The 2013 Twins Will Be Better Than The 2012 Twins

Alright Twins fans, it’s time we sit down and have a talk. Lately, the pulse of Twins territory has been in a state of panic and despair. The offseason signings of Kevin Correia and Mike Pelfrey dubbed as foolish moves that only indicate a sinking ship in Minnesota.

"We’re terrible, awful, and no good!"; "This will be the worst Twins team since 1961!" (Did you even WATCH the Twins teams of the early 80’s? This team would beat them 9 out of 10 times) the fans are crying foul – "Terry Ryan is a fool", "The Pohlads are cheap!"

Slow down just for a minute. Let’s step back and really analyze these moves.

The Twins sign Kevin Correia – alright, I’ll give you this one. Outside of Nick Blackburn, Kevin Correia has been one of the worst starters in the majors for the past few seasons. Factor in the move to the AL and the unbelievably foolish 2 year contract and this signing looks to be a baffling move. There’s reason for hope here, I’ll get to that in a minute.


The Twins sign Mike Pelfrey – another underwhelming signing on the surface, but I actually like this move. Pelfrey is coming off of Tommy John surgery, but will reportedly be ready for Spring Training and will be good to go on opening day. Pelfrey is essentially a .500 W/L career pitcher with a 4.36 career ERA, not a staff ace, but not a bad signing. Again, I’ll expand on that in a minute.


The Twins trade Denard Span to Washington for top prospect Alex Meyer and Ben Revere to Philadelphia for Vance Worley and Trevor May. The Twins moved from a position of strength – OF – to fill a position of need – pitching. They got a strong return for Revere in a capable #3 pitcher (Vance Worley) and a potential #2 starter, Trevor May. Span, admittedly, may have gotten less of a return than deserved, but Alex Meyer projects to be an ace, if these projections hold true, 2014 will look very good with a true #1 starter on top of the list.

From the outside, things look bad. The Twins have traded away two great outfielders for one 2013 pitching chip and two future chips. They’ve only managed to sign lower tier free agents, while Brandon McCarthy, Anibal Sanchez and Joe Blanton sign elsewhere. Who is playing CF? How will this staff be BETTER than last year if we’re signing a bunch of #5 starters? WHY ISN’T THIS TEAM TRYING TO COMPETE!?? All valid questions from (rightly) angry Twins fans – but I feel like fans aren’t taking a step back to answer their own questions. If they were to do that, they’d see quite a bit different picture.

Why The 2013 Twins Will Be Better Than The 2012 Twins

The pitching staff, evenly as presently constructed, is leaps and bounds better than the 2012 rotation.

Let’s look at the 2012 opening day rotation:

Carl Pavano

Anthony Swarzak

Francisco Liriano

Nick Blackburn

Liam Hendriks

Jason Marquis

Hendriks started the season with food poisoning, Pavano was pitching with an injury, as was Blackburn. Liriano was completely awful and Scott Baker was already on the DL and on his way to TJ surgery. Let’s dive into the numbers a little more.

Carl Pavano (First 5 games)

Vs / Result

Innings Pitched

Hits

Runs

Strikeouts

Baltimore / L

7.0

5

4

1

LA Angels / W

6.2

7

5

3

NY Yankees / W

7.0

7

3

6

Tampa Bay / L

6.0

7

3

7

Kansas City / L

6.1

6

4

0

Pavano actually started 2012 right where the Twins wanted him. During outings against LA, NY and TB, Pavano looked every bit the workhorse ‘ace’ the staff needed. He went deep into games, limited the number of runs allowed and struck batters out. After that, however, things took a bad turn for Pavano.

Carl Pavano (Next 5 games)

VS / Result

Innings Pitched

Hits

Runs

Strikeouts

Seattle / W

6.0

8

2

2

LA Angels / L

4.0

10

4

1

Cleveland / L

6.0

6

4

3

Milwaukee / W

6.0

5

2

6

Detroit / L

4.1

10

6

2

You can see where Pavano’s bruised humorous bone developed – right around the Kansas City & Seattle series. After that, he simply didn’t have command and was getting knocked all over the field. He was lasting deep into games, was wearing out the bullpen and simply wasn’t getting it done. Remember, Pavano was the ACE of the staff at the start of the 2012 season. It only gets worse from here.

Nick Blackburn (First 5 starts)

VS / Result

Innings Pitched

Hits

Runs

Strikeouts

LA Angels / L

6.0

5

5

3

Texas / L

5.1

7

2

3

Boston / L

3.0

8

5

2

LA Angels / L

6.0

7

3

2

Seattle / L

6.0

7

5

4

Blackburn’s struggles were immediate and apparent. He couldn’t find the strike zone, and when he did, he left the ball up. The result was an immediate and frequent shelling. He never lasted beyond the 6^th inning, meaning more work for the bullpen, and he averaged 1 ER per inning, putting the team in a hole each time he started. I don’t need to go into the next 5 for Blackburn. Each and every start (except 1 in July against the White Sox) looks exactly the same. No more than 6 innings, an average of 1 ER per inning and no strikeouts.

Jason Marquis (First 5 games)

VS / Result

Innings Pitched

Hits

Runs

Strikeouts

NY Yankees / W

5.0

7

4

3

Boston / L

6.1

11

5

3

Kansas City / W

6.0

6

3

1

Seattle / L

6.0

4

2

1

Toronto / L

4.0

7

5

2

All things considered, Marquis’ first 5 games were not all that bad. He wasn’t great, but 6 innings, an average of 4 runs – he was filling the "back-end" starter role decently. With early season starts, you always expect the numbers to be little poor – then improve as the year goes on. Then…well…this happened

Jason Marquis (Next 5 games)

VS / Result

Innings Pitched

Hits

Runs

Strikeouts

Cleveland / L

5.0

9

5

2

Milwaukee / L

1.2

8

8

2

Seattle / W

6.1

6

0

4

Texas / L

7.0

5

2

10

Seattle / L

7.0

6

5

6

Hey, after that Milwaukee start, he started to get back on track! One problem, those starts after Milwaukee were with the Padres. The Twins cut him loose after his horrendous outing on the road.

There are other examples – Liam Hendriks struggled in 2012, Cole DeVries, PJ Walters, Samuel Deduno were far from great as well. But, let’s just say the Twins 3 acquisitions this offseason are replacing those 3 pitchers listed above.

Kevin Correia, despite being almost as bad as Blackburn (numbers wise) throughout his career, is still a .500 W/L pitcher with bad teams (Pittsburgh) and has managed to keep his ERA around 4.00. As hard as it is to fathom, that is actually an improvement from any of the above pitchers in 2012.

Mike Pelfrey, again, is a career .500 W/L pitcher posting an ERA around 4.30. He pitched through an injury with a bad Mets team last season and still managed a 7-13 record. In 2011, Pelfrey was a solid 15-9 with an ERA of 3.66.

Finally, Vance Worley, who is coming off a poor 2012 (6-9, 4.22 ERA) had surgery to clean up some bone chips in his elbow (likely the cause of his poor year) will likely return to the 11-3 pitcher who posted an ERA of 3.01 in 2011. It’s not farfetched for the Twins to expect Scott Diamond like numbers from Worley this season.

By plucking out Blackburn, Pavano and Marquis and replacing them with Correia, Pelfrey and Worley, the Twins HAVE improved. Even if Correia posts an 8-11 record with an ERA of 4.45, he’s still better than Blackburn, Marquis or Liriano where at any point in time last season.

Pelfrey could reaslitically be a 10-7 pitcher with an ERA of 4.00, again, better than Blackaburn, Pavano, Liriano, Marquis, Hendriks and any of the minor league starters the team rolled out in ’12.

Worley, despite not having the same caliber offense behind him as he did during an 11 win 2011 – will still be solid enough to host a 12-6 W/L with an ERA around 3.50.

Collectively, these pitchers improve the staff form 2012 by – let’s say 3 wins each – and that’s being conservative. That’s 9 more wins.

Liam Hendriks is primed to make a turnaround in 2013. By the end of 2012, Hendriks was looking a lot more confident on the mound and was not getting blown up like he had been early in the season. Lest we forget – Scott Diamond, 2012’s "A Student" was knocked around like he was pitching a beach ball in 2011. Hendriks has the talent to be a #3 or #4 starter, I’d be stunned if his 2013 didn’t look a lot like Scott Diamond’s 2012. I could see Hendriks going 12-7 with an ERA at or around 3.50.

Kyle Gibson will likely start 2013 in the bullpen, but I wouldn’t be stunned to see him in the rotation by June. He’s still relatively young, so the likelihood that he posts a few bad starts is high, but he’s got raw talent. I’d project Gibson to go 5-7 with an ERA of 4 in his first season.

Finally, Scott Diamond will be back as the "ace" of the staff. Diamond’s 2012 numbers were a result of him showing great command and keeping the ball down in the zone. Nothing we’ve seen from Diamond so far would indicate that this was a fluke. Diamond, given a full season of starting, could easily put up a 14-9 W/L with an era around 3.20.

This speculative rotation would look like this by year’s end:

Scott Diamond: 14-9, 3.20 ERA

Vance Worley: 12-6, 3.50 ERA

Liam Hendriks: 12-7, 3.50 ERA

Mike Pelfrey: 10-7, 4.00 ERA

Kevin Correia: 8-11, 4.50 ERA

Kyle Gibson: 5-8, 4.00 ERA

Is that a playoff staff? Certainly not. But, it is a staff that could anchor a 75-80 win ball club. Fans are quick to forget just how horrendous this staff was in 2012. Even though the Twins are not adding Sanchez, McCarthy, Jackson or even Blanton caliber players, they are getting better. Even better, the team now has future aces in their minor league system, meaning that 2014 and 2015 is starting to look like bright spots for the Twins.

We’ve Seen This Before:

This rebuilding strategy should be familiar. We just saw it last season with the Chicago Cubs. The Cubs traded away their valuable pitching chips in the offseason to restock their farm system. They signed veteran players to smaller, reasonable deals to fill out their roster and they cut back payroll significantly. By the deadline, they’d flipped any veterans of value for more prospects, cut loose the veterans who were not cutting it and brought up all of their young players for experience. Yes, they lost 100+ games in 2012, but now look at 2013:

The Cubs have young talent that is now Major League ready. They’re active in the free agent market, spending money that they had saved from the year before on free agents who will make an impact. The team is young, relatively cheap to field and looks to be moving into a prime competitive state for the next few years.

Like it or not, the Twins are in stage one of that rebuilding plan. They’re flipping veterans of value for pieces of need. By the deadline, they’ll likely move Morneau and Willingham, acquiring more pieces for the future. Oswaldo Arcia, Joe Benson, Aaron Hicks, BJ Hermsen and maybe even Eddie Rosario are all likely candidates to get a shot at the big leagues during the later half of next season.

2014 and 2015 – the Twins would have young talent primed to move into key positions (Arcia, Hicks, Benson in the outfield - Rosario, Sano, Parmelee in the infield – May, Meyer, Gibson, Wimmers, Hendriks on the mound) and they would have payroll room to add one or two high impact free agents to improve the club.

In short, the 2013 Twins are not going to be the worst baseball team to ever take the field. They’re not a playoff team either, however. They’re essentially a .500 ball club on the cusp of a youth movement. So, let’s all calm down, these moves make sense given the team’s long term plans. Are they the best for the immediate future? That’s debatable. BUT they are building for a stronger, sustainable future, which is something that all Twins fans should appreciate.

Offseason Moves, Kevin Correia and The Case To Trade Justin

"Wait for the big fish to sign, then the stove will really get cooking" That’s been the line touted by many of baseball’s best writers over the past few weeks. Monday saw the biggest chip, Zack Greinke, sign with the Dodgers followed shortly by the signings of Ryan Dempster (Red Sox), Josh Hamilton (Angels) and Anibal Sanchez (Tigers).

The Twins, as predicted, were not in on any of these players despite the fact they had the payroll to be at least involved in the discussions. Instead, the Twins signed Kevin Correia, a pitcher with a career 4.84 ERA, low strikeout rate, and struggles to keep the ball in the park. The Twins are obviously hoping to catch Correia on an upswing, in 2011, Correia made the All-Star Game with an 11-2 record (he had a much worse 2^nd half – finishing with a 12-11 record).

The Twins have made signings similar to this in the past. The 2010 offseason saw the Twins take a shot at journeyman Carl Pavano, who had posted a career 4.50+ ERA and looked to be completely out of it – only to see him lower his ERA into the low 3.00 range and become an innings eater on a playoff team.

Last season, the Twins attempted the same reclamation project on Jason Marquis. Marquis fell flat on his face, becoming no better than a batter’s tee and posting an 8.00+ ERA.

Correia is the next player in line for the great Twins gamble. Will he end up surprising fans and become a reliable innings eater? Unlikely, as his career numbers point to him simply being a 4 earned run, .500 W/L pitcher. Simply put, he’s back end of the rotation filler and not exactly the player you want to see the Twins sign given their massive rotation deficiency.

Trade Market Developments

The Twins have said that they were likely done in the trade market following the surprising trade of Ben Revere. Then again, they said they were likely done in the trade market after moving Denard Span – and we saw how that changed.

With the Rangers losing out on Mike Napoli, Zack Greinke, Anibal Sanchez and Josh Hamilton, they’re likely becoming a little bit desperate to improve their playoff caliber ball club. They have a large need in their lineup for a left handed power bat and there’s little in the way of free agent impact bats on the market.

It just so happens the Twins have a left handed power bat to fill that void. Justin Morneau, who is entering a walk year, would greatly benefit from playing 81 games in a park that gives plus numbers to lefty batters. The Rangers also have the payroll flexibility to absorb most of Morneau’s $14 million salary.

In exchange, the Rangers could deal from the surplus of middle infielders and trade away Mike Olt. With prospects like Profar ready to hit the majors and talent like Kinsler and Andrus still under team control, Olt becomes an expendable piece for the Rangers. Olt’s best position is 3B, which would likely force Trevor Plouffe into right field (now vacant because Parmelee would be playing 1B). This move would do two things for the Twins 1) continue their youth / rebuilding movement and 2) free up payroll space to sign a free agent pitcher (Edwin Jackson, Shaun Marcum) to a nice one year deal.

All Is Not Lost

Right now, it’s hard to be a Twins fan. It looks like a team that has lost 90+ games for two straight years is well on their way to losing another 90 games in 2013. They team has shipped off talent in Denard Span and Ben Revere and outside of Vance Worley, has received nothing in return that will benefit the team in 2013.

You have to be bold to trade both your starting CF and his heir apparent in today’s outfield starved league. The Twins were bold because they feel they have the next best thing ready to hit the big leagues. Aaron Hicks, by all accounts, is set to takeover as the starting CF out of spring training. This would mean he’d jump straight from AA to the big leagues, but the Twins have not been afraid to make those kind of promotions (Brian Dozier, Chris Parmelee, Joe Mauer) in the past.

Scouts say that Hicks has the plate discipline and bat of Denard Span while holding the defensive range and speed of Ben Revere. Even better, Hicks has an absolute cannon for an arm, meaning his defensive presence is that much more a threat than Revere or Span.

It’s entirely possible that Hicks takes over CF in 2013 and is just as good if not slightly better than both Span and Revere. That being said, even if Hicks posts a WAR of 6 or better the Twins are still a team with many flaws. Hicks being an instant hit means little if the pitching staff isn’t markedly better.

But, as I said, all is not lost on 2013 yet. IF the Twins still have a few moves up their sleeves, be they trades or free agent signings, this team could be a surprise dark horse. For instance, assuming the Morneau trade happens, the Twins could foreseeable field a team such as:

C: Mauer
1B: Parmelee
2B: Dozier / Carroll
SS: Florimon / Carroll
3B: Olt
LF: Willingham
CF: Hicks
RF: Plouffe
DH: Doumit

Rotation:

Scott Diamond
Vance Worley
Edwin Jackson (1 Year, $12 Mill.)
Kevin Correia
Kyle Gibson / Liam Hendriks / Cole DeVries

That’s a better team than the 2012 club. In a questionable AL Central, that’s a scrappy enough team to make things interesting. Time will tell what the Twins are doing for 2013 – but the hot stove is heating up and if the team is being honest about competing in 2013, now is the time to make moves.

Twins Acquire Two In Rule 5 Draft

Lost in all the commotion of the Ben Revere trade on Thursday was the Rule 5 draft.

Known for famously gaining teams players such as Johan Santana, Josh Hamilton and most recently for the Twins, Scott Diamond, the Rule 5 draft is typically hyped as a quick way for teams to make improvements to their roster. More realistically, the Rule 5 draft is slightly overhyped, with many of the players acquired never amounting to much and being returned to their original teams. Last season’s Rule 5 draft pick up, Terry Doyle, flamed out in spring training and now pitches in Japan. (There are a lot more Doyles than Santanas).

The Twins made two selections in Thursday’s draft, acquiring right handed reliever Ryan Pressley from the Red Sox with the 4^th overall pick and then grabbing 3B Mark Sobolewski in the minor league portion of the draft.

Pressley, who is just turning 24, posted a 2.93 ERA in 27 2/3 innings of double A ball for the Red Sox in 2012. Prior to 2012, Pressley was being groomed to be a starter, but struggled in his starts as the game wore one. Boston adjusted by moving Pressley to the bullpen and promoting him a level. He saw his ERA drop from 6.28 to 2.93 and also picked up velocity on his fastball and more bite on his curve.

Pressley is required to stay on the 25 man active roster for the Twins, meaning if he can continue to show solid control and the ability to strike batters out, he’ll likely be a middle relief option for the club in 2013. Of course, there’s always the chance that he simply isn’t ready for Major League action and won’t pan out, in which case the Twins would be required to offer him back to the Red Sox.

Right now, Pressley has the potential to be another savvy Terry Ryan pickup (akin to Jared Burton last season) that could bolster the Twins already decent bullpen.

The most interesting aspect of this year’s draft is the acquisition of 3B Mark Sobolewski. Sobolewski was at the AAA level for the Blue Jays at the end of 2012. He was named the best defensive catcher in AA in 2012 and hit a respectable .260 with decent pop at the AA level. His AAA numbers were not as strong, but over only 80 plate appearances those struggles could be attributed to a lack of sample size.

The Twins have said they want to motivate Trevor Plouffe by having another option at 3B this season. Originally, the drafting of Sobolewski looked like a roster depth move, but shortly after they acquired the 3B from Toronto, they reportedly backed out of the Jack Harahan talks, giving an honest look at their intentions for the hot corner in 2012.

Sobolewski’s defense was likely the big attraction for the Twins. Even if Plouffe were to safely regain the fulltime starting 3B job, the Twins would likely keep Sobolewski on the bench as a defensive replacement late in games. His presence would also allow the team to DH Plouffe, keeping his strong bat in the lineup, while putting Sobolewski at third to improve the infield defense.

It will be interesting to see Sobolewski this spring. A strong outing from him may make the Twins infield a lot deeper – something they’ve been sorely missing for the past two years.

Twins Trade Revere, Build Up Young Arms

You’ll have to forgive me for being a day late but I needed some time to compose myself.

Yesterday morning, the Twins dropped a bombshell on the winter meetings by trading fan favorite Ben Revere to the Phillies for left hander Vance Worley and the Phillies’ #2 prospect, Trevor May. This trade was a true stunner in that Ben Revere’s name had not been firmly connected to any trade and it was widely assumed that the Twins would stand pat with their outfielders after shipping off Denard Span to Washington one week earlier.

From a pure trade standpoint, this move was a brilliant swap for the Twins. They exchange Revere, who is a young (24), contact hitter with speed and under team control until 2017 for Worley, a young (25) left hander who exhibits solid control, keeps the ball down and generates a decent number of strikeouts (19% - good for someone on the Twins’ staff). The Twins also got Trevor May, a 6’5" hard throwing right hander who projects into another Major League starter. He’s not the future ace that Alex Meyer (acquired for Denard Span) is, but he projects to be a solid #2 starter so long as his control continues to improve.

Losing Ben Revere and his defense is going to hurt the Twins. Early reports are that the team feels confident that Aaron Hicks or Joe Benson are ready to become full time Major League players. In the event that both of them fail, the Twins still have Darin Mastroianni who will be more than a capable replacement.

The Twins exit the winter meetings with a much deeper rotation than they had 4 days ago. Scott Diamond and Vance Worley are great inning eaters who keep the ball down and keep their team in games. They also added a future ace in Alex Meyer and a top of the rotation arm in Trevor May. On Monday, the Twins prospect list included two pitchers – Kyle Gibson and JO Berrios. By Friday, that list expanded to Gibson, Meyer, May and Berrios. Doubling the amount of young arms in a system is never a bad move.

From a fan perspective, this trade is harder to swallow. Ben Revere was one of the more popular players on the team and was one of the few bright spots on an otherwise poor team the past two years.

There’s no denying now that the writing is on the wall for the 2013 Twins. This team was a few reliable arms away from possibly contending in 2013, now, without Span or Revere and a rotation still occupied with 3 empty slots, it’s clear the Twins are rebuilding. 2013 will be another losing season. 2014 and 2015 look like the promising future that fans have been holding out for – but two years is a long time to wait for your team to be competitive once again.

Surprise on the return:

Some fans, myself included, were surprised the Twins managed to get more for Revere than they did for Span. By all accounts, Denard Span is the better player, still under team control and holding a friendly contract. Yet, Span only was ‘worth’ a top pitching prospect while revere was worth a young Major League ready arm AND a top prospect. Did the Twins fleece the Phillies? Not quite – when you look at the offseason as a whole, everything makes a little more sense.

The Giants, Phillies, Braves, Nationals, Orioles and Rays entered the 2012 offseason with needs in the outfield. A plethora of big name free agents (Bourn, Pagan, Hamilton, Upton) were on the market, but their values were extremely high. The first domino to fall was BJ Upton signing with the Braves. The Nationals then pulled themselves out of the market by acquiring Span. The Giants re-upped with Pagan, reducing the market to Hamilton and Bourn, both who were commanding premium prices. With a multitude of teams still in the market for OF help, their prices weren’t likely to come down. The Phillies, faced with either paying a premium for Bourn or Hamilton or paying a little too much for another option in a trade chose the latter route. Yes, they coughed up young pitching talent, but they felt their need for a reliable CF and leadoff hitter was a bigger issue.

What’s Next?

The Revere trade puts the Twins in an interesting place, do they continue to sell pieces off who will not help them compete in 2013 and build for 2014, or do they bank on a revamped rotation in 2013 and make a run? I could see the Twins follow either path – here’s how:

Blow it up:

Josh Willingham, while a popular player and a great offseason acquisition in 2012, will be of no use to a youth infused 2014 Twins ball club. His stock has never been higher after posting career bests for home runs and RBI – the time to move him for pitching is now. As I mentioned above, the market for outfielders is thin and players that will make an impact are in high demand. The Twins should easily be able to move Willingham for another prospect or young Major League ready arm. The Orioles are still looking for a cleanup hitter to fill their DH needs and are willing to part with young Major League ready arms. A Willingham for Chris Tillman swap makes sense for both clubs.

If you move Willingham, then Justin Morneau becomes the next piece that must be moved. Morneau is entering the last year of his deal and likely won’t be brought back in 2014. He’s proven to be ‘back’ from his concussion injuries and has shown flashes of being a potent bat in the lineup. The Rangers, Orioles, Yankees, Angels and A’s are all possible destinations.

Finally, without Willingham or Morneau, the other 2011 offseason acquisition, Ryan Doumit, becomes expendable as well. Solid hitter, defensively flexible and decently paid – Doumit has value.

By flipping Morneau, Doumit and Willingham, the Twins would be instantly throwing in the towel on 2013 (which is why I don’t think all of them will be moved until the trade deadline in July) but it would likely give the Twins a plethora of young arms in the system.

Build It Up:

Just because Span and Revere are gone doesn’t necessarily indicate the folding of the 2013 Twins. As I mentioned earlier, both Aaron Hicks and Joe Benson are believed to be Major League ready. That means the Twins could move yet another bat and still contend in 2013.

For example, the Twins could flip Morneau to the Orioles for Chris Tillman. Then, they would shift Chris Parmelee to 1B, start Hicks in CF and Benson in RF. By signing one more free agent pitcher (Shaun Marcum for example) the Twins would now have the following roster:

C: Joe Mauer
1B: Chris Parmelee
2B: Brian Dozier
SS: Jamey Carroll
3B: Trevor Plouffe
LF: Josh Willingham
CF: Aaron Hicks
RF: Joe Benson
DH: Ryan Doumit

Bench: Pedro Florimon, Darin Mastroianni, FA 3B, Eduardo Escobar

Rotation:

Scott Diamond
Vance Worley
Chris Tillman
Shaun Marcum
Kyle Gibson

That’s not a bad team. Does it have question marks? You bet – young, unproven arms and a middle infield of inexperience – but the offense has pop, and the rotation has depth. Let’s not forget that Liam Hendriks and Cole DeVries are still available as well. Hendriks had a bad 2012 to be sure, but he has raw potential and could realistically bounce back in 2013 like Scott Diamond did in 2012.

　

　

Hot Stove Update

Baseball’s annual winter meetings are entering their second day and the offseason hot stove is beginning to heat up. With their "only" (there’s some skepticism on that front) trade already executed, the Twins are focused in on free agent pitching. With agents and GM’s all meeting in one place, it’s fairly easy to see a team’s plans take shape.

The Twins have been linked as front runners / strong contenders for the following pitchers over the past day and a half:

Brett Meyers
Brandon McCarthy
John Lannan

 

They’ve also been attached to Shaun Marcum, R.A. Dickey (via trade), Francisco Liriano and Brandon Webb.

I’ve maintained for months now that the Twins, who have finished dead last in the AL for two straight years, are not as far off as we might think. In 2011 the story was injuries and an ineffective bullpen. Without any offensive power (Mauer, Span, Morneau were all gone for portions of the season and Kubel missed large chunks of time as well) and a leaky bullpen (Capps struggles were the ‘highlight’) the team simply couldn’t contend. In 2012, the story was starting pitching. The offense was (largely) consistent and the bullpen was much, much better.

I’ve said and I will continue to say that with league average pitching, the Twins could very easily contend for a playoff spot in 2013. Before you scoff, let me state my case. Here is the WAR (Wins above replacement – essentially a stat that shows how many wins a player gained / lost for his team in a given season) of the Twins’ starting pitching in 2012:

Nick Blackburn -2.3 WAR
Carl Pavano - .8 WAR
Liam Hendriks -1.2 WAR
Samuel Deduno .5 WAR
Cole DeVries .2 WAR
Jason Marquis -1.4 WAR
Brian Duensing -1.4 WAR
Anthony Swarzak -.6 WAR
PJ Walters -.6 WAR
Francisco Liriano -.5 WAR

This was the ‘bad’ of the rotation in 2012. (Scott Diamond’s WAR was 2.2) if you throw in the Twins’ worst reliever (Jeff Gray, -.7 WAR) and then tabulate you’ll come up with:

-7.6 WAR (round it up to 8), that means the worst parts of the Twins rotation cost the team 8 games compared to league average pitching (remember, not comparing them against aces, merely ‘average’ pitchers). Now, factor in that most pitchers, so long as they’re reliable, are worth at least .5 to 1 WAR and you can see that the Twins, with slightly better than league average pitching, could improve by as much as 12 wins. That turns last season’s 96 loss team into an 84 loss team.

Playoff bound? Probably not at 84 losses, BUT, you can’t count out momentum and enthusiasm for some games. Towards the end, there’s no denying that the Twins simply quit. Gardenhire stopped playing Morneau, Doumit, Plouffe, Carroll and other starters for large sections of time. You also can’t quantify what starting in such a large hole will do to a team. The first month of the season already saw the Twins in an insurmountable hole behind the division leading Indians and Tigers – essentially putting them out of the race immediately.

Let’s say that a more competitive Twins team has more enthusiasm, drive, x-factor – etc. and they compete in the latter half of the season. This x-factor could be worth as much as 5 to 6 games (best example, the 2012 Orioles. Negative run differential, lackluster offense – but they possessed that "it" factor and managed a playoff run and to tally 93 wins). Let’s say 6 wins are generated from simply being competitive once again. That puts the Twins’ record at 84-78. 88 wins took the AL Central last season and the 85 win White Sox were not out of contention until the very last week of 2012. Simply put, 80+ wins puts the team in contention.

My admittedly long and drawn out point is this: constructing a rotation out of league average pitching would be enough to put the 2013 Twins from bottom of the league to contenders. A rotation consisting of:

Brandon McCarthy
Scott Diamond
John Lannan
Brett Meyers
Kyle Gibson

Could easily propel the Twins to the 80 win mark. After that, who knows what could happen, but at least there’d be a chance.

Interesting Rumor of The Week:

The Orioles are in the market for a big impact bat. Simply put, the team wants someone who can bat 4^th in their lineup, play DH most of the time and help push what was an overall poor offense into something a little more threating. The team is prepared to deal from their strength (pitching) and is willing to take on a big contract.

The supposed target of the Orioles’ trade push is none other than Justin Morneau. Reports have said that a deal is in place, but Baltimore is trying to decide on whether or not to "pull the trigger". The yet unnamed target is a "1B / DH type with a impact bat, supposedly left handed and currently on the roster of a team not thought to contend in 2013" – that sure sounds like the Twins #33…right?

Baltimore does have a nice assortment of young, cheap, talented pitching – something the Twins DESPERATELY need. It will be interesting to see what comes of this (if anything) over the next few days.

Would trading Morneau instantly make the Twins non contenders in 2013? Possibly, but there’s also a chance the team would be better with a trade.

Assuming the Twins have to eat at least half of Justin’s contract, that still clears $7 million in payroll (to be allocated towards a free agent pitcher) and it adds a major league ready starter to the rotation (any of Baltimore’s youngsters would be an instant improvement for the Twins). In addition, it would allow Chris Parmelee to shift to 1B full time and open RF for Oswaldo Arcia or Aaron Hicks (thereby improving the OF defense as well). Let’s assume Chris Tillman is the pitcher acquired in said trade:

Rotation:

Scott Diamond
Chris Tillman
Brett Meyers
John Lannan
Kyle Gibson

Lineup:

C: Mauer
1B: Parmelee
2B: Carroll
SS: Florimon
3B: Plouffe
LF: Willingham
CF: Revere
RF: Arcia / Hicks
DH: Doumit

Bench: Dozier, Mastroianni, Hermann / Butera, TBD

The middle infield would still be a big question mark, but that lineup still packs a punch. With a likely batting order of

Hicks


Revere


Mauer


Willingham


Doumit


Parmelee


Plouffe


Carroll


Florimon

That’s an offense that you would be foolish to underestimate. Combined with a rotation like the one speculated above and you suddenly have a very interesting Twins team next season.

Again, the Morneau trades are nothing more than rumors in the ether right now, but it’s something to certainly keep an eye on.

Twins Trade Span, Acquire Future Ace

How quickly things can change! One day after complaining that the Twins were relatively inactive this offseason they go and pull off one of the bigger moves so far this winter. The Twins traded veteran OF Denard Span for the #2 prospect in the Nationals’ system – Alex Meyer.

This trade initially favors the Nationals as they are getting an extremely talented OF under a reasonable contract for the next three years. Already a power in the NL East, the Nats now have a true leadoff hitter who will add great defense to their OF and can steal bases.

In the long run, it may be the Twins who win this trade, however. Meyer is projected to be a future ace. His fastball tops out at 97 to 98 MPH, he has a vicious slider and a very solid circle change. All of which he deploys to strike out batters at a high clip. Meyer is a power pitcher whose control has been improving with each level he’s been promoted. Meyer will likely start 2013 in AA and assuming he continues to tear through batters like he has been he’ll end 2013 in AAA with 2014 shaping up to be his Major League debut.

Meyer is exactly the player the Twins need in their system, a hard thrower with the potential to be an ace. GM Terry Ryan accurately said "You can’t get high upside guys like this when they’re in AAA and nearly Major League ready" – meaning if the Twins want a potential All Star ace, they’re going to have to be willing to sit on him for a year or two.

That means the 2013 season isn’t looking any better for the Twins, in fact, with the loss of Span, it’s a little worse. But, that does mean that 2014 and beyond is starting to take shape. More on that in a minute, but first, let’s look at how the trade of Span will likely affect the rest of the 2012 offseason.

Trades are likely done – There is a possibility that the Twins could still try to flip Josh Willingham to the Braves for a pitcher and a prospect, but the odds of that have decreased significantly with Span’s trade. Unfortunately, that likely means the Twins are out of the James Shields sweepstakes as the Rays were reportedly only in on a deal with the Twins if it included Span.


Free agents are up – This trade did nothing to fix the 2013 rotation. As we’ve said time and time again, the only pitcher worthy of a spot in 2013 is Scott Diamond. That means the team still has 4 spots to fill via free agency. Let’s assume that the Twins intend to give one spot to Cole DeVries, Samuel Deduno, Liam Hendriks or PJ Walters. Let’s also assume that Kyle Gibson earns a spot in the rotation. That leaves 2 holes to fill via free agency. With the back end of the rotation holding so many questions (Deduno, DeVries, Hendriks & Gibson are all uncertainties) they will likely have to focus on more "sure bet" free agents.

Speculating On The "Plan"

It’s only one trade, but the Twins likely tipped their hand as to their plans for 2013 and 2014. By trading Denard Span for a high upside pitching prospect that won’t be major league ready until 2014, the team has (unofficially) conceded making a push for the division in 2013. Now, they will sign free agents and attempt to at least be competitive, but any dreams fans had of the Twins making a huge run next season have essentially been stalled.

Instead, it’s looking like the Twins will follow this plan:

2013 Starting outfield

:

LF: Josh Willingham, CF: Ben Revere, RF: Chris Parmelee

Look for the Twins to keep much of their staring roster intact. By moving Span, they can put Revere in his natural position and shift Parmelee, who did not have a place to call home last season, to RF. This allows the Twins to keep Morneau at 1B… for now.

Stage 2

: I believe stage 2 of the Twins’ grand plan kicks in at or around the last week of July 2013. The team will likely be ‘out’ of contention (hovering around .500) at this time and other teams will once again be clamoring for power bats to help them reach the playoffs. This is the time for the Twins to strike. Justin Morneau, who will be in the last year of his contract, could be shipped to a contender for an AAA pitcher or two. This would allow Parmelee to move to his natural 1B after the first half of the season and would signal the promotion of either Aaron Hicks or Oswaldo Arcia.

If both Hicks and Arcia are tearing up AAA pitching by July, look for the Twins to shop their OTHER power bat in Josh Willinham, once again for more pitching prospects. This allows Arcia and Hicks to begin building Major League experience for the season that REALLY matters – 2014.

Stage 3

: The third and final stage of the Twins rebuilding plans take shape in 2014; by that time Kyle Gibson will be off any pitch limits, Alex Meyer will be Major League ready as will J.O. Berrios (the hard thrower the Twins drafted in 2012) and Alex Whimmers will be back from Tommy John Surgery and a candidate to slot into the rotation. Factor in the prospects picked up for Willingham and Morneau and the Twins suddenly have a respectable rotation. That’s not all – by 2014, power hitter Miguel Sano is likely to be Major League ready as would Eddie Rosario, the Twins future at 2B. Suddenly, this Twins lineup becomes young and dangerous. Let’s look:

C: Joe Mauer
1B: Chris Parmelee
2B: Eddie Rosario
SS: Pedro Florimon
3B: Miguel Sano
LF: Oswaldo Arcia
CF: Ben Revere
RF: Aaron Hicks
DH: Trevor Plouffe

Bench: Joe Benson, Brian Dozier, Chris Hermann, Darin Mastroianni

Rotation:

Alex Meyer
J.O. Berrios
Kyle Gibson
Scott Diamond
AAA Prospect / Liam Hendriks / Alex Whimmers

Suddenly, the anemic Twins turn into the dominant force in the Central Twins. Young, loaded with power, strike out pitchers and fast and power hitting position players this team would be set to contend for the foreseeable future.

It’s all theory and speculation at this point in time, but it’s the only thing Twins fans have to hold on to right now. 2013 may not be the season we’re all wanting, but 2014 and beyond are shaping up to be good years for the Twins.

Lukewarm Stove

Will someone light the ‘hot stove’ already? We’re weeks into the MLB second season and very little has happened to peak anyone’s interest. The Twins have been especially quiet so far, content to sign minor league free agents and players who could essentially be called "roster filler". With little ACTUAL news to discuss, we’ll turn our attention to the rumor mill this week and hope for some real stories to talk about next week.

Recent reports have the Twins front office meeting with Francisco Liriano’s agent some time next week during the winter meetings. The Twins are obviously exploring every avenue to rebuild their pitching staff, but you have to wonder about looking into Franky AGAIN. After last season’s collapse, many fans were happy to see Liriano leave. With the White Sox during the second half of the season, Liriano pitched almost as poorly as he had been with the Twins. (3-2, 5.40 ERA, 12 games, 56 innings, 34 ER, 58 SO with the White Sox vs 3-10, 5.31 ERA, 22 games, 100 innings, 59 ER, 109 SO with the Twins).

Liriano’s career ERA now sits at 4.40. While he continues to be a solid strikeout pitcher, he tends to catch too much of the plate and gets knocked around for a big inning a little bit too often. He’s worth a flier if you’re looking for a #5 starter with high upside, but the Twins have too many needs in their rotation for another "reclamation" project with Liriano.

　

The Twins have been linked as the front runners to sign free agent pitcher Brett Meyers. The 32 year old right hander was a mid season acquisition by the White Sox from the Astros. Meyers had been working out of the bullpen for Chicago and Houston over the past two seasons, but was a starter in 2010 and & 2011 for the Astros, racking up over 200 innings pitched in each season. Meyers is rumored to be interested in returning to a starting role, which would explain why the Twins are a front runner to sign him.

Meyers’ career ERA sits at 4.20, but his past few seasons have seen that number float in the mid 3’s. Meyers is also a strikeout pitcher, who has averaged between 160-180 strikeouts per season that he starts. Meyers could benefit from pitching ½ of his games at the spacious Target Field after pitching in the launch pad that was US Cellular & Minute Maid over the past three seasons.

Meyers would become what the Twins wanted Carl Pavano to be last season; an innings eating workhorse who could take the mound every fifth day, keep the game close and keep the bullpen fresh. He’s not a long term solution for the pitching problems the Twins have, but he could be a very suitable 2 to 3 year fill in.

　

The Twins are using this offseason to evaluate how they want to handle Kyle Gibson, who is coming off of Tommy John surgery in 2011. Gibson pitched in the Arizona Fall League this year, managing a respectable 3-2 record with a 5.40 ERA. Gibson’s last few starts in the Fall League were shaky, which boosted his ending ERA. Gibson’s raw stuff is impressive, however, with many scouts calling him a great "#2 starter on a championship team" which would instantly make him an ace for the Twins. Typically, pitchers coming back from Tommy John surgery have to be held to an innings limit to help prevent a return of any issues. The Twins are reportedly looking at how the Braves handed Kris Medlen’s return from TJ surgery in the 2012 season and using that as a model.

This report sort of tips the Twins hand as far as their rotation is concerned for next season. If they’re already looking at how to manage Gibson in the rotation that means they are likely considering Gibson as a player in said rotation for 2013. They might have to have a six man rotation in order to allow Gibson to skip a start here and there throughout the season, but it’s a good indicator of Gibson’s chances at the opening day roster that the Twins are looking at how they want to slot him in a rotation.

　

Denard Span has long been the player listed in trade talk for the Twins this offseason. Recent speculation has the Twins’ center fielder on the forefront of trade discussions once again – this time a trade partner has been found. The Atlanta Braves, who are desperate for CF help but do not want to get into the bidding wars for players like BJ Upton and Josh Hamilton, are the perfect fit for a player like Span. Span’s team friendly contract has long been his biggest plus in trade discussions and the Braves are loaded with young, major league ready pitching – something the Twins obviously covet.

Trade talks have centered around a Span for Tommy Hanson + prospects deal. Hanson has been one of the better pitchers in the Braves system of the past few years but is coming off of a down year in 2012. Hanson has typically shown good control, kept his ERA in the low to mid 3 range and has racked up solid strikeout numbers each season.

A Hanson for Span deal straight up would not suit the Twins, however, so the Braves are likely to have to kick in a prospect or two. Randall Delgado would fit the bill perfectly in this trade. He’s a prospect who is Major League ready and has shown great potential. The Twins would be able to place him in a starting role in 2013 and have a young arm in their rotation to build around for the future.

　

The San Francisco Giants are reportedly ready to cut loose bearded closer Brian Wilson. Wilson was due to make $6.85 million in 2013 but the Giants reportedly have no interest in signing their former closer to such a deal one year after Tommy John surgery. Wilson will reportedly be released on Friday.

The Twins would be wise to take a look at Wilson. They already have a closer established in Glen Perkins and a solid set-up man in Jared Burton, but if the past few championship teams have proven anything it’s that a team simply cannot have too many bullpen arms. Wilson could be a great compliment alongside Burton and Perkins and instantly turn a solid bullpen into a fearsome bullpen. At $5-$6 million Wilson would be a relatively affordable threat to stabilize the back end of the ‘pen.

So, let’s pretend the rumors all shake out like we just talked about. That would put the Twins rotation for 2013 like this:

Scott Diamond


Tommy Hanson


Randall Delgado


Brett Meyers


Kyle Gibson


Francisco Liriano / Liam Hendriks / Cole DeVries (On a ‘timeshare’ with Gibson)

Scott Diamond as an "ace" is not exactly a comforting thought, but the Twins are not likely to get an ace through the trade market and are unwilling to spend the money necessary to sign one on the free agent market. Essentially they would have built a rotation of #3 starters, which is certainly the Twins’ MO. All in all, that rotation would not be a bad one. With a potent offense like the Twins rolled out last season, the team should see their win totals increase significantly.

Crying Over Spilled Milk - The Marlins Superdeal & What Could Have Been

Well, things sure have changed in a week. After a relatively slow offseason, this week exploded with a couple of moves that have brought the MLB hot stove back to life.

Of course, the biggest news of the week was the super trade between Toronto and Miami.

The Marlins shipped Jose Reyes, Josh Johnson, Mark Buehrle, Emilio Bonifacio and John Buck to the Blue Jays for Yunel Escobar and a handful of prospects (6 in total).

First and foremost, I’ll say I side with the professional MLB writers in regards to this trade and the actions that Mr. Loria and the Marlins brass have taken. Do yourself a favor and read about Mr. Loria’s sketchy history with Montreal and the Expos and the (frequent) accusations that he was using baseball’s revenue sharing funds for personal gain (Pick an MLB writer and look at their blog / webpage – they’ve all covered this topic over the past few days). In short, his actions as an owner as despicable – he flat out lied to a city, used their tax dollars to build a new revenue generating machine for himself (the atrocious Marlins Park) and, in a bold fake out, traded away every big name player the team had one year later.

From a baseball standpoint, the deal does make a little (emphasis on little) sense for the Marlins. They finished dead last in an average division and never once looked like they were going to be competitive. Trading away some veteran talent for a haul of prospects is not unheard of – in fact, it could be deemed a savvy move on the part of Marlins, pending the results of these prospects.

For the Blue Jays, the trade makes all the sense in the world. They immediately fill their biggest needs (infield help, starting pitching) and while they admittedly did have to deal a decent chunk of their farm system away, they are getting tangible assets for potential (which is all prospects really are until they prove otherwise). The Blue Jays also get to dump the toxic Yunel Escobar, whose homophobic slur on his eye black this season was yet another chapter in the “bad decision” history Escobar has shown in his major league career.

Since this is a Twins focused blog, I have to pose the question, where were the Twins in all of this? According to Twins GM Terry Ryan, the team was “aware of the Marlins feelings” which is a fancy way of not really answering a question.

In all honesty, the Twins could have easily built a package around Miguel Sano, Joe Benson, Eddie Rosario, Liam Hendriks and Pedro Florimon / Brian Dozier / Eduardo Escobar (pick 1) that would have delivered the same value the Marlins were looking for. The Twins could have turned future potential into players that could help a team built around Mauer, Morneau, Willingham and Span (the established ‘vets’) compete right now.

Instead, the Blue Jays now have a solid middle infield with Reyes, Lawrie, Izturis, Hechavarria and Lind (that’s a top tier MI) and a rotation featuring Buehrle and Johnson (solid 1-2 punch).

Alas, this:

C: Joe Mauer

1B: Justin Morneau

2B: Jamey Carroll

SS: Jose Reyes

3B: Trevor Plouffe

LF: Josh Willingham

CF: Ben Revere

RF: Chris Parmelee

DH: Ryan Doumit

P: Josh Johnson

P: Mark Buehrle

P: Scott Diamond

P: James Shields (Theoretically traded for Denard Span)

P: Kyle Gibson

Bench:  Dozier, Bonafacio, Hermann, Mastroianni

Will only be a pipe dream of what “might have been”.

Other news worth looking at this week:

1) The Twins are reportedly in contact with all of the top free agent pitchers on the market. With only $26 million to allocate across 4 rotation spots, I find it unlikely that they will land the big boys, but it’s nice to know they’re trying.

2) The team is also seeking an alternative at 3B to “motivate” Trevor Plouffe. Obviously if they want Plouffe to be their everyday starter they aren’t looking for top tier 3B talent – but it’s worth following this story to see if anything develops.

3) Former Twins pitcher Scott Baker opted to sign a $5.5 million deal with the Cubs this week, ending his nine year tenure with the team that drafted him. Baker’s deal has $1.5 million in incentives, which is exactly what we all figured his contract would look like. What’s odd is that Baker, notorious for giving up home runs, chose to try to rebuild his value in Chicago’s Wrigley Field, known for giving up its fair share of home runs as well. Apparently the sticking point for Baker came to the option for a second year. The Twins (smartly) insisted on that, the Cubs decided they didn’t need to have that security.

While it’s a little surprising to see Baker leave, the Twins were never going to contend on the basis of signing Scott Baker alone. He was projected to be the #5 starter in a “timeshare” with Kyle Gibson. This does lower the options the Twins have, but it’s not a blow to their rebuilding plan. Terry Ryan was right to insist on a team option for a second year – the second year off of Tommy John surgery is usually the better year – why should the Twins build Baker’s value this season and not be able to reap the rewards next year?

The hot stove is heating up and the Twins, while silent so far, have been connected to some of the big fish. The team likes to play things close to the vest, so it’s not a shock that very little info has come forth about their plans so far this offseason. Here’s hoping the next 2 to 3 weeks have the some exciting news for Twins fans.