A Royal Split, Poor Starts & Future Moves

Just when you think you’re out, they pull you right back in. Twins fans were taken for a ride this weekend as the team hit absolute rock bottom, only to salvage the end of the series and bolster a little more optimism as they head west for their next road trip.

Friday seemed all too familiar of a scenario for the Twins. A great offensive effort was sabotaged by an atrocious pitching performance. Denard Span, Joe Mauer, Alexi Casilla and Trevor Plouffe all turned in very good offensive outings as the Twins flexed their muscle once again, in route to scoring six runs. Unfortunately, (as has been the case for much of this season) Friday night’s starter, Carl Pavano, was simply atrocious on the mound.

Pavano pitched 6.1 innings, giving up 4 earned runs and 6 hits and looked very hittable for much of the evening. Every Twins lead / tied game given to Pavano (3-2 in the 2^nd, 4-4 in the 4^th, 5-5 in the 6^th) was immediately coughed up by either Pavano or another member of the pitching staff (that night’s victim was Duensing).

The end result had the Twins on the wrong side of a 7-6 ballgame and was another bitter loss that had many Twins fans dejected and slightly lost with the 2012 season. By the end of the game Friday night, my optimism was gone. This was no longer a good team that just needed to put it together – this was a bad team. Dreams of competing in the AL Central were gone and a long losing season looked to be on the horizon.

Then, (after a Saturday rainout) Sunday came. Once again, Twins batters swung the bat well and put together a very impressive offensive showing. Josh Willingham, back from his 3 game paternity leave, showed why he was the best offseason signing for the Twins by going 3-5 and only being a homerun short of the cycle. Danny Valencia, Joe Mauer, Ryan Doumit and Denard Span turned in solid offensive outings as well.

The highlight of the afternoon, however, was the fact that for only the 4th time this season, a Twins starter turned in a quality start. (By contrast, 4 other major league clubs have at least 16 quality starts this year). Jason Marquis did exactly what the Twins pitchers are being expected to do this year, go 6 innings, hold the runs down (Marquis gave up only 3) and simply pitch well enough to give the offense a shot.

Burton, Perkins & a shaky Capps closed the game down and finally put the Twins back on the winning path with a 7-4 final score.

Twins Are Last In The League In Strikeouts:

Today, the talk from many of the Twins reporters and other baseball writers has been just how poor the Twins strikeout percentage is for their starters when compared to other teams across the league.

Currently, Twins pitchers have 105 strikeouts in 21 games – this is 18% fewer than any other major league team and 34% the MLB average (stats courtesy of Aaron Gleeman).

On the surface, those numbers look horrid – but, I think when presented with numbers like the ones above, you have to take into consideration who the Twins starters are and what they are trying to be. Outside of Francisco Liriano, the Twins do not have a starter who is expected to step out onto the mound and earn strikeouts. The very foundation of Twins pitching for years has been ‘pitch to contact’. Keep the ball down, put it in play and let the defense make the out.

So, low strikeout numbers are not alarming for this pitching staff – Pavano, Marquis, Blackburn, Hendriks and Swarzak and pitch to contact pitchers. They are going to get hit, but the idea is for them to keep it down in the zone and earn groundball outs. So far this year they haven’t been able to keep the ball down in the zone, and have suffered with the league’s worst starter ERA (7.09 going into Sunday’s game).

This was never going to be a strikeout staff, so these bad numbers should be taken with a grain of salt.

Oakland A’s DFA Luke Hughes:

After appearing in only a few games for the A’s, Oakland has given former Twin Luke Hughes his walking papers. Over the weekend, Oakland signed newly jettisoned Tiger’s 3B Brandon Inge, making Hughes expendable.

I still stand by the notion that the Twins made a mistake two weeks ago by cutting Hughes. He provided nice depth to the bench, and his ability to step in and play 2B & 3B in a pinch made him the team’s only real infield backup.

The Twins still lack any infield depth and have yet to make a move to shore up that issue. It was wildly speculated that last Thursday’s day off would be the perfect time for the Twins to call up some fresh blood and reduce the number of arms in the bullpen. Instead, the front office remained quiet and we enter this road trip with little in the way of changes to the roster.

If I’m the Twins, I put in a claim for Hughes and put him back on the bench (where he should have been all along). This gives Gardy a pinch hitter option for Casilla, as well as a defensive backup for Casilla, Valencia or Parmelee.

Pretend GM:

I made the case late last week for a few roster moves I think the Twins needed to make, and since they have done very little (I.E. nothing) in the way of moves so far – I’ll throw out a few more recommendations. If I’m in the Twins front office, these are the changes I’m making this week:

1. DFA Jeff Gray – While Gray does have a low ERA, he simply does not have the control to take advantage of his great pitch arsenal. In Friday’s game against Kansas City, Gray was a disaster, lasting only 1/3 of an inning and giving up a walk and a hit. He’s struggled to hit the zone all season and has a tendency to walk his way into trouble. Gray doesn’t have any minor league options, but I don’t think that should be the reason the Twins keep him sitting in the bullpen.

2. DFA Matt Maloney – Much like Gray, Maloney’s small flashes of brilliance have been surrounded by pedestrian performances and poor outings. Maloney cannot be sent down to the minors without clearing waivers, but once again, I’d take that chance.

3. Promote Scott Diamond to the majors: Diamond has been shining in AAA this year, posting a 4-1 record with a 2.84 ERA in 5 starts. Diamond has only walked 5 batters and has 24 strikeouts. He’s showing great stuff in AAA and the major league pitching staff has been horrendous. Get him up and in the starting rotation (in place of Liriano) ASAP. At the very least, use Diamond as long relief.

4. Promote Deolis Guerra: Guerra, who was recently promoted to AAA, has been tearing up the minors this season. Guerra had a 2-0 record with a miniscule .71 ERA in 7 games with AA New Britain. Guerra’s only walked 1 batter and has struck out 15. If he can continue to make bats miss in AAA, I think you have to bring him up to the majors. This bullpen has been solid, but would really benefit from another powerful arm (in the same vein as Glenn Perkins). This would allow Burton / Burnett to be saved for those middle innings that Maloney & Gray are currently working and would save Perkins & Guerra for that 7^th & 8^th inning bridge to Matt Capps.

5. Claim Luke Hughes OR Promote Brian Dozier: This is an either or situation – if Hughes is signed, there simply won’t be enough at bats for the youngster Dozier and it will make a lot more sense to let him play everyday in the minors. If the Twins decide that Hughes is not in their plans, however, I think you have to give Dozier a try. While his bat has cooled slightly in AAA, Dozier has proven through spring training and the early portion of the AAA season that he is a very solid hitter and a good defensive player in the middle infield. The Twins need 2B / SS depth and Dozier would allow for great flexibility in that regard. (The subsequent move would be to DFA Burroughs, who is of little use as a pinch hitter and can only fill in for Valencia on defense).

Looking Forward:

The Twins begin a 6 game road trip tonight in Los Angeles against the struggling Angels. Nick Blackburn, Francisco Liriano & Liam Hendriks are scheduled to be the starters for this series. I’d comment that I have little faith in that trio, but I don’t think there is a Twins starter that I’d trust to go out and win a game right now. Blackburn looked absolutely horrid in his first start back as he got lit up by Boston. Hopefully he has shaken off the rust and can at least keep the Twins in the game tonight. There’s simply no predicting what we’re going to see from Liriano and Hendriks, so I won’t even try.

After LA, the Twins head to Seattle and face off with the Mariners. It’s hard to say that any series in early May is “must win” but I sort of feel like these next two series are critical outings for the Twins. By the end of the road trip, they will have played 27 games – returning home with any but two digits in the win column would be a failure for this team.

(For those who are bad at math, I’m stating they need to go 4-2 on this road trip). Given the current state of the starting rotation, that may be a stretch. Realistically, I’m simply hoping they win 1 in LA and take 2 from Seattle. (I’m also hoping they don’t give Albert Pujols his first HR of the year).

The downside of a west coast trip is that first pitch is at 9pm central time. Not sure how much of these games I’ll watch to completion…

Let’s start a new win streak Twins! I’ll be back throughout the week. Until then,

Go Twins!

From Bad To Worse - Red Sox Sweep Twins

Well, it could have been worse. That’s about all Twins fans have to cling to this morning as we look back at the rubble of a 3 game sweep at the hands of the Red Sox.

Recap:

Liam Hendriks, who had been the Twins most efficient starter, turned in a performance to forget; giving up 7 earned runs over 4 innings of work.

The Twins offense continued its maddening trend of leaving runners in scoring position, leaving 17 runners on base. They managed to load the bases in the 1^st, 6^th and 9^th, but outside of the 5 run 6^th inning; they did very little with those opportunities.

The Twins got to Clay Buckholz early and often; earning 10 hits and 3 walks, but were unable to really damage the Red Sox starter until the 6^th inning. The Red Sox bullpen then did their best to let the Twins back into the game as Scott Acthison, Justin Thomas, Matt Albers, Vincente Padilla, Franklin Morales & Alfredo Aceves gave up another 4 hits plus a walk and an earned run to close out the game. They didn’t look dominate – or even all that impressive at times, however, they did manage to stymie the Twins batters.

The Twins made things interesting in the 9^th by loading the bases for Denard Span, but were unable to capitalize and ended up falling to Sox 7-6.

Notes & Musings:

Ben Revere, in his first appearance in the majors since being sent down on April 14^th, was an impressive 2-5 with a double and accounted for 2 of the Twins 6 runs. He showed better plate discipline and a slightly better eye, lying off of balls that he used to chase. There were still instances of weak grounders up the middle, but those are going to happen with any batter.

Revere’s speed makes him valuable to the team and especially dangerous when he does get on base. His biggest flaw, however, is his defense. While he is an agile and able defender in the outfield, once he has to make a throw, it’s apparent that he isn’t really built for the outfield. In the 2^nd inning yesterday, Cody Ross hit a single to Revere in left. David Ortiz (standing on second to start the at bat) managed to rumble his way around third and score on the play. Revere bobbled the ball when throwing it in to the cutoff man, which ended any chance the Twins had to catch Ortiz.

The Twins couldn’t catch Ortiz because he never hesitated when rounding third. Teams know that Revere’s arm is subpar, and they are going to take advantage of that when the ball is hit to left. One of the slower base runners in the majors didn’t even hesitate to round third when the ball was hit sharply to Revere. That’s a problem.

Chris Parmelee was drilled in the helmet by Justin Thomas in the 6^th inning and had to be pulled from the game. We haven’t heard from the Twins yet as to the exact condition that Parmelee is in, [Update: Twins say there are “No signs of a concussion”] but he was seen in the dugout during the 9^th inning last night laughing and generally appearing to be well and in good spirits. The off day today comes at a perfect time, allowing Parmelee to catch an extra day’s rest before possibly coming back into the game. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Morneau at 1B on Friday, simply for the sake of giving Parmelee extra time to recover.

Alexi Casilla, perhaps realizing his job is in danger, went 3-4 last night with a RBI and accounted for one of the Twins runs. Casilla can be frustrating to watch at times as he flashes between very good and down right bad. Last night was one of his good nights, and it may have bought him some more time on Ron Gardenhire’s good side. I still hope to see the Twins bring up Brian Dozier and give him some time at 2B and SS over the next few series – but with Casilla’s good game, they might not give Dozier that chance.

Anthony Swarzak, Jared Burton and Glen Perkins deserve high praise for a fantastic 5 combined innings of 1 hit relief last night. Swarzak came in and stopped the bleeding in the 5^th and managed to take the game all the way to the 8^th without giving the red hot Red Sox batters so much as a sniff of adding to the score.

Glen Perkins appears to be ‘back’ from whatever was plaguing him a few weeks ago. He looked absolutely dominate in the 8^th as he struck out the side. He seems to have a great deal of confidence when he enters the game and the way he attacks the zone seems to overwhelm even the best hitters. If he can continue to pitch like this and Capps continues to be inconsistent, I don’t believe it will be too long before Perkins gets promoted to closer. (That’s likely where he’ll end up next season either way. Why not try him out this year?)

Things Will Get Better…Right?

I’ve sworn up and down that this team was better than last season’s debacle. Simply by watching them you can see that they are vastly better than the 2011 edition. Their offense is able to score runs (something the 2011 edition struggled with greatly) and their bullpen has been very good (2011’s bullpen was the biggest issue, giving away many games late). Those points all may be true, but the fact remains – this team is one game WORSE than they were at the same point last year. (5-14 this year, 6-13 last season).

That’s deflating.

The obvious flaw with this team is the starting pitching. Their starters’ ERA is an alarming 7.09 a full run higher than the Red Sox, who have the second worst ERA at 5.78. This has contributed to the Twins horrid run differential (last in the league) and is why this seemingly better built team is actually worse than last season.

As baseball writer Aaron Gleeman said last night in a tweet following the game “Twins lineup and bullpen certainly did their jobs tonight, but tough to win when starter gives up seven runs. Story of the season so far.” Amen to that.

Movers & Shakers:

The Twins are expected to make a roster move sometime today, likely calling up a utility infielder and sending down a pitcher. (Brian Dozier / Jeff Gray are the names suspected to be coming up / going down respectively).

I wonder if Sean Burroughs will continue to get an opportunity to be the backup to Danny Valencia. While Burroughs has shown the ability to play some solid defense, his bat is almost an automatic out when he enters the lineup. He has little value as a defensive replacement (Valencia’s defense, while slightly worse that Burroughs’, is not that poor) and absolutely no value as a pinch hitter off the bench.

This is pure speculation – but I wouldn’t be stunned to see the Twins call up Ray Chang from AAA (hitting .321 with an RBI at Rochester) and designate Burroughs for assignment. Chang could likely be shifted to 1B in a pinch as well, adding some extra depth to the roster.

Pretend GM:

If I were calling the shots – the next few moves I’d make for the Twins would be:

Call up Miguel Sano to Fort Meyers: Sano is hitting .271 with 6 home runs and 18 RBI. He’s clearly the Twins future at third and I’d like to see how he performs against better pitching. Ideally, I’d put Sano on a path to be on the major league roster come opening day 2013.

Designate Sean Burroughs for assignment, call up Ray Chang.

Designate Jeff Gray for Assignment, call up Brian Dozier.

Option Alex Burnett to AAA, move Francisco Liriano to the bullpen, call up Scott Diamond from AAA.  

Looking Forward:

Pavano takes the mound on Friday for the Twins and can hopefully pitch his way through 7 or 8 good innings and get the Twins back on the winning path. The Royals are the only team in the AL that’s behind the Twins (and that’s thanks to a 12 game losing streak). If there was ever a time that a team needed a sweep early in the season – this would be it.

2 out of 3 is, of course, the realistic goal – but this team needs to ‘WIN’ a series, not just take these “moral victories” and call them good enough. 5-14 is a bad record. There’s no spinning that into a positive anymore. Yes, the schedule has been tough, but the Twins have also lost a lot of games they should have won (game 2 of the Orioles series, game 2 of the Ranger’s series, game 4 of the Yankees series, game 2 of the Rays series, games 1 & 3 of the Red Sox series) That’s 6 wins left on the table. 11-8 is a whole heck of a lot better than 5-14. It’s time to actually win some of these games they’re SHOULD be winning. That starts Friday with Pavano.

I hope.

Go Twins!

Movers & Shakers

The Twins are in the process of making a few roster moves that are worth noting.

Josh Willingham is away from the team for the next 2 to 3 games on paternity leave (congratulations Josh!) meaning the earliest we can expect him back is likely for Saturday’s game.

This allows the Twins to call up some help from AAA in the form of Ben Revere. Obviously, the offense is going to suffer without Willingham’s bat in the lineup, especially since Revere is a completely different hitter than Willingham. However, Revere is a solid defensive option and will likely only stick with the team for the 3 days that Willingham is away.

The rumblings around the Twins seem to indicate that Thursday’s off day will likely see the Twins make another roster move. The team is carrying 13 pitchers, which has left the bench a little thin over the past few games. Jeff Gray will likely be the pitcher to be sent down, but that is certainly not set in stone.

With Jamey Carroll and Alexi Casilla the only true middle infielder’s on the roster (Plouffe works well in a pinch, but he is meant for the outfield) the Twins are expected to call up a 2B/SS backup to give Casilla or Carroll a few games off.

The popular notion seemed to be that Tsuyoshi Nishioka would likely get a second chance at the majors and be a utility bench player for the Twins for the foreseeable future. However, Nishioka injured his ankle and was placed on the 7 day DL on Monday.

Things became a little more interesting yesterday, when Ron Gardenhire talked about Brian Dozier. “He’s definitely the top guy down there, there’s no doubt about that.” Dozier has outplayed Nishioka in AAA this season and has vaulted over him on the depth chart. The only thing that stopped the hot hitting Dozier from making the opening day roster in the first place was the issue of playing time. With Casilla struggling and Dozier continuing to play very well in the minors, it might be hard for the Twins to leave him down there any longer.

I’d wager Dozier gets the call and is allowed to start for 3 to 4 games (in place of Casilla, then in place of Carroll). If he can show the ability to play good defense and get on base, I think he’ll stick in the majors.

At this point, the plan for the Twins obviously isn’t work too well. They have the amazing ability to leave runners in scoring position and cannot seem to come up with a clutch hit when needed. The bottom of the order (Valencia, Casilla, Thomas, Plouffe) have especially struggled with this. Maybe a new bat and some fresh energy are what this team needs to get rolling again.

I’d like to see Dozier bat in Casilla’s spot (9^th) and see how much that changes the offense. If Dozier can keep up his great hitting, suddenly your #9 hitter is on base to be followed by Span, Carroll and Mauer (all three of which are hitting very well this year). Suddenly a stagnant offense turns into a more efficient – run scoring – offense.

Obviously this is all speculation as we don’t even know if the Twins will send down their 13^th pitcher or if they will call up Dozier if given the chance. I’m hoping they do – and I’m hoping Dozier proves that he deserves the starting 2B role over Casilla. We’ll find out on Thursday when the Twins have an off day. Until then,

Go Twins!

Red Sox Proving Tough For Twins

Coming into the Boston series Monday night, the Twins were poised to make a strong statement. This team was talented, this team is not to be overlooked this year and this team is still in contention in the AL. Those statements were made, but they ended up being said about the Red Sox, not the Twins.

Instead, as we get ready for the series finale tonight, it’s the Red Sox that will depart this series with great momentum and looking like they’re alive again in the AL. Missed opportunities and downright horrid pitching set the Twins back two games to start the series, which leaves them sitting at a sorry 5-13 and most of the early season optimism has completely evaporated.

Recap:

Monday night’s game was there for the taking. The Twins rode an impressive 4 run 4^th inning to take the lead after Marquis gave up 3 earned runs in a shaky first few innings. Marquis locked thing down in the middle innings and the Twins pushed across another to move to a comfortable 5-3 going into the 7^th inning. Then things fell apart.

Ron Gardenhire, in an attempt to save the overworked bullpen, let Marquis take the mound with a 97 pitch count in the 7^th. You could see early on that Marquis was almost out of gas. After giving up a single to Saltalamacchia who stuck a sharp single to the outfield, Twin killer Cody Ross stepped up to the plate. Marquis left a pitch up. Ross absolutely crushed it to left and the game was tied.

The Twins lead off the 8^th with an impressive triple from Jamey Carroll (the old guy can run!) but failed to move the go ahead run home as Mauer grounded out weakly, Willingham struck out, Morneau walked and Doumit crushed a liner to third – right into Youkilis’ glove.

Capps pitched well in the 9^th, but Cody Ross simply took a good Capps pitch and crushed it to right field.

In the bottom of the inning, Trevor Plouffe briefly put the hope of a walk-off home run into Twins fans hearts as he crushed a fly ball to left center – but it didn’t quite have enough carry to leave the park (it end up about two feet shy of the wall).

I’m not going to spend much time on Tuesday’s game except to say this; Blackburn looked poor. He probably should have thrown in AAA once or twice just to work on pitch location. He seemed to leave too many pitches up and the Red Sox’s good offense capitalized. Maloney was just as bad, giving up an additional 5 earned runs. If you want to be the long reliever, you cannot cough up as many runs as the ineffective starter.

Josh Beckett had no business taking the mound in the 2^nd inning. He was arguing on the mound about balls and strikes DURING the 1^st inning and was very obviously yelling at the home plate umpire after leaving the 1^st “That’s {expletive} five outs!” If a batter even questions balls and strikes, he gets tossed. (See: Span in New York last week). Beckett ran his mouth and was way out of line – he should have been tossed after the first inning.

Looking Forward:

Thankfully, the Twins send Liam Hendriks to the mound tonight. Hendriks has been the Twins most consistent pitcher, but has yet to earn a win this season. Hendriks has been able to keep the ball down this year, and has not really allowed an “It’s all going to heck” inning this year. (Vigorously knocking on wood).

The Twins really need to salvage tonight’s game so they can have some form of momentum heading into the Kansas City series. A win tonight still puts the Twins in position to go 4-2 during this home stand. (Granted, that means they will have to sweep the Royals, but with the way the Royals are playing – they should be able to do that).

A 4-2 run would put the twins at 9-13 and still alive in the central. (Technically, every team is still alive in any race and it’s far too early to count anyone out – but I think the Twins need to hover around .500 for the beginning of the year until they can start to become more consistent).

I still believe in this team, but my confidence has taken a bit of hit after the past two days (last night especially). That 11-2 beat down was reminiscent of last season’s team.

Win tonight and take advantage of a skidding Royals squad (losers of 12 straight) to regain some ground in the central. Go Twins!

3 Up 4 Down - A 'Win' For The Twins?

All things considered, the latest road trip for the Twins ended pretty well. Okay, the last game of the series in Tampa Bay did not end well – the series overall did, however. Last week, I predicted the Twins would split two with the Yankees and take one of three with the Rays.

This 3-4 road trip means the Twins currently sit at 5-11 after 16 games. That is obviously not where they would like to be at this point in the season, but I’d argue that with their schedule, it’s not a bad start. Their only bad losses this year came at the hands of Baltimore before the offense began swinging the bats as well as they have.

The other series results were reasonable as well:

Los Angeles – Twins won 2 of 3

Texas – Swept (Rangers are the best team in the AL by a large margin)

Yankees – Twins won 2 of 2 (IN YANKEE STADIUM!)

Rays – Twins won 1 of 3 (Ran into Shields, who is fantastic and threw Liriano out in game 3… more on that later)

I’ve been saying since day one that this Twins team is better than last year’s team and that they would begin to show others (non Twins fans) this after they got out of the gauntlet that was the opening few weeks of their schedule. After a rough, but respectable start, the Twins now have two series against some opponents who are having a rougher go of the early season.

The Red Sox are in absolute turmoil right now. Bobby Valentine has quickly worn out his welcome with the Red Sox fans and media and the team is doing very little to back him up. Their bullpen is horrid right now, giving up leads at the drop of the hat (none more publicly than a 9 run advantage they gave away to the Yankees on Saturday). The Red Sox come into Target Field reeling, and the Twins needs to take advantage by winning at least 2 out of 3.

Following the Red Sox are the somehow-collapsing-worse Royals. Kansas City has lost 10 straight and simply cannot put a good game together. When their starters pitch well, the offense goes silent, when the bats are hot, the pitchers can’t finish (sounds a lot like the Twins last season). Once again, if the Twins want to play any part of the AL Central race this season they need to beat teams that are struggling. 2 wins in 3 games are required for this series to be a success.

If the Twins can go 4-2 on this next 6 game stint, that would put them at 9-13 and in a great position in the Central.

Liriano Needs Relocation:

Last week, I speculated that Francisco Liriano may need some form of help getting out of his own head. The Twins number two starter has been an absolute abomination this season, giving up at last 5 earned runs in each of his 4 starts. He has lacked control, consistency and confidence, the result is a 0-3 record and an 11.02 ERA.

During Friday night’s FSN telecast, Dick & Bert spoke briefly about a conversation they had with Twins Pitching Coach Rick Anderson. They said that Anderson and Liriano had figured out his lack of early season control was due to an overreliance on his two seam fastball. In spring training, Liriano was leaning heavily on his four seam fastball and it was working – either striking batters out or inducing ground ball outs. Anderson told Liriano to move away from the two seam fastball and instead use the four seam fastball until he feels he’s ready to go back to the two seam fastball.

Apparently, Liriano didn’t listen. By my count, during his first inning alone, Liriano threw 15 pitches. 9 of them were two seam fastballs. That trend continued through the rest of the game. The more Liriano got behind, the more he seemed to lean on the two seamer and the more that two seamer seemed to get away from him. Finally, it happened – Liriano imploded. He walked the bases loaded in the 4^th and that was essentially all she wrote for the Twins. At the end of the day, Liriano went another paltry 5 innings, giving up 5 earned runs and walking 4 Rays.

Mechanical, mental or somewhere in between Liriano is a liability to the Twins right now. So, where do the Twins go from here? The way I see it they have a few choices:

1. Put Liriano on the DL with “elbow soreness” or some other malady. Have him go back to the basics and work on his mechanics and try to build up his confidence through one on one interaction with the coaches.

2. Send Liriano down to AAA or even AA. He needs to work on everything – his mechanics, his control, and his pitches – so let him keep getting practice against a lower quality of batter. This is actually what the Blue Jays did with Roy Halladay in 2001. He was struggling with pitch location and command, so the Jays sent him down to the minors and let him work out his problems. You don’t have to be a big time baseball fan to know who well that worked. 

The only issue with this plan is that Liriano’s veteran status could allow him to refuse the demotion. That would mean the Twins would have to keep him or release him. Since this is Liriano’s last year of his current contract, he’s likely to fight anything to would cause him to lose long term money next season.

3. Move him to the bullpen. Liriano seems capable of only throwing one to two solid innings before imploding. So, move him to a situation where he only sees one to two innings of work. Swarzak’s arm has already been stretched out to be a starter, so he could easily step back into the rotation to take his place.

Other options include moving Duensing back to a starter (unlikely) or calling up Scott Diamond from AAA (posting a 1.30 ERA in 4 starts this season).

I see option 3 as the most likely choice the Twins will make. This allows them to remove Liriano from the starting rotation while still being able to try to create value for him this season. Both player and team benefit from this move – it could create a solid ‘shut-down’ arm out of the ‘pen for the Twins while Liriano still gets to show teams he is capable of being a high level pitcher (essentially auditioning for his next contract).

Change Is Likely Coming:

The Twins know that Jamey Carroll cannot start everyday at short stop, but they are currently thin at options to back him up. Alexi Casilla can move there in a pinch, but without Luke Hughes (now an Oakland A) they don’t have a dependable 2B alternative.

If Liriano moves to the bullpen, that would make another bullpen pitcher expendable and allow for the Twins to reduce the number of pitchers on the active roster from 13 to 12. It’s likely that Jeff Gray, who has struggled mightily of late, would be the next player to be sent down. Gray is out of options and would have to be placed on waivers, but I don’t think that would stop the Twins from parting ways.

If Gray goes down, who comes up? One option is Tsuyoshi Nishioka, who has been playing a good deal of time at 2B in AAA this year. Nishioka could be a good utility player – with the ability to cover 2B if Casilla is at SS or even play SS when Carroll needs a day off. 

The option Twins fans want to see is Brian Dozier called up and given a chance. That is likely not going to happen, however, as the Twins management is adamant that Dozier stay in the minors until he can get everyday at bats at the major league level. With Carroll playing fairly well, that is unlikely to happen anytime soon.

There are some other minor league options bouncing around, but I’d wager Nishioka gets a chance at redemption with the Twins.

Looking Forward:

Marquis takes the mound tonight versus Lester as the Twins look to continue the Red Sox woes. The next six games are critical for the Twins. The only two teams in the AL that are worse than Minnesota are Boston and Kansas City. It’s time to pounce on a lesser team and gain some ground on Detroit. Go Twins!

Twins Take 2

Well, 2 out of 4 isn’t bad at all. Last night, despite another solid performance from their offense, the Twins couldn’t quite push across enough runs to beat Curtis Granderson the Yankees, losing in a tight one 7-6.  

I said a few days ago that a split with the Yankees in New York would be a great indicator for the Twins. I originally said that on the basis that a 2/2 split would have to mean the Twins’ pitching finally got it together and put on a solid performance. Instead, it was the offense that stepped up and simply out hit the Yankees twice.

 Early season woes of an anemic offense have long since passed. Clearly Justin Morneau is feeling better and swinging the bat with great authority as he is currently hitting .267 with 4 home runs and 6 RBI. He still seems to lack some plate discipline and is instead simply stepping up to the plate with the intention of hitting a home run or sitting down (AKA the Jim Thome approach). However, a healthy(ier) Morneau is a great thing for the Twins and his bat has been the catalyst to really get this offense moving.  

What If…   

What if the Twins find themselves out of the race come the trade deadline and the Yankees are in a tight race for the AL East (early indicators look that will be a close contest). If you’re New York, how do you NOT offer a few high quality prospects to the Twins for a rental on Morneau? The way Morneau is absolutely mashing the ball to right combined with Yankee Stadium’s (ridiculously) short right field porch, he could be the big bat that would put the Yankees over the top.  

If you’re the Twins, this move clears off roster money, delivers a few more major league ready players to your system (preferably pitchers) and allows the team to be better set up for what could be a very good 2013 season.  

Don’t get me wrong, I don’t like the Yankees and would hate to see them win another World Series. That being said, a Morneau trade at mid-season makes the most sense for everyone involved. (If the Twins are out of it. If they’re in contention the Yankees can go away – Morneau is here to stay.)  

Good News:  

 Look at this lineup (with the benefit of hindsight and current season performance)  

Span
Carroll
Mauer
Willingham
Morneau
Parmelee / Doumit
Valencia
Thomas / Plouffe
Casilla  

The front end of that lineup gets on base – it’s not always pretty but they are very regularly standing on first after their at bat. Span has picked up right where he left off last season (the first half of it anyway), hitting the ball well and showing the ability to get the game started right. Carroll has such great plate vision and discipline that his appearances usually end up in walks – but on base is on base, I don’t care how you get there!  

Those two are followed by Mauer (hitting well, getting on base and moving runners over) and then the terrifying power duo of Willingham and Morneau.  

The power front is followed by Parmelee / Doumit, and Valencia (or some combination of that order) who are no slouches at the plate either.  

Finally, Plouffe / Thomas and Casilla are not quite the same threat but are good enough to have to be taken seriously. (I.E. they’re not an easy out).  

While it may not have the big name appeal of the Rangers, Tigers or Yankees lineups, this is a very consistent and competitive batting order. As the season goes on, I think it will start to get the attention it deserves.

 The Not-So-Good  

The pitching. Mother of all things holy the pitching… While the batting order could spark fear into some pitchers hearts, the Twins’ starting pitching is likely to only cause laughter (of delight) from the opponent’s batting order. Here’s the current starting 5 (technically 6 due to injuries):

 Pavano: 5.23 ERA, 10 K’s, 3 BBs, 4 HRs  (1-1)
Liriano: 11.91 ERA, 8 K’s, 9 BBs, 2 HRs  (0-2)
Blackburn: 5.56 ERA, 6 K’s, 3 BBs, 1 HR  (0-1)
Swarzak: 6.65 ERA, 7 K’s, 3 BBs, 5 HRs  (0-3)
Hendriks: 1.50 ERA, 4 K’s, 0 BBs, 1 HR (0-0)
Marquis: 7.20 ERA, 3 K’s, 2 BBs, 1 HR (1-0)  

Hendriks is the only starter on that list who has good numbers so far this year. (And that’s only through one start). I’m not as concerned about Pavano as the others as he seems to have figured out whatever was plaguing him early on in the year and has better command of his pitches. I’d expect his ERA to settle into the low 4.00 to 3.5 range as he gets more starts.  

Blackburn (if healthy) has shown a great improvement in his mechanics from the past few seasons (he’s actually striking batters out!) If he can continue this consistently, I could see him settling into a solid #3 role in the rotation.

Swarzak, after starting off so well in Baltimore has been shelled by both the Rangers and Yankees. It’s hard to tell if that is simply a result of pitching against fantastic lineups or if he simply doesn’t have the makeup of a starter. He seems to be leaving pitches up in the zone – and when you’re playing against teams like New York, Texas, Detroit and Los Angeles (Angels) you’re going to get beat up for mistakes like that.  

Like Pavano, I’m not really concerned about Marquis’ start. By all accounts (via Twins writers and analysts) he was very nervous to be pitching in New York and it’s highly likely that his nerves were the cause of his poor start on Wednesday. Combine that fact with the rust Marquis certainly would have after being away from pitching for a few weeks to deal with his daughter’s injury and I think Marquis’ poor start can be attributed to extenuating circumstances. The fact that he was able to ‘even out’ and pitch well for another 5 innings only helps confirm that theory.  

Even if Blackburn, Pavano & Marquis are “Okay” starting pitchers, this staff still doesn’t have that one guy they can send out and get a ‘W’ on any day. (Like the Tigers have in Verlander, the Rays have in Price, the Angels have in CJ Wilson – etc.) If Hendriks can continue to keep his pitches down and keep fooling hitters, maybe he’ll develop into that crafty starter the Twins are looking for. Tonight’s start against the Rays will be a big indicator of that.    

Looking Forward:   

The Twins start a 3 game series with the Rays tonight in Tampa Bay. If they can continue to swing their bat like they did in New York, they will be in decent shape. Tampa Bay is another high quality AL team so the Twins will certainly have their hands full in each and every game in this series. When this road trip started, I hoped the Twins would at least go 3-4 on the this 7 game swing and still be in position to makeup a little ground once the schedule got easier. The Twins have the talent to take 2 of 3 from Tampa Bay – IF (big if) the pitching can deliver solid outings. A sweep would be debilitating to their early season momentum. Realistically, I think Twins fans should be happy if they pull out 1 win in Tampa and end this stretch with a 5-11 record. 6 games under after series with New York, Texas, Los Angeles and Tampa Bay is not a bad thing at all.

 Of course, a sweep (and a 7-9 record) are always welcome! Go Twins!

Twins Designate Luke Hughes For Assignment

The world is a little bit of a darker place this afternoon. With the addition of Jason Marquis to the Twins roster, it was known that the team would have to send someone down to the minors to make room for the starter.

Late this afternoon, the Twins announced that Australian slugger Luke Hughes was that player.

This is surprising for so many reasons. The Twins could use the bench depth that Hughes provided (1B, 2B, 3B, OF in a pinch) and his bat is none to shabby either. Secondly, the Twins are now carrying 13 (!) pitchers on the 25 man roster. This is slightly surprising as there are some relivers (Burton, Maloney) who have been shaky at best this year and could have done with some more seasoning in AAA.

Hughes was out of minor league options, meaning he will have to clear waivers to be sent to AAA. He's not expected to clear waivers (he's an average defender with the ability to swing a strong stick off the bench - he'll be claimed) meaning his days as a Twin are likely over.

Hughes has always been one of my favorite Twins - both as a player and just as a person. I'm incredibly sad to see him go. (Here's hoping he makes it through waivers...)

Finally, SHAME on Twins fans for not getting the "Aussie, Aussie, Aussie - Oy, Oy, Oy" Chants going when Hughes came up to bat. That was a golden opportunity that was missed (despite my efforts to start the chant at home - the crowd never picked up on it...)

Good luck Luke. Here's hoping you're still a Twin in a couple of days.

Aussie, Aussie, Aussie....

Liriano's Mechanics Are "Out of Whack"

This morning I threw out some theories on what exactly is wrong with the Twins (supposed) ace, Francisco Liriano. Injuries had been ruled out and I mentioned that outside of mechanics (which I will admit, unless it's blatantly obvious, I would never pick up - especially when it comes to pitchers) that the problem must be mental.

Parker Hageman, in a story that first appeared on TwinsDaily.com, breaks down Liriano's pitching mechanics, more specifically his body positioning right before he releases the pitch. It's not too much of a surprise to see that Liriano is wildly off base from where he was during 2010 and even during parts of last season.

I would think that if reporters and Twins fans have noticed this change, then the Twins coaching staff (Rick Anderson specifically) is well ahead of the curve and already working with Liriano on fixing the issue. I'm still sticking to my "shut him down" plan I established earlier. Give Liriano 15 days to fix his mechanics and maybe clear out his head before letting him decimate another otherwise quality Twins outing.

You can read the entire article (recommended) HERE. The pictures included really show what's going on with Liriano's mechanics.

Francisco Liriano's Great Implosion

You can almost set your watch to Francisco Liriano’s implosions on the mound. Shortly after the Twins scraped together a few runs and put a 3-1 lead up on C.C. Sabathia last night, I said “Watch, Liriano will give it all back in the next half inning.” Sure enough, Liriano proceeded to allow 4 runs in route to a short 2.1 inning, 5 ER outing. (He also walked 4 and struck out only 2).

In 3 starts this year, Liriano has an 11.91 ERA, while allowing 17 hits, 15 earned runs and giving up 9 walks – all in only 11 innings. Atrocious doesn’t even begin to describe how poorly Liriano has pitched so far this year.

Liriano's ERA - it's off the charts this year (in a bad way)

Liriano's walks per 9 innings. Again, off the charts, again not in a good way

Coming into this season, the Twins desperately needed Liriano to step up and become the staff ace. The team needed a starter who could be “that guy”, who would be the guy that the fans could say “Oh, Liriano is starting? We’ve got a great chance to win!” Through the later part of spring training, it looked like Liriano was poised to be just that. Instead, Liriano has absolutely imploded as he has been unable to locate his key pitches (his slider seems to hang up in the zone or be buried in the dirt) or tack on any extra velocity to his fast ball.

The question is, what’s wrong with Liriano and how can it be fixed? I haven’t heard any rumblings that he is suffering from an injury or discomfort (like Glen Perkins) so that option is likely out. (Although I wouldn’t be stunned if the Twins gave Liriano a somewhat-made-up injury issue and stuck him on the DL for 15 days to figure out whatever is wrong). Liriano could be struggling with his pitching mechanics, but after a strong spring, that would be surprising.The other option is that Liriano is in his own head so far that he over-thinks and thereby overthrows during his starts.

Over thiking? Over pitching? Mental? Mechanical? WHAT'S WRONG WITH YOU!?

In an in game interview with Carl Pavano Tuesday night on FSN, Dick & Bert talked to Pavano about any support he tries to give to Liriano when he’s struggling. Pavano mentioned that he has talked to Liriano about his approach and what he’s telling himself in key situations. While it wasn’t directly stated, Pavano seemed to imply that Liriano gets himself into jams and then thinks “I can’t leave this pitch up” rather than “Let’s get this guy to chase this pitch low and away” (I.E. negative thoughts in place of positive goals).

(As an aside, Carl Pavano certainly has a future as an analyst or broadcaster once he decides his career is over. His short conversation with Dick & Bert was absolutely fascinating as he gave great insight to what pitchers are thinking during at bats, how pitchers approach certain hitters and the science behind pitching. Pavano was articulate, interesting and well informed and would be perfectly suited behind a desk once his career is over.)

If the problem is mental, I’m not sure how the Twins go about fixing the situation. Is the issue simply Liriano getting too pumped up for his starts and then overdoing each matchup? Or, does he simply lack confidence in his ability right now? Either way, if I’m the Twins coaches I would give serious thought to putting Liriano on the DL and letting him work on his mechanics. Afterwards I’d allow Liriano a few starts in AAA and gauge how he does before moving him back into the starting rotation.

Liriano’s value to the Twins is either as solid #1 or #2 starter or as trade bait during this year’s deadline. Currently he’s not even a decent #5 starter and is certainly not going to command any value above a low level (AA?) prospect in a trade. Sending him to the DL and/or AAA could help ‘fix’ whatever has gone horribly wrong with Liriano this season.

(I don’t subscribe to the theory that Liriano should move to the bullpen. That move would INCREASE the pressure on Liriano and would likely make any mental hurdles he has even harder to clear. In addition, bullpen pitchers need to throw strikes and be strikeout machines or at the very least have great command. Maybe a healthy and effective Liriano can do that, but this iteration is not presently able to be that pitcher.)

Worth Noting:

The Twins put together a nice win on Monday night (in Yankee Stadium!) thanks to a great start from Carl Pavano (after a bad 1^st inning) and solid at bats from Mauer, Morneau, Willingham and Valencia. Great defense throughout the game from Casilla and Carroll helped as well.

They currently sit at 3-8 (due mostly to a rough opening schedule, I continue to say they’re better than a bottom feeding team) and are 1-1 with the Yankees in this series. If the team continues some of the good things they’ve been doing (timely hitting, decent pitching) they should pull at least one more win out of New York before heading to Tampa Bay. A series split with a good Yankee squad would be a ‘win’ as far as I’m concerned.

Jason Marquis makes his Twins debut tonight Vs. Hideki Kuroda. Hopefully Marquis can be “Pavano-esque” tonight. Go Twins!

Close But Not Quite Close Enough

Quick Recap (Because no one wants to dwell on losing)

While it certainly isn’t surprising, given the amazing talent that the Texas Rangers* have compiled, to wake up and find the Twins getting swept in another weekend series, it is a little disappointing. Especially given the way they lost every game over the 3 game series.

*Seriously, find the easy out in this lineup: Kinsler, Andrus, Hamilton, Beltre, Young, Murphy, Napoli, Torrealba, Cruz. You can't. That's a VERY good lineup. The Rangers are a very, very good team.

In each game, the Twins managed to get runners on base and into scoring position. Each game, the Twins failed to bring those runners home when it really mattered. Sunday looked like the day that failing to convert some of those runs wouldn’t matter as the Twins (and new right fielder Clete Thomas) still managed to push across 3 against Neftali Feliz and the Rangers.

Unfortunately, Glen Perkins couldn’t hold that lead and promptly gave up 3 runs to the first three batters he faced in the 8^th and that was all she wrote for the Twins. Unlike some Twins fans, I’m not ready to give up on 2012 after the second sweep of the season. In fact, I went in to this series thinking that taking 1 of 3 would be a ‘win’ as far as this still developing team is concerned.

Given the way they played (fairly well) and the opportunities they had to win (numerous) I’m still positive about this Twins team and their talent. They’re not a bad team and they will win some games this year. In fact, I think they’ll end up winning more than last year…so long as some concerns are addressed.

New Concerns:

The first and foremost concern I have with this team lies with Justin Morneau who looks simply overmatched and overwhelmed at the plate this season. He has frequently been missing balls right over the heart of the plate that he would normally crush to the outfield. In addition, he is swinging at absolutely everything that comes within three feet of the plate. Morneau struck out frequently in this Rangers series, a few times in crucial “runners in scoring position” spots and a few of those strikeouts saw him swinging (poorly) at what would have been ball four pitches.

Simply put, he doesn’t look comfortable at the plate. Sunday afternoon, Ron Gardenhire stated that Morneau would likely see some time at 1B over the Yankees / Rays road trip, with the implication being that Morneau was out of his comfort zone being a full time DH. Here’s hoping this is the solution, because Morneau’s current iteration is not helping this ballclub right now.



Morneau's strike out rate is well above league average right now. In fact, it's well above his normal average. (Small sample size? Yes. Still a concern? Yes again.)



If Morneau does get some time at 1B over the next two series, that will open up the lineup a little for the Twins and maybe allow for some better defensive positioning. I think nearly every Twins fan will tell you that Josh Willingham is a welcome bat in the lineup but his defense…well, ‘poor’ is a nice way to put it. Willingham has already committed 2 errors on the season and has misplayed many more balls than that. Ideally, the Twins would use Willingham as a full time DH, keeping his bat in the lineup while keeping his subpar glove on the bench.

This would allow Gardenhire to shift Clete Thomas or Trevor Plouffe to LF while creating a platoon of Doumit / Parmelee in RF.

Welcome To Minnesota Clete Thomas!

Thomas proved Sunday, during his sharp fielding of a Michael Young double to assist in throwing Adrian Beltre out at home, that his defense is solid. When he was first acquired, a majority of the baseball writers compared him to Ben Revere. That comparison seems a little inaccurate, however, as Thomas’ first at bat as a Twin nearly cleared the wall in center for a solo home run. After gauging the distance a little better, Thomas put a little extra “oomph” on the ball in his next at bat and sent a 2 run homer OVER the center field wall. I’m pretty sure that’s something Ben Revere will never do as a Twin.

Looking Forward:

The Twins are 2-7 and off to a worse start than last season. That being said, this is a better team (you can tell by just watching them) than last year and they are going through a brutal part of their schedule. They kick off a 4 game series against the Yankees tonight and then a weekend series with the Rays on Friday. The Twins have well documented struggles with the Yankees (especially in New York) and the Rays have played very good ball so far this year.

I’m hoping to see the Twins split the series with the Yankees and then salvage one from the Rays series. That would put them at 5-11 at the start of next week and still very much in position to gain ground once the brutal opening schedule has passed. If the Twins only manage to take one from the Yankees and get swept by the Rays (we’re calling this “worst case scenario”) a 3-13 stat, while not insurmountable, is much more debilitating way to start the season. Essentially, these next two series are going to dictate the momentum of the early season. No pressure guys.

Better yet, let’s sweep the Yankees, take 2 of 3 from the Rays and end this week at 8-8. (We can dream, right?) I’ll be back throughout the week with reactions / opinions on the Twins. Until then, go Twins!