 K/9

2014 Projected Level: A- (Early) A+ (Late)

Projected MLB Debut: 2016

Stewart is our first long term project, but it’s going to be worth waiting for the Texas 19 year old to develop. His professional debut was cut short due to arm fatigue, but what little we saw was very impressive. Stewart features a mid 90’s fastball with lots of natural movement. He also throws a plus rated slider, solid curve and a changeup that has the potential to be a plus pitch as well.

Stewart is expected to grow into his frame, which will help increase his fastball speed into the upper 90’s. He needs to work on control, but scouts believe that is just a matter of working with the right pitching coaches to develop a routine to keep his mechanics consistent. He’ll likely see time in Cedar Rapids for most of 2014, but I would expect a late promotion to Fort Myers before the year is done. He’s still 2 years away, but the Twins have to be excited about the immense talent Stewart has shown so far.

6. Josmil Pinto (C)

2013 Stats: .342/.398/.566 (September MLB Stats)

2014 Projected Level: AAA / MLB

Projected MLB Debut: He debuted in 2013, but I’d say full time in 2014 (May)

Pinto barely qualifies as a prospect any more since he may break spring training on the big league roster, but his 84 plate appearances in September don’t cost him his rookie status, so they shouldn’t cost him his prospect ranking either.

Pinto had languished in the Twins system for 3 years before suddenly finding life in his bat in 2011. Since then, he has rocketed through the Twins system, posting great offensive numbers along the way. Pinto’s bat is his strong point, as he shows great vision at the plate and the ability to make solid contact with what he swings at. He has solid power (20 – 25 home runs per season likely). His one soft spot is defense, which is average or slightly below average. The Twins hope that coaching and practice will bring Pinto to a respectable level but even he stays below average defensively, his bat will earn him a spot in the lineup.

7. Jose Berrios (P)

2013 Stats: 103.2 IP, 3.99 ERA, 8.7 K/9

2014 Projected Level: A+ Fort Myers

Projected MLB Debut: 2015 (late) 2016

Berrios is a player many look over when listing the best in the Twins’ system, and that’s a mistake. The 19 year old from Puerto Rico has a much talent as nearly every other pitcher in the system. At 6’0” and 187, Berrios is a smaller pitcher, but that doesn’t cost him any velocity. He features a fastball that touches the high 90’s and can even hit triple digits on the radar gun. He has an assortment of secondary pitches including a curve and change up that will need some work, but could be potential plus pitches if he can master them.

Berrios is still rough around the edges, which will likely mean a slower path to the majors so he can develop better control and polish his secondary offerings. If he can do that, however, there’s very little stopping Berrios from being one of the best pitchers in the big leagues. He has that much talent. Even if he doesn’t pan out to be a starter, Berrios could potentially be one very difficult bullpen arm. Either way, Jose is a player Twins fans will want to keep an eye on in the coming years.

8. Stephen Gonsalves (P)

2013 Stats: 28 IP, .95 ERA, 12.4 K/9

2014 Projected Level: A- Cedar Rapids

Projected MLB Debut: 2016

I’ll admit I’m a bit higher on Gonsalves than other national outlets are, but that’s because I’m willing to see what he can become. What he is right now is a hard throwing left hander that profiles very similarly to Kohl Stewart, the 4^th overall pick in the 2013 draft. So why is Gonsalves often overlooked, especially given that he’s a lefty? He got into some trouble during his senior year in high school and was kicked off his team. There were concerns about his character and his drive before the draft and those concerns caused the promising lefty to fall into the fourth round.

The Twins believe they have the staff to keep Gonsalves on the right path and the coaches to help develop his raw talent into something more. When it comes to raw talent, Gonsalves has it in spades. He features a plus fastball, but also has solid secondary pitches that should improve with coaching. His professional debut was short, but Gonsalves exceled in the limited opportunity, earning a promotion from the Gulf Coast League to the Appalachian League after only 8 appearances. His makeup and skills are good enough that I believe he’ll start in Cedar Rapids in 2014. The Twins won’t rush him, but he could end the year in Fort Myers if he blows away the competition in the Midwest League.

Gonsalves reminds me of a left handed Kohl Stewart, so long as he can continue to turn his pure talent into pitching skill, he’ll be a bright star in the Twins rotation in 2 years.

9. Danny Santana (SS)

2013 Stats: .297/.333/.386, 2 HR, 45 RBI, 30 SB

2014 Projected Level: AAA Rochester

Projected MLB Debut: 2014 (Mid season)

Danny Santana has been on many Twins fans’ radar for the past several years. The organization has be devoid of any depth at SS since trading away Jason Bartlett and JJ Hardy – so a bright spot, any bright spot, is a welcome sign. Santana may be that bright spot. After a slow start to his professional career, Santana has taken off in the past two seasons, earning promotions each season. He finished 2013 in AA and will likely begin 2014 in AAA but is not that far now from taking his first cuts at Target Field.

Santana’s strength is his offense. He boasts solid contact and the ability to hit for a good average while limiting strikeouts. He doesn’t have much for power, but his speed makes him a threat to steal once he gets on base. The weak spot in Santana’s game is his defense. He committed 32 errors at SS in 2013, which is far too many for a defensive minded club like the Twins. Scouts have reported that Santana could reduce some of those errors by working on his footwork and not rushing his throws. Hopefully with a little more coaching and some time in AAA, Santana can figure out how to reduce some of his defensive miscues, because his bat is ready for the big leagues right now.

10. Jorge Polanco (2B/SS)

2013 Stats: .308/.362/.452, 5 HR, 78 RBI

2014 Projected Level: A+ Fort Myers / AA New Britain (Late)

Projected MBL Debut: 2015 (Late)

Hot on Santana’s heels is Jorge Polanco. Polanco has been in the Twins system since 2010, but he’s only 20 years old, so it’s not as if he’s a slow riser. Over the past two seasons, his offense has begun to develop nicely, culminating in a great stat line from Cedar Rapids in 2013. He’s above average defensively and scouts believe his range will improve as he improves his footwork.

Polanco doesn’t have much in the way of power and is simply average when it comes to speed, but the ability to hit for average and play defense in the middle infield is a welcome thing. He’s more likely to end up at 2B than SS, which hurts his value a little (that’s why others rank him around 12^th in the system) but there’s no reason to count him out of the SS race for now. I have Polanco making his debut in September of 2015 or the early portion of 2016. He’s got some time to develop, but the potential is there for Polanco to be a special player.

Rounding out my top 20:

11. Max Kepler (OF)
12. DJ Hicks (1B)
13. Lewis Thorpe (P)
14. Trevor May (P)
15. Felix Jorge (P)
16. Kennys Vargas (1B)
17. Travis Harrison (3B/1B)
18. Stuart Turner (C)
19. Ryan Eades (P)
20. Niko Goodrum (SS/2B)

I’ll readily admit I’m probably banking too highly on Gonalves’ potential and thus have him a bit too high. If I were to knock players for how close they are to being major league ready, I’d bump him out of the top 10 and Move Kepler into his spot.

All things considered, however, the Twins have one talented farm system. Goodrum and Eades could easily be top 10 guys in other systems and they struggled to make my top 20 list. Other players such as Daniel Bard, a talented starting pitching prospect, aren’t even on the list. That leads to great things for the Twins future and a reason for fans to be excited.

Do The Twins Need To Keep Shopping?

The Twins have had an active offseason so far, signing free agent pitchers Ricky Nolasco, Phil Hughes and resigning Mike Pelfrey. They’ve also added catcher Kurt Suzuki and traded catcher / designated hitter Ryan Doumit for left handed pitcher Sean Gilmartin. As I mentioned in my last post, they’ve also been linked to Bronson Arroyo and Matt Garza and there may or may not be interest in Stephen Drew. This uncharacteristic activity is a welcome sign from a Twins team that has languished to the bottom of the AL Central with 90+ losses in each of the last three seasons. Any additional moves would be quite the surprise, give the large amount of activity already completed from the Twins – but the rumors persist – the Twins are still shopping.

The question is, do they need to?

While it’s easy to say that a 90 loss team should acquire all the talent they can, there comes a point where talent acquisition doesn’t actually improve your current team. Have the Twins reached that point? Where should the Twins be focusing their last few signings – pitchers, infield, outfield depth? Let’s take a look at the roster as it stands on 1/6/2014 and figure out just where the Twins should place their attention.

Starting Pitchers:

Ricky Nolasco

Phil Hughes

Mike Pelfrey

Kevin Correia

Samuel Deduno / Scott Diamond / Vance Worley / Andrew Albers

Bullpen:

Anthony Swarzak

Brian Duensing

Ryan Pressly

Caleb Thielbar

Casey Fien

Jared Burton

Glen Perkins

Simply by adding Nolasco and Hughes, the Twins have made massive upgrades to their rotation for 2014. That being said, I think they could do a little more. With the rotation as it stands, the Twins are relying on Nolasco’s 2013 not being an aberration as well as relying on Phil Hughes to post better (IE non Yankee Stadium) numbers at Target Field AND relying on Mike Pelfrey looking like July / August 2013 Mike Pelfrey, not May / June 2013 Mike Pelfrey.

That’s a lot of conditions that could potentially swing a good rotation to a horrendous rotation (also, to be fair, they could swing to a superb rotation). The Twins would be wise to shore up their bets by adding one more arm. Depending on how bold they feel, that arm could be Matt Garza or Bronson Arroyo – but either addition would be an upgrade. Adding Garza /Arroyo would bump one of the fringe starters (Diamond, Worley, Deduno, Albers) to the bullpen. Given the present build of the bullpen, I’d wager that Diamond would be the leading candidate to move into a long reliever role. This move would also slide Kevin Correia or Mike Pelfrey into the #5 starter role, which they could then give up to Alex Meyer, when he proves he’s ready for the show.

By adding one more starter, the Twins could have a July rotation that looks something like this:

Starters:

Garza

Nolasco

Hughes

Peflrey

Meyer

Bullpen:

Diamond

Correia

Swarzak / Duensing

Fien

Thielbar

Burton

Perkins

Factor in the minor league arms the Twins added to the 40 man roster (Ibarra, Darnell, Johnson, Tonkin) plus Kyle Gibson and Trevor May and you’ve got a lot of depth in the pitching staff. One more arm makes that depth even better.

Moving on to the positions players, the move of Joe Mauer to first base created a bit of a problem for the Twins. Chris Parmelee and Chris Colabello, who were likely going to timeshare 1B in 2014 prior to Mauer’s move, are now the odd men out while Josmil Pinto – who would have likely split time with Mauer in 2014, is now a potential starter. The opening day roster currently looks something like this:

C: Josmil Pinto / Kurt Suzuki

1B: Joe Mauer

2B: Brian Dozier

SS: Pedro Florimon

3B: Trevor Plouffe

LF: Josh Willingham

CF: Alex Presley

RF: Oswaldo Arcia

DH: Jason Kubel

Bench:

Pinto / Suzuki, Eduardo Escobar (INF), Parmelee/Colabello (1B/OF),

That’s a thin bench and a bit of a thin roster. Even if you assume that Miguel Sano will be in Minneapolis by July the roster does little to improve (My projected July lineup would look like this):

C: Pinto

1B: Mauer

2B: Dozier

SS: Florimon

3B: Sano

LF: Arcia

CF: Hicks

RF: Plouffe

DH: Willingham

Bench: Suzuki, Parmelee, Presley, Escobar, Kubel

Better depth, but still missing one more bat before I can really feel confident in this offense. The problem the Twins will face (if you can call it that) is that they have a deluge of talent making its way to the big leagues in the next year to two years. By 2015, Byron Buxton will take over in CF and Eddie Rosario could be manning LF with Aaron Hicks in RF and Oswaldo Arcia DH-ing.

2015 Projected Lineup:

C: Pinto

1B: Mauer

2B: Dozier

SS: Florimon / Santana

3B: Sano

LF: Rosario

CF: Buxton

RF: Hicks

DH: Arcia

Bench: Suzuki / Fryer, Florimon, Plouffe, Presley

If EVERYTHING breaks in the Twins’ favor, their lineup in 2015 will be stacked with young talent. That makes free agent acquisition for the here and now tough to do. You can’t go out and sign a bit bat like Nelson Cruz because he’ll be a large (potentially unnecessary) contract in as little as one year. Instead, the Twins should look to the lesser known free agents and pluck up a super utility player to bolster their bench.

Who, you ask? Well, someone like Roger Bernadina, Sam Fuld or Brennan Boesch. I’ll grant you, none of those names will excite the fan base, but they’ll add a bit of much needed depth to the Twins bench. Adding Fuld, who can play all 3 outfield positions, gives the Twins more roster flexibility for 2014, but wouldn’t clog up the roster for 2015 (or even midseason 2014, if the free agent fails to deliver).

Of that crew, I’d shoot for Bernadina – who had a down year in 2013, but has the potential for base stealing and has posted respectable OBP over his career. At worst, he’s a pinch running, base stealer who can fill in defensively (Mastroianni’s role) at best, he’s viable 4^th outfielder who can give the starters a day off during the week.

From my perspective, the Twins do have a little more shopping to do. They would do well by adding one more free agent starting pitcher and would be wise to look for outfield / utility player depth to help Ron Gardenhire’s bench a little more. The Twins have done a lot of shopping for the 2014 season, and they’re likely to improve because of them – but with two more additions, this team could COMPETE in 2014. Now, wouldn’t that be fun?

Twins Back In On Garza?

Recently, ESPN 1500’s Darren Wolfson reported that the Twins had returned to free agent pitcher Matt Garza and were once again “kicking the tires” on the former Twin prospect. This came as quite a surprise as reports had Garza’s value climbing into the 5 year, $80-$85M range, a price that (theoretically) forced the Twins out of the conversation.

Wolfson says the sticking point for the Twins is length. They’re willing to pay Garza top dollar, but they’re apparently hesitant to pony up top dollar over a five year contract. The Twins prefer Garza over free agents Ubaldo Jimenez and Ervin Santana because Garza does not have draft pick compensation attached to him (meaning he would not cost the Twins their second round pick if signed, like the aforementioned would).

Recent speculation is that Garza’s value (and suitors) has dropped due to the posting of Japanese ace Mashario Tanaka. Teams that were big on Garza (New York, Boston, Arizona) have shifted their priority to Tanaka, leaving Garza and the other top free agents (Arroyo, Jimenez, Santana) to sit and wait until the Tanaka sweepstakes end. If this is the case, it’s a brilliant play by the Twins to make a push right now.

Terry Ryan and the Twins can offer Garza a 3 year deal, with a vesting 4^th year (if incentives are hit) at a bit higher AAV than expected (say, $16M per year) and can sell this contract as a guarantee. Who knows how the market will shake out after Tanaka is posted? Say the Yankees sign Tanaka; that takes them out of the running for the other free agents; thereby lowering the price all around (agents cannot use the Yankee’s seemingly endless budget to inflate the price of their guys). With other top line starters out there, who knows what pitcher will be the last man standing when the signings are all done? Take 3 years, $48M now and don’t worry about finding a home before spring training. It’s a brilliant play by Terry Ryan and the Twins front office and it’s one that I hope works out.

Fans tend to think of Garza as an ace type player, but his numbers really point to a solid #2 starter on most staffs. Over the past four seasons, Garza has posted a WAR of 3.2, 2.9, 1.6, 4.9, 1.1 while throwing for 184, 203, 204, 198 and 101 innings. His xFIP averages 3.92 and his FIP (4 year average of 3.97) shows that he’s been consistent and that his numbers are not influenced too heavily by luck.  He’s not in the class of Kershaw, Hernandez, Verlander, but he is certainly not a bad player either.

Let’s say the Twins do sign Garza and let’s also assume that the team wants to keep one of the Diamond, Albers, Worley trio to be the team’s 5^th starter (all three are out of options and would have to be exposed to waivers if they were removed from the 25 man roster). That creates a bit of a logjam at the starting pitcher position (never thought you’d hear that about a Twins team, right?)

With Garza, the projected 2014 starting staff would be:

1.       Garza

2.       Nolasco

3.       Hughes

4.       Pelfrey

5.       Diamond / Worley / Albers

6.       Correia

Not to mention Alex Meyer will be big league ready by June or July (if not earlier). That’s potentially 7 guys vying for 5 spots.

The Diamond / Worley / Albers (throw in Deduno if you’d like) issue doesn’t worry me. Let the best one win a spot out of spring training and if they cannot cut it, replace them with Alex Meyer. Corriea’s spot is actually easily solvable as well. With his relatively cheap contract and consistent performance, the Twins shouldn’t struggle to flip Correia to another team to further bolster their own roster. In fact, I think the Twins could package an extra bat (Parmelee, Colabello) with Correia to pick up a better piece for the team.

A cursory glance over the rest of MLB has placed the Orioles on my radar as the perfect trade target. They need one more reliable starter for their rotation and they have always been looking for a DH / bench bat to help out their offense. The Twins have those pieces to spare, and are looking for starting pitching depth (the Orioles have that in the minor leagues) or starting shortstop…maybe one like the Twins traded away a few years ago (Okay, maybe THE one the Twins traded away a few years ago). Yes, JJ Hardy.

The Twins would likely have to kick in one more player to get the Orioles to agree to trade Hardy, but luckily the Orioles are searching for a closer to fill in for Jim Johnson (after the Grant Balfour deal fell apart). Can I interest you in Caleb Theilbar, Brian Duensing, Jared Burton or Ryan Pressly?

My hypothetical trade would be as follows:

Orioles acquire:

Kevin Correia

Chris Parmelee

Jared Burton

Twins acquire:

JJ Hardy

The O’s get a starter, a bench / DH bat (who should hit well in Camden Yards) and a bullpen arm that could easily convert to a closer. While the Twins get a shortstop with some pop in his bat – simply by clearing out some extra parts.

In short, I’m glad to hear the Twins are back in on Matt Garza as I think it will not only help the rotation become even more competitive, but it will likely force the Twins to make additional moves to improve the club. (I’m salivating over a 2014 lineup featuring Hardy)

CF: Alex Presley

2B: Brian Dozier

1B: Joe Mauer

LF: Josh Willingham

C: Josmil Pinto

RF: Oswaldo Arica 

SS: JJ Hardy

3B: Miguel Sano 

DH: Trevor Plouffe

That looks like a lot of fun (and a lot of power). Here’s hoping we see it happen in 2014.

Rumor Recap

The 2013 Major League Baseball winter meetings are drawing to a close, and so far the Minnesota Twins have been relatively quiet, going without a signing or trade as of this morning. That doesn’t mean they’ve been inactive, however, actually the opposite is quite true.

For the first time I can remember, the Twins have been attached to a multitude of players, including big name free agent pitchers and even a few major position players. Even after handing out the two largest contracts in franchise history to Ricky Nolasco and Phil Hughes, it appears the Twins are still shopping and intend to spend a little more money this offseason. Who have they been connected to and what other rumors surround the team? Let’s recap:

Matt Garza:

Throughout the week, Matt Garza and the Twins have frequently been mentioned in the same sentence. Darren Wolfson of ESPN 1500 has reported all week that the Twins and Matt Garza’s agents have been in contact and that the Twins “Know his price” and that Garza would welcome a return to Minnesota.

Multiple reporters, including Jon Heyman of CBS Sports have shared that Garza could be looking at a 5 year contract in the $80M range. Earlier reports had Garza coming in at a much more reasonable 4 yr / $60M – which would explain the Twins’ interest. However, at 5 years and $80M (or more) I don’t see the Twins being the final team standing.

Bronson Arroyo / Mike Pelfrey

I’m going to combine Arroyo and Pelfrey because I believe they’re entirely dependent on each other. The signing of one effectively removes the other from consideration.

The Twins’ interest in Arroyo has been long documented this offseason with Minnesota being linked amongst the Mets, Reds, Giants and Pirates as interested suitors. Reports are that Arroyo is looking for a 3 year deal, with an average annual value (AAV) between $10M to $12M.

The market for Mike Pelfrey, however, has been much less exciting. In fact, as far as I can tell, the Twins have been the only team linked to the pursuit of Pelfrey so far this offseason. The Twins initially offered Pelfrey a 2 year, $10M deal, which he and agent Scott Boras reportedly shot down. Yesterday afternoon, it was reported (by LaVelle Neal III and others) that the Twins had increased their offer to 2 years, $12M.

Recently, the Pirates and Reds have been counted out of the Arroyo race and the Mets have distanced themselves from the 37 year old righty as well. The Twins are one of the last teams standing and I think they’re likely to sign him by the end of the week. If they don’t they have a contingency plan in Mike Pelfrey. I don’t imagine the Twins are going to let Mike Pelfrey determine their free agent pitching pursuits (I.E. he’ll only be signed when they’ve lost out on their other options). With the Twins’ interest in Arroyo being well documented and other suitors dropping out, I think it’s just a matter of “When” not “If” the Twins ink Arroyo to a contract.

Masahiro Tanaka

The Rakuten Golden Eagles ace is widely considered to be the best free agent pitcher available this offseason – there’s just the matter if he’s actually available or not to sort out. The Golden Eagles have debated all offseason about their willingness to post their star pitcher, largely deterred by the new international posting rules agree upon by MLB and the NPB. The rules, in short, set the posting fee for any international free agent at a $20M cap – which greatly hurts the potential windfall for international teams holding a hot commodity (prior to the new rules, Tanaka was expected to command a posting fee upwards of $50M). The benefit of these new rules is that any and all teams that post the required fee are then granted the ability to negotiate with the player. IN the past, only the highest bidder had the privilege. Now, simply by posting the fee, teams can get a shot at the market.

If/When the Golden Eagles decide to post Tanaka, the Twins have been listed among the (many) teams willing to post up the $20M to negotiate with the star pitcher. His final cost could approach $18M-$20M per season, and it’s hard to see the Twins giving up that much money for a unknown quantity, but the fact that the Twins have continuously been listed as potential suitors tells me we can never fully write them off.

Stephen Drew

The biggest surprise (so far) of these winter meetings has been the Twins connection to free agent shortstop Stephen Drew. The former Red Sox shortstop has battled through injuries over the past three seasons, but still has managed to put up respectable offensive numbers while player plus level defense. He was extended a qualifying offer by the Red Sox, so any team signing Drew would have to give up a draft pick (the Twins’ first round draft pick is in the top 10, and thereby protected, so signing Drew would cost them their second round pick).

Drew would be an immediate upgrade to the Twins offense and would provide similar defense to that of Pedro Florimon. His rumored price has been hard to target, but initial reports are hovering around $10M-$15M. The higher number would likely count the Twins out, but it’s possible that the draft pick cost tied to Drew could keep his market somewhat tempered and thereby allow the Twins to swoop in with a solid contract offer. There’s been little in the way of updates regarding Drew, but don’t count him out until his price starts to go up or he officially signs elsewhere.

Rule 5 Results:

The Twins entered Thursday’s Rule 5 draft with a full roster, so they were unable to participate, but they did have a stable of minor league players who were eligible to be drafted by other teams, including former first rounder Alex Wimmers and reliever AJ Achter.

The draft concluded in a scant 10 minutes, and the Twins were fortunate enough not to lose any players to other teams. The minor league portion of the draft followed shortly thereafter and the Twins were more active – selecting RHP Kevin Thomas from the Cardinals and LHP James Fuller from the Mets. They lost RHP John Velazquez (who had JUST signed with the team) to the Mets and RHP Tim Atherton to the Athletics.

Thomas and Fuller are hard throwing, strikeout relievers, but both are 27 and have yet to make their major league debuts – essentially, they’re good roster filler for Rochester (who should field a pretty good team with the likes of Miguel Sano, Eddie Rosario, Josmil Pinto and Byron Buxton possibly making appearances there this season). Velazquez was just signed from the independent league, so the Twins don’t have a history with him and Atherton was a 24 year old career minor leaguer who didn’t project to crack the big league roster. All in all, nothing too exciting from the minor league portion of the rule 5 draft.

Twins Go Black Friday Shopping

The Minnesota Twins took a page out of American Thanksgiving culture and gorged themselves over the holiday weekend – not on turkey and the trimmings, but on free agent pitching. The Twins gorging, however, is likely to make them better in the coming season (whereas, America’s gorging will likely not have the same result).

The weekend started Wednesday night when the news leaked that the Twins would be signing Ricky Nolasco to a 4 year, $49 million deal. The move easily surpassed the highest free agent contract ever offered by the Twins (3 years, $21 million to Josh Willingham in 2011) and immediately gave them their ace for 2014.

The Twins, apparently, weren’t done there. A few hours after the signing was announced, baseball media members began reporting that the Twins were now focused on free agent pitcher Phil Hughes, and that a deal could be coming “soon”.

Sure enough, Saturday night brought the announcement that the Twins had inked Phil Hughes to a 3 year, $24 million deal. Hughes’ contract ranks second all time in Twins free agent signings (obviously behind Nolasco) and shows that the team is taking a completely different approach to rebuilding than they have at any other time in their history.

Now, the same baseball scribes who predicted the impending Hughes deal have been reporting that the Twins are moving in fast on free agent catcher AJ Pierzynski. As of Monday morning, nothing has been signed, but I wouldn’t be shocked if AJ was back in Minnesota by the middle of this week. The Twins are also (reportedly) still pursuing Bronson Arroyo and have a contract offer out to Mike Pelfrey as well.

So, how have the Twins done so far? Pretty well, if you look at the advanced numbers.

In Nolasco, the Twins picked up a durable right hander who will be turning 31 in a couple of weeks. He features a repertoire of fastball (90 mph), slider, curveball and spilt finger (80 mph, which acts a lot like a change up). Nolasco’s numbers don’t scream “ace” and it would be foolish for fans to think of him as the Twins version of Justin Verlander or Clayton Kershaw. What his numbers do say, however, is consistency. For his career, Nolasco has averaged 7.4 K/9 while limiting BB/9 to 2.1. Nolasco has never posted an ERA below 4.00 over the past 4 seasons, but his FIP (fielding independent pitching, which removes a pitcher’s defense – for better or worse – to get to a more realistic ERA range) has been consistently in the 3.5 range, indicating his ERA may be inflated by some less than stellar defensive performances. 

Nolasco is a groundball pitcher (1.32 GB/FB) but he has been victimized letting runners on base. For his career, Nolasco has a LOB% (left on base) of 69%, which is below league average. If the Twins can fix whatever ails Nolasco when a runner gets on – they may be able to get his ERA to start matching his FIP.

The biggest part of this contract was the price, while some have squirmed at the $12M / year deal, when you compare what Nolasco is (a slightly above league average, dependable starter who will get you close to 200 innings each year) the $12M per year price is actually quite fair. Over the past two seasons, Ryan Dempster (who has been below average) and Ryan Vogelsong (league average) have inked similar deals. For the consistency he delivers, 4 years $49M is a great deal for the Twins.

If you don’t look at advance stats or splits, you may be a bit confused at the Twins signing Phil Hughes. After all, his 5.19 ERA and 4.54 FIP don’t really scream “improvement” from the Twins below average staff of 2013. 

Remember, however, that Phil Hughes had the misfortune of pitching in that launchpad called Yankee Stadium – for a fly ball pitcher (63.3% career FB rate) that can become ugly awfully quick. The ale becomes apparent when you compare Hughes’ home / road splits. At home, Hughes posted an ugly 6.32 ERA (78.1 IP) with 17 HRs allowed. On the road, however, Hughes’ ERA fell to a respectable 3.88 ERA (67.1 IP) with only 7 HRs allowed. Take him out of Yankee stadium and he becomes a league average pitcher.

Hughes will be 27 on opening day, and the Twins will have him for his 27, 28, 29 year old seasons – that’s widely regarded as the peak for most pitchers. At a modest $8 million / year, Hughes has the potential to be a steal for the Twins, should his numbers improve at Target Field like many expect.

After the holiday, the Twins have spent $73 million for two pitchers, neither of whom profiles to be an ace. Yet, these deals are still successes for the Twins simply for what they DID get. They got consistency, in Nolasco. They got 200 innings (or darn close to it), above average strikeout numbers and solid FIP. In Hughes, they acquired potential – all signs point to him being an average to slightly above average starter when removed from Yankee Stadium. In a neutral park, (hitter / pitcher balanced) Hughes should be league average. Target Field is a pitcher’s park – which bodes well for a bounce back for Hughes.

As I mentioned before, this spending spree was completely unforeseen by everyone. The Twins typically don’t spend big money of free agents, and they don’t fix their glaring issues through free agency. It’s apparent, however, that Terry Ryan has been given a mandate from the owners. Fix this mess – now. What’s brilliant is that (so far) Ryan has done this without mortgaging the future. Nolasco and Hughes’ contracts are manageable, and will not handicap the payroll in the coming seasons (when the young guys arrive) they’re tradable assets (if necessary) and both are young enough to be able to contribute to a contending team featuring Buxton, Sano, Rosario, Meyer and May in just a few years.

My message to the Twins so far this offseason – I love it, but don’t stop there.

So far, the Twins have made the moves the fans have been calling for. They’ve acquired pitching, and they’ve spent some of their large cap space to do so. My hope is that the team doesn’t just say “we’re done” and stop there. With Nolasco and Hughes, the Twins have a respectable starting staff. They can notch that staff up to “competitive” with one or two more signings.

I’m glad the team is still connected to Bronson Arroyo (and that his other suitors, the Giants and Mets, have been distancing themselves) Arroyo, while older (37 by opening day) would provide valuable innings (200 each of his last 5 years) and could be a veteran leader on the staff. The Twins are reportedly willing to offer 2 years, while Arroyo would like 3. I’d be willing to go 3 years for Arroyo, at $9 million per year (3, $27M) at $9M, you get an above average pitcher for below market price. If Arroyo is looking for more than $9M/year, I’d only go as high as 2 years, however. There’s common ground to be found there, hopefully the Twins can work it out.

The team also has an offer out of Mike Pelfrey for 2 years, $10 million. I’m a big fan of this offer for Pelfrey, who, one year removed from Tommy John surgery, should be able pitching more like his 2010, 2011 stats  - less like his 1^st half 2013 stats. Pelfrey is reportedly looking for a bit more money out of the deal – but if I’m Terry Ryan, I’m holding strong. 2 years, $10 million. Take it or leave it. I have a hunch that at the end of the day, Pelfrey will take it.

Let’s assume then that the Twins do get Arroyo (3 yrs, $27M) and Peflrey (2 yrs, $10M). That would mean they spent $120 in 4 pitchers this offseason, plus likely $10M/ yr for AJ Pierzynski – so a total expenditure of $130 million for a team that doesn’t spend money. That alone is impressive. But, take a look at the (projected) lineup heading into 2014 with these signings:

Starters:

1.       Ricky Nolasco

2.       Bronson Arroyo

3.       Phil Hughes

4.       Mike Pelfrey

5.       Kevin Correia

Bullpen:

LR: Anthony Swarzak
LR: Brian Duensing
MR: Caled Thielbar
MR: Ryan Pressly  / AJ Achter  / Edgar Ibarra / Kris Johnson
MR: Casey Fien
SU: Jared Burton
CL: Glen Perkins

In the fold: Scott Diamond, Vance Worley, Alex Meyer, Andrew Albers

C: AJ Pierzynski  / Josmil Pinto
1B: Joe Mauer
2B: Brian Dozier
SS: Pedro Florimon
3B: Trevor Plouffe
LF: Oswaldo Arcia
CF: Alex Presley / Aaron Hicks
RF: Chris Parmelee / Darin Mastroianni
DH: Josh Willingham / Ryan Doumit

Bench:  Eduardo Escobar, Mastroianni / Presley, Chris Herrmann,  Ryan Doumit

Note: players separated by (/) are position battles that will be determined in spring training. I believe Aaron Hicks starts 2014 in Rochester (AAA) but could earn the CF job with an improved spring showing.  I think Chris Parmelee needs a strong spring to keep his RF job, otherwise it goes to Mastroianni. Pinto and Pierzynski will split time at catcher, but I wouldn’t be stunned to see Pinto spend half the season in AAA to get more seasoning. That makes Chris Herrmann an ideal bench player, as he can cover corner outfield spots as well as catcher. Look for Parmelee to fill in for Mauer at 1B if Mauer needs a day off.

That’s a good but not great offense as constructed – but let’s assume we actually get seasons from some of those players that failed to deliver last year. Let’s say Dozier’s 2014 matches his 2^nd half of 2013. Let’s say Hicks delivers on all that potential in CF and Plouffe shows his late season batting average surge was not a fluke. Let’s say Parmelee’s eye at the plate returns to 2011 levels, and he stops striking out as often. Finally, assume a healthy Willingham puts up numbers closer to 2012 than 2013. Suddenly, that offense is above average – and with an already good bullpen and league average starting rotation….

I’m not predicting playoffs, merely saying that the changes the Twins have been making are welcome and should make them an interesting team in 2014. (Now, imagine what happens when that lineup is infused with Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton, DJ Hicks, Max Kepler, Eddie Rosario….)

Depth Chart Analysis: C & 1B

There’s a popular phrase in the NFL that goes something like this: “You’re only as good as your back-up quarterback”. The sentiment meaning that a great NFL team can be derailed by an injury to their most important position.

In baseball, this occurrence is less common as there are no “quarterbacks” in a baseball lineup. Any given night, any of the starting nine can put together an offensive (or defensive) performance solid enough to carry a team to victory.

Still, the original sentiment is interesting – you’re only as good as your back-up implies that if a team wants to contend, they need not only have the stars to get them to the World Series, but also the bench depth to help bridge gaps caused by injuries or ineffectiveness.

Of course, with this being a Minnesota Twins focused blog, I had to apply this theory to the Twins roster as it currently stands. We’ll look at the starters and the next players and line, and see if we can find any decencies that the Twins should look to address in the coming offseason. Let’s get started by looking at the “quarterback” of the diamond:

Catcher:

Starter

Joe Mauer 

2013 Stats: (113 Games) .324/.404/.376, .880 OPS, 11 HR, 47 RBI

We’re not even one player in to the depth chart and we’ve already got some controversy brewing. The big debate of the Twins offseason (so far) has been what to do with Joe Mauer. His late season concussion has some fans (myself included) worried about the longevity of Mauer’s career if he’s allowed to catch full time. Catchers take a lot of abuse behind the plate, and concussion symptoms are nothing you want hanging around a player (See: Koskie, Corey & Morneau, Justin).

The popular opinion is that Joe Mauer should shift to 1B fulltime, thus increasing his chances of being in the lineup on a consistent basis. The Twins have stuck to the “Joe wants to be, and will be a catcher” line so far when asked about their intentions with Mauer – but I think deep down they (and Joe) know that he’ll need to change positions sooner rather than later. I think Mauer gets between 70-80 games behind the plate this season, while spending a majority of the other games at 1B. That will allow the team to transition him to 1B fulltime in 2015.

So, for now when we list catchers on the Twins roster – Joe Mauer sits atop the list.

Next In Line

Josmil Pinto

2013 Stats (21 Games) .342/.398/.566, .963 OPS, 4 HR, 12 RBI

Josmil Pinto’s 2013 stat line is the very definition of “small sample size” and Twins fans need look no further than Chris Parmelee’s 2010 September stats to be reminded that late season call-up stats do not indicate future success. With all that being said, I’m still very excited to see what Josmil Pinto can do with a full season at the big league level.

Pinto had been a slow riser through the Twins system; he spent 2006-2011 in the low minors, never rising above A+ Fort Myers. In 2012, something clicked for Pinto and his bat began to heat up. He posted a combined split of .295/.362/.482 between Fort Myers and New Britain. In 2013, Pinto posted a split of .309/.400/.482 before getting called up to Minnesota and posting the respectable numbers listed above.

These past two seasons seem to indicate that Pinto’s figured something out at the plate, making him an offensively viable big leaguer. His defense has always been the question mark – with his slow footwork being listed as the largest detraction from his game.

Pinto is young enough to learn good defense from the Twins coaches, so that doesn’t concern me too much right now. I’m more interested to see how his bat will play in spring training. A strong performance there will likely earn him a spot on the Twins opening day roster – which means he’d likely split games with Mauer behind the plate (and maybe even DH on occasion).

The Twins have a deep farm system with some very impressive names on the verge of the big leagues. It’s always a wonderful surprise when a player that had been overlooked (like Pinto) bursts onto the scene and makes as much of an impact as some of the bigger names are expected to make. His emergence, if true, greatly helps the Twins going forward.

Also In Consideration:

Chris Herrmann

-          Coming into 2013, Herrmann looked to be the ‘next in line’ for the catcher job if Mauer were to go down for a long period of time. Defensively, he holds his own quite well but offensively he’s swung a fairly weak and inconsistent bat. Josmil Pinto’s strong September basically guaranteed that Herrmann will see more time in the outfield than behind the plate next season– but I think that versatility will help Herrmann stick around as a utility player. He can provide that coveted “emergency catcher” coverage that Ron Gardenhire enjoys while also being a solid defensive replacement in the outfield. He may not catch too many games, but if Mauer & Pinto go down next season (eek!) he’d be the next man up.

Ryan Doumit

-          Doumit makes this list only because he used to catch and I suppose, if the Twins were absolutely desperate (Mauer, Pinto AND Herrmann get in a car accident or lost in an airport) they could put him behind the plate. Defensively, Doumit is a nightmare behind the plate, frequently ranking at or near the bottom in defensive efficiency and pitch framing among all big league catchers. His bat is his only contribution, and while it’s solid, it’s not good enough to override his poor defense. Doumit is a DH now and should never make an appearance behind the plate again for the Twins.

Overall Grade: Even if Mauer isn’t listed at catcher anymore, the depth of Pinto / Herrmann is solid enough to earn the Twins a “B” ranking at catcher. With Mauer topping the depth chart, that ranking bumps up to an “A”.

1^st Base:

Starter

Good Question

With the trade of Justin Morneau, the Twins have opened up a spot in their infield that has yet to be claimed. Chris Colabello and Chris Parmelee split time manning 1B to finish out the season, but neither one hit well enough to be named the outright starter.

This spot could easily be Joe Mauer’s or, perhaps the Twins will sign a veteran slugger to man first in a “timeshare” situation with Mauer. The Twins could also shift Trevor Plouffe to 1B fulltime once Miguel Sano is promoted to the big leagues.

The problem is there simply isn’t much in the way of quality players that the Twins can state with authority “This is our first baseman heading into 2014”. They have contenders in Parmelee, Colabello, Plouffe and a veteran free agent  as well as players like Kennys Vargas and Travis Harrison in the minors who look to be first basemen in training – but there’s no one immediately here to help. Clearly this is a position the Twins will need to find a solution for in the offseason and during spring training.

Overall Grade: Simply because Mauer “might” be playing 1B in 2014, I’ll give the Twins a “D” here on the potential. Without Mauer, this is easily an “F”.

I’m going to break these depth evaluations down into parts so they’re easier to read. We’ll stop at C / 1B today. I’ll put up my overview of 2B / SS / 3B on Monday and the evaluations of LF / CF / RF on Tuesday.